wpa's weekly political brief 120726
TRANSCRIPT
Page 1
WPA’s Weekly Political Brief July 27, 2012
Page 2
WPA’s Weekly Political Brief
As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political
environment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates
every Friday.
In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:
• Direction of the Country
• Obama Job Approval
• National Unemployment
• Obama Approval on the Economy
• Generic Congressional Ballot
• National & per capita debt
• Romney vs. Obama
In addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and
timely new data from that week. This week we have:
• Obama’s approval among key occupations in the economy
• A look at the national gun control debate and its trend over the past 20 years.
• Differences in voter enthusiasm among Republicans, Democrats and Adults overall.
Page 3
Weekly Summary
• Obama holds a one-point lead over Romney on the head to head ballot.
• Obama has seen his approval rating among business owners drop to 35%, and has a majority
disapproval among managers and executives and manufacturing workers (pg. 6).
o Some of the nations most important occupations continue to disapprove of the Obama
presidency as they feel the effects of the economy.
• Following the horrific events in Aurora, CO, the gun control debate was again a major topic in
American culture this week (pg. 12)
o The trend in American opinion on gun laws is to favor ownership rather than control and
previous events such as the Virginia Tech shootings and the Arizona shootings have not
had much affect on overall opinion.
• Voter enthusiasm is higher among Republicans than Democrats (pg. 13).
o A recent Gallup study showed that Republicans are more enthused than Democrats for the
upcoming election
o Democrat enthusiasm has fallen off significantly since 2004 and 2008.
• Republicans are motivated to defeat Barack Obama in November (pg. 14).
o Obama’s 10% approval rating among Republicans is the lowest by an opposite party in the
modern Presidency.
Page 4
More than 60% of Americans continue to feel as though the nation is on the wrong track.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Month Ago One Year Ago
Right Direction 30% 27%
Wrong Track 62% 66%
29% 27% 29% 31% 31% 30% 28% 27%
17% 19%
31% 30% 32%
47%
66% 62% 64% 63% 64% 66% 64%
77% 74%
61% 62% 62%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan
-10
Fe
b-1
0
Ma
r-1
0
Ap
r-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Jun
-10
Jul-1
0
Au
g-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Oct-
10
No
v-1
0
De
c-1
0
Jan
-11
Fe
b-1
1
Ma
r-1
1
Ap
r-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Jun
-11
Jul-1
1
Au
g-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan
-12
Fe
b-1
2
Ma
r-1
2
Ap
r-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Jun
-12
Jul-1
2
Direction of the Country
Right Direction Wrong Track
2010 Election
Page 5
Obama’s job approval remains below 50% for 14th consecutive month.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Week Ago One Month Ago
Approve 46% 47%
Disapprove 48% 50%
46%
52%
44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46%
49%
47%
48% 49%
47% 47%
49%
42%
51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48%
47%
48%
47% 48%
50% 49%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12
Obama Job Approval
Approve Disapprove
Page 6
An analysis of Gallup’s nightly tracking from April to July revealed that some of the most important professional fields have a heavy disapproval of Obama’s Presidency. Business owners in particular have soured on the President, down to only 35% in the second quarter.
47% 43% 43% 35%
6% 6% 5%
6%
47% 51% 52% 59%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
All workers Manufacturingor production
worker
Manager,executive, or
official
Business owner
Disapprove
Unsure
Approve
41%
35%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Q1 Q2
Obama Approval Among Business Owners
Business Owner
Source: Gallup Nightly Tracking April 1-June 30
Page 7
$50,678
$139,559
$15,914,138,522,158
The national debt rose by more than $20 Billion since last week.
Source: USDebtclock.org
U.S. National Debt
Debt Per Citizen
Debt Per Taxpayer
Page 8
41% 42% 43% 42% 45% 44% 43%
41% 43% 41% 41%
46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 45%
41% 46%
43% 43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrat Republican
Republicans have held a lead over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot for over 5 months.
Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains
49% 46% 43% 52% 47% 54% 53%
45%
0%
50%
100%
2004 2006 2008 2010
Previous Election Day Generic Ballots
R+7 seats R+69 seats D+29 seats D+37 seats
Page 9
Only 40% of Americans approve of Obama’s handling of the economy
Source: Pollster.com
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Obama Economic Approval
Approve Disapprove
53%
40%
2010 Election
Page 10
Unemployment remains steadily above 8% at the heart of the election cycle.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
68000 77000 80000
0
25000
50000
75000
100000
125000
150000
April May June
Jobs Created by Month
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
National Unemployment Rate
June, 2012 8.2%
Number of new
jobs needed to
keep pace with
population
growth
Page 11
The race between Obama and Romney remains a dead-heat heading into the final 3 months of the election cycle.
Source: Real Clear Politics
47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 46% 46% 45% 47% 47% 46%
46% 43% 45% 44% 43% 45% 44% 45%
43% 45% 44% 44% 45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun 15-Jun 1-Jul 15-Jul
Obama vs. Romney
Obama Romney
Page 12
The debate regarding gun control was reignited this week with tragic shootings that occurred in Aurora, CO. Pew Research Center’s tracking of gun control opinion shows how Americans have shifted in favor of ownership, and that events like Virginia Tech shootings and the Arizona Shootings do not tend to dictate opinion over the long-term.
34% 30%
33% 29%
37% 38% 42%
37% 32%
42% 37% 45%
46%
46%
49% 48%
47%
49% 57%
65% 62%
66%
55% 57% 54%
58% 60% 55%
58%
49%
46%
50%
46% 47%
49%
45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Gun Ownership vs. Gun Control
Right to Own Guns Control Ownership
Arizona Shootings
Virginia Tech Shootings
Source: Pew Research Center
Page 13
Gallup released new numbers examining voter enthusiasm between Republicans, Democrats and Adults overall. Republicans have rebounded after 2008 while Democrats have fallen significantly. Overall enthusiasm for 2012 stands at 44%, down from 2004 and 2008.
51%
35%
51%
68%
61%
39%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2004 2008 2012
Voter Enthusiasm
Republicans Democrats
59% 62%
64% 65%
48% 50%
62% 64%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
75%
July Aug Sep Oct
Overall Enthusiasm
2004 2008
Source: Gallup Study July 19-22, 2012
Page 14
Republicans are motivated to defeat Barack Obama in November. Obama’s 10% approval rating among Republicans is the lowest by an opposite party in the modern Presidency.
Source: Gallup Data collected during re-election years. Gerald Ford data unavailable.
10%
24% 24%
34%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Obama Clinton Carter Johnson
Democrat Presidential Approval Rating among Republicans
15% 17%
29%
41%
57%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Bush H.W. Bush Reagan Nixon Eisenhower
Republican Presidential Approval Rating among Democrats
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For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact:
Bryon Allen Partner and COO
202.470.6300
E-mail:
Chris Perkins Partner
202.494.3084
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Chris Wilson Partner and CEO
405.286.6500
E-mail:
Ryan Steusloff Vice President
202.470.6300
Matt Gammon Vice President
202.470.6300