monsanto 11-08-07-3

21
1 BRETT BEGEMANN EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT MONSANTO BIENNIAL U.S. INVESTOR DAY NOVEMBER 8, 2007

Upload: finance28

Post on 12-Nov-2014

746 views

Category:

Economy & Finance


0 download

DESCRIPTION

 

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: monsanto 11-08-07-3

1

BRETT BEGEMANNEXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT

MONSANTO BIENNIAL U.S. INVESTOR DAY

NOVEMBER 8, 2007

Page 2: monsanto 11-08-07-3

2

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

2004 2007 2012

Upgrade to Roundup RReady2Yield in Soybeans Contributes to Doubling Gross Profit Over Next Five Years

OVERVIEW

MONSANTO GROSS PROFITGROWTH TARGET

GR

OS

S P

RO

FIT

(IN

MIL

LIO

NS

)

MIL

ES

TO

NE

S

2007Base Gross

Profit: $4,286M

2010Gross margin target: 52-54%

2012 GROWTH RANGEGross profit targeted to double from 2007 through 2012

STRATEGIC PLAYBOOK

Soybeans1. Launch of Roundup

RReady2Yield soybeans2. Continued penetration of

Roundup Ready soybeans in Brazil to create platform for insect-protected Roundup RReady2Yieldsoybeans

3. Launch enhanced modified oils platform

4. Continue to develop and launch pipeline traits with more stacked offerings

ONGOING EPS GROWTH: MID-TO-HIGH TEENS

Page 3: monsanto 11-08-07-3

3

Upgrade to Roundup RReady2Yield Drives U.S. Soybean Seed and Traits Gross Profit Expansion Through 2012

SOYBEANS

U.S. SOYBEAN SEED AND TRAITS GROSS PROFIT BY CHANNELINDEX=2004

2004 2007 2012F

Trait licensing outside Holden’s/Corn States

>2XOVER 2004 INDEX

Page 4: monsanto 11-08-07-3

4

U.S. Soybean Seed Share to Continue to Grow OrganicallySOYBEANS

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2012

U.S. SOYBEAN BRANDED AND LICENSED SEED SHARE

U.S

. SO

YB

EA

N S

EE

D M

AR

KE

T S

HA

RE

(P

ER

CE

NT

AG

E)

ASGROW ASI CORN STATES LICENSEES

TARGET

Page 5: monsanto 11-08-07-3

5

Same Peak Share Expected for Roundup RReady2Yield;Alternative Traits Assumed in Marketplace

SOYBEANS

M A

CR

ES

Source: Company estimates

ASSUMED COMPETITIVE

ACRES ON ALTERNATIVE

PLATFORM

TOTAL 2010+ROUNDUP

RREADY2YIELD ACREAGE

OPPORTUNITY

ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD OPPORTUNITY

2007 ROUNDUP READY

PENETRATION

TOTAL 2010 ROUNDUP READY

OPPORTUNITY

ROUNDUP READY BASELINE

U.S. ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD OPPORTUNITY: BEYOND 20102010 +

• In 2009/2010, Roundup RReady2Yieldstarts to access opportunity of 40- 50M U.S. acres

• Roundup RReady2Yieldbecomes platform for stacking pipeline traits, such as modified oils and high yield

05

1015202530354045505560657075

61M

60-70M 20M

40-50M

Page 6: monsanto 11-08-07-3

6

Preparations Under Way for Large Scale U.S. Launch of Roundup RReady2Yield

SOYBEANS

ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD SOYBEANS: LAUNCH PLANSCROP: Soybeans

OBJECTIVE:Launch Roundup RReady2Yield

2008 STATUS

• Consistent 7-11% yield advantage with Roundup RReady2Yield

• USDA, EPA and FDA approvals received; awaiting key export approvals

• Pre-launch activities under way

PRICING

• Yield improvement shared with grower; average 5 year soybean commodity price approximately $6.40 per bushel1

Branded and licensed seed production

U.S. Full-Scale Launch Target:

5- 6M Acres

Grower level marketing, awareness and trial

Licensee breeding

U.S. Controlled Commercial

Release Target: 1- 2M Acres

2010200920082007

Pursuit of export approvals in Japan, China, Europe and Mexico

Industry coordination and communications • American Soybean Association and key agri-food

stakeholders

P R O J E C T

1. Source: NASS, USDA data 2003 to August 2007

Page 7: monsanto 11-08-07-3

7

Upgrade to Roundup RReady2Yield Expected More than Compensate for Competitive Offerings

SOYBEANS

U.S. SOYBEAN SEED AND TRAITS GROSS PROFIT BY CHANNELINDEX=2004

2004 2007 2012F

Trait licensing outside Holden’s/Corn States

>2XOVER 2004 INDEX

Page 8: monsanto 11-08-07-3

8

Roundup Ready Soybeans Well Established in U.S.; Brazil Mirroring U.S. Penetration Curve

SOYBEANS

ROUNDUP READY SOYBEANS: PENETRATION AS PERCENT OF OPPORTUNITY

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

'96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07U.S. Roundup Ready soybeans Brazil Roundup Ready soybeans

50% penetration in Brazil consistent with U.S. trend in

year four

CROP: Soybeans

OBJECTIVE:

Grow Roundup Readypenetration in Brazil

2008 STATUS

• Brazil Roundup Readysoybean penetration currently at 50% of opportunity

2012 OUTLOOK

• Potential to penetrate 95% of the acres in Brazil at peak, establishing footprint for transition to insect-protected Roundup RReady2Yield soybeans

Brazil Roundup Ready soybeansU.S. Roundup Ready soybeans

Page 9: monsanto 11-08-07-3

9

KEY MARKET ACRES BRAZIL

AVAILABLE MARKET 50-60M

PERCENT PENETRATED 0%Insect-Protected Soybeans

Insect-Protected Soybeans in Development for Heavily Infested Latin America Market

SOYBEANS

CROP: Soybeans

OBJECTIVE:Launch insect-protected soybeans

2008 STATUS

• Insect-protected soybeans in Phase III of development

• Roundup RReady2Yieldtesting in tropical germplasm

2012 OUTLOOK

• Plan to launch as stack in Brazil

• 7-11% yield increase in U.S. germplasm; tropical germplasm testing in progress

• 4%+ yield increase vs. insecticide-treated soybeans

• Growers currently spray twice per season, at cost of $5.70/acre for insecticide and one application1

BENEFITS

50-60M acres in Brazil

50-60M acres infested with lepidopteraninsects in Brazil

ACREAGE OPPORTUNITY

ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD

INSECT-PROTECTED SOYBEANS

LEPIDOPTERAN INSECT INFESTATION

1. Source: Kleffmann AMIS for insecticide cost and FNP Agrianual 2007 for spraying cost

LOW HIGHBRAZIL

AR

GEN

TIN

A

Page 10: monsanto 11-08-07-3

10

Vistive III Builds Off of Vistive Low-Lin Base with Improved Oil Profile

SOYBEANS

CROP: Soybeans

OBJECTIVE: Launch Vistive III

2008 STATUS

• Vistive III in Phase II; lead event continues to meet product composition targets

• Strong food company demand

• Vistive low-lin planted on 1.5M acres in 2007

2012 OUTLOOK

• Vistive III being prepared for launch in channel created by Vistive low-lin

• Bifurcation of soybean market: U.S. serves high-value oil market; South America, greater commodity needs

OIL PROFILE BENEFITS

2007 STATUS

ACREAGE OPPORTUNITY

• < 3% linolenic, zero trans-fat label

1.5M planted acres in U.S.

•Composition target of olive oil; 55-75% oleic, <7% saturates

•60% reduction in saturated fat and transfat

•4-5M•U.S. only

•5-30M•U.S. only

Phase II

RETAIL VALUE/ ACRE

Vistive Low linolenic

<$10

Vistive III •Low linolenic

•Increased oleic

•Low saturates

>$10 -<$30

P R O J E C T

LINOLENIC18:3

LINOLEIC18:2

OLEIC18:1

SATS18:0 / 16:0

Standard Soybean

Target: Vistive III

Page 11: monsanto 11-08-07-3

11

SOYBEANS

Soybean Value Upgraded with Roundup RReady2Yield, Modified Oil Traits and Insect Protection

SOYBEAN UPGRADE UNDER WAY; MARKET SEGMENTATION BY MID NEXT DECADE

BRAZIL SOYBEAN MARKET

VALUE

• Insect-protected Roundup RReady2Yieldbeing launched

•$2.50-$3.00+ per acre for Roundup tolerance plus 7-11% yield

•Insecticide replacement

CROP: Soybeans

OBJECTIVE: Growth via new traits

2008 STATUS

• Roundup Readysoybeans at 95% penetration in U.S., 50% in Brazil

• Roundup RReady2Yieldapproved by USDA, EPA and FDA; key export approvals pending

2012 OUTLOOK

• Five trait stacks in soybeans feasible, with Roundup RReady2Yield as base trait for all

MODIFIED OIL TRAITS

U.S. SOYBEANS: 60-70M ACRE MARKET

BRAZIL SOYBEANS: 50-60M ACRE MARKET

ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD AND INSECT PROTECTED

ROUNDUP READY

ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD

COMPETITIVE PLATFORM

U.S. SOYBEAN MARKET

VALUE

• Roundup RReady2Yieldin market for 2+ years

• Vistive III and other modified oil traits being launched

• $13+/acre for Roundup tolerance plus 7-11% yield

• Oil premium

Page 12: monsanto 11-08-07-3

12

Relative Contribution of U.S. and Ex-U.S. Should Be Consistent in Growing Soybean Seed and Trait Business

SOYBEANS

GLOBAL SOYBEAN SEED AND TRAITS GROSS PROFIT BY GEOGRAPHYINDEX=2004

2004 2007 2012F

U.S.

BRAZIL ROUNDUP READY SOYBEAN

LAUNCHED IN 2004

BRAZIL ROUNDUP READYSOYBEAN AT 50% PENETRATION IN

2007

ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD

PLANTED 2009/2010 IN U.S.; BRAZIL

ROUNDUP READYSOYBEAN FULLY

PENETRATEDINTERNATIONAL

>2XOVER 2004 INDEX

Page 13: monsanto 11-08-07-3

13

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

2004 2007 2012

COTTON

MONSANTO GROSS PROFITGROWTH TARGETS

GR

OS

S P

RO

FIT

(IN

MIL

LIO

NS

)

MIL

ES

TO

NE

S

2007Base Gross Profit:

$4,286M

2010Gross margin target: 52-54%

2012 GROWTH RANGE

Gross profit targeted to double from 2007 through 2012

STRATEGIC PLAYBOOK

Cotton Platform1. Apply breeding technology

to diverse Delta and Pine Land germplasm to restore cotton seed share

2. Drive conversion to second-generation cotton technology in the U.S.

3. Drive conversion to second-generation technology inIndia

Cotton Contributes to Doubling of Gross Profit via Breeding Investment and Conversion to Second-Generation Traits

ONGOING EPS GROWTH: MID-TO-HIGH TEENS

Page 14: monsanto 11-08-07-3

14

Delta and Pine Land Share Loss in 2007 Reinforces Need for Reinvigorated Cotton Breeding Program

COTTON

MA

RK

ET

SH

AR

E

(PLA

NT

ED

AC

RE

BA

SIS

)

DELTA AND PINE LAND U.S. COTTON SEED SHARE1

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

CROP: Cotton

OBJECTIVE:

Restore branded cotton seed share

2008 STATUS

• Delta and Pine Land lost 9 share points in 2007

• Delta and Pine Land’s portfolio only 17% second-generationtraits compared with industry average of 41% in 20072

2012 OUTLOOK

• Cotton seed share restored to 2006 levels

2. Second-generation trait penetration reflects percent of commercial portfolio containing either RoundupReady Flex, Bollgard II or both traits.

1. Source: dmrkynetec – cotton seed study – planted acre basis for new certified seed

Page 15: monsanto 11-08-07-3

15

Delta and Pine Land’s Global Breeding Strategy Focused on Yield and Fiber Improvement

COTTON

U.S. (9)Testing Programs

Breeding Programs

Winter Nurseries

Costa Rica

Brazil

South Africa

India (3)

Greece

Australia

GLOBAL COTTON BREEDING STRATEGYRESOURCES CAPABILITIES OUTLOOK• World’s largest private cotton

breeding program• Strategically located in

pivotal cotton areas• All lines feed into global

testing and introgression program

• ‘Jumpstart’ of up to 3 years over corn in 1990s with established infrastructure

• Labs, IT and markers are ready to go; “plug-and-play” opportunity

• Largest marker collection in the world

• Focus on drought, fiber quality, lint yield and disease resistance

• Novel targets: Diverse germplasm base can lead to new genetic pairings that greatly benefit farmers

Page 16: monsanto 11-08-07-3

16

U.S. Cotton Trait Acres Shift with Total Planted Cotton Acres; Opportunity to Upgrade to Second-Generation

COTTON

M A

CR

ES

U.S. COTTON TRAIT ACRES

0

5

10

15

20

25

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2. Absolute trait acres represents the total number of acres with at least one trait; two traits on one acre one absolute acre

1. Second-generation trait penetration reflects percent of commercial portfolio containing either RoundupReady Flex, Bollgard II or both traits.

CROP: Cotton

OBJECTIVE:Second-generation technology

2008 STATUS

• Nearly 80% of the U.S. planted cotton acres contained at least one Monsanto trait in 2007

• Delta and Pine Land’s portfolio was only 17% second-generation1 traits compared with industry average of 41%

2012 OUTLOOK

• Delta and Pine Land’s portfolio fully converted to second-generation traits in all U.S. segments

AB

SO

LUT

E2

TR

AIT

AC

RE

S

(PE

RC

EN

T O

F TO

TA

L PLA

NT

ED

AC

RE

S)

ROUNDUP READY

ROUNDUP READY FLEX

BOLLGARD

BOLLGARD II

Page 17: monsanto 11-08-07-3

17

Planned Upgrade to Second-Generation Cotton Technology in U.S. Focused on Southern Markets

COTTON

CROP: Cotton

OBJECTIVE:Second-generation technology

2008 STATUS

• Southern Delta region lags at 15% average penetration for second-generation traits

2012 OUTLOOK

• Aggressive breeding strategy to fully convert to Bollgard II by start of 2010 growing season; fully converted to Roundup Ready Flex by 2012

U.S. COTTON SEED BRAND SHARE - 20071

TOTAL46% 17% 45%DELTA AND PINE

LAND86%

1. Source: dmrkynetec – cotton seed study – planted acre basis for new certified seed

46% ROUNDUP READY FLEX15% BOLLGARD II / ROUNDUP READY FLEX

48% BOLLGARD II / ROUNDUP READY FLEX

FOCUS ON SHIFTING SOUTHERN DELTA TRAITED ACRES FROM 15% SECOND-GENERATION TO 100% BY 2012

Page 18: monsanto 11-08-07-3

18

Bollgard Cotton Penetration in India Nearly Doubles in 2007; Creates Platform for Second-Generation Traits

COTTON

BOLLGARD & BOLLGARD II COTTON IN INDIA M ACRES

2004 2005 2006 2007 2012OPPORTUNITY

M A

CR

ES

2007 RETAIL PRICE/ACRE SEED & TRAIT

BOLLGARD BOLLGARD II

$ 18 $22

15-20M

Second-generation technology

OBJECTIVE:

CottonCROP:

• Expect market in India to be fully converted to Bollgard II by 2012

2012 OUTLOOK

• Hybrid market now estimated to be 15-20 million acres in India

2008 STATUS

0

5

10

15

20

25

BOLLGARD II BOLLGARD

Page 19: monsanto 11-08-07-3

19

Launch of Roundup Ready Flex in India Would Further Improve Grower Profitability

COTTON

0

5

10

15

20

25

2007 AT LAUNCH

ROUNDUP READY FLEX OPPORTUNITY IN INDIA

BOLLGARD II

ROUNDUP READY FLEX/BOLLGARD IIBOLLGARD

ROUNDUP READY FLEX TECHNOLOGY

ACRE OPPORTUNITY

EXPECTED BENEFITS

15-20M acres

• Reduces labor costs associated with hand weeding• Reduces fuel associated with mechanical harrowing• Replacement cost for herbicides used by some growers:

~$10/acre

M A

CR

ES

OPPORTUNITY

15-20M

CROP: Cotton

OBJECTIVE:

Launch Roundup Ready Flexin India

2008 STATUS

• Roundup Ready Flex currently launched in the U.S. and Australia

• Approval pending in India; will only be offered as stack with Bollgard II

2012 OUTLOOK

• Roundup Ready Flex has fit on all 15-20M hybrid cotton acres in India; allows India to leapfrog to second-generation technology

Page 20: monsanto 11-08-07-3

20

COTTON

GLOBAL COTTON SEED AND TRAITS GROSS PROFITINDEX=2007

2007 2012F

U.S.

INTERNATIONAL

• In five years, Delta and Pine Land fully contributing with market share and second-generation trait growth

• India becomes a larger player with conversion to second generation traits

• Australia and Brazil are small acre, but important markets

Second-Generation Trait Conversion Accelerates Globally to Expand Gross Profit Contribution of Cotton

1.8XOVER 2007 INDEX

Page 21: monsanto 11-08-07-3

21

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

2004 2007 2012

Given Growth Opportunities, Monsanto Has Potential to More Than Double Gross Profit Over the Next Five Years

OVERVIEW

2012 GROWTH RANGE

Gross profit targeted to double from 2007 through 2012

STRATEGIC PLAYBOOK

All growth is organic, from base business and pipeline

U.S. CornInternational CornSoybeansCottonSeminisR&D Pipeline

Acquisitions to be pursued, but are not included in this growth projectionEarnings continue to translate into operating cash, and value created for shareowners through combination of acquisitions, share repurchases and dividends

MONSANTO GROSS PROFITGROWTH TARGET

GR

OS

S P

RO

FIT

(IN

MIL

LIO

NS

)

MIL

ES

TO

NE

S

2007Base Gross Profit:

$4,286M

2010Gross margin target: 52-54%

ONGOING EPS GROWTH: MID-TO-HIGH TEENS