monsanto 11-08-07-3
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1
BRETT BEGEMANNEXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT
MONSANTO BIENNIAL U.S. INVESTOR DAY
NOVEMBER 8, 2007
2
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
2004 2007 2012
Upgrade to Roundup RReady2Yield in Soybeans Contributes to Doubling Gross Profit Over Next Five Years
OVERVIEW
MONSANTO GROSS PROFITGROWTH TARGET
GR
OS
S P
RO
FIT
(IN
MIL
LIO
NS
)
MIL
ES
TO
NE
S
2007Base Gross
Profit: $4,286M
2010Gross margin target: 52-54%
2012 GROWTH RANGEGross profit targeted to double from 2007 through 2012
STRATEGIC PLAYBOOK
Soybeans1. Launch of Roundup
RReady2Yield soybeans2. Continued penetration of
Roundup Ready soybeans in Brazil to create platform for insect-protected Roundup RReady2Yieldsoybeans
3. Launch enhanced modified oils platform
4. Continue to develop and launch pipeline traits with more stacked offerings
ONGOING EPS GROWTH: MID-TO-HIGH TEENS
3
Upgrade to Roundup RReady2Yield Drives U.S. Soybean Seed and Traits Gross Profit Expansion Through 2012
SOYBEANS
U.S. SOYBEAN SEED AND TRAITS GROSS PROFIT BY CHANNELINDEX=2004
2004 2007 2012F
Trait licensing outside Holden’s/Corn States
>2XOVER 2004 INDEX
4
U.S. Soybean Seed Share to Continue to Grow OrganicallySOYBEANS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2012
U.S. SOYBEAN BRANDED AND LICENSED SEED SHARE
U.S
. SO
YB
EA
N S
EE
D M
AR
KE
T S
HA
RE
(P
ER
CE
NT
AG
E)
ASGROW ASI CORN STATES LICENSEES
TARGET
5
Same Peak Share Expected for Roundup RReady2Yield;Alternative Traits Assumed in Marketplace
SOYBEANS
M A
CR
ES
Source: Company estimates
ASSUMED COMPETITIVE
ACRES ON ALTERNATIVE
PLATFORM
TOTAL 2010+ROUNDUP
RREADY2YIELD ACREAGE
OPPORTUNITY
ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD OPPORTUNITY
2007 ROUNDUP READY
PENETRATION
TOTAL 2010 ROUNDUP READY
OPPORTUNITY
ROUNDUP READY BASELINE
U.S. ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD OPPORTUNITY: BEYOND 20102010 +
• In 2009/2010, Roundup RReady2Yieldstarts to access opportunity of 40- 50M U.S. acres
• Roundup RReady2Yieldbecomes platform for stacking pipeline traits, such as modified oils and high yield
05
1015202530354045505560657075
61M
60-70M 20M
40-50M
6
Preparations Under Way for Large Scale U.S. Launch of Roundup RReady2Yield
SOYBEANS
ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD SOYBEANS: LAUNCH PLANSCROP: Soybeans
OBJECTIVE:Launch Roundup RReady2Yield
2008 STATUS
• Consistent 7-11% yield advantage with Roundup RReady2Yield
• USDA, EPA and FDA approvals received; awaiting key export approvals
• Pre-launch activities under way
PRICING
• Yield improvement shared with grower; average 5 year soybean commodity price approximately $6.40 per bushel1
Branded and licensed seed production
U.S. Full-Scale Launch Target:
5- 6M Acres
Grower level marketing, awareness and trial
Licensee breeding
U.S. Controlled Commercial
Release Target: 1- 2M Acres
2010200920082007
Pursuit of export approvals in Japan, China, Europe and Mexico
Industry coordination and communications • American Soybean Association and key agri-food
stakeholders
P R O J E C T
1. Source: NASS, USDA data 2003 to August 2007
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Upgrade to Roundup RReady2Yield Expected More than Compensate for Competitive Offerings
SOYBEANS
U.S. SOYBEAN SEED AND TRAITS GROSS PROFIT BY CHANNELINDEX=2004
2004 2007 2012F
Trait licensing outside Holden’s/Corn States
>2XOVER 2004 INDEX
8
Roundup Ready Soybeans Well Established in U.S.; Brazil Mirroring U.S. Penetration Curve
SOYBEANS
ROUNDUP READY SOYBEANS: PENETRATION AS PERCENT OF OPPORTUNITY
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
'96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07U.S. Roundup Ready soybeans Brazil Roundup Ready soybeans
50% penetration in Brazil consistent with U.S. trend in
year four
CROP: Soybeans
OBJECTIVE:
Grow Roundup Readypenetration in Brazil
2008 STATUS
• Brazil Roundup Readysoybean penetration currently at 50% of opportunity
2012 OUTLOOK
• Potential to penetrate 95% of the acres in Brazil at peak, establishing footprint for transition to insect-protected Roundup RReady2Yield soybeans
Brazil Roundup Ready soybeansU.S. Roundup Ready soybeans
9
KEY MARKET ACRES BRAZIL
AVAILABLE MARKET 50-60M
PERCENT PENETRATED 0%Insect-Protected Soybeans
Insect-Protected Soybeans in Development for Heavily Infested Latin America Market
SOYBEANS
CROP: Soybeans
OBJECTIVE:Launch insect-protected soybeans
2008 STATUS
• Insect-protected soybeans in Phase III of development
• Roundup RReady2Yieldtesting in tropical germplasm
2012 OUTLOOK
• Plan to launch as stack in Brazil
• 7-11% yield increase in U.S. germplasm; tropical germplasm testing in progress
• 4%+ yield increase vs. insecticide-treated soybeans
• Growers currently spray twice per season, at cost of $5.70/acre for insecticide and one application1
BENEFITS
50-60M acres in Brazil
50-60M acres infested with lepidopteraninsects in Brazil
ACREAGE OPPORTUNITY
ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD
INSECT-PROTECTED SOYBEANS
LEPIDOPTERAN INSECT INFESTATION
1. Source: Kleffmann AMIS for insecticide cost and FNP Agrianual 2007 for spraying cost
LOW HIGHBRAZIL
AR
GEN
TIN
A
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Vistive III Builds Off of Vistive Low-Lin Base with Improved Oil Profile
SOYBEANS
CROP: Soybeans
OBJECTIVE: Launch Vistive III
2008 STATUS
• Vistive III in Phase II; lead event continues to meet product composition targets
• Strong food company demand
• Vistive low-lin planted on 1.5M acres in 2007
2012 OUTLOOK
• Vistive III being prepared for launch in channel created by Vistive low-lin
• Bifurcation of soybean market: U.S. serves high-value oil market; South America, greater commodity needs
OIL PROFILE BENEFITS
2007 STATUS
ACREAGE OPPORTUNITY
• < 3% linolenic, zero trans-fat label
1.5M planted acres in U.S.
•Composition target of olive oil; 55-75% oleic, <7% saturates
•60% reduction in saturated fat and transfat
•4-5M•U.S. only
•5-30M•U.S. only
Phase II
RETAIL VALUE/ ACRE
Vistive Low linolenic
<$10
Vistive III •Low linolenic
•Increased oleic
•Low saturates
>$10 -<$30
P R O J E C T
LINOLENIC18:3
LINOLEIC18:2
OLEIC18:1
SATS18:0 / 16:0
Standard Soybean
Target: Vistive III
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SOYBEANS
Soybean Value Upgraded with Roundup RReady2Yield, Modified Oil Traits and Insect Protection
SOYBEAN UPGRADE UNDER WAY; MARKET SEGMENTATION BY MID NEXT DECADE
BRAZIL SOYBEAN MARKET
VALUE
• Insect-protected Roundup RReady2Yieldbeing launched
•$2.50-$3.00+ per acre for Roundup tolerance plus 7-11% yield
•Insecticide replacement
CROP: Soybeans
OBJECTIVE: Growth via new traits
2008 STATUS
• Roundup Readysoybeans at 95% penetration in U.S., 50% in Brazil
• Roundup RReady2Yieldapproved by USDA, EPA and FDA; key export approvals pending
2012 OUTLOOK
• Five trait stacks in soybeans feasible, with Roundup RReady2Yield as base trait for all
MODIFIED OIL TRAITS
U.S. SOYBEANS: 60-70M ACRE MARKET
BRAZIL SOYBEANS: 50-60M ACRE MARKET
ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD AND INSECT PROTECTED
ROUNDUP READY
ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD
COMPETITIVE PLATFORM
U.S. SOYBEAN MARKET
VALUE
• Roundup RReady2Yieldin market for 2+ years
• Vistive III and other modified oil traits being launched
• $13+/acre for Roundup tolerance plus 7-11% yield
• Oil premium
12
Relative Contribution of U.S. and Ex-U.S. Should Be Consistent in Growing Soybean Seed and Trait Business
SOYBEANS
GLOBAL SOYBEAN SEED AND TRAITS GROSS PROFIT BY GEOGRAPHYINDEX=2004
2004 2007 2012F
U.S.
BRAZIL ROUNDUP READY SOYBEAN
LAUNCHED IN 2004
BRAZIL ROUNDUP READYSOYBEAN AT 50% PENETRATION IN
2007
ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD
PLANTED 2009/2010 IN U.S.; BRAZIL
ROUNDUP READYSOYBEAN FULLY
PENETRATEDINTERNATIONAL
>2XOVER 2004 INDEX
13
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
2004 2007 2012
COTTON
MONSANTO GROSS PROFITGROWTH TARGETS
GR
OS
S P
RO
FIT
(IN
MIL
LIO
NS
)
MIL
ES
TO
NE
S
2007Base Gross Profit:
$4,286M
2010Gross margin target: 52-54%
2012 GROWTH RANGE
Gross profit targeted to double from 2007 through 2012
STRATEGIC PLAYBOOK
Cotton Platform1. Apply breeding technology
to diverse Delta and Pine Land germplasm to restore cotton seed share
2. Drive conversion to second-generation cotton technology in the U.S.
3. Drive conversion to second-generation technology inIndia
Cotton Contributes to Doubling of Gross Profit via Breeding Investment and Conversion to Second-Generation Traits
ONGOING EPS GROWTH: MID-TO-HIGH TEENS
14
Delta and Pine Land Share Loss in 2007 Reinforces Need for Reinvigorated Cotton Breeding Program
COTTON
MA
RK
ET
SH
AR
E
(PLA
NT
ED
AC
RE
BA
SIS
)
DELTA AND PINE LAND U.S. COTTON SEED SHARE1
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
CROP: Cotton
OBJECTIVE:
Restore branded cotton seed share
2008 STATUS
• Delta and Pine Land lost 9 share points in 2007
• Delta and Pine Land’s portfolio only 17% second-generationtraits compared with industry average of 41% in 20072
2012 OUTLOOK
• Cotton seed share restored to 2006 levels
2. Second-generation trait penetration reflects percent of commercial portfolio containing either RoundupReady Flex, Bollgard II or both traits.
1. Source: dmrkynetec – cotton seed study – planted acre basis for new certified seed
15
Delta and Pine Land’s Global Breeding Strategy Focused on Yield and Fiber Improvement
COTTON
U.S. (9)Testing Programs
Breeding Programs
Winter Nurseries
Costa Rica
Brazil
South Africa
India (3)
Greece
Australia
GLOBAL COTTON BREEDING STRATEGYRESOURCES CAPABILITIES OUTLOOK• World’s largest private cotton
breeding program• Strategically located in
pivotal cotton areas• All lines feed into global
testing and introgression program
• ‘Jumpstart’ of up to 3 years over corn in 1990s with established infrastructure
• Labs, IT and markers are ready to go; “plug-and-play” opportunity
• Largest marker collection in the world
• Focus on drought, fiber quality, lint yield and disease resistance
• Novel targets: Diverse germplasm base can lead to new genetic pairings that greatly benefit farmers
16
U.S. Cotton Trait Acres Shift with Total Planted Cotton Acres; Opportunity to Upgrade to Second-Generation
COTTON
M A
CR
ES
U.S. COTTON TRAIT ACRES
0
5
10
15
20
25
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2. Absolute trait acres represents the total number of acres with at least one trait; two traits on one acre one absolute acre
1. Second-generation trait penetration reflects percent of commercial portfolio containing either RoundupReady Flex, Bollgard II or both traits.
CROP: Cotton
OBJECTIVE:Second-generation technology
2008 STATUS
• Nearly 80% of the U.S. planted cotton acres contained at least one Monsanto trait in 2007
• Delta and Pine Land’s portfolio was only 17% second-generation1 traits compared with industry average of 41%
2012 OUTLOOK
• Delta and Pine Land’s portfolio fully converted to second-generation traits in all U.S. segments
AB
SO
LUT
E2
TR
AIT
AC
RE
S
(PE
RC
EN
T O
F TO
TA
L PLA
NT
ED
AC
RE
S)
ROUNDUP READY
ROUNDUP READY FLEX
BOLLGARD
BOLLGARD II
17
Planned Upgrade to Second-Generation Cotton Technology in U.S. Focused on Southern Markets
COTTON
CROP: Cotton
OBJECTIVE:Second-generation technology
2008 STATUS
• Southern Delta region lags at 15% average penetration for second-generation traits
2012 OUTLOOK
• Aggressive breeding strategy to fully convert to Bollgard II by start of 2010 growing season; fully converted to Roundup Ready Flex by 2012
U.S. COTTON SEED BRAND SHARE - 20071
TOTAL46% 17% 45%DELTA AND PINE
LAND86%
1. Source: dmrkynetec – cotton seed study – planted acre basis for new certified seed
46% ROUNDUP READY FLEX15% BOLLGARD II / ROUNDUP READY FLEX
48% BOLLGARD II / ROUNDUP READY FLEX
FOCUS ON SHIFTING SOUTHERN DELTA TRAITED ACRES FROM 15% SECOND-GENERATION TO 100% BY 2012
18
Bollgard Cotton Penetration in India Nearly Doubles in 2007; Creates Platform for Second-Generation Traits
COTTON
BOLLGARD & BOLLGARD II COTTON IN INDIA M ACRES
2004 2005 2006 2007 2012OPPORTUNITY
M A
CR
ES
2007 RETAIL PRICE/ACRE SEED & TRAIT
BOLLGARD BOLLGARD II
$ 18 $22
15-20M
Second-generation technology
OBJECTIVE:
CottonCROP:
• Expect market in India to be fully converted to Bollgard II by 2012
2012 OUTLOOK
• Hybrid market now estimated to be 15-20 million acres in India
2008 STATUS
0
5
10
15
20
25
BOLLGARD II BOLLGARD
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Launch of Roundup Ready Flex in India Would Further Improve Grower Profitability
COTTON
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007 AT LAUNCH
ROUNDUP READY FLEX OPPORTUNITY IN INDIA
BOLLGARD II
ROUNDUP READY FLEX/BOLLGARD IIBOLLGARD
ROUNDUP READY FLEX TECHNOLOGY
ACRE OPPORTUNITY
EXPECTED BENEFITS
15-20M acres
• Reduces labor costs associated with hand weeding• Reduces fuel associated with mechanical harrowing• Replacement cost for herbicides used by some growers:
~$10/acre
M A
CR
ES
OPPORTUNITY
15-20M
CROP: Cotton
OBJECTIVE:
Launch Roundup Ready Flexin India
2008 STATUS
• Roundup Ready Flex currently launched in the U.S. and Australia
• Approval pending in India; will only be offered as stack with Bollgard II
2012 OUTLOOK
• Roundup Ready Flex has fit on all 15-20M hybrid cotton acres in India; allows India to leapfrog to second-generation technology
20
COTTON
GLOBAL COTTON SEED AND TRAITS GROSS PROFITINDEX=2007
2007 2012F
U.S.
INTERNATIONAL
• In five years, Delta and Pine Land fully contributing with market share and second-generation trait growth
• India becomes a larger player with conversion to second generation traits
• Australia and Brazil are small acre, but important markets
Second-Generation Trait Conversion Accelerates Globally to Expand Gross Profit Contribution of Cotton
1.8XOVER 2007 INDEX
21
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
2004 2007 2012
Given Growth Opportunities, Monsanto Has Potential to More Than Double Gross Profit Over the Next Five Years
OVERVIEW
2012 GROWTH RANGE
Gross profit targeted to double from 2007 through 2012
STRATEGIC PLAYBOOK
All growth is organic, from base business and pipeline
U.S. CornInternational CornSoybeansCottonSeminisR&D Pipeline
Acquisitions to be pursued, but are not included in this growth projectionEarnings continue to translate into operating cash, and value created for shareowners through combination of acquisitions, share repurchases and dividends
MONSANTO GROSS PROFITGROWTH TARGET
GR
OS
S P
RO
FIT
(IN
MIL
LIO
NS
)
MIL
ES
TO
NE
S
2007Base Gross Profit:
$4,286M
2010Gross margin target: 52-54%
ONGOING EPS GROWTH: MID-TO-HIGH TEENS