monsanto 11-08-07-2_v2

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1 CARL CASALE EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT MONSANTO BIENNIAL U.S. INVESTOR DAY NOVEMBER 8, 2007

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Page 1: monsanto 11-08-07-2_v2

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CARL CASALEEXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT

MONSANTO BIENNIAL U.S. INVESTOR DAY

NOVEMBER 8, 2007

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Corn Growth Continues, Becoming Increasingly Global with Continued Emphasis On Improving Per-Acre Margins

OVERVIEW

2012 GROWTH RANGEGross profit targeted to double from 2007 through 2012

STRATEGIC PLAYBOOKU.S. CornInternational Corn

1. Grow U.S. seed footprint2. Expand trait penetration

and bridge to SmartStax2010 launch

3. Expand international seed footprint

4. Set the table for biotech trait ramp up outside the U.S.

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

2004 2007 2012

MONSANTO GROSS PROFITGROWTH TARGET

GR

OS

S P

RO

FIT

(IN

MIL

LIO

NS

)

MIL

ES

TO

NE

S

2007Base Gross Profit:

$4,286M

2010Gross margin target: 52-54%

ONGOING EPS GROWTH: MID-TO-HIGH TEENS

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U.S. CORN

U.S. CORN SEED & TRAITS GROSS PROFIT BY CHANNEL INDEX=2004

U.S. Corn Growth Continues Through 2012, Reflecting Differentiated Opportunities Across Commercial Channels

Trait licensing outside Holden’s/Corn States

2004 2007 2012F

>8XOVER 2004 INDEX

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DEKALB’s Performance Accelerated Share Gains Ahead of Schedule; Fundamentals Remain Viable Through 2012

U.S. CORN

2005Monsanto projects 1-2 point

share gains for DEKALB from 2005 through 2010

ORIGINAL 2010 TARGET RANGE

2007DEKALB ends 2007 with 23% share, achieving 2010 target 3 years early

2012 TARGET RANGE

DEKALB U.S. CORN SHARE EVOLUTION: 2001-2012F

DEKALB expected to continue share gains, with cumulative target of as much as 10 points in 5 years

GEOGRAPHY: U.S.OBJECTIVE: Grow footprint2008 STATUS

• DEKALB earned 4 points in 2007 for total share of 23%, doubling its share in 5 years

2012 OUTLOOK

• Grow share through 2012 by up to 10 points cumulatively

10% 12%13%

14%

16%

19%

23%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

30%

32%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

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With Strong Yield Performance, Value of DEKALB Seed Portfolio Continues to Expand

U.S. CORN

DEKALB SEED PORTFOLIO MIX

GEOGRAPHY: U.S.OBJECTIVE: Grow footprint2008 STATUS

• Average retail value in DEKALB’s portfolio increased 20% since 2001

2012 OUTLOOK

Momentum continuing: • 2007 initial results show

DEKALB has 8.3 bu/ac yield advantage over competitors

RE

LAT

IVE

MIX

IN

D

EK

AL

BP

OR

TFO

LIO

$34$36$38$40$42$44

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

CORE HYBRIDS

AV

ER

AG

E R

ET

AIL

P

RIC

E/A

CR

E

New hybrids consistently drive mix and value of DEKALB portfolio

Average Retail Value Of DEKALB Portfolio

NEW HYBRIDSMATURE HYBRIDS

“SWEET SPOT”• Roughly 60% of

DEKALB brand comes from 25 hybrids – all less than 4 years old

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ASI Gross Profit Per Acre Comparable to DEKALB; Growth Accelerating Through End of Decade

U.S. CORN

ASI GROSS PROFIT PER ACREGEOGRAPHY: U.S.OBJECTIVE: Grow footprint2008 STATUS

• ASI includes 24 brands, with differentiated customer experience from DEKALB

• Organic growth of 1 share point in 2007 to bring ASI to 9 points total

2012 OUTLOOK

• Emphasis on organic growth

1

1.85

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

AV

ER

AG

E G

RO

SS

PR

OFI

T/A

CR

E

(IN

DE

XE

D)

GP/acre increases 85% after ASI

acquisition

• With technology infusion, gross profit per acre lifts when seed company brought under ASI umbrella

Average GP/acre in same band as DEKALB

PRE-ACQUISITION

POST-ACQUISITION DEKALB

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Opportunity Exists to Nearly Triple Penetration of Triple-Stack Traits in U.S. By End of Decade

U.S. CORN

U.S

. TR

AIT

AC

RE

S(I

N M

ILLI

ON

S)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

2005 2006 2007 2010F

0

10

20

30

40

50

60 U.S

. TR

IPLE

-ST

AC

K A

CR

ES

(IN M

ILLION

S)

U.S. CORN TRAIT OPPORTUNITY: 2007-2010F

Trait acres reflect the total acres planted with each individual trait. In the case of stacked traits, each absolute acre will be reflected by two or more trait acres.Source: “Monsanto Biotechnology Trait Acreage” available through: monsanto.com/investors/

2007 2010 Opportunity

45-55M

60-70M

80M

45-55MTriple Stack 17.7M

Rootworm Control 20.8MCorn Borer Control 42.4M

57.9MGlyphosate Tolerance

CATALYSTS OF TRIPLE STACK

GROWTHChannel Triple PenetrationDEKALB Supply GuaranteeYield Insurance Program

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Starting in 2010, New Margin Opportunity Created by Upgrade From Triple-Stack Acres To SmartStax

U.S. CORN

GEOGRAPHY: U.S.OBJECTIVE: Expand margin2008 STATUS

• To be sold through DEKALB and ASI; Monsanto also representative for joint third-party licensing of SmartStax through Holden’s/Corn States

2012 OUTLOOK

• SmartStax expected average gross profit per acre greater than gross profit of current-triple stack acre, net of royalties paid and received

DEKALB SEED GROSS PROFIT/ACRE:2007 VS. 2010F

AV

ER

AG

E G

RO

SS

PR

OFI

T/A

CR

E

(IN

DE

XE

D)

2007Indexed Gross Profit: Average

Triple-Stack Acre

2010FIndexed Gross Profit:

Average SmartStax Acre(Net Of Royalties Paid)

SmartStaxincreases the GP potential of DEKALB by 12-15% per acre

1.00

1.15

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

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U.S. CORN

SmartStax Creates Value on Multiple Dimensions; Primary Benefit Is Increased Yield, Both Per-Acre and Total Farm

SmartStax Value: On-Farm

+ Increased Yield (per-acre and on-farm)

YIELD COMPONENT YIELD BENEFIT1

+ Flexibility to increase planting populations

PER-ACRE

Improved consistency: Primary pests

1-2%

Improved protection: Secondary pests

1-2%

ON-FARM

Reduced refuge 3-6%

+ Flexibility to move to one technology platform on-farm

+ Durability

+ Platform for future traits+ Access to superior seed= Total SmartStax Value

1. Yield benefit reflects expected yield benefit above triple-stack standard, on a per-acre and whole-farm basis as noted. Ranges may overlap

Commercial Preparation: Field Data Generation

2006

Focus: Feasibility of full trait integration

YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 FORWARD

2008+

Focus: SmartStax bred into elite germplasm; yield data generation

• Indicates superior rootworm consistency versus triple-stack standard

• Good control of secondary pests

Initial 2007 Results

Testing focused on trait performance, such as consistency of control of targeted pests

Field Testing: 2007

12STATES:

56TRIALS:

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Potential for Refuge Reduction Can Raise Total Farm Yield With Standardized Technology Platform

U.S. CORN

1. Based on reported yield differential refuge vs. traited acres, Central Illinois – Monsanto market research (2007)

2. Based on assumed average triple-stack (YieldGard VT Pro) yields in Illinois

3. Refuge reduction would require regulatory review and approval by the U.S. EPA

SmartStax Value: Refuge Reduction Considerations

U.S. EPA requires set-aside refuge for current single-mode-of-action insect-protected traits in corn

Farmers in Illinois in 2007 reported average 20 bu/acre yield difference between YieldGard VT Triple and refuge acres

80%20%

20 BU/AC1

Yield Differential

Refuge Reduction Benefit Example: 100 Acres In Illinois1,2

Standard 20% Refuge

20 Acres X 20 Bushels

REFUGE LOSS: (400) BU

Reduced Refuge Option3: 10%

10 Acres X 20 Bushels

REFUGE LOSS: (200) BUGAIN OVER CURRENT

REFUGE STANDARD: 200 BU

300 BUGAIN OVER CURRENT REFUGE STANDARD:

(100) BUREFUGE LOSS:

5 Acres X 20 Bushels

Reduced Refuge Option3: 5%

Farmers only access upside if technology platform standardized across farm

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U.S. CORN

By 2010, SmartStax Resets Trait Platform, Changes Competitive Standard and Opens New Acreage Opportunity

2007 Monsanto

Triple-Stack Penetration

Remaining Upside;

Shared with Competitors

Total 2010 Triple-Stack Opportunity

TRIPLE-STACK BASELINE

Acres from Competitors

Not Using SmartStax

Potential Upside from

Refuge Reduction

Total SmartStax

Opportunity

SMARTSTAX OPPORTUNITY

05

10152025303540455055606570

17.7M

27-37M 45-55M (10-15M)

+10-15M

U.S. ACREAGE OPPORTUNITY: SWITCH FROM TRIPLES TO SMARTSTAX IN 2010

60-65MTotal Opportunity

+10-15MCompetitive

45-50MMonsanto Baseline

All acres are in play as superior performance fromSmartStax creates compelling competitive platform

AC

RE

S

(IN

MIL

LIO

NS

)

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U.S. CORN

U.S. CORN SEED & TRAITS GROSS PROFIT BY CHANNEL INDEX=2004

Size of U.S. Gross Profit Opportunity Grows Significantly; Components Shift to Highest-Margin Contributors

Trait licensing outside Holden’s/Corn States

2004 2007 2012F

>8XOVER 2004 INDEX

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International Corn Markets Compare Favorably Against U.S. Market for Value

GEOGRAPHY: InternationalOBJECTIVE: Grow footprint2008 STATUS

• Target of 1 to 2 share point gains in all regions except Brazil, where plan is to stabilize share

2012 OUTLOOK

• Outside the U.S., 70M acres of hybrids in higher-value markets

• Targeted 1-2 share point gains annually in all key countries through 2012

• Brazil targeted to grow after share trait stabilizes in 2008

GENETIC FOOTPRINT: GLOBAL CORN PRODUCTION

157MTOTAL

INTERNATIONAL CORN

439%$0.1B$2029bu/ac

7MIndia

540%$0.2B$28120bu/ac

8MArgentina

430%$0.7B$2957bu/ac

23MBrazil

113%$1.9B$6599bu/ac3

27MEU27

423%$3.2B$44153bu/ac

92MU.S.

2007Share Point

Change

Monsanto Brand Share2

Value Of Corn Seed

Market (U.S. $B)

Average DEKALB

Retail Value

Per Acre(U.S. $)

Average Yield Per

Acre1

2007 Hybrid Market Size1

(Acres)

1. Corn acreage and production; USDA FAS 2007/08 projections report and internal estimates2. Reflects share performance for 2007 planting season; for Brazil and Argentina, reflects 2006-2007 planting season3. Average yield; from 55 bu/acre in Romania to 150 bu/acre in France, Italy

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DEKALB Gained Five Share Points in Four Years in EU27; Highest Share Gain of Any Company

GEOGRAPHY: EuropeOBJECTIVE: Grow footprint2008 STATUS

• Because of demand for higher-yielding hybrids, seed in western Europe most valuable per-acre in the world

2012 OUTLOOK

• DEKALB share in EU27 increased 5% since 2004 –largest gain by any seed company in the region

• Share gains have come without widespread use of biotech traits

INTERNATIONAL CORN

DEKALB EU27 CORN SHARE EVOLUTION: 2002-20071,2,3

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

PIONEER LIMAGRAIN KWS SYNGENTA

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

1. Kleffman Market Research 2. EU27 + Serbia included,

reflecting parameters of market research

3. 2007: new sampling methodology in Italy

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INTERNATIONAL CORN

Continued DEKALB Growth in EU27 to Come From Greater Emphasis on Highest Value Segment

EARLY SILAGE SEGMENT

• Mainly silage market: <85 day RM• Historically led by European breeders• DEKALB initiated significant breeding

investments 4 years agoSEGMENT SHARE 2002 2007

3% 5%

SEGMENT SHARE 2002 2007

SEGMENT SHARE 2002 20079% 17%

10% 23%

MID TO EARLY SEGMENT

• Grain market: 85-100 day RM• Similar to Minnesota – strongest area for

DEKALB in U.S.• DEKALB genetics leading this segment

LATE SEGMENT• Grain market: 100-110 day RM• Similar to Iowa – area of significant U.S.

breeding gains• Highest value segment

CORN MATURITY ZONES: EU 27 GEOGRAPHY

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Brazil Is Turnaround Story; Agroeste Acquisition, Enhanced Focus on Tropical Breeding to Improve Position

GEOGRAPHY: BrazilOBJECTIVE: Grow footprint2008 STATUS

• Acquisition increases focus on high value segment in Brazil

• Agroeste’s solid position in southern region complements existing base

2012 OUTLOOK

• Increased emphasis on breeding in tropical hybrids and access to germplasm from Agroeste to improve position in Brazil

• Potential to accelerate launch of YieldGard Corn Borer

INTERNATIONAL CORN

BRAZIL CORN MARKET COMPOSITION: 2007-2008

► Greater tropical germplasm opportunity

► Larger footprint for trait penetration

► Export opportunity to serve growing economies in China, Russia

► Agroeste provided share strength in the south, gap for DEKALB

► Agroeste mainly uses direct-to-grower model, complementing DEKALB’s distribution; similar to ASI channel in U.S.

Agroeste Opportunity:

Opportunity to Expand Brazil Footprint:

Market share for all segments of Brazilian hybrid corn seed market

PIONEER, 22% SYNGENTA, 12%

DEKALB, 30%

OTHERS, 11%

DOW/ AGROMEN,

15%

AGROESTE, 10%

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COMMERCIAL PLATFORM: 2007-20101

• Reflects technology fit; actual penetration determined by regulatory approvals and competitive share

• Competitors continue to license Monsanto traits in key markets

U.S. 92M 80M 60-70M 45-55MEurope (EU27) 27M 24M 8M 5M

Total Markets 157M 134-139M 96-111M 60-70M

2007 Penetration 43-45% 46-53% 30-35%

2007 HYBRID MARKET

SIZE2

(ACRES)

Brazil 23M 15-20M 15-20M 5MArgentina 8M 9M 7M 5M

India 7M 6M 6M --

Trait Expansion Opportunity Still Early Globally; SmartStax Resets Stage in 2010 and Beyond

INTERNATIONAL CORN

80M Targets marked in green representing countries currently planting or with primary regulatory approval secured for respective trait

1. Market Opportunity reflects total acres where technology is applicable, not necessarily acres projected for penetration by 2010.

2. Corn acreage and production; USDA FAS 2007/08 projections report and internal estimates

GLOBAL MARKET OPPORTUNITY:

CORN TRAITS 2010 VS 2012

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TRAIT PLATFORM: 2010+• SmartStax resets trait opportunities• Acreage reflects potential acres• Competition, penetration and

technology fit being evaluated further for each geography

SmartStax

60-65M15-20M15-20M5-7M5-6M

100-118M

2007 HYBRID MARKET

SIZE1

(ACRES)

U.S. 92MEurope (EU27) 27M

Total Markets 157M

Brazil 23MArgentina 8M

India 7M

Trait Expansion Opportunity Still Early Globally; SmartStaxResets Stage in 2010 and Beyond

INTERNATIONAL CORN

GLOBAL MARKET OPPORTUNITY:CORN TRAITS 2010 VS 2012

1. Corn acreage and production; USDA FAS 2007/08 projections report and internal estimates

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Recent Regulatory Approval in Argentina Opens Door For Stacked Traits; Ramp Up Under Way

CORN TRAIT PENETRATION IN ARGENTINA:ANNUALLY AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL ACRE OPPORTUNITY1GEOGRAPHY: Argentina

OBJECTIVE: Expand margin2008 STATUS

• Roundup Ready/YieldGardCorn Borer received regulatory approval in Argentina end of August 2007

• Local approvals for some stacked hybrids completed

2012 OUTLOOK

• 8 million total corn acres planted in Argentina today; expected to grow to 10 million acres to fill U.S. export gap

INTERNATIONAL CORN

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

PE

RC

EN

T O

F T

RA

IT A

CR

E

OP

PO

RT

UN

ITY

1

1. Percent of total market opportunity reflects the ratio of number of actual acres planted to total trait-acre opportunity identified for each trait2. Forecasted possible trend curve for YieldGard Corn Borer-Roundup Ready stack (YGCB+RR). Based on commercial production planning for

DEKALB brand.

• YieldGard Corn Borer/Roundup Ready stack should change inflection of penetration curve, moving toward peak penetration faster than single traits in Argentina

7MTOTAL OPPORTUNITY

1997INTRODUCED

YieldGard Corn Borer

7MTOTAL OPPORTUNITY

2008FINTRODUCED

YGCB-RR Stack2

9MTOTAL OPPORTUNITY

2001INTRODUCED

Roundup Ready Corn

YEARS FROM COMMERCIAL LAUNCH►

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SmartStax Agreement Creates Step-Change Opportunity in Brazil and Argentina for Insect Control

INSECT CONTROL OPPORTUNITY:SMARTSTAX IN BRAZIL AND ARGENTINAGEOGRAPHY: South

America

OBJECTIVE: Expand margin

2008 STATUS

• SmartStax agreement with Dow is global deal, spanning all geographies where respective traits are registered

2012 OUTLOOK

• Currently evaluating the commercial opportunity for SmartStax in Brazil and Argentina

INTERNATIONAL CORN

BRAZILA

RG

ENTI

NA

CORN PEST ESTIMATED: SOUTH AMERICA

SmartStax Control

ACRES INFESTED

10 M16-18 MCorn Earworm

Sugarcane Corn Borer

Fall Armyworm

10 M16-18 M

4 M20-22 M

ARGENTINABRAZIL

Very Good to Excellent Control

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By 2012, Sustained Momentum in U.S. Corn Combined With International Growth Expands Corn Gross Profit Contribution

SUMMARY

GLOBAL CORN SEED AND TRAITS GROSS PROFIT INDEX=2004

2004 2012F

U.S. Corn Seeds & Traits Gross Profit

International Corn Seeds & Traits Gross Profit

• In 2007, international markets generated more than 25% of gross profit

• By 2012, total gross profit expected to expand significantly with continued penetration of traits globally, conversion to SmartStax and greater seed brand share worldwide

2007

>6XOVER 2004 INDEX