monsanto 11-08-07-2_v2
TRANSCRIPT
1
CARL CASALEEXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT
MONSANTO BIENNIAL U.S. INVESTOR DAY
NOVEMBER 8, 2007
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Corn Growth Continues, Becoming Increasingly Global with Continued Emphasis On Improving Per-Acre Margins
OVERVIEW
2012 GROWTH RANGEGross profit targeted to double from 2007 through 2012
STRATEGIC PLAYBOOKU.S. CornInternational Corn
1. Grow U.S. seed footprint2. Expand trait penetration
and bridge to SmartStax2010 launch
3. Expand international seed footprint
4. Set the table for biotech trait ramp up outside the U.S.
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
2004 2007 2012
MONSANTO GROSS PROFITGROWTH TARGET
GR
OS
S P
RO
FIT
(IN
MIL
LIO
NS
)
MIL
ES
TO
NE
S
2007Base Gross Profit:
$4,286M
2010Gross margin target: 52-54%
ONGOING EPS GROWTH: MID-TO-HIGH TEENS
3
U.S. CORN
U.S. CORN SEED & TRAITS GROSS PROFIT BY CHANNEL INDEX=2004
U.S. Corn Growth Continues Through 2012, Reflecting Differentiated Opportunities Across Commercial Channels
Trait licensing outside Holden’s/Corn States
2004 2007 2012F
>8XOVER 2004 INDEX
4
DEKALB’s Performance Accelerated Share Gains Ahead of Schedule; Fundamentals Remain Viable Through 2012
U.S. CORN
2005Monsanto projects 1-2 point
share gains for DEKALB from 2005 through 2010
ORIGINAL 2010 TARGET RANGE
2007DEKALB ends 2007 with 23% share, achieving 2010 target 3 years early
2012 TARGET RANGE
DEKALB U.S. CORN SHARE EVOLUTION: 2001-2012F
DEKALB expected to continue share gains, with cumulative target of as much as 10 points in 5 years
GEOGRAPHY: U.S.OBJECTIVE: Grow footprint2008 STATUS
• DEKALB earned 4 points in 2007 for total share of 23%, doubling its share in 5 years
2012 OUTLOOK
• Grow share through 2012 by up to 10 points cumulatively
10% 12%13%
14%
16%
19%
23%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
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With Strong Yield Performance, Value of DEKALB Seed Portfolio Continues to Expand
U.S. CORN
DEKALB SEED PORTFOLIO MIX
GEOGRAPHY: U.S.OBJECTIVE: Grow footprint2008 STATUS
• Average retail value in DEKALB’s portfolio increased 20% since 2001
2012 OUTLOOK
Momentum continuing: • 2007 initial results show
DEKALB has 8.3 bu/ac yield advantage over competitors
RE
LAT
IVE
MIX
IN
D
EK
AL
BP
OR
TFO
LIO
$34$36$38$40$42$44
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
CORE HYBRIDS
AV
ER
AG
E R
ET
AIL
P
RIC
E/A
CR
E
New hybrids consistently drive mix and value of DEKALB portfolio
Average Retail Value Of DEKALB Portfolio
NEW HYBRIDSMATURE HYBRIDS
“SWEET SPOT”• Roughly 60% of
DEKALB brand comes from 25 hybrids – all less than 4 years old
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ASI Gross Profit Per Acre Comparable to DEKALB; Growth Accelerating Through End of Decade
U.S. CORN
ASI GROSS PROFIT PER ACREGEOGRAPHY: U.S.OBJECTIVE: Grow footprint2008 STATUS
• ASI includes 24 brands, with differentiated customer experience from DEKALB
• Organic growth of 1 share point in 2007 to bring ASI to 9 points total
2012 OUTLOOK
• Emphasis on organic growth
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1.85
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
AV
ER
AG
E G
RO
SS
PR
OFI
T/A
CR
E
(IN
DE
XE
D)
GP/acre increases 85% after ASI
acquisition
• With technology infusion, gross profit per acre lifts when seed company brought under ASI umbrella
Average GP/acre in same band as DEKALB
PRE-ACQUISITION
POST-ACQUISITION DEKALB
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Opportunity Exists to Nearly Triple Penetration of Triple-Stack Traits in U.S. By End of Decade
U.S. CORN
U.S
. TR
AIT
AC
RE
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N M
ILLI
ON
S)
0
20
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2005 2006 2007 2010F
0
10
20
30
40
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60 U.S
. TR
IPLE
-ST
AC
K A
CR
ES
(IN M
ILLION
S)
U.S. CORN TRAIT OPPORTUNITY: 2007-2010F
Trait acres reflect the total acres planted with each individual trait. In the case of stacked traits, each absolute acre will be reflected by two or more trait acres.Source: “Monsanto Biotechnology Trait Acreage” available through: monsanto.com/investors/
2007 2010 Opportunity
45-55M
60-70M
80M
45-55MTriple Stack 17.7M
Rootworm Control 20.8MCorn Borer Control 42.4M
57.9MGlyphosate Tolerance
CATALYSTS OF TRIPLE STACK
GROWTHChannel Triple PenetrationDEKALB Supply GuaranteeYield Insurance Program
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Starting in 2010, New Margin Opportunity Created by Upgrade From Triple-Stack Acres To SmartStax
U.S. CORN
GEOGRAPHY: U.S.OBJECTIVE: Expand margin2008 STATUS
• To be sold through DEKALB and ASI; Monsanto also representative for joint third-party licensing of SmartStax through Holden’s/Corn States
2012 OUTLOOK
• SmartStax expected average gross profit per acre greater than gross profit of current-triple stack acre, net of royalties paid and received
DEKALB SEED GROSS PROFIT/ACRE:2007 VS. 2010F
AV
ER
AG
E G
RO
SS
PR
OFI
T/A
CR
E
(IN
DE
XE
D)
2007Indexed Gross Profit: Average
Triple-Stack Acre
2010FIndexed Gross Profit:
Average SmartStax Acre(Net Of Royalties Paid)
SmartStaxincreases the GP potential of DEKALB by 12-15% per acre
1.00
1.15
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
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U.S. CORN
SmartStax Creates Value on Multiple Dimensions; Primary Benefit Is Increased Yield, Both Per-Acre and Total Farm
SmartStax Value: On-Farm
+ Increased Yield (per-acre and on-farm)
YIELD COMPONENT YIELD BENEFIT1
+ Flexibility to increase planting populations
PER-ACRE
Improved consistency: Primary pests
1-2%
Improved protection: Secondary pests
1-2%
ON-FARM
Reduced refuge 3-6%
+ Flexibility to move to one technology platform on-farm
+ Durability
+ Platform for future traits+ Access to superior seed= Total SmartStax Value
1. Yield benefit reflects expected yield benefit above triple-stack standard, on a per-acre and whole-farm basis as noted. Ranges may overlap
Commercial Preparation: Field Data Generation
2006
Focus: Feasibility of full trait integration
YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 FORWARD
2008+
Focus: SmartStax bred into elite germplasm; yield data generation
• Indicates superior rootworm consistency versus triple-stack standard
• Good control of secondary pests
Initial 2007 Results
Testing focused on trait performance, such as consistency of control of targeted pests
Field Testing: 2007
12STATES:
56TRIALS:
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Potential for Refuge Reduction Can Raise Total Farm Yield With Standardized Technology Platform
U.S. CORN
1. Based on reported yield differential refuge vs. traited acres, Central Illinois – Monsanto market research (2007)
2. Based on assumed average triple-stack (YieldGard VT Pro) yields in Illinois
3. Refuge reduction would require regulatory review and approval by the U.S. EPA
SmartStax Value: Refuge Reduction Considerations
U.S. EPA requires set-aside refuge for current single-mode-of-action insect-protected traits in corn
Farmers in Illinois in 2007 reported average 20 bu/acre yield difference between YieldGard VT Triple and refuge acres
80%20%
20 BU/AC1
Yield Differential
Refuge Reduction Benefit Example: 100 Acres In Illinois1,2
Standard 20% Refuge
20 Acres X 20 Bushels
REFUGE LOSS: (400) BU
Reduced Refuge Option3: 10%
10 Acres X 20 Bushels
REFUGE LOSS: (200) BUGAIN OVER CURRENT
REFUGE STANDARD: 200 BU
300 BUGAIN OVER CURRENT REFUGE STANDARD:
(100) BUREFUGE LOSS:
5 Acres X 20 Bushels
Reduced Refuge Option3: 5%
Farmers only access upside if technology platform standardized across farm
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U.S. CORN
By 2010, SmartStax Resets Trait Platform, Changes Competitive Standard and Opens New Acreage Opportunity
2007 Monsanto
Triple-Stack Penetration
Remaining Upside;
Shared with Competitors
Total 2010 Triple-Stack Opportunity
TRIPLE-STACK BASELINE
Acres from Competitors
Not Using SmartStax
Potential Upside from
Refuge Reduction
Total SmartStax
Opportunity
SMARTSTAX OPPORTUNITY
05
10152025303540455055606570
17.7M
27-37M 45-55M (10-15M)
+10-15M
U.S. ACREAGE OPPORTUNITY: SWITCH FROM TRIPLES TO SMARTSTAX IN 2010
60-65MTotal Opportunity
+10-15MCompetitive
45-50MMonsanto Baseline
All acres are in play as superior performance fromSmartStax creates compelling competitive platform
AC
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S
(IN
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U.S. CORN
U.S. CORN SEED & TRAITS GROSS PROFIT BY CHANNEL INDEX=2004
Size of U.S. Gross Profit Opportunity Grows Significantly; Components Shift to Highest-Margin Contributors
Trait licensing outside Holden’s/Corn States
2004 2007 2012F
>8XOVER 2004 INDEX
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International Corn Markets Compare Favorably Against U.S. Market for Value
GEOGRAPHY: InternationalOBJECTIVE: Grow footprint2008 STATUS
• Target of 1 to 2 share point gains in all regions except Brazil, where plan is to stabilize share
2012 OUTLOOK
• Outside the U.S., 70M acres of hybrids in higher-value markets
• Targeted 1-2 share point gains annually in all key countries through 2012
• Brazil targeted to grow after share trait stabilizes in 2008
GENETIC FOOTPRINT: GLOBAL CORN PRODUCTION
157MTOTAL
INTERNATIONAL CORN
439%$0.1B$2029bu/ac
7MIndia
540%$0.2B$28120bu/ac
8MArgentina
430%$0.7B$2957bu/ac
23MBrazil
113%$1.9B$6599bu/ac3
27MEU27
423%$3.2B$44153bu/ac
92MU.S.
2007Share Point
Change
Monsanto Brand Share2
Value Of Corn Seed
Market (U.S. $B)
Average DEKALB
Retail Value
Per Acre(U.S. $)
Average Yield Per
Acre1
2007 Hybrid Market Size1
(Acres)
1. Corn acreage and production; USDA FAS 2007/08 projections report and internal estimates2. Reflects share performance for 2007 planting season; for Brazil and Argentina, reflects 2006-2007 planting season3. Average yield; from 55 bu/acre in Romania to 150 bu/acre in France, Italy
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DEKALB Gained Five Share Points in Four Years in EU27; Highest Share Gain of Any Company
GEOGRAPHY: EuropeOBJECTIVE: Grow footprint2008 STATUS
• Because of demand for higher-yielding hybrids, seed in western Europe most valuable per-acre in the world
2012 OUTLOOK
• DEKALB share in EU27 increased 5% since 2004 –largest gain by any seed company in the region
• Share gains have come without widespread use of biotech traits
INTERNATIONAL CORN
DEKALB EU27 CORN SHARE EVOLUTION: 2002-20071,2,3
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
PIONEER LIMAGRAIN KWS SYNGENTA
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
1. Kleffman Market Research 2. EU27 + Serbia included,
reflecting parameters of market research
3. 2007: new sampling methodology in Italy
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INTERNATIONAL CORN
Continued DEKALB Growth in EU27 to Come From Greater Emphasis on Highest Value Segment
EARLY SILAGE SEGMENT
• Mainly silage market: <85 day RM• Historically led by European breeders• DEKALB initiated significant breeding
investments 4 years agoSEGMENT SHARE 2002 2007
3% 5%
SEGMENT SHARE 2002 2007
SEGMENT SHARE 2002 20079% 17%
10% 23%
MID TO EARLY SEGMENT
• Grain market: 85-100 day RM• Similar to Minnesota – strongest area for
DEKALB in U.S.• DEKALB genetics leading this segment
LATE SEGMENT• Grain market: 100-110 day RM• Similar to Iowa – area of significant U.S.
breeding gains• Highest value segment
CORN MATURITY ZONES: EU 27 GEOGRAPHY
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Brazil Is Turnaround Story; Agroeste Acquisition, Enhanced Focus on Tropical Breeding to Improve Position
GEOGRAPHY: BrazilOBJECTIVE: Grow footprint2008 STATUS
• Acquisition increases focus on high value segment in Brazil
• Agroeste’s solid position in southern region complements existing base
2012 OUTLOOK
• Increased emphasis on breeding in tropical hybrids and access to germplasm from Agroeste to improve position in Brazil
• Potential to accelerate launch of YieldGard Corn Borer
INTERNATIONAL CORN
BRAZIL CORN MARKET COMPOSITION: 2007-2008
► Greater tropical germplasm opportunity
► Larger footprint for trait penetration
► Export opportunity to serve growing economies in China, Russia
► Agroeste provided share strength in the south, gap for DEKALB
► Agroeste mainly uses direct-to-grower model, complementing DEKALB’s distribution; similar to ASI channel in U.S.
Agroeste Opportunity:
Opportunity to Expand Brazil Footprint:
Market share for all segments of Brazilian hybrid corn seed market
PIONEER, 22% SYNGENTA, 12%
DEKALB, 30%
OTHERS, 11%
DOW/ AGROMEN,
15%
AGROESTE, 10%
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COMMERCIAL PLATFORM: 2007-20101
• Reflects technology fit; actual penetration determined by regulatory approvals and competitive share
• Competitors continue to license Monsanto traits in key markets
U.S. 92M 80M 60-70M 45-55MEurope (EU27) 27M 24M 8M 5M
Total Markets 157M 134-139M 96-111M 60-70M
2007 Penetration 43-45% 46-53% 30-35%
2007 HYBRID MARKET
SIZE2
(ACRES)
Brazil 23M 15-20M 15-20M 5MArgentina 8M 9M 7M 5M
India 7M 6M 6M --
Trait Expansion Opportunity Still Early Globally; SmartStax Resets Stage in 2010 and Beyond
INTERNATIONAL CORN
80M Targets marked in green representing countries currently planting or with primary regulatory approval secured for respective trait
1. Market Opportunity reflects total acres where technology is applicable, not necessarily acres projected for penetration by 2010.
2. Corn acreage and production; USDA FAS 2007/08 projections report and internal estimates
GLOBAL MARKET OPPORTUNITY:
CORN TRAITS 2010 VS 2012
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TRAIT PLATFORM: 2010+• SmartStax resets trait opportunities• Acreage reflects potential acres• Competition, penetration and
technology fit being evaluated further for each geography
SmartStax
60-65M15-20M15-20M5-7M5-6M
100-118M
2007 HYBRID MARKET
SIZE1
(ACRES)
U.S. 92MEurope (EU27) 27M
Total Markets 157M
Brazil 23MArgentina 8M
India 7M
Trait Expansion Opportunity Still Early Globally; SmartStaxResets Stage in 2010 and Beyond
INTERNATIONAL CORN
GLOBAL MARKET OPPORTUNITY:CORN TRAITS 2010 VS 2012
1. Corn acreage and production; USDA FAS 2007/08 projections report and internal estimates
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Recent Regulatory Approval in Argentina Opens Door For Stacked Traits; Ramp Up Under Way
CORN TRAIT PENETRATION IN ARGENTINA:ANNUALLY AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL ACRE OPPORTUNITY1GEOGRAPHY: Argentina
OBJECTIVE: Expand margin2008 STATUS
• Roundup Ready/YieldGardCorn Borer received regulatory approval in Argentina end of August 2007
• Local approvals for some stacked hybrids completed
2012 OUTLOOK
• 8 million total corn acres planted in Argentina today; expected to grow to 10 million acres to fill U.S. export gap
INTERNATIONAL CORN
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
PE
RC
EN
T O
F T
RA
IT A
CR
E
OP
PO
RT
UN
ITY
1
1. Percent of total market opportunity reflects the ratio of number of actual acres planted to total trait-acre opportunity identified for each trait2. Forecasted possible trend curve for YieldGard Corn Borer-Roundup Ready stack (YGCB+RR). Based on commercial production planning for
DEKALB brand.
• YieldGard Corn Borer/Roundup Ready stack should change inflection of penetration curve, moving toward peak penetration faster than single traits in Argentina
7MTOTAL OPPORTUNITY
1997INTRODUCED
YieldGard Corn Borer
7MTOTAL OPPORTUNITY
2008FINTRODUCED
YGCB-RR Stack2
9MTOTAL OPPORTUNITY
2001INTRODUCED
Roundup Ready Corn
YEARS FROM COMMERCIAL LAUNCH►
20
SmartStax Agreement Creates Step-Change Opportunity in Brazil and Argentina for Insect Control
INSECT CONTROL OPPORTUNITY:SMARTSTAX IN BRAZIL AND ARGENTINAGEOGRAPHY: South
America
OBJECTIVE: Expand margin
2008 STATUS
• SmartStax agreement with Dow is global deal, spanning all geographies where respective traits are registered
2012 OUTLOOK
• Currently evaluating the commercial opportunity for SmartStax in Brazil and Argentina
INTERNATIONAL CORN
BRAZILA
RG
ENTI
NA
CORN PEST ESTIMATED: SOUTH AMERICA
SmartStax Control
ACRES INFESTED
10 M16-18 MCorn Earworm
Sugarcane Corn Borer
Fall Armyworm
10 M16-18 M
4 M20-22 M
ARGENTINABRAZIL
Very Good to Excellent Control
21
By 2012, Sustained Momentum in U.S. Corn Combined With International Growth Expands Corn Gross Profit Contribution
SUMMARY
GLOBAL CORN SEED AND TRAITS GROSS PROFIT INDEX=2004
2004 2012F
U.S. Corn Seeds & Traits Gross Profit
International Corn Seeds & Traits Gross Profit
• In 2007, international markets generated more than 25% of gross profit
• By 2012, total gross profit expected to expand significantly with continued penetration of traits globally, conversion to SmartStax and greater seed brand share worldwide
2007
>6XOVER 2004 INDEX