monsanto 05-15-08

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BMO CAPITAL MARKETS CARL CASALE EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, STRATEGY AND OPERATIONS MAY 15, 2008

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  • 1. BMO CAPITAL MARKETSCARL CASALE EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, STRATEGY AND OPERATIONS MAY 15, 2008

2. Forward-Looking StatementsCertain statements contained in this presentation are quot;forward-looking statements,quot; such as statements concerning the company's anticipated financial results, current and future product performance, regulatory approvals, business and financial plans and other non-historical facts. These statements are based on current expectations and currently available information. However, since these statements are based on factors that involve risks and uncertainties, the company's actual performance and results may differ materially from those described or implied by such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, among others: continued competition in seeds, traits and agricultural chemicals; the company's exposure to various contingencies, including those related to intellectual property protection, regulatory compliance and the speed with which approvals are received, and public acceptance of biotechnology products; the success of the company's research and development activities; the outcomes of major lawsuits; developments related to foreign currencies and economies; successful operation of recent acquisitions; fluctuations in commodity prices; compliance with regulations affecting our manufacturing; the accuracy of the company's estimates related to distribution inventory levels; the company's ability to fund its short-term financing needs and to obtain payment for the products that it sells; the effect of weather conditions, natural disasters and accidents on the agriculture business or the company's facilities; and other risks and factors detailed in the company's most recent reports on Forms 10-Q and 10-K. Undue reliance should not be placed on these forward- looking statements, which are current only as of the date of this presentation. The company disclaims any current intention or obligation to update any forward-looking statements or any of the factors that may affect actual results.Trademarks Trademarks owned by Monsanto Company and its wholly-owned subsidiaries are italicized in this presentation. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. 2008 Monsanto Company 3. Non-GAAP Financial InformationThis presentation may use the non-GAAP financial measures of free cash flow, and earnings per share (EPS) on an ongoing basis. We define free cash flow as the total of cash flows from operating activities and investing activities. A non-GAAP EPS financial measure, which we refer to as on-going EPS, excludes certain after-tax items that we do not consider part of ongoing operations, which are identified in the reconciliation. ROC means net income (without the effect of certain items) exclusive of after-tax interest expenses, divided by the average of the beginning year and ending year net capital employed, as defined in the reconciliation. Our presentation of non- GAAP financial measures is intended to supplement investors understanding of our operating performance. These non-GAAP financial measures are not intended to replace net income (loss), cash flows, financial position, or comprehensive income (loss), as determined in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States. Furthermore, these non-GAAP financial measures may not be comparable to similar measures used by other companies. The non-GAAP financial measures used in this presentation are reconciled to the most directly comparable financial measures calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP, which can be found at the end of this presentation.3 4. OVERVIEWMarket Forces Are Changing Supply-Demand Patterns Globally, Creating a New Dynamic Across AgricultureEMERGENCE OF DEMAND-DRIVEN AGRICULTURE:STATE OF AGRICULTURE:NEW DEMAND AND PRODUCTION TRENDSThe New Demand Environment FACTORS:Growing wealth Expanding ethanol INCREASING PROTEINand population in and exportDEMANDAsia creates newdemands favor U.S.demand for as low-cost corn Wealth drives meatimported grainproducerconsumption changingfeed demand ASCENSION OF CHINAChinas growth is reachinglimits of domesticproduction, driving hugechanges in export environmentBrazil exploits landArgentina ESTABLISHMENT OFavailability advantageleverages to become BIOFUELSgeographiccommodity soy proximity to Assuming only base-caseproducer to meet supply corn to demand from China adoption of biofuels, moreLatin Americacorn and soy needed in nextdecade4 5. OVERVIEW Even with Record Corn Prices Spurring Planting, Global Corn Production Per Acre Is Sub-Optimized TodayGLOBAL CORN PRODUCTION1: YIELDCORE PRODUCTIVITY MEASURES AND EVALUATIONBoosting yield-per-acre can make ameaningful differencein supply-demand CANADAenvironment EU 27 3M ACRES 136 BU/AC 500M BUSHELS27M ACRES If India, Mexico and 90% HYBRID U.S. Brazil moved to 100 99 BU/ACCHINA 2B BUSHELSbushel per acre yields, 90M ACRES 151 BU/AC 69M ACRESthey could produceMEXICO 13B BUSHELS 83 BU/AC 6B BUSHELS nearly 4 billion18M ACRESadditional bushels of 25% HYBRID INDIA48 BU/AC BRAZIL corn annually equal to 900M BUSHELS 20M ACRES 36M ACREStotal world corn exports45% HYBRID 75% HYBRID32 BU/ACin 2007. 58 BU/AC 700M BUSHELS 2B BUSHELS If the EU27 and Braziladopted the corn-borer ARGENTINAresistant biotech trait, 10M ACRESthey would have the 111 BU/AC 900M BUSHELSpotential to increaseyields by almost 200 Optimization of yield per acre million bushels theamount used by U.S.food companies assweeteners in 2007.Poor/SubsistenceSub-Optimized Optimized 1. Source: USDA FAS and internal estimates. 6. OVERVIEW Monsanto Has Created and Is Extending Its Leadership Through InnovationMonsanto StrategyMONSANTOS FINANCIAL INDICATORS: Monsanto is an innovation- GROSS PROFIT BY SEGMENT AND ONGOING EPS FY04 TO FY08F FY08F:driven R & D based company $4,000$3.50$3.15 -$3.25 in Agriculture that createsAg Productivity value through improvedGross Profit $3,500$3.00Seeds & Genomics yields and seedGross Profit performance. (in $ millions) $3,000 Ongoing EPS$2.50 Ongoing EPSGross Profit SIX GROWTH DRIVERS $2,500$2.00 U.S. Corn $2,000$1.50 International Corn $1,500$1.00 Soybeans $1,000$0.50 Cotton$500 $0.00 Vegetables2004 2005 2006 2007 2008F R & D Pipeline Leadership extends as we2004-2008F: 41% CAGR in EPS deliver four game-changingdriven by growth of Seeds & technologies between now Genomics segment, where innovative and the middle of the next solutions translate into seed share decade. gains and trait penetration globally 6 7. OVERVIEW Foundation of Seeds and Traits Creates UnmatchedCapabilities in AgCREATION OF UNMATCHED SEED BASEMonsantos Strategy Transforms Agriculture EXTENDING LEADERSHIP CREATING LEADERSHIP 1996 to 2007: BUILD SEED BASE2008 to 2012: INTENSIFY & EXPAND BASE 1996: 1997: 1998:2005: 2004 to 2006:2007:2008: Acquired AcquiredAcquired Acquired Created ASI & AcquiredAnnouncedAsgrow Holdens DEKALB, Seminis Acquired 25 Delta &intent to Foundation Cargill Intl Regional Corn Pine Land acquire DeSeeds Inc. and Corn Seed & Soybean and Ruiter Seeds Corn StatesSeed AgroEsteCompanies DEVELOPMENT OF GAME-CHANGING BIOTECH TRAITSMonsantos Strategy Transforms Agriculture EXTENDING LEADERSHIP CREATING LEADERSHIP 2008 to 2012:FOCUS ON TRAITS TO 1996 to 2007:FOCUS ON TRAITS TO PROTECT YIELDENHANCE YIELD2009: 2010: ~2012:~2014:1997:1998:1996:2006: 2005: 2003: Roundup Roundup Roundup YieldGard Triple- Bollgard II Roundup SmartStax First Nitrogen- Ready 2corn GenerationUtilization ReadyReadyReady Rootworm stack RoundupYieldDrought Cornsoybeans, Cotton andCorn Ready corn Flex soybeans,Tolerant Bollgard YieldGard YieldGardCorn Cotton CornBorer Cotton VT PRO 7 8. CREATING LEADERSHIPMonsanto Has Portfolio Balance That Carries Between Crops Even as Planted Acres FluctuatePORTFOLIO BALANCE:STATE OF AGRICULTURE:INDEXED GROSS PROFIT FOR MONSANTO-BRANDED CROP OFFERINGS Portfolio Balance 1.2 In 2008, for every 1 million 1.00acres that shift between 10.94 soybeans and corn or cotton, on average, there 0.8 is an estimated $0.01 EPS change for Monsanto 0.6 0.47 With brands in corn, cotton and soybeans, 0.4 Monsanto is positioned to meet demand regardless 0.2 of crop planting patterns in any given year 0 With the 2009 controlled CORN COTTONSOYBEANS commercial release of Roundup Ready 2 Yield 2008 U.S. TRAIT 1.6 1.4 0.95 PENETRATION and the 2010 launch ofALL CHANNELS SmartStax this dynamic portfolio will be re- balanced8 9. CREATING LEADERSHIP DEKALB and ASI Gain Share as Investment in BreedingDelivers Yield AdvantageU.S. CORNDEKALB AND ASI U.S. CORN SHARE EVOLUTION:2001-2008F STATUS30% In June 2007, announced 3- DEKALB Brand Share U.S. year, $610M plan to expand 25 - 26%ASI Share U.S. and build seed facilities in 25% the U.S. In 2008, plan has been 23%20% accelerated to reflect 20% growth in DEKALB and ASI15% combined with continued 16% growth expectations10 - 11% 14%9% through 201213%10% 12% Outlook to 2012: 10% 5% DEKALB to grow share5%4% through 2012 by up to 10 points cumulatively from 2007 share of 23 percent0% Continued organic share 2001 2002 2003 20042005 2006 20072008F growth in ASI2008F Projecting 2-3% share gains for DEKALB and 1-2% share gains for ASI9 10. CREATING LEADERSHIP2008 Triple Penetration Ahead of Expectations, Setting Stage for SmartStax LaunchU.S. CORN TRAIT OPPORTUNITY: 2005-2010F 60220200U.S. TRIPLE-STACK ACRES 50180 U.S. TRAIT ACRES (IN MILLIONS)160(IN MILLIONS) 40140120 3010080 206040 1020 00 2008F 20102005 2006 2007 20082010F 2007OpportunityORIGINALQ2OUTLOOK UPDATERootworm Control45-55M 20.8M26-28M 27-29MCorn Borer Control 60-70M 42.4M40-42M 40-42M Glyphosate Tolerance 80M 57.9M63-65M 65-67MTriple Stack 17.6M25-27M 26-28M45-55M Trait acres reflect the total acres planted with each individual trait. In the case of stacked traits, each absoluteacre will be reflected by two or more trait acres. 10 11. CREATING LEADERSHIP Leading Brand Share Positions in Corn in Brazil and ArgentinaProvide Footprint for New Trait LaunchesInternational CornArgentina & GEOGRAPHY:BrazilLATIN AMERICA: SEED FOOTPRINTExpandARGENTINABRAZILinternational OBJECTIVE: footprint20072008F 20072008F 2008 STATUS (06/07 SEASON) (07/08 SEASON) (06/07 SEASON) (07/08 SEASON) Expected to grow 5 share8M1 10M1 23M27M points in a market that isHYBRID ACRES 25 percent larger than in 2007 in Argentina 40%45%40%40%MONSANTO DEKALB and Agroeste SHARE combined are forecasted to be flat with 2007 inAVG. RETAIL Brazil, delivering on ourPRICE FOR DEKALB HYBRID goal to stabilize share$23/ac $29/ac $29/ac $34/ac CORN SEED 2012 OUTLOOK Target 1-to-2 share points of growth annually through 2012111. Source: KLEFFMANN Marketing Services 12. EXTENDING LEADERSHIP With Two Recent Approvals, New Growth Opportunity ExistsFor Corn Traits in Latin AmericaInternational CornLATIN AMERICA: TRAIT OPPORTUNITYArgentina & GEOGRAPHY:BrazilARGENTINA BRAZILTrait Penetration OBJECTIVE:2008 STATUSAPPROVED YieldGard Corn Borer Roundup Ready Corn 2TRAITS Roundup Ready Corn 2 with YieldGard Corn Borer YieldGard Corn Borer YieldGard Corn Borer + stack received regulatoryRoundup Ready Corn 2 approval in Argentina endStack of August 2007 RECENTGranted approval forGranted first corn traitDEVELOPMENTSstack in August 2007approval in February YieldGard Corn Borer received final approvals in2009 OUTLOOK Seed production30-40% of DEKALB seed underway for 1-2M Brazil in early 2008will be double-stack commercial acres of Pricing for new traits to beYieldGard corn on par with the U.S. andTRAIT RETAILOn par with U.S. On par with U.S. value sharing above 50%PRICING to promote adoption CORN BORER7M15-20MOPPORTUNITIESCONTROL 2012 OUTLOOK2010 TRAIT GLYPHOSATE9M15-20M Increasing trait penetration TOLERANCE sets the stage forROOTWORM5M 5M SmartStax introduction CONTROL 12 13. CREATING LEADERSHIP Monsantos Pricing Model Aimed at Total Value Created;Shared With Farmer to Build Stable Long-Term GrowthEXAMPLE : LOW-PRICE ENVIRONMENT EXAMPLE : HIGH-PRICE ENVIRONMENT Farmer Value Proposition On Triple Stack atFarmer Value Proposition On Triple Stack at $2.50 Corn Prices$4.50 Corn Prices VALUE CREATION VALUE CREATION 15-20 bu/ac15-20 bu/ac Improved Yield1Improved Yield1 $2.50/bu $4.50/buCommodity Price:Commodity Price:$37-$50 $67-$90 Value: Value:$5$5 Indirect Benefits2 Indirect Benefits2$42-$55 $72-$95 Incremental Value CreatedIncremental Value Created PRICING APPROACH PRICING APPROACH $28-$36 $28-$36 Per-Acre Trait Cost3 Per-Acre Trait Cost3($17) ($17) Cost of Replacements4 Cost of Replacements4$16-$19 $16-$19 Incremental Farmer CostIncremental Farmer CostWith $2.50 corn, about 50% of the incremental yield value created is shared with the farmer; With $4.50 corn, about two-thirds of that value accrues to the farmer 1. Monsanto estimates, based on better insect and weed control over conventional options 2. Monsanto estimates, based on farmer surveys quantifying benefits such as convenience and peace of mind 3. Retail royalty range for YieldGard VT Triple in 2008, at normal seeding rates 4. Subtracts costs farmers would have spent had they not used a trait package13 14. EXTENDING LEADERSHIPStrong Pipeline Reflects Growing Innovation and Value of Emerging Yield and Stress Traits DISCOVERY PHASE 1PHASE 2PHASE 3 PHASE 4 Drought- HIGH Tolerant FAMILY TRAITSFamilyCORN: COLLABORATION YIELD & STRESS Nitrogen-BROAD-ACRE HIGH Utilization FAMILY TRAITSYIELDFamily Broad-Acre, MEGAHigher-Yielding FAMILY TRAITS Family SOYBEANS:Broad-Acre,BROAD-ACREHIGH Higher-YieldingFAMILY TRAITS YIELDFamily 2020 VALUE RANGES:RoundupOmega-3Bollgard III Ready 2 Yieldsoybeans soybeans MEGA HIGHRoundup Insect-protected$300M-$500M Ready 2>$1BMRoundup Ready YieldGardYield canola 2 Yield soybeans VT PRO Dicamba-corn MIDLOWtolerant soybeans2X2012 including recent lift inRoundup to $1.8B gross profit $10,0002007 BASELINE STRATEGIC PLAYBOOKAll growth is organic, from base$8,000business and pipeline IN MILLIONS U.S. Corn$6,000 International Corn Soybeans Cotton$4,000 Vegetables R&D Pipeline$2,000Acquisitions to be pursued, butare not included in this growthprojection $0Earnings continue to translate 2007 2008F 2012Finto operating cash, and valuecreated for shareownersAll Other Agricultural Productivitythrough combination ofRoundup And Other Glyphosate-basedacquisitions, technologyHerbicidesinvestments, share repurchasesSeeds & Genomicsand dividends23 24. Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures Reconciliation of Non-GAAP EPS Fiscal YearFiscal YearFiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year $ per share2008F2007 200620052004 Net Income (Loss) per Share$3.38 - $3.48 $1.79$1.25 $0.47 $0.50 Cumulative Effect of Change in Accounting Principle-- $0.01 ---- Diluted Earnings (Loss) per Share Before Effect of $3.38 - $3.48 $1.79$1.26 $0.47 $0.50 Accounting ChangeSolutia Claim Settlement($0.23) Tax Charge on Repatriated Earnings -- --$0.04 ---- Seminis In-Process R&D -- ----$0.38 -- Solutia-Related Charge -- ----$0.32 -- Tax Benefit on Loss from European Wheat and-- ----$(0.19) -- Barley Business Restructuring Charges -- Net -- ----$0.01 $0.18 Loss (Income) on Discontinued Operations 1 -- ($0.13) --$0.05 -- Impairment of Goodwill -- ------$0.12In-Process R & D Write-Off Related to the Delta & Pine Land--$0.34------ (D&PL) Acquisition Diluted Earnings (Loss) per Share from Ongoing Business$3.15 - $3.25 $2.00$1.30 $1.04 $0.80 Note: EPS figures reflect the stock split effective July 28, 2006241. The operating results of Stoneville and Nexgen have been conformed to discontinued operations for all relevant years presented.