monsanto 12-02-08

18
CITI CONFERENCE HUGH GRANT CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER December 2, 2008

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Page 1: monsanto 12-02-08

CITI CONFERENCE

HUGH GRANT

CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER

December 2, 2008

Page 2: monsanto 12-02-08

Forward-Looking Statements

2

Certain statements contained in this presentation are "forward-looking statements," such as statements concerning the company's anticipated financial results, current and future product performance, regulatory approvals, business and financial plans and other non-historical facts. These statements are based on current expectations and currently available information. However, since these statements are based on factors that involve risks and uncertainties, the company's actual performance and results may differ materially from those described or implied by such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, among others: continued competition in seeds, traits and agricultural chemicals; the company's exposure to various contingencies, including those related to intellectual property protection, regulatory compliance and the speed with which approvals are received, and public acceptance of biotechnology products; the success of the company's research and development activities; the outcomes of major lawsuits; developments related to foreign currencies and economies; successful operation of recent acquisitions; fluctuations in commodity prices; compliance with regulations affecting our manufacturing; the accuracy of the company's estimates related to distribution inventory levels; the company's ability to fund its short-term financing needs and to obtain payment for the products that it sells; the effect of weather conditions, natural disasters and accidents on the agriculture business or the company's facilities; and other risks and factors detailed in the company's most recent reports on forms 10-Q and 10-K. Undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements, which are current only as of the date of this presentation. The company disclaims any current intention or obligation to update any forward-looking statements or any of the factors that may affect actual results.

TrademarksTrademarks owned by Monsanto Company and its wholly-owned subsidiaries are italicized in this presentation. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

© 2008 Monsanto Company

Page 3: monsanto 12-02-08

3

Monsanto’s Growth Opportunity Lies at the Intersection of Demand, Innovation and Execution

More demand requires more YIELD

More yield requires more INNOVATION

More innovation delivers more GROWTH

Monsanto’s Simple Philosophy on Opportunity:

STRATEGIC OUTLOOK

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STRATEGIC OUTLOOK

200

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0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

1964

/196

5

1966

-196

7

1968

/196

9

1970

/197

1

1972

/197

3

1974

/197

5

1976

/197

7

1978

/197

9

1980

/198

1

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/198

3

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/198

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/198

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1988

/198

9

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/199

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1992

/199

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/199

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/199

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/199

9

2000

/200

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9P

STRETCHING SUPPLYWORLD CORN STOCKS-TO-USE RATIO1

ST

OC

KS

-TO

-US

E R

AT

IO

1. USDA PSD View database query for global corn

STATE OF AGRICULTURE:Yield Always Matters

► GLOBAL CORN STOCKS ESTIMATED AT 50 DAYS

► Global corn ending stocks-to-use ratio projected to be 14 percent for 2008/09

► Stocks-to-use are below the nearly 50-year average of 24 percent and at ratio not seen for almost 35 years

► Largest corn crops on record were produced in 2007 and 2008

► Production needs to be sustained at 4% above this year’s crop, and demand unchanged, to return to 24 percent

Increasing Protein Demand, Coupled with Boost from Biofuels, Creates Sustained Long-Term Grain Demand; Near-Term Inventories Re-Build

GLOBAL CORN STOCKS-TO-USE1

GLOBAL CORN CONSUMPTION1

M M

ET

RIC

TO

NS

1964/1965 2008/20091986/1987

Page 5: monsanto 12-02-08

Global Corn Production Per Acre Is Sub-Optimized Today, Creating an Opportunity for Innovation

Optimization of yield per acre

OptimizedSub-OptimizedPoor/Subsistence

U.S.90M ACRES151 BU/AC13B BUSHELS

CANADA3M ACRES136 BU/AC500M BUSHELS

INDIA20M ACRES

45% HYBRID32 BU/AC

700M BUSHELS

MEXICO18M ACRES

25% HYBRID48 BU/AC

900M BUSHELS BRAZIL36M ACRES75% HYBRID58 BU/AC2B BUSHELS

ARGENTINA10M ACRES111 BU/AC900M BUSHELS

CHINA67M ACRES83 BU/AC6B BUSHELS

EU 2727M ACRES 90% HYBRID99 BU/AC 2B BUSHELS

YIELD

Boosting yield-per-acre can make a meaningful difference in supply-demand environment• If India, Mexico

and Brazil moved to 100 bushel per acre yields, they could produce nearly 4 billion additional bushels of corn annually – equal to total world corn exports in 2007

GLOBAL CORN PRODUCTION1: CORE PRODUCTIVITY MEASURES AND EVALUATION

1. Source is USDA FAS and internal estimates. 5

STRATEGIC OUTLOOK

Page 6: monsanto 12-02-08

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2012F

Yield and Innovation Create the Runway of Growth to 2012 for Seeds & Traits and for Monsanto as a Whole

6

$7.2-$7.4B

GROSS PROFIT COMMITMENT: 2003-2012F

GP

(in m

illio

ns)

~2.25X2007

BASELINE

FINANCIAL OUTLOOK

$9.5-$9.75B

$4.20-$4.40ONGOING

EPS

$4.2B

SEEDS & GENOMICS GROSS PROFIT

AG PRODUCTIVITY GROSS PROFIT

BASELINE

2009 OUTLOOK

►Order pace for U.S. DEKALB corn within band of prior two years

►Order pace for branded U.S. soybean exceeds pace of the two previous seasons

►Latin America strong in the first quarter for both seed and traits and Roundup; monitoring credit for second season in Brazil

►Roundup pricing and volumes on track with $2.3-$2.4B gross profit estimates for this business

Page 7: monsanto 12-02-08

CORN SEED & TRAITS

CORN SEED & TRAITS

GROSS PROFIT PROGRESSION

GLOBAL GROSS PROFIT SPLIT

Corn Gross Profit Builds on Expanding Leadership in Branded Corn Seed, Launch of SmartStax and International Traits

7

$1,721$2,174

$2,800

2007 2008 2009F 2012F

$4,500- $4,600

70%

30%U.S.Intl. 70%

30%

2008 2012F

2012 MILESTONE TARGETS►Grow U.S. DEKALB corn share to 30-34

share points; grow ASI to ~15 share points

►Grow international branded corn share in key countries by 1-2 share points annually

►Launch SmartStax in the U.S. in 2010; target market of 60-65M1 acres

►Launch YieldGard Corn Borer/ Roundup Ready corn in Argentina in 2009; target market of 7M1 acres

►Launch YieldGard Corn Borer in Brazil in 2009; target market of 15-20M1 acres

►Advance drought-tolerant corn I through Phase 4

$ in millions

1. Target market defined as acres where technology is applicable, not necessarily a projection of acres penetrated by 2012.

Page 8: monsanto 12-02-08

8

Preliminary Yield Trial Results Reinforce Yield Advantage of DEKALB Seed in the U.S.

GEOGRAPHY: U.S.2009 OBJECTIVE:

Grow 2 Share Points

2008 PERFORMANCE UPDATE

• In > 12,800 comparisons, DEKALB out-yields competitive best by 9.8 bu/acre on average

• On 60 percent of the acres planted, DEKALB has 8-12 bu/acre advantage

2008 PRELIMINARY U.S. COMPETITIVE CORN YIELD COMPARISON: DEKALB

184

193191

207

198 199

171

182

190

196

189 189

150

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

210

215

COMPETITORS

DEKALB

BU

SH

ELS

/AC

RE

(AP

PR

OX

IMA

TE

DIF

FER

EN

CE

S)

RELATIVE MATURITIES (DAYS)► 90/95 RM 100 RM 105 RM 110 RM 115 RM OverallCOMPARISONS: >840 >2,550 >670 >4,370 >4,350 >12,800

APPROXIMATE BU/AC ADVANTAGE: 12.4 11.4 1.0 11.0 8.4 9.8

Source: Preliminary 2008 Monsanto and third party head-to-head comparisons of 5 leading DEKALB hybrids within each RM zone to national competitor products containing similar crop protection traits within 2 RM days as of November 14, 2008. Weighted average calculated to 15% moisture.

CORN SEED

Page 9: monsanto 12-02-08

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Launch of Roundup Ready 2 Yield Soybeans Key to Long-Term Growth of Leading Soybean Platform

SOYBEAN SEED & TRAITS

SOYBEAN SEED & TRAITSGROSS PROFIT PROGRESSION

GLOBAL GROSS PROFIT SPLIT

$588 $725

2007 2008 2009F 2012F

80%

20%U.S.Intl.

85%

15%

~$1,200

~$700

2008 2012F

2012 MILESTONE TARGETS►Controlled commercial release of

Roundup Ready 2 Yield on 1-2M acres in the U.S. in 2009

►Large-scale launch of Roundup Ready 2 Yield on 5-6M acres in 2010; target market of 45-55M1 acres

►Grow Asgrow brand to 25 share points in the U.S. by 2012

► Increase Brazil Roundup Ready soybean penetration to 80 percent by 2012 in anticipation of launch of insect-protected Roundup Ready 2 Yield soybeans

$ in millions

1. Target market defined as acres where technology is applicable, not necessarily a projection of acres penetrated by 2012.

Page 10: monsanto 12-02-08

Cotton Seed and Traits Focused on Continued Upgrade to Second Generation Technology in U.S. and India

COTTON SEED & TRAITS

10

COTTON SEED & TRAITSGROSS PROFIT PROGRESSION

GLOBAL GROSS PROFIT SPLIT

$267 $313

2007 2008 2009F 2012F

70%

30%U.S.

Intl. 55%

45%

~$500

~$300

2008 2012F

2012 MILESTONE TARGETS►Expand second-generation trait

penetration in U.S. Deltapine brand

►Expand Bollgard II acres in India; currently 25 percent penetrated in 18-20M acre opportunity

►Grow U.S. Deltapine brand share from current share of 41 percent to ~50 percent by 2012

►Grow Brazil branded cotton share by 10 points to 31 percent; grow India to 12 percent share

$ in millions

Page 11: monsanto 12-02-08

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Vegetable Platform Focused on Execution and Growth To Generate 65 Percent Margins by 2012

VEGETABLE SEEDS

VEGETABLE SEEDSGROSS PROFIT PROGRESSION

GLOBAL GROSS PROFIT SPLIT

$267$394

~500

2007 2008 2009F 2012F

20%

80%

U.S.Intl.

20%

80%

2008 2012F

2012 MILESTONE TARGETS► Integrate De Ruiter protected culture

seeds►Continue margin expansion toward

goal of 65 percent by 2012Price existing products to valueLaunch new products with increased valueExpand high-margin protected-culture segment

►Accelerate new product launches via use of molecular markers

$ in millions~$750

Page 12: monsanto 12-02-08

GLOBAL VOLUME (GALLONS): 209M 215M 235M 252M 257M

BRANDED PRICE BAND (PER GALLON): $11-$13 $11-$13 $11-$13 >$11-$13 ~$20

TOTAL ROUNDUP AND OTHER GLYPHOSATE-BASED HERBICIDES GROSS PROFIT:

$703M $637M $648M $854M $2.0B

ROUNDUP

Roundup and Other Glyphosate-Based

Herbicides2009 Forecast

GROSS PROFIT TARGET: $2.3-$2.4B

BRANDED PRICE BAND (PER GALLON FORECAST):

Above $16-$18

2012 Forecast

GROSS PROFIT TARGET: $1.9B

BRANDED PRICE BAND (PER GALLON FORECAST): $16-$18

Increased 2009 and 2012 Targets for Roundup Reflect Sustainability Even As Supply-Demand Comes Into Balance

12

ROUNDUP AND OTHER GLYPHOSATE-BASED HERBICIDES: BRANDED AND NON-BRANDED TRENDS – 2004-2008

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Glo

bal V

olum

e (in

gal

lons

)

BrandedNon-Branded

Page 13: monsanto 12-02-08

USES OF CASH

Over 70% of the $2.8 Billion of Operating Cash Generated Invested in Acquisitions, Technology and Capital in FY08

13

33%

15%

2%

13%

37%

Share Repurchase

Dividends

Capital Spending

Acquisitions and Technology Collaborations

USES OF CASHPERCENT OF $2.8B OPERATING CASH USED BY CATEGORY: FY2008

Cash Generation

FY2008 Free Cash Flow: $772M

FY2009 Free Cash Flow Forecast1: ~$1.8B

CASH PRIORITIES

• Bolster direct returns to shareowners

• Support commercial growth through capital spending

• Invest in future growth through technology collaborations

• Expand the core through strategic acquisitions

Other 1. Estimate does not contemplate strategic acquisitions.

Page 14: monsanto 12-02-08

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R&D PIPELINE

R&D Engine Is Poised to Launch Average of One Game-Changing Technology Every Other Year Through Mid-Decade

R&D PIPELINE: ADVANCED GAME-CHANGING TECHNOLOGIES

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TO MID-DECADE

Roundup Ready 2 YieldSoybeans

SmartStaxDrought-Tolerant Corn Family1

Nitrogen-Utilization Corn Family1

• Second-gen soybean trait platform

• China import approval received September 2008

• On track for 2009 release; 2010 full launch

• All-in-one corn trait platform

• On track for 2010 launch – Submitted for regulatory review and refuge reduction

• Value likely in improved yield under stress and potential for water replacement

• Targets ways to use nitrogen more efficiently

CONTROL HYBRID(76 BU/AC)

WITH GENE(94 BU/AC)

SUPERIOR, NE - FIELD TRIALS – 2007

1. Part of the Monsanto-BASF Yield and Stress R&D Collaboration

FARM PROGRESS SHOW – 2007

FARM PROGRESS SHOW – 2007

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Roundup Ready 2 Yield Soybeans Is One Of the Most-Anticipated Launches Because of Step-Change In Yield

Roundup Ready 2 Yield soybeans yield 7 to 11 percent higher than Roundup Readysoybeans based on 73 Monsanto field trials from 2004-2007Seamless price set at ~$70 per acre for seed, trait and treatment, a $20 per acre premium over first generation Roundup Ready; result of 3-5 bu yield advantage

Near-Isoline Comparisons:Roundup Ready 2 Yield vs. Roundup Ready

4 YEAR AVERAGE

NEW: ROUNDUP READY 2 YIELD SOYBEANS:SECOND-GENERATION WEED CONTROL OPPORTUNITY

SOYBEAN SEED & TRAITS

11%

7%

9%

7%

9%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2004 2005 2006 2007

% Y

ield

Incr

ease

ove

r R

ound

up R

eady

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Monsanto’s Leadership Continues With Next Game-Changer in Corn; SmartStax to Reset Trait Platform

SMARTSTAX

COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY

LAUNCH TARGET: 2010TARGET ACRE

OPPORTUNITY: 60-65MVALUE PROPOSITION

2008 trials evaluating SmartStax in elite germplasm, quantifying sources of potential on-farm yield advantages:

Improved consistency: Primary pests

1-2%

Improved consistency: Secondary pests

1-2%

Reduced refuge 3-6%

5-10%

CORN SEED & TRAITS

SmartStax STATUS

REFUGE REDUCTION STRATEGY:

• Precedent established with U.S. EPA on dual-mode-of-action traits:

• YieldGard VT PRO received reduced refuge in Southern geographies

• Bollgard II natural refuge in cotton

COMMERCIALTRACK:

• On track for 2010 launch• All components have U.S. approvals• Final regulatory package with 5% refuge

request submitted in June 2008

Page 17: monsanto 12-02-08

CONTROL HYBRID(76 BU/AC)

WITH GENE(94 BU/AC)

SUPERIOR, NE - FIELD TRIALS – 2007

2007 Dryland Field Tests of Lead Drought Event Offers Visual Evidence of Increased Yield In Stressed Conditions

2007 FIELD TESTING SHOWS VISUAL PROOF OF YIELD IMPROVEMENT

Water stress exposure during different stages of development can have significant effect on corn yield; Monsanto’s lead drought-tolerance trait shows a significant yield advantage compared with controls under drought stress

1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where technology fits at Monsanto's 2007 market share in respective crops

2. 2020 value reflects gross sales opportunity in launch country in year 2020

R&D PipelineDrought-Tolerant Corn Family: Lead Project

HIT Project Phase 3PROJECT CONCEPT:

Drought-tolerance family aimed at providing consistent yield and buffering against effects of water limitationsVALUE:

LAUNCH-COUNTRY ACRES1: 55M

2020 VALUE2: $300-$500MSOURCES OF VALUE:

1Improved yieldTargeting 6-10% yield improvement in water-stress environments

R&D PIPELINE

PART OF THE MONSANTO BASF YIELD AND STRESS R&D COLLABORATION 17

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Monsanto’s Growth Opportunity Lies at the Intersection of Demand, Innovation and Execution

More demand requires more YIELD

More yield requires more INNOVATION

More innovation delivers more GROWTH

Monsanto’s Simple Philosophy on Opportunity:

SUMMARY