monsanto 12-09-08
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CANACCORD ADAMS AGRICULTURE CONFERENCE
DR. ROBB FRALEY
CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER
December 9, 2008
Forward-Looking Statements
2
Certain statements contained in this presentation are "forward-looking statements," such as statements concerning the company's anticipated financial results, current and future product performance, regulatory approvals, business and financial plans and other non-historical facts. These statements are based on current expectations and currently available information. However, since these statements are based on factors that involve risks and uncertainties, the company's actual performance and results may differ materially from those described or implied by such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, among others: continued competition in seeds, traits and agricultural chemicals; the company's exposure to various contingencies, including those related to intellectual property protection, regulatory compliance and the speed with which approvals are received, and public acceptance of biotechnology products; the success of the company's research and development activities; the outcomes of major lawsuits; developments related to foreign currencies and economies; successful operation of recent acquisitions; fluctuations in commodity prices; compliance with regulations affecting our manufacturing; the accuracy of the company's estimates related to distribution inventory levels; the company's ability to fund its short-term financing needs and to obtain payment for the products that it sells; the effect of weather conditions, natural disasters and accidents on the agriculture business or the company's facilities; and other risks and factors detailed in the company's most recent reports on forms 10-Q and 10-K. Undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements, which are current only as of the date of this presentation. The company disclaims any current intention or obligation to update any forward-looking statements or any of the factors that may affect actual results.
TrademarksTrademarks owned by Monsanto Company and its wholly-owned subsidiaries are italicized in this presentation. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
© 2008 Monsanto Company
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Monsanto’s Growth Opportunity Lies at the Intersection of Demand, Innovation and Execution
More demand requires more YIELD
More yield requires more INNOVATION
More innovation delivers more GROWTH
Monsanto’s Simple Philosophy on Opportunity:
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK
4
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK
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9F
STRETCHING SUPPLYWORLD CORN STOCKS-TO-USE RATIO1
ST
OC
KS
-TO
-US
E R
AT
IO
1. USDA PSD View database query for global corn
STATE OF AGRICULTURE:Yield Always Matters
► DEMAND PERSISTS OVER TIME
► Global corn ending stocks-to-use ratio projected to be ~14 percent for 2008/09
► Stocks-to-use are below the nearly 50-year average of 24 percent and at ratio not seen for almost 35 years
► Largest corn crops on record were produced in 2007 and 2008
► Production needs to be sustained at 2% above this year’s crop, and demand unchanged, to build stocks-to-use to 15 percent
Increasing Protein Demand, Coupled with Boost from Biofuels, Creates Sustained Long-Term Grain Demand
GLOBAL CORN STOCKS-TO-USE1
GLOBAL CORN CONSUMPTION1
M M
ET
RIC
TO
NS
1964/1965 2008/20091986/1987
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2030 U.S. YIELD TARGET
2030: >2x 2000 BASELINE OF 137 BU/AC
5
Monsanto’s Innovation Targeted at Doubling Yield by 2030, Extending Competitive Lead and Creating New Value
DOUBLING YIELD WITH TECHNOLOGY:U.S. CORN EXAMPLE
DOUBLING YIELD BY 2030U.S. BASELINE
CROP 2000 BASELINE1
Corn: 137 bu/ac
Soybeans: 37 bu/ac
Cotton: 632 lbs/acSTRATEGIC RATIONALE
Helping meet global demand
Furthering competitive lead
Creating new value for farmers that creates sustainable growth opportunities
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK
HISTORIC YIELD GAIN
AGRONOMIC PRACTICE IMPROVEMENTS
BREEDING IMPROVEMENTS
BIOTECH IMPROVEMENTS
BU
SH
ELS
PE
R A
CR
E
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2012F
Yield and Innovation Create the Runway of Growth to 2012 for Seeds & Traits and for Monsanto as a Whole
6
$7.2-$7.4B
GROSS PROFIT COMMITMENT: 2003-2012F
GP
(in m
illio
ns)
~2.25X2007
BASELINE
FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
$9.5-$9.75B
$4.20-$4.40ONGOING
EPS
$4.2B
SEEDS & GENOMICS GROSS PROFIT
AG PRODUCTIVITY GROSS PROFIT
BASELINE
MILESTONES TO 2012 TARGET
►Grow branded corn seed share 1-2 points in key countries annually
►2009 U.S. release of Roundup Ready 2 Yield
►2010 U.S. launch of SmartStax
►Upgrade to second-generation technologies in cotton in the U.S. and India
►Vegetable seed business to deliver 65% margins through pricing to value, mix and operational excellence
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SEED & TRAITS
Breeding and Biotech Combine to Provide the Most Robust Seed Package for Growers and Drive Growth to 2012
PHASE II PHASE III PHASE IVPHASE IDISCOVERY LAUNCHR&D PHASE:
ELI
TE
G
ER
MP
LAS
M
GE
NO
MIC
S
MA
RK
ER
S
ITP
LAT
FOR
M
AN
ALY
TIC
S
CO
MM
ER
CIA
L
BREEDING
BIOTECHNOLOGY
GGermplasm
R
SEED SOLD TO FARMERS
Seed Platforms Are Business Foundation, Establish Footprint for Traits, and Create Diversified Crop Portfolio Globally
SEED & TRAITS
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BRAZIL 2008 SHARE 2012 TARGETS
CORN 40% 44-48%
COTTON 21% 31%ARGENTINA 2008 SHARE 2012 TARGETS
CORN 46% 50-54%
U.S. 2008 SHARE 2012TARGETS
DEKALB 25.5% 30-34%ASI 10.5% ~15%Asgrow 20% 24-28%ASI 9% 10-12%Deltapine 41% ~50%
INDIA 2008 SHARE 2012 TARGETS
CORN 36% 40-44%
COTTON 5% 12%
EU27 2008 SHARE 2012 TARGETS
CORN 12% 16-20%
LA - NORTH 2008 SHARE 2012 TARGETS
CORN 58% 62-66%
Share for row crops provided reflects sales volume for Monsanto brands divided by total planted acres in respective geography.
Corn represents hybrid corn share in each respective market.
Source for Deltapine share in the U.S. is dmrkynetic 2008 new certified seed share estimates.
9
2008 Yield Trial Results Reinforce Consistent Yield Advantage of DEKALB Seed in the U.S.
GEOGRAPHY: U.S.2009 OBJECTIVE:
Grow 2 Share Points
2008 PERFORMANCE UPDATE
• In 2008 in > 15,300 comparisons, DEKALBout-yields competitive best by 9.6 bu/acre on average
• Farmers have been able to count on DEKALB to consistently deliver a yield advantage of seven or more bushels per acre
2008 FINAL U.S. COMPETITIVE CORN YIELD COMPARISON: DEKALB
8.2 8.4 8.4
9.6
7.1 7.88.3
8.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2005 2006 2007 2008
DEKALB THREE -YEAR ROLLING YIELD ADVANTAGE
DEKALB ANNUAL YIELD ADVANTAGE
BU
SH
ELS
/AC
RE
(AP
PR
OX
IMA
TE
DIF
FER
EN
CE
S)
Source: Annual yield advantage calculated each year by comparing leading DEKALB volume products within each RM zone to national competitor products within 2 RM days. 2008 data as of November 23, 2008. Weighted average calculated to 15% moisture. >230,000 comparisons represented in the four years of rolling averages.
CORN SEED & TRAITS
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60 MOISTURE YIELD
1. Source – 2008 Monsanto and third party head-to-head comparisons of 5 leading DEKALB brands within each RM Zone to national competitor products containing similar crop protection traits within 2 RM as of November 23, 2008. Drying cost based on $0.06/bu per point of moisture and corn price calculated at $4.00/ bu.
2008
Gro
wer
Inco
me
Adv
anta
ge -$
/Acr
e
RELATIVE MATURITIES (DAYS)► 90/95 RM 100 RM 105 RM 110 RM 115 RM
COMPARISONS: >1,040 >2,550 >790 >4,700 >4,550APPROXIMATE BU/AC
ADVANTAGE: 11.0 11.3 1.9 10.8 8.3HARVEST MOISTURE
ADVANTAGE: 0.9% 1.2% 2.3% 1.2% 0.9%
GEOGRAPHY: U.S.2008 PERFORMANCE UPDATE
• DEKALB Harvest moisture and yield advantage creates total value advantage over the competition of $33-$55/acre
Value to Farmer Over Competitive Offering Combines Yield and Harvest Moisture Advantages
CORN SEED & TRAITS
$50$54
$33
$55
$41
10
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CORN SEED & TRAITS
Triple-Stack Penetration Accelerates, Creating Added Growth and Setting Stage for SmartStax Launch
U.S
. A
CR
ES
(IN
MIL
LIO
NS
)0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2007 2008 2009F 2010F
U.S. CORN TRAIT OPPORTUNITY: 2007-2010F
2007 2008 2009F 2010 Opportunity
TripleStack/SmartStax 17.6M 29.1M 34-35M 60-65M
Opportunity widens in 2010 with planned launch of SmartStax
GEOGRAPHY: U.S.2008 PERFORMANCE UPDATE
• The majority of U.S. branded corn seed orders to date are triple-stack orders, reflecting farmers’ demand for technology and yield
• Over the past two years, DEKALBVT Triple outperformed Pioneer® triples by nearly 9.7 bushels1 in >12,000 head-to-head comparisons across the U.S.
• Those two years were remarkably different in insect and moisture stress, yet DEKALB VT Triple consistently delivered a yield advantage
• This is value above and beyond the 15-20 bu/acre advantage of our triple-stack over conventional seed
1. Source: 2008 Monsanto and third party head-to-head comparisons of 5 leading DEKALB hybrids within each RM zone to Pioneer® products containing similar crop protection traits within 2 RM days as of November 23, 2008. Weighted average calculated to 15% moisture.
MONSANTO TRIPLE-STACK ACRESSMARTSTAX ACRE OPPORTUNITY
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Leadership Continues With Next Game-Changer in Corn;SmartStax On Track to Reset Trait Platform in 2010
SMARTSTAX
COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY
LAUNCH TARGET: 2010TARGET ACRE
OPPORTUNITY: 60-65MVALUE PROPOSITION
2008 trials evaluating SmartStax in elite germplasm, quantifying sources of potential on-farm yield advantages:
Improved consistency: Primary pests
1-2%
Improved consistency: Secondary pests
1-2%
Reduced refuge1 3-6%
5-10%
CORN SEED & TRAITS
SmartStax STATUS
REFUGE REDUCTION STRATEGY:
• Precedent established with U.S. EPA on dual-mode-of-action traits:
• YieldGard VT PRO received reduced refuge in Southern geographies
• Bollgard II natural refuge in cotton
COMMERCIALTRACK:
• On track for 2010• All components have U.S. approvals• Final regulatory package with 5% refuge
request submitted in June 2008
1. Subject to the approval of the EPA
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SOYBEAN SEED & TRAITS
Initial Soybean Yield Performance Continues to Reinforce Breeding Leadership
2008 PRELIMINARY U.S. COMPETITIVE SOYBEAN YIELD COMPARISON: ASGROW
GEOGRAPHY: U.S.OBJECTIVE: Grow footprint2008 PERFORMANCE UPDATE
• Yield data from 2008 indicates continued yield advantage for national brands versus best-in-class competitors
• The game-changing event in soybean yield will bethe introduction of Roundup Ready 2 Yield in 2009
1.1 1.2
0.7
1.5 1.4
1.0
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2006 2007 2008
ASGROW 3-YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE YIELD ADVANTAGE
ASGROW ANNUAL YIELD ADVANTAGE
BU
SH
ELS
/AC
RE
(AP
PR
OX
IMA
TE
DIF
FER
EN
CE
S)
Source: Preliminary- all Asgrow commodity Products; Commercial Data (Market development and side x side) as of 11/21/08; head-to-head comparisons within +/-0.4 RM vs. Pioneer & Syngenta>77,000 comparisons represented in the three years of rolling averages.
14
SOYBEAN SEED & TRAITS
VALUE PROPOSITIONYIELD
IMPROVEMENT ON AVERAGE YIELDS IN GROUPS 2 & 3:
3-5 bu/ac
INCREMENTAL YIELD VALUE TO
FARMER (VERSUS ROUNDUP READY):
$27-$45/ac
PRICING
SEAMLESS PRICE FOR FIRST-
GENERATION ROUNDUP READY
SEED (PER ACRE)1:
$49-$52
SEAMLESS PRICE FOR ROUNDUP READY 2 YIELD
SEED (PER ACRE)1:
$69-$72
ROUNDUP READY 2 YIELDLAUNCH PLANS
2009
►U.S. controlled commercial release on 1-2M acres in maturity groups 2 and 3► >50% of the U.S. soybean acres
planted are in groups 2 and 3► Multiple varieties available for 2009
release►EU import approval recently obtained,
demonstrating continued global acceptance
2010►Launch on 5-6M acres in the U.S. with
up to 30 new varieties with expanded maturity groups
2011 ►Expand majority of Asgrow varieties to Roundup Ready 2 Yield
Roundup Ready 2 Yield Soybeans Is One Of the Most-Anticipated Launches Because of Step-Change In Yield
1. Reflects seamless price to the farmer, including trait value, germplasm value and value provided by the seed treatment.
15
Roundup Ready 2 Yield Will Be the First Biotech Yield TraitOffered in Soybeans
► Power in the Pod: Roundup Ready 2 Yield soybean varieties produce more 3-bean pods per plant1
NEW: ROUNDUP READY 2 YIELD SOYBEANS: COMMERCIAL CHECKSPRELIMINARY 2008 COMPARISONS TO COMMERCIAL ROUNDUP READY SOYBEANS
SOYBEAN SEED & TRAITS
RELATIVE MATURITIES► 2 3
COMPARISONS: >100 >800APPROXIMATE BU/AC
ADVANTAGE FOR ROUNDUP READY 2 YIELD:
4.1 3.7
PERCENT YIELD ADVANTAGE FOR ROUNDUP
READY 2 YIELD:7.9% 7.0%
Bus
hels
per
Acr
e 56 57
52 53
35373941434547495153555759 COMPETITORS’ PRODUCT WITH
ROUNDUP READY TRAITROUNDUP READY 2 YIELD
SOURCE: Preliminary 2008 head-to-head comparisons of all Roundup Ready 2 Yield products available for sale in 2009 vs. national competitors Roundup Ready as of Nov. 19, 2008
SOURCE: 19 Monsanto field trials with seed counted from over 4,728 plants from 340 plots. p value <0.001 Data as of November 24, 2008.
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Roundup Ready 2 Yield Soybeans to Serve as Platform for Robust Soybean Pipeline
STATE OF AGRICULTURE:
A New Soybean Platform
ROUNDUP READY 2 YIELD
OIL TRAITS
DICAMBA-TOLERANT
HIGHER-YIELDING
SOYBEAN SEED & TRAITS
SOYBEAN RENAISSANCE►Roundup Ready 2 Yield becomes the
platform for soybean traits►Four traits in soybean pipeline in
Phase 3 focused on U.S. market:Vistive III soybeansDicamba-Tolerant soybeansOmega-3 soybeansHigher-Oil soybeans
►Phase 3 Insect-Protected + Roundup Ready 2 soybean targeted for Brazil; farmers currently spend ~$6.00/acre for insecticides and application
►Higher-yielding soybeans, with 10 percent yield increase target above Roundup Ready 2 Yield, have potential to reset soybean yield bar in middle of next decade
U.S. SOYBEAN ACRE TRAIT STACKING POTENTIAL
INSECT-PROTECTED BY ROUNDUP READY 2
BRAZIL SOYBEAN ACRE TRAIT STACKING POTENTIAL
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Investment in Traits Yields Significant Returns for Both Monsanto and Growers
R&D PIPELINE
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
~40XINITIAL
INVESTMENT
~$100MINITIAL R&D INVESTMENT
ROUNDUP READY SOYBEAN TRAITLIFE-TO-DATE NET SALES = ~$4.0B
GROWERS RECEIVED ~$11B1
OF FARM INCOME BENEFIT
1. SOURCE: Graham Brookes & Peter Barfoot PG Economics Ltd, UK June 2008 “GM crops: global socio-economic and environmental impacts 1996-2006” Amounts in nominal terms and represent global farm income benefit from 1996-2006. Argentina benefit excluded from Roundup Ready soybean grower farm income benefit.
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R&D PIPELINE
R&D Engine Is Poised to Launch Average of One Game-Changing Technology Every Other Year Through Mid-Decade
R&D PIPELINE: ADVANCED GAME-CHANGING TECHNOLOGIES
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TO MID-DECADE
Roundup Ready 2 YieldSoybeans
SmartStaxDrought-Tolerant Corn Family1
Nitrogen-Utilization Corn Family1
• Second-gen soybean trait platform
• China import approval received September 2008
• On track for 2009 release
• All-in-one corn trait platform
• On track for 2010 launch – Submitted for regulatory review and refuge reduction
• Value likely in improved yield under stress and potential for water replacement
• Targets ways to use nitrogen more efficiently
CONTROL HYBRID(76 BU/AC)
WITH GENE(94 BU/AC)
SUPERIOR, NE - FIELD TRIALS – 2007
1. Part of the Monsanto-BASF Yield and Stress R&D Collaboration
FARM PROGRESS SHOW – 2007
FARM PROGRESS SHOW – 2007
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R&D PIPELINE
Monsanto’s Biotech Pipeline Is Accelerating, With Analysis Under Way for January 2009 Update on Progress
R & D PIPELINE UPDATEFirst Quarter Earnings Call to
Highlight Annual R & D Pipeline Review and Update
Currently completing statistical analysis on 100’s of 2008 field trials; nearly 175 trial locations for yield & stress projects aloneMultiple projects expected to advance in January 2009
Q1 Q4
Q3Q2
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Monsanto’s Growth Opportunity Lies at the Intersection of Demand, Innovation and Execution
More demand requires more YIELD
More yield requires more INNOVATION
More innovation delivers more GROWTH
Monsanto’s Simple Philosophy on Opportunity:
SUMMARY