monsanto 12-09-08

20
CANACCORD ADAMS AGRICULTURE CONFERENCE DR. ROBB FRALEY CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER December 9, 2008

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Page 1: monsanto 12-09-08

CANACCORD ADAMS AGRICULTURE CONFERENCE

DR. ROBB FRALEY

CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER

December 9, 2008

Page 2: monsanto 12-09-08

Forward-Looking Statements

2

Certain statements contained in this presentation are "forward-looking statements," such as statements concerning the company's anticipated financial results, current and future product performance, regulatory approvals, business and financial plans and other non-historical facts. These statements are based on current expectations and currently available information. However, since these statements are based on factors that involve risks and uncertainties, the company's actual performance and results may differ materially from those described or implied by such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, among others: continued competition in seeds, traits and agricultural chemicals; the company's exposure to various contingencies, including those related to intellectual property protection, regulatory compliance and the speed with which approvals are received, and public acceptance of biotechnology products; the success of the company's research and development activities; the outcomes of major lawsuits; developments related to foreign currencies and economies; successful operation of recent acquisitions; fluctuations in commodity prices; compliance with regulations affecting our manufacturing; the accuracy of the company's estimates related to distribution inventory levels; the company's ability to fund its short-term financing needs and to obtain payment for the products that it sells; the effect of weather conditions, natural disasters and accidents on the agriculture business or the company's facilities; and other risks and factors detailed in the company's most recent reports on forms 10-Q and 10-K. Undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements, which are current only as of the date of this presentation. The company disclaims any current intention or obligation to update any forward-looking statements or any of the factors that may affect actual results.

TrademarksTrademarks owned by Monsanto Company and its wholly-owned subsidiaries are italicized in this presentation. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

© 2008 Monsanto Company

Page 3: monsanto 12-09-08

3

Monsanto’s Growth Opportunity Lies at the Intersection of Demand, Innovation and Execution

More demand requires more YIELD

More yield requires more INNOVATION

More innovation delivers more GROWTH

Monsanto’s Simple Philosophy on Opportunity:

STRATEGIC OUTLOOK

Page 4: monsanto 12-09-08

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STRATEGIC OUTLOOK

200

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500

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0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

1964

/196

5

1966

-196

7

1968

/196

9

1970

/197

1

1972

/197

3

1974

/197

5

1976

/197

7

1978

/197

9

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1982

/198

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/198

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/199

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/199

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/199

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/199

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/200

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2005

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/200

9F

STRETCHING SUPPLYWORLD CORN STOCKS-TO-USE RATIO1

ST

OC

KS

-TO

-US

E R

AT

IO

1. USDA PSD View database query for global corn

STATE OF AGRICULTURE:Yield Always Matters

► DEMAND PERSISTS OVER TIME

► Global corn ending stocks-to-use ratio projected to be ~14 percent for 2008/09

► Stocks-to-use are below the nearly 50-year average of 24 percent and at ratio not seen for almost 35 years

► Largest corn crops on record were produced in 2007 and 2008

► Production needs to be sustained at 2% above this year’s crop, and demand unchanged, to build stocks-to-use to 15 percent

Increasing Protein Demand, Coupled with Boost from Biofuels, Creates Sustained Long-Term Grain Demand

GLOBAL CORN STOCKS-TO-USE1

GLOBAL CORN CONSUMPTION1

M M

ET

RIC

TO

NS

1964/1965 2008/20091986/1987

Page 5: monsanto 12-09-08

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

2030 U.S. YIELD TARGET

2030: >2x 2000 BASELINE OF 137 BU/AC

5

Monsanto’s Innovation Targeted at Doubling Yield by 2030, Extending Competitive Lead and Creating New Value

DOUBLING YIELD WITH TECHNOLOGY:U.S. CORN EXAMPLE

DOUBLING YIELD BY 2030U.S. BASELINE

CROP 2000 BASELINE1

Corn: 137 bu/ac

Soybeans: 37 bu/ac

Cotton: 632 lbs/acSTRATEGIC RATIONALE

Helping meet global demand

Furthering competitive lead

Creating new value for farmers that creates sustainable growth opportunities

STRATEGIC OUTLOOK

HISTORIC YIELD GAIN

AGRONOMIC PRACTICE IMPROVEMENTS

BREEDING IMPROVEMENTS

BIOTECH IMPROVEMENTS

BU

SH

ELS

PE

R A

CR

E

Page 6: monsanto 12-09-08

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2012F

Yield and Innovation Create the Runway of Growth to 2012 for Seeds & Traits and for Monsanto as a Whole

6

$7.2-$7.4B

GROSS PROFIT COMMITMENT: 2003-2012F

GP

(in m

illio

ns)

~2.25X2007

BASELINE

FINANCIAL OUTLOOK

$9.5-$9.75B

$4.20-$4.40ONGOING

EPS

$4.2B

SEEDS & GENOMICS GROSS PROFIT

AG PRODUCTIVITY GROSS PROFIT

BASELINE

MILESTONES TO 2012 TARGET

►Grow branded corn seed share 1-2 points in key countries annually

►2009 U.S. release of Roundup Ready 2 Yield

►2010 U.S. launch of SmartStax

►Upgrade to second-generation technologies in cotton in the U.S. and India

►Vegetable seed business to deliver 65% margins through pricing to value, mix and operational excellence

Page 7: monsanto 12-09-08

7

SEED & TRAITS

Breeding and Biotech Combine to Provide the Most Robust Seed Package for Growers and Drive Growth to 2012

PHASE II PHASE III PHASE IVPHASE IDISCOVERY LAUNCHR&D PHASE:

ELI

TE

G

ER

MP

LAS

M

GE

NO

MIC

S

MA

RK

ER

S

ITP

LAT

FOR

M

AN

ALY

TIC

S

CO

MM

ER

CIA

L

BREEDING

BIOTECHNOLOGY

GGermplasm

R

SEED SOLD TO FARMERS

Page 8: monsanto 12-09-08

Seed Platforms Are Business Foundation, Establish Footprint for Traits, and Create Diversified Crop Portfolio Globally

SEED & TRAITS

8

BRAZIL 2008 SHARE 2012 TARGETS

CORN 40% 44-48%

COTTON 21% 31%ARGENTINA 2008 SHARE 2012 TARGETS

CORN 46% 50-54%

U.S. 2008 SHARE 2012TARGETS

DEKALB 25.5% 30-34%ASI 10.5% ~15%Asgrow 20% 24-28%ASI 9% 10-12%Deltapine 41% ~50%

INDIA 2008 SHARE 2012 TARGETS

CORN 36% 40-44%

COTTON 5% 12%

EU27 2008 SHARE 2012 TARGETS

CORN 12% 16-20%

LA - NORTH 2008 SHARE 2012 TARGETS

CORN 58% 62-66%

Share for row crops provided reflects sales volume for Monsanto brands divided by total planted acres in respective geography.

Corn represents hybrid corn share in each respective market.

Source for Deltapine share in the U.S. is dmrkynetic 2008 new certified seed share estimates.

Page 9: monsanto 12-09-08

9

2008 Yield Trial Results Reinforce Consistent Yield Advantage of DEKALB Seed in the U.S.

GEOGRAPHY: U.S.2009 OBJECTIVE:

Grow 2 Share Points

2008 PERFORMANCE UPDATE

• In 2008 in > 15,300 comparisons, DEKALBout-yields competitive best by 9.6 bu/acre on average

• Farmers have been able to count on DEKALB to consistently deliver a yield advantage of seven or more bushels per acre

2008 FINAL U.S. COMPETITIVE CORN YIELD COMPARISON: DEKALB

8.2 8.4 8.4

9.6

7.1 7.88.3

8.8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2005 2006 2007 2008

DEKALB THREE -YEAR ROLLING YIELD ADVANTAGE

DEKALB ANNUAL YIELD ADVANTAGE

BU

SH

ELS

/AC

RE

(AP

PR

OX

IMA

TE

DIF

FER

EN

CE

S)

Source: Annual yield advantage calculated each year by comparing leading DEKALB volume products within each RM zone to national competitor products within 2 RM days. 2008 data as of November 23, 2008. Weighted average calculated to 15% moisture. >230,000 comparisons represented in the four years of rolling averages.

CORN SEED & TRAITS

Page 10: monsanto 12-09-08

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60 MOISTURE YIELD

1. Source – 2008 Monsanto and third party head-to-head comparisons of 5 leading DEKALB brands within each RM Zone to national competitor products containing similar crop protection traits within 2 RM as of November 23, 2008. Drying cost based on $0.06/bu per point of moisture and corn price calculated at $4.00/ bu.

2008

Gro

wer

Inco

me

Adv

anta

ge -$

/Acr

e

RELATIVE MATURITIES (DAYS)► 90/95 RM 100 RM 105 RM 110 RM 115 RM

COMPARISONS: >1,040 >2,550 >790 >4,700 >4,550APPROXIMATE BU/AC

ADVANTAGE: 11.0 11.3 1.9 10.8 8.3HARVEST MOISTURE

ADVANTAGE: 0.9% 1.2% 2.3% 1.2% 0.9%

GEOGRAPHY: U.S.2008 PERFORMANCE UPDATE

• DEKALB Harvest moisture and yield advantage creates total value advantage over the competition of $33-$55/acre

Value to Farmer Over Competitive Offering Combines Yield and Harvest Moisture Advantages

CORN SEED & TRAITS

$50$54

$33

$55

$41

10

Page 11: monsanto 12-09-08

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CORN SEED & TRAITS

Triple-Stack Penetration Accelerates, Creating Added Growth and Setting Stage for SmartStax Launch

U.S

. A

CR

ES

(IN

MIL

LIO

NS

)0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2007 2008 2009F 2010F

U.S. CORN TRAIT OPPORTUNITY: 2007-2010F

2007 2008 2009F 2010 Opportunity

TripleStack/SmartStax 17.6M 29.1M 34-35M 60-65M

Opportunity widens in 2010 with planned launch of SmartStax

GEOGRAPHY: U.S.2008 PERFORMANCE UPDATE

• The majority of U.S. branded corn seed orders to date are triple-stack orders, reflecting farmers’ demand for technology and yield

• Over the past two years, DEKALBVT Triple outperformed Pioneer® triples by nearly 9.7 bushels1 in >12,000 head-to-head comparisons across the U.S.

• Those two years were remarkably different in insect and moisture stress, yet DEKALB VT Triple consistently delivered a yield advantage

• This is value above and beyond the 15-20 bu/acre advantage of our triple-stack over conventional seed

1. Source: 2008 Monsanto and third party head-to-head comparisons of 5 leading DEKALB hybrids within each RM zone to Pioneer® products containing similar crop protection traits within 2 RM days as of November 23, 2008. Weighted average calculated to 15% moisture.

MONSANTO TRIPLE-STACK ACRESSMARTSTAX ACRE OPPORTUNITY

Page 12: monsanto 12-09-08

12

Leadership Continues With Next Game-Changer in Corn;SmartStax On Track to Reset Trait Platform in 2010

SMARTSTAX

COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY

LAUNCH TARGET: 2010TARGET ACRE

OPPORTUNITY: 60-65MVALUE PROPOSITION

2008 trials evaluating SmartStax in elite germplasm, quantifying sources of potential on-farm yield advantages:

Improved consistency: Primary pests

1-2%

Improved consistency: Secondary pests

1-2%

Reduced refuge1 3-6%

5-10%

CORN SEED & TRAITS

SmartStax STATUS

REFUGE REDUCTION STRATEGY:

• Precedent established with U.S. EPA on dual-mode-of-action traits:

• YieldGard VT PRO received reduced refuge in Southern geographies

• Bollgard II natural refuge in cotton

COMMERCIALTRACK:

• On track for 2010• All components have U.S. approvals• Final regulatory package with 5% refuge

request submitted in June 2008

1. Subject to the approval of the EPA

Page 13: monsanto 12-09-08

13

SOYBEAN SEED & TRAITS

Initial Soybean Yield Performance Continues to Reinforce Breeding Leadership

2008 PRELIMINARY U.S. COMPETITIVE SOYBEAN YIELD COMPARISON: ASGROW

GEOGRAPHY: U.S.OBJECTIVE: Grow footprint2008 PERFORMANCE UPDATE

• Yield data from 2008 indicates continued yield advantage for national brands versus best-in-class competitors

• The game-changing event in soybean yield will bethe introduction of Roundup Ready 2 Yield in 2009

1.1 1.2

0.7

1.5 1.4

1.0

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2006 2007 2008

ASGROW 3-YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE YIELD ADVANTAGE

ASGROW ANNUAL YIELD ADVANTAGE

BU

SH

ELS

/AC

RE

(AP

PR

OX

IMA

TE

DIF

FER

EN

CE

S)

Source: Preliminary- all Asgrow commodity Products; Commercial Data (Market development and side x side) as of 11/21/08; head-to-head comparisons within +/-0.4 RM vs. Pioneer & Syngenta>77,000 comparisons represented in the three years of rolling averages.

Page 14: monsanto 12-09-08

14

SOYBEAN SEED & TRAITS

VALUE PROPOSITIONYIELD

IMPROVEMENT ON AVERAGE YIELDS IN GROUPS 2 & 3:

3-5 bu/ac

INCREMENTAL YIELD VALUE TO

FARMER (VERSUS ROUNDUP READY):

$27-$45/ac

PRICING

SEAMLESS PRICE FOR FIRST-

GENERATION ROUNDUP READY

SEED (PER ACRE)1:

$49-$52

SEAMLESS PRICE FOR ROUNDUP READY 2 YIELD

SEED (PER ACRE)1:

$69-$72

ROUNDUP READY 2 YIELDLAUNCH PLANS

2009

►U.S. controlled commercial release on 1-2M acres in maturity groups 2 and 3► >50% of the U.S. soybean acres

planted are in groups 2 and 3► Multiple varieties available for 2009

release►EU import approval recently obtained,

demonstrating continued global acceptance

2010►Launch on 5-6M acres in the U.S. with

up to 30 new varieties with expanded maturity groups

2011 ►Expand majority of Asgrow varieties to Roundup Ready 2 Yield

Roundup Ready 2 Yield Soybeans Is One Of the Most-Anticipated Launches Because of Step-Change In Yield

1. Reflects seamless price to the farmer, including trait value, germplasm value and value provided by the seed treatment.

Page 15: monsanto 12-09-08

15

Roundup Ready 2 Yield Will Be the First Biotech Yield TraitOffered in Soybeans

► Power in the Pod: Roundup Ready 2 Yield soybean varieties produce more 3-bean pods per plant1

NEW: ROUNDUP READY 2 YIELD SOYBEANS: COMMERCIAL CHECKSPRELIMINARY 2008 COMPARISONS TO COMMERCIAL ROUNDUP READY SOYBEANS

SOYBEAN SEED & TRAITS

RELATIVE MATURITIES► 2 3

COMPARISONS: >100 >800APPROXIMATE BU/AC

ADVANTAGE FOR ROUNDUP READY 2 YIELD:

4.1 3.7

PERCENT YIELD ADVANTAGE FOR ROUNDUP

READY 2 YIELD:7.9% 7.0%

Bus

hels

per

Acr

e 56 57

52 53

35373941434547495153555759 COMPETITORS’ PRODUCT WITH

ROUNDUP READY TRAITROUNDUP READY 2 YIELD

SOURCE: Preliminary 2008 head-to-head comparisons of all Roundup Ready 2 Yield products available for sale in 2009 vs. national competitors Roundup Ready as of Nov. 19, 2008

SOURCE: 19 Monsanto field trials with seed counted from over 4,728 plants from 340 plots. p value <0.001 Data as of November 24, 2008.

Page 16: monsanto 12-09-08

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Roundup Ready 2 Yield Soybeans to Serve as Platform for Robust Soybean Pipeline

STATE OF AGRICULTURE:

A New Soybean Platform

ROUNDUP READY 2 YIELD

OIL TRAITS

DICAMBA-TOLERANT

HIGHER-YIELDING

SOYBEAN SEED & TRAITS

SOYBEAN RENAISSANCE►Roundup Ready 2 Yield becomes the

platform for soybean traits►Four traits in soybean pipeline in

Phase 3 focused on U.S. market:Vistive III soybeansDicamba-Tolerant soybeansOmega-3 soybeansHigher-Oil soybeans

►Phase 3 Insect-Protected + Roundup Ready 2 soybean targeted for Brazil; farmers currently spend ~$6.00/acre for insecticides and application

►Higher-yielding soybeans, with 10 percent yield increase target above Roundup Ready 2 Yield, have potential to reset soybean yield bar in middle of next decade

U.S. SOYBEAN ACRE TRAIT STACKING POTENTIAL

INSECT-PROTECTED BY ROUNDUP READY 2

BRAZIL SOYBEAN ACRE TRAIT STACKING POTENTIAL

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Investment in Traits Yields Significant Returns for Both Monsanto and Growers

R&D PIPELINE

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

~40XINITIAL

INVESTMENT

~$100MINITIAL R&D INVESTMENT

ROUNDUP READY SOYBEAN TRAITLIFE-TO-DATE NET SALES = ~$4.0B

GROWERS RECEIVED ~$11B1

OF FARM INCOME BENEFIT

1. SOURCE: Graham Brookes & Peter Barfoot PG Economics Ltd, UK June 2008 “GM crops: global socio-economic and environmental impacts 1996-2006” Amounts in nominal terms and represent global farm income benefit from 1996-2006. Argentina benefit excluded from Roundup Ready soybean grower farm income benefit.

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R&D PIPELINE

R&D Engine Is Poised to Launch Average of One Game-Changing Technology Every Other Year Through Mid-Decade

R&D PIPELINE: ADVANCED GAME-CHANGING TECHNOLOGIES

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TO MID-DECADE

Roundup Ready 2 YieldSoybeans

SmartStaxDrought-Tolerant Corn Family1

Nitrogen-Utilization Corn Family1

• Second-gen soybean trait platform

• China import approval received September 2008

• On track for 2009 release

• All-in-one corn trait platform

• On track for 2010 launch – Submitted for regulatory review and refuge reduction

• Value likely in improved yield under stress and potential for water replacement

• Targets ways to use nitrogen more efficiently

CONTROL HYBRID(76 BU/AC)

WITH GENE(94 BU/AC)

SUPERIOR, NE - FIELD TRIALS – 2007

1. Part of the Monsanto-BASF Yield and Stress R&D Collaboration

FARM PROGRESS SHOW – 2007

FARM PROGRESS SHOW – 2007

Page 19: monsanto 12-09-08

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R&D PIPELINE

Monsanto’s Biotech Pipeline Is Accelerating, With Analysis Under Way for January 2009 Update on Progress

R & D PIPELINE UPDATEFirst Quarter Earnings Call to

Highlight Annual R & D Pipeline Review and Update

Currently completing statistical analysis on 100’s of 2008 field trials; nearly 175 trial locations for yield & stress projects aloneMultiple projects expected to advance in January 2009

Q1 Q4

Q3Q2

Page 20: monsanto 12-09-08

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Monsanto’s Growth Opportunity Lies at the Intersection of Demand, Innovation and Execution

More demand requires more YIELD

More yield requires more INNOVATION

More innovation delivers more GROWTH

Monsanto’s Simple Philosophy on Opportunity:

SUMMARY