monsanto 02-15-05
TRANSCRIPT
1
CREDIT SUISSE FIRST BOSTON Agrochemicals ConferenceLondon
Feb. 15, 2005
BRETT BEGEMANNExecutive Vice President, International
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Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements contained in this presentation, such as statements concerning the company's anticipated financial results, current and future product performance, regulatory approvals, currency impact, business and financial plans and other non-historical facts are "forward-looking statements." These statements are based on current expectations and currently available information. However, since these statements are based on factors that involve risks and uncertainties, the company’s actual performance and results may differ materially from those described or implied by such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, among others: the company's exposure to various contingencies, including those related to Solutia Inc., litigation, intellectual property, regulatory compliance (including seed quality), environmental contamination and antitrust; successful completion and operation of recent and proposed acquisitions; fluctuations in exchange rates and other developments related to foreign currencies and economies; increased generic and branded competition for the company's Roundup herbicide; the accuracy of the company’s estimates and projections, for example, those with respect to product returns and grower use of our products and related distribution inventory levels; the effect of weather conditions and commodity markets on the agriculture business; the success of the company’s research and development activities and the speed with which regulatory authorizations and product launches may be achieved; domestic and foreign social, legal and political developments, especially those relating to agricultural products developed through biotechnology; the company’s ability to successfully market new and existing products in new and existing domestic and international markets; the company’s ability to obtain payment for the products that it sells; the company's ability to achieve and maintain protection for its intellectual property; the effects of the company's accounting policies and changes in generally accepted accounting principles; the company's ability to fund its short-term financing needs; and other risks and factors detailed in the company's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements, which are current only as of the date of this release. The company disclaims any current intention or obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements or any of the factors that may affect actual results, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
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Non-GAAP Financial Information
This presentation may use the non-GAAP financial measures of “free cash flow,” ongoing earnings per share (EPS), and Return on Capital (ROC). We define free cash flow as the total of cash flows from operating activities and cash flows from investing activities. A non-GAAP EPS financial measure, which we refer to as EPS on an ongoing basis, may exclude the impact of restructuring charges, charges associated with the settlement of litigation, gains and losses on the sale of assets, and certain other items. The specific items that are excluded from, and result in, our non-GAAP EPS financial measure are clearly identified as such in this presentation. ROC means net income exclusive of after-tax interest expenses, divided by the average of the beginning year and ending year net capital employed, as defined in the reconciliation at the end of this presentation. The presentation of free cash flow, ongoing EPS and ROC is intended to supplement investors’ understanding of our operating performance. These non-GAAP financial measures may not be comparable to similar measures used by other companies. Furthermore, these non-GAAP financial measures are not intended to replace net income (loss), cash flows, financial position, or comprehensive income (loss), as determined in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States. The non-GAAP financial measures used in this presentation are reconciled to the most directly comparable financial measures calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP, which can be found at the end of this presentation.
Fiscal Year
In this presentation, unless otherwise specified, references to Monsanto’s fiscal years refer to the 12-month period ending August 31.
Trademarks
Roundup, Roundup Ready, Bollgard, Bollgard II, YieldGard and Vistive are trademarks owned by Monsanto Company and its wholly-owned subsidiaries.
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Value Shift from Crop Chemicals to Seeds and Traits Well Under Way
Sources: U.S. 1996-2003 Doane Agrotrak & Seed Studies; 2008 Monsanto estimatesCalendar years
CROP CHEMICALS GERMPLASM BIOTECH TRAITS
GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRY REVIEW
1996 $7.6 BILLION
2003$8.4 BILLION
2008F $9.1 BILLION
$3.0
$0.1
$4.5$3.5
$1.3
$3.6
$3.8
$2.7
$2.6
5
MARKET LEADERSHIP
Seeds and Traits Are a Growing Contributor to Monsanto’s Gross Profit
2001 2003 2005F PRO FORMA
ROUNDUP AND OTHER GLYPHOSATE-BASED HERBICIDES
SEEDS AND TRAITS
$2.6 BILLION $2.3 BILLION $2.9 BILLION
ALL OTHER AG PRODUCTIVITY SEMINIS
GROSS PROFIT
5%
27%50%
23%
47%30%
23%
56%
23%
16%
6
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
Sources: Phillips McDougall, Monsanto reportsCalendar year for all companies but MonsantoSyngenta pro forma for acquisition of Advanta and Golden Harvest (Sources: Phillips McDougall and news releases)
MARKET LEADERSHIP
Monsanto Raises the Bar for Leadership in Global Seeds with Addition of Seminis
2003 SEED AND TRAIT REVENUE
$ M
ILLI
ON
S
DUPONT SYNGENTA KWS TAKII DELTA & PINE LAND
DOW
MONSANTO PRO FORMA
MONSANTO LIMAGRAIN SEMINIS BAYER SAKATA
7
KEY MARKET ACRES
AVAILABLE MARKET
PERCENT PENETRATED
ASI EU S. AFRICA
80M 30M 7M
2% 10% 43%
LICENSEDBRANDU.S.
33%14%
Improvements in Corn Seed Breeding Expanding EU/SA Market Share
Corn Breeding
DISCOVERY PHASE IProof of Concept
PHASE IIEarly Development
PHASE IIIAdv. Development
PHASE IVPre-Launch
LAUNCH
CREATING VALUE
CORN MARKET SHARE GROWTH
MARKET LEADERSHIP - BREEDING
Monsanto’s branded corn germplasm out-yielded competitors’ across EU mid-maturities and South Africa in 2004 trials
Comparable performance in Mediterranean region versus leading competitor
Stronger pipeline under development for important EU silage market
• In 2005, Monsanto’s branded seed gained 2 market share points in EU, 3 points in South Africa
• Elite, high-yielding germplasm refreshes product portfolio at high end of pricing
• New licensing strategy for corn in Europe/Africa under development 0%
2%4%
6%
8%10%
12%
2001 2002 2003 200420%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2001 2002 2003 2004
FRANCE SOUTH AFRICA
8
KEY MARKET ACRES
AVAILABLE MARKET
PERCENT PENETRATED
U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA
5M TBD TBD
0% 0% 0%
Vistive Moved from Discovery to Launch in Three Years Through Molecular Breeding
VistiveLow Linolenic Soy
First of a three-product step-change in oil profiles
Most oil already under contract with food companies
Oil to be in on-the-shelf consumer products in late 2005
DISCOVERY PHASE IProof of Concept
PHASE IIEarly Development
PHASE IIIAdv. Development
PHASE IVPre-Launch
LAUNCH
• Contract grown, value shared. Monsanto sells to growers, processors pay grower premium and royalty to Monsanto after harvest and crushing
• To be stacked with Mid-Oleic before full market penetration is achieved
• 1 acre = approximately 500 lbs. of oil
OIL PROFILES ALONG THE 3-STEP CHANGE IMPROVEMENT
STANDARD SOYBEAN
LOW LIN
MID OLEIC + LOW LIN
ZERO SAT + MID OLEIC +
LOW LIN
LINOLENIC18:3
LINOLEIC18:2
OLEIC18:1
SATS18:0 / 16:0
MARKET LEADERSHIP - BREEDING
CREATING VALUE
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Seminis Has Largest, Most Diverse Germplasm Pool in Vegetable Industry
Vegetable Breeding
Germplasm investment nearly double that of closest competitor
Vegetable seed germplasm is proprietary, scarce
75% of R&D devoted to breeding
Between 20%-25% of commercial products come from new hybrids introduced in prior two years
DISCOVERY PHASE IProof of Concept
PHASE IIEarly Development
PHASE IIIAdv. Development
PHASE IVPre-Launch
LAUNCH
KEY MARKET POSITION
MARKET POSITION
NAFTALATIN
AMERICAEUROPE-AFRICA
1 1 1
ASIA PACIFIC
1
• Seminis branded seed recognized globally: Royal Sluis, Petoseed, Bruinsma, and Asgrow Vegetable
• Breeding valued for quality, taste, health benefits, disease control
• New seeds have greatest pricing opportunity
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2002 2003 2004 2005F
VEGETABLE FRESHNESS INDEX
MARKET LEADERSHIP - BREEDING
CREATING VALUE
10
Biotechnology Is Most Rapidly Adopted Technology in History of Agriculture
AC
RE
S I
N M
ILL I
ON
S
Source: Monsanto estimates
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
CANOLA
COTTON
SOYBEANSCORN
MARKET LEADERSHIP - BIOTECHNOLOGY
GLOBAL MONSANTO PLANTED BIOTECH ACRES
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005F
MIL
LIO
NS
OF
AC
RE
S
Market Potential for Roundup Ready Corn is Poised to Accelerate
MARKET LEADERSHIP - BIOTECHNOLOGY
Roundup ReadyCornCREATING VALUE
DISCOVERY PHASE IProof of Concept
PHASE IIEarly Development
PHASE IIIAdv. Development
PHASE IVPre-Launch
LAUNCH
Current forecast of 20M acres of Roundup Ready corn in 2005 U.S. season
With European import approval for single trait, market potentialnow 50M acres in U.S.
Production plans under way to accelerate growth in 2006
ARGENTINA
5M
<1%
KEY MARKET AREAS
TARGET MARKET
PERCENT PENETRATED
U.S.
50M
32%
U.S. ROUNDUP READY CORN ACREAGE GROWTH
• U.S. trait fee of $8-$10 per acre in Monsanto branded seed
• Grower profits average of $12 per acre on yield gains alone; additional cost savings on labor, fuel and equipmentProvides grower greater flexibility in weed control
12
Corn Product Mix Continues to Accelerate Toward Stacked Offerings
AC
RE
S (
MIL
LIO
NS
)
Source: Monsanto estimates
MARKET LEADERSHIP - BIOTECHNOLOGY
U.S. CORN TRAIT ACRES
0
10
20
30
40
50
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005F
STACKED TRAITS YIELDGARD CORN BORER & YIELDGARD ROOTWORM
SINGLE TRAIT
ROUNDUP READY CORN SINGLE TRAIT
13
Introduction of Ingard II Accelerates Monsanto’s Growth in Australian Cotton Market
Cotton Traits
Biotech trait acreage has grown to approximately 600k acres from 275k in 2004
More than two-thirds of cotton acres planted are Ingard II varieties
Approximately 50% of all biotech cotton acres are stacked Ingard II and Roundup Ready
DISCOVERY PHASE IProof of Concept
PHASE IIEarly Development
PHASE IIIAdv. Development
PHASE IVPre-Launch
LAUNCH
MARKET LEADERSHIP - BIOTECHNOLOGY
CREATING VALUE
AUSTRALIA
0.5-0.8M
80%
KEY MARKET AREAS
TARGET MARKET
PERCENT PENETRATED
U.S.
10-15M
75%
• Ingard II requires an average of 85% less insecticide than conventional cotton
• Value reflects better insect protection, higher yields, farmer convenience and flexibility
AUSTRALIA MONSANTO BIOTECH ACRES
% T
OT
AL
AC
RE
S
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2003 2004 2005
Stacked Ingard/Ingard II RR Cotton
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Seeds and Traits R&D Is More Than Just Biotechnology; Two Platforms Drive Pipeline Opportunities
INNOVATION - PIPELINE
SM
ALL
-AC
RE
CR
OP
S
LAR
GE
-AC
RE
CR
OP
S
BR
EE
DIN
GFARMER
BENEFITS
PROCESSOR BENEFITS
CONSUMERBENEFITS
BIO
TE
CH
NO
LOG
Y FARMER BENEFITS
PROCESSOR BENEFITS
CONSUMERBENEFITS
ROUNDUP READY FLEX COTTONPHASE IVPre-Launch
HIGH-LYSINE CORNPHASE IVPre-Launch
OMEGA-3 SOYBEANSPHASE IIEarly Development
PROCESSOR PREFERRED CORNPHASE IVPre-Launch
VISTIVE LOW-LIN SOYBEANSPHASE IVPre-Launch
GENOMICS CONVENTIONAL BREEDING
MOLECULAR BREEDING
CROP ANALYTICS BIOTECHNOLOGY
PIPELINE EXAMPLES
ELITE CORN GERMPLASMPHASE IVPre-Launch
15
KEY MARKET ACRES
AVAILABLE MARKET
PERCENT PENETRATED
U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA
<1M TBD TBD
0% 0% 0%
Breeding Breakthrough Improves the Taste and Mouth-Feel of Soy-Based Foods
Improved-ProteinSoybeans for Food
Created through breeding technologies
Improves taste and mouth-feel
Consumer applications in beverages and meat alternatives
Developed with molecular markers and analytical screenings to accelerate breeding
Produced in high-yielding varieties for testing
DISCOVERY PHASE IProof of Concept
PHASE IIEarly Development
PHASE IIIAdv. Development
PHASE IVPre-Launch
LAUNCH
• Contract grown, value shared. Monsanto sells to growers, processors pay grower premium and royalty to Monsanto after harvest and crushing
• Small acres, but high value per acre
INNOVATION - BREEDING
CREATING VALUE
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Molecular Breeding Can Be Applied to Seminis’ Sweet Corn Breeding Programs
Knowledge Transfer to Sweet Corn
DISCOVERY PHASE IProof of Concept
PHASE IIEarly Development
PHASE IIIAdv. Development
PHASE IVPre-Launch
LAUNCH
• Breeding knowledge transfer increases potential new product offerings
• Molecular breeding speeds creation of new hybrids
• Accelerated genetic gains have potential to translate to market share gains, higher market value
INNOVATION - BREEDING
Immediate access to broad corn germplasm base
Corn genotyping capabilities applicable across all corn germplasm including sweet corn
Enables efficient selection for disease and quality traits using marker-assisted selection
CREATING VALUE
WORLDWIDE
4
KEY MARKET POSITION
MARKET POSITION
17
KEY MARKET ACRES
AVAILABLE MARKET
PERCENT PENETRATED
DISCOVERY PHASE IProof of Concept
PHASE IIEarly Development
PHASE IIIAdv. Development
PHASE IVPre-Launch
LAUNCH
Roundup ReadyFlex Cotton
Expanded window of over-the-top application for more “flexible” weed control
Increased grower convenience
Reduced need for specialized spray equipment
8 cotton seed companies currently breeding trait into varieties
Added Flexibility Means Better Weed Control, Greater Value in Cotton
U.S. AUSTRALIA
10-15M 0.5-0.8M
0% 0%
• Value reflects greater convenience and enhanced weed control. Lifts the value of the Roundup Readytrait
• Roundup ReadyFlex Cotton will be available only with Bollgard II, which also should boost Bollgard IIadoption
INNOVATION - BIOTECHNOLOGY
CREATING VALUE
18
KEY MARKET ACRES
AVAILABLE MARKET
PERCENT PENETRATED
U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA
4M 1M 4M
0% 0% 0%
High Lysine Corn
Lower cost of animal feed ration – lysine –which cannot be produced by animals, so must be obtained through feed
Improved amino acid balance
Increased total energy
Excellent performance demonstrated in feeding trials to date
First of a two-product step-change in lysine content
DISCOVERY PHASE IProof of Concept
PHASE IIEarly Development
PHASE IIIAdv. Development
PHASE IVPre-Launch
LAUNCH
High Lysine Enhances Animal Feed, Shifts Value to Seed
• Market value for feed-grade lysine in roughly $1 billion annually
• Value shared with Cargill through 50/50 Renessen joint venture
INNOVATION - BIOTECHNOLOGY
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800 CONTROL WITH GENE
FRE
E L
YS
INE
(P
PM
)
TARGET
SOUTH AMERICA U.S.
LYSINE TOTALS IN TESTING
CREATING VALUE
19
KEY MARKET ACRES
AVAILABLE MARKET
PERCENT PENETRATED
U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA
TBD TBD TBD
0% 0% 0%
Drought Stress Tolerance Will Be a Family of High Value Traits
Drought-TolerantCorn
Yield protection on all acres against water deficits
Yield enhancement on all acres through improved water use and cost savings on irrigated acres
Two gene leads obtained positive results with more than one transformed event
DISCOVERY PHASE IProof of Concept
PHASE IIEarly Development
PHASE IIIAdv. Development
PHASE IVPre-Launch
LAUNCH
• Pricing depends on choice of market
• Stacking with weed and insect control enhances the margin opportunity
• Irrigation currently costs $50 to $100 per acre
INNOVATION - BIOTECHNOLOGY
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
YIE
LD I
NC
RE
AS
E
(BU
/AC
)
EVENT 1 EVENT 2 EVENT 30
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
EVENT 1 EVENT 2 EVENT 3
3 EVENTS: GENE 1 3 EVENTS: GENE 2
GERMPLASM 1 GERMPLASM 2
CREATING VALUE
YIELD INCREASE IN TWO GENE TRIALS
20
Gross Profit Growth Accelerates with Addition of Seminis to Monsanto Businesses
SEEDS AND TRAITS ALL OTHER ROUNDUP AND OTHER GLYPHOSATE-BASED HERBICIDES
GROSS PROFIT
$ M
ILLI
ON
S
$ M
ILLI
ON
S
MONSANTO PRO FORMA1
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
2004 2005F 2006F
7% CAGR
1 Pro forma for acquisition of Seminis
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
2004 2005F 2006F
MONSANTO SEED/TRAIT PRO FORMA1
15% CAGR
FINANCIAL GROWTH
21
BASE MONSANTO GUIDANCE
UPSIDE MONSANTO GUIDANCE
PRO FORMA FOR ACQUISITION OF SEMINIS
Guidance for Ongoing EPS Reflects Addition ofSeminis Earnings
EPS ON AN ONGOING BASIS
$1.00
$1.25
$1.50
$1.75
$2.00
$2.25
$2.50
2004A 2005F 2006F
• 2005 guidance range increased to $1.85 to $2.00
• 10% base business growth for 2006 expected on increased 2005 guidance
• Earnings in 2005 and 2006 affected by Seminis inventory step-up
• Seminis is expected to be $0.20 accretive to Monsanto in 2007
FINANCIAL GROWTH
22
Acquisition Also Contributes to Free Cash Generation Near-Term
FREE CASH FLOW Seminis expected to generate $50M free cash in 2005 and $75M in 2006
Current $500M share repurchase program will continue; scheduled completion July 2006
Dividends will continue to be considered to return additional value to shareowners-$800
-$550
-$300
-$50
$200
$450
$700
$950
PRO FORMA FOR ACQUISITION OF SEMINIS
2004 2005F 2006F
GUIDANCE PRE-ACQUISIITON
GUIDANCE POST-ACQUISITION
FINANCIAL GROWTH
23
A Clear Focus To Deliver On Commitments
Market LeadershipLargest global seed and trait company Global reach in high-value agriculture segments
Technological InnovationLeading breeding and biotechnology platformsProven, highly productive new product pipeline
Financial GrowthEPS and free cash flow growth reflect seeds and traits leadershipCommitment to return value to shareowners through dividends, share repurchases, investments
24
Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Reconciliation of Non-GAAP EPS
Reconciliation of Free Cash Flow
$ Millions Fiscal Year 2005 Target
12 Months Ended Aug. 31, 2004
Net Cash Provided (Required) by Operations $1,050 $1,261
Net Cash Provided (Required) by Investing Activities $(1,800) $(262)
Free Cash Flow $(750) $999
Net Cash Provided (Required) by Financing Activities N/A $(243)
Net Increase (Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents N/A $756
Fiscal Year 2006 Target
$975
$(300)
$675
N/A
N/A
12 Months Ended Aug. 31, 2005
12 Months Ended Aug. 31, 2006
Net Income (Loss) $0.86-$1.06 $2.04 - $2.22
Estimated Purchase Accounting Adjustments $0.65 - $0.70Tax Benefit on Loss from Sale of European Wheat andBarley Business
Net Income (Loss) from Ongoing Business $1.85 - $2.00 $2.04 - $2.22
$ per share
Solutia-Related Charge $0.68
12 Months Ended Aug. 31, 2004
$0.99
$0.36
--
$1.61
--
Restructuring Charges -- Net --$0.022004 Discontinued Operations and Related
Restructurings-- Net
--
--
--
--
$0.24Goodwill Impairment Charge for Global Wheat Business
-- --
-- --
--
--
$(0.39)