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21
1 TERRY CREWS CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER GOLDMAN SACHS Thirteenth Annual Agricultural Biotech Forum February 10, 2009

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Page 1: monsanto 02_10_09

1

TERRY CREWSCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER

GOLDMAN SACHS Thirteenth Annual Agricultural Biotech Forum

February 10, 2009

Page 2: monsanto 02_10_09

2

Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements contained in this presentation are "forward-looking statements," such as statements concerning the company's anticipated financial results, current and future product performance, regulatory approvals, business and financial plans and other non-historical facts. These statements are based on current expectations and currently available information. However, since these statements are based on factors that involve risks and uncertainties, the company's actual performance and results may differ materially from those described or implied by such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, among others: continued competition in seeds, traits and agricultural chemicals; the company's exposure to various contingencies, including those related to intellectual property protection, regulatory compliance and the speed with which approvals are received, and public acceptance of biotechnology products; the success of the company's research and development activities; the outcomes of major lawsuits; developments related to foreign currencies and economies; successful operation of recent acquisitions; fluctuations in commodity prices; compliance with regulations affecting our manufacturing; the accuracy of the company's estimates related to distribution inventory levels; the company's ability to fund its short-term financing needs and to obtain payment for the products that it sells; the effect of weather conditions, natural disasters and accidents on the agriculture business or the company's facilities; and other risks and factors detailed in the company's most recent periodic report to the SEC. Undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements, which are current only as of the date of this presentation. The company disclaims any current intention or obligation to update any forward-looking statements or any of the factors that may affect actual results.

TrademarksTrademarks owned by Monsanto Company and its wholly-owned subsidiaries are italicized in this presentation. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

© 2009 Monsanto Company

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3

Non-GAAP Financial Information

This presentation may use the non-GAAP financial measures of “free cash flow,” earnings per share (EPS) on an ongoing basis and Return on Capital (ROC). We define free cash flow as the total of cash flows from operating activities and investing activities. A non-GAAP EPS financial measure, which we refer to as ongoing EPS, excludes certain after-tax items that we do not consider part of ongoing operations, which are identified in the reconciliation. ROC means net income (without the effect of certain items) exclusive of after-tax interest expenses, divided by the average of the beginning year and ending year net capital employed, as defined in the reconciliation. Our presentation of non-GAAP financial measures is intended to supplement investors’ understanding of our operating performance, not replace net income (loss), cash flows, financial position, or comprehensive income (loss), as determined in accordance with GAAP. Furthermore, these non-GAAP financial measures may not be comparable to similar measures used by other companies. The non-GAAP financial measures used in this presentation are reconciled to the most directly comparable financial measures calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP.

With respect to the time period prior to Sept. 1, 2000, references to Monsanto in this presentation also refer to the agricultural business of Pharmacia.

FISCAL YEAR:References to year, or to fiscal year, are on a fiscal year basis and refer to the 12-month period ending August 31.

Page 4: monsanto 02_10_09

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

2007 2008 2009F 2012F

Yield and Innovation Create Runway of Growth to 2012 Driven By Seeds and Traits

4

$7.3 -$7.5B

GROSS PROFIT COMMITMENT: 2007-2012F

GR

OS

S P

RO

FIT

(in

mill

ions

)

~2.25X2007 BASELINE

$9.5 -$9.75B

$4.40 -$4.50ON-GOING

EPS

$4.2B

SEEDS & GENOMICS GROSS PROFIT

AG PRODUCTIVITY GROSS PROFIT

BASELINE

$6.2B

2012 GROWTH RANGEGross profit targeted to more than double from 2007 through 2012

STRATEGIC PLAYBOOK

All growth is organic, from base business and pipeline U.S. Corn International Corn Soybeans Cotton Seminis R&D Pipeline

Earnings continue to translate into operating cash, and value created for shareowners through combination of acquisitions, share repurchases and dividends

Page 5: monsanto 02_10_09

Step Change in Roundup Reflects Historical Decisions on Price, Volume, Cost, and Working Capital

5

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2007 2008 2009F 2012F

Volu

me

(M R

EGs)

Non-Branded Branded

GLOBAL VOLUME (EQUIVALENT GALLONS): 252M 257M ~230M ~300M

BRANDED PRICE BAND (PER EQUIVALENT GALLON): >$11-$13 ~$20 >$20 $16-$18

TOTAL ROUNDUP AND OTHER GLYPHOSATE - BASED

HERBICIDES GROSS PROFIT$854M $2.0B $2.4-$2.5B $1.9B

ROUNDUP AND OTHER GLYPHOSATE-BASED HERBICIDES: BRANDED AND NON-BRANDED TRENDS – 2007-2009F

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Corn Gross Profit in FY2009 Targeted to Grow 25 Percent; Margins Up 300 Basis Points

6

CORN SEED AND TRAITS SEGMENT2009 UPDATES► Target to increase gross profit by more than 25%► Target to increase gross margins by 300 basis

points► On track to deliver 1 – 2 share points in DEKALB

brand and 1 point gain in American Seeds in U.S.► Branded triple mix expected to increase to 70%

in U.S.2012 MILESTONE TARGETS► Advanced U.S. lead drought-tolerant corn project

to Phase 4► Advanced SmartStax to Phase 4 – Commercial

Launch expected in 2010► Grow U.S. DEKALB corn share to 30-34 share

points; grow American Seeds to ~15 share points

CORN SEED & TRAITS

GROSS PROFIT PROGRESSION

GLOBAL GROSS PROFIT SPLIT

$1,721$2,174

$2,800

2007 2008 2009F 2012F

$4,500- $4,600

70%

30%U.S.Intl. 70%

30%

2008 2012F

$ in millions

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7

Triple-Stack Penetration Accelerates Setting Stage for SmartStax Launch

U.S

. A

CR

ES

(IN

MIL

LIO

NS

)0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2007 2008 2009F 2010F

U.S. CORN TRAIT OPPORTUNITY: 2007-2010F

2007 2008 2009F 2010 Opportunity

TripleStack/SmartStax 17.6M 29.1M 34-35M 55-65M

Opportunity widens in 2010 with planned launch of SmartStax

GEOGRAPHY: U.S.2009 PERFORMANCE UPDATE

• Expect approximately 70% of U.S. branded corn seed orders to be triple-stack orders, reflecting farmers’ demand for technology and yield

• Over the past two years, DEKALB VT Triple outperformed competition by nearly 9.7 bushels per acre 1

• This is value above and beyond the 15-20 bu/acre advantage of our triple-stack over conventional seed

MONSANTO TRIPLE-STACK ACRES

SMARTSTAX ACRE OPPORTUNITY

1. Source: 2008 Monsanto and third party head-to-head comparisons of 5 leading DEKALB hybrids within each RM zone to Pioneer® products containing similar crop protection traits within 2 RM days as of November 23, 2008. Weighted average calculated to 15% moisture.

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8

SmartStax Offers Farmers Most Complete Package of Insect and Weed Control; Expands Market Opportunity

R&D PipelineSmartStax Corn

STATUS: ADVANCED

Phase 4PROJECT CONCEPT:

SmartStax combines the following herbicide-tolerant and insect-protection traits for the most complete control: • YieldGard VT Rootworm with

Roundup Ready Corn 2 and YieldGard VT PRO

• Herculex I and Herculex RW• Liberty Link

VALUE:

LAUNCH-COUNTRY ACRES1: 55-65M

2020 VALUE2: >$500M

WHOLE-FARM YIELD IMPROVEMENT ESTIMATES:

1IMPROVED CONSISTENCY FORPRIMARY AND SECONDARY PESTS 3

2 REDUCED REFUGE 4

TOTAL: 5-10% 1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where technology fits at Monsanto's current 2007 market share in respective crops

2. 2020 value reflects gross sales opportunity in launch country in year 2020

3. As compared to YieldGard VT Triple 4. Subject to EPA approval

Liberty Link® is a registered trademark of Bayer CropScience AGHerculex® is a registered trademark of Dow Agrosciences LLC

Second-generation YieldGard corn borer trait, a key SmartStaxcomponent, demonstrates incremental yield benefit of 4 percent over first-generation corn borer traits in preliminary data from 2 years of comparisons

Fewer damaged kernels from earworm drives yield advantage

NEW: 2007 & 2008 SmartStax EFFICACY TRIALS

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

0.01.02.03.04.05.06.0

CRW Root Damage Ratings

Corn Earworm Damage

Dam

aged

Are

a (c

m2)

Nod

e In

jury

Sca

le 0

-3

Roundup Ready Corn

Herculex® Corn Borer

YieldGard VT Triple PRO

SmartStax

Herculex® Rootworm

YieldGard VT Rootworm

with Roundup Ready Corn 2

SmartStaxRoundup Ready Corn

Page 9: monsanto 02_10_09

LATIN AMERICA: TRAIT OPPORTUNITY

ARGENTINA BRAZIL

APPROVED TRAITS • YieldGard Corn Borer• Roundup Ready Corn 2• YieldGard Corn Borer + Roundup

Ready Corn 2 Stack

• YieldGard Corn Borer• Roundup Ready Corn 2

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

• Granted approval for stack in August 2007

• YieldGard Corn Borer approved in February 2007

• Roundup Ready Corn 2 approved January 2008

2010 OUTLOOK • Increase penetration of YieldGardCorn Borer + Roundup Ready Corn 2

• Target gaining 1-2 share points

• Increase penetration of YieldGardCorn Borer

• Launch Roundup Ready Corn 2• Continue process to approve

double-stack product• Target gaining 1-2 share points

2009 TRAIT RETAIL PRICING

• YieldGard Corn Borer: $12-$13• YieldGard Corn Borer + Roundup

Ready Corn 2 Stack: $15-$16

• YieldGard Corn Borer: $14-$15

CORN BORER CONTROL 7M 15-20MGLYPHOSATE

TOLERANCE 9M 15-20MROOTWORM CONTROL 5M 5M

Increasing Biotech Penetration in Brazil and Argentina Sets Stage for Significant Contributions to Gross Profit

2010

TR

AIT

O

PP

OR

TU

NIT

IES

A

CR

ES

9

Page 10: monsanto 02_10_09

10

Roundup Ready 2 Yield Soybeans Drive Long-Term Growth of Leading Soybean Platform

SOYBEAN SEED & TRAITSGROSS PROFIT PROGRESSION

$588 $725

2007 2008 2009F 2012F

~$1,200

~$700

$ in millions

1. Target market defined as acres where technology is applicable, not necessarily a projection of acres penetrated by 2012.

SOY SEED AND TRAITS SEGMENT2009 UPDATES► On track to gain 1 share point in Asgrow brand► Controlled commercial release of Roundup

Ready 2 Yield soybeans on 1.5M acres► Roundup Ready soybean in Brazil appears to

be on track to approach 60% penetration mark2012 MILESTONE TARGETS► 2009 U.S. controlled commercial release of

Roundup Ready 2 Yield on 1.5M acres ► Large-scale launch of Roundup Ready 2 Yield

in 2010; target market of 45-55M acres 1

► Grow Asgrow brand to 25 share points in the U.S. by 2012

► Increase Brazil Roundup Ready soybean penetration to 80 percent by 2012 in anticipation of launch of insect-protected Roundup Ready 2 Yield soybeans

GLOBAL GROSS PROFIT SPLIT

80%

20%U.S.Intl.

2008

85%

15%

2012F

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11

VALUE PROPOSITIONYIELD IMPROVEMENT ON

AVERAGE YIELDS IN GROUPS 2 & 3:

~3.8 bu/acINCREMENTAL YIELD

VALUE TO FARMER (VERSUS ROUNDUP

READY):~$38/ac

PRICING

SEAMLESS PRICE FOR FIRST-GENERATION

ROUNDUP READY SEED (PER ACRE)1:

$49-$52

SEAMLESS PRICE FOR ROUNDUP READY 2 YIELD

SEED (PER ACRE)1:$69-$72

Roundup Ready 2 Yield Step Change in Yield to Revolutionize Soybean Farming

1. Reflects seamless price to the farmer, including trait value, germplasm value and value provided by the seed treatment.

RELATIVE MATURITIES: 2 3 Overall

COMPARISONS: >1,000 >2,900 >3,900

APPROXIMATE BU/AC ADVANTAGE FOR ROUNDUP

READY 2 YIELD:4.6 3.8 3.8

PERCENT YIELD ADVANTAGE FOR ROUNDUP READY 2 YIELD1: 9.1% 7.3% 7.4%

Bus

hels

per

Acr

e

54.5 55.5 55.2

49.951.7 51.4

35

40

45

50

55

60COMPETITORS’ PRODUCT WITH ROUNDUP READY TRAITROUNDUP READY 2 YIELD

Two year summary (2007-2008) of head-to-head comparisons between all Roundup Ready 2 Yield products available for sale in 2009 vs. national competitor Roundup Ready products. Final data as of December 9, 2008.

NEW: FINAL ROUNDUP READY 2 YIELD SOYBEANS VERSUS COMMERCIAL CHECKSCOMPARISONS TO COMMERCIAL ROUNDUP READY SOYBEANS – 2 YEAR SUMMARY

Page 12: monsanto 02_10_09

Cotton Gross Profit to Show U.S. Turnaround in 2010, As India Penetration Expands

12

COTTON SEED & TRAITSGROSS PROFIT PROGRESSION

GLOBAL GROSS PROFIT SPLIT

$267 $313

2007 2008 2009F 2012F

70%

30%U.S.

Intl. 55%

45%

~$500

~$300

2008 2012F

2008 PERFORMANCE UPDATE ► In > 530 trials, new class of Deltapine

Bollgard II/Roundup Ready Flex varieties outperforms the competition and existing Deltapine varieties, from a value perspective, by nearly 5%-12% across U.S. cotton-growing regions

2012 MILESTONE TARGETS

► Expand second-generation trait penetration in U.S. Deltapine brand

► Expand Bollgard II acres in India; currently 25 percent penetrated in 18-20M acre opportunity

► Grow U.S. Deltapine brand share from current share of 41 percent to ~50 percent by 2012

► Grow Brazil branded cotton share by 10 points to 31 percent; grow India to 12 percent share

$ in millions

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13

Vegetable Platform Becomes Third Largest Crop by 2012 with Margin Goal of 65 Percent

VEGETABLE SEEDSGROSS MARGIN PROGRESSION

GLOBAL GROSS PROFIT SPLIT

44% 53% ~55%

2007 2008 2009F 2012F

90%

10%

Open FieldProtected Culture

60%

40%

2008 2012F

2012 MILESTONE TARGETS► Integrate De Ruiter protected culture

seeds►Continue margin expansion toward

goal of 65 percent by 2012 Price existing products to value Launch new products with increased

value Expand high-margin protected-

culture segment

►Accelerate new product launches via use of molecular markers

65%

Page 14: monsanto 02_10_09

Strong Pipeline Reflects Growing Innovation and Value of Emerging Yield and Stress Traits

DISCOVERY PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 3 PHASE 4

Broad-Acre, Higher-Yielding Family

FAMILY TRAITS► HIGHSOYBEANS:BROAD-ACRE YIELD

Broad-Acre, Higher-Yielding Family

Nitrogen-Utilization Family

FAMILY TRAITS►

FAMILY TRAITS► MEGA

HIGH

Drought-Tolerant FamilyFAMILY TRAITS►

CORN:BROAD-ACRE YIELD

YIE

LD &

ST

RE

SS

C

OLL

AB

OR

AT

ION

High-oil soybeans

Dicamba-tolerant soybeansVistive III

Higher -YieldingRoundup Ready 2 Yield canola

Bollgard III cotton

Omega-3 soybeans

MEGA>$1BM

HIGH$300M-$500M

MID$150M-$300M

Corn Soybeans Cotton Canola

2020 VALUE RANGES:

LOW<$150M

14

Insect-protected Roundup Ready 2 Yield soybeans

Note: 2020 value ranges reflect expected annual gross sales in launch country in 2020.

HIGH

SmartStaxcorn

Dicamba and glufosinate-tolerant cotton

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15

New Game-Changing Traits Enter Mid-Term Launch Horizon

2012 TO END OF DECADE

Drought Tolerant Corn Family 1

Nitrogen-Utilization Corn Family1

Higher Yielding Soybeans 1

2nd

Generation Drought 1

• Advanced to Phase IV• First dry-land drought

product submitted for FDA approval

• 5 years of testing exceeded 6%-10% yield improvement target

• Phase I Project• Consistent yield benefit

after two years of testing• 8% yield benefit at lower

nitrogen levels

• Advanced to Phase III• Built upon yield platform

of Roundup Ready 2 Yield

• Lead events 1 & 2 experienced averageyields of 7.4% and 6.7%, respectively

• Phase II project• 9% yield advantage in

2008 in water-stressed environments

• Currently selecting commercial event for broad acre application

CONTROL HYBRID(76 BU/AC)

WITH GENE(94 BU/AC)

SUPERIOR, NE - FIELD TRIALS – 2007

1. Part of the Monsanto-BASF Yield and Stress R&D Collaboration

FARM PROGRESS SHOW – 2007

TransgenicControl

Dayton, Iowa -- 2008

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16

Strong Cash Position Gives Monsanto the Resources to Extend Its Competitive Lead

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F

Operating Cash

Ongoing EPS

Cas

h fr

om O

pera

tions

(in

$ th

ousa

nds) O

ngoing EPS

MONSANTO’S FINANCIAL INDICATORS: OPERATING CASH AND ONGOING EPS – 2003 TO 2009F

Cash GenerationStrong cash generation allows Monsanto to invest to extend its competitive lead:

Bolster direct returns to shareowners

Support commercial growth through capital spending

Invest in future growth through R&D

Expand core businesses through strategic acquisitions

2009FMonsanto operating cash guidance exceeds $3B, as net income grows with EPS of $4.40-$4.50

2003-2006>$1B in working capital reductions used to fund key acquisitions like Seminis and American Seeds

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17

Over Last Four Years, Use of Cash Focused on Areas That Contribute to Growth and Return Value to Shareowners

USES OF CASHCUMULATIVE: 2005-2008 Fiscal Years

$4,485

$2,078

$307

$1,058$906

ACQUISITIONS 51% OF CASH USED

• American Seeds LLC (2004-2007)

• Seminis (2005)

• Delta & Pine Land (2007)• Agroeste (2007)• De Ruiter (2008) • Cristiani (2008)

CAPITAL SPENDING 24% OF CASH USED

• Spent $918M in 2008, 60% for new or expanding seed facilities

SHARE REPURCHASES 10% OF CASH USED

• Completed 4-year $800M share-repurchase program and began previously announced 3-year $800M authorization in December 2008

$ in thousands

DIVIDENDS 12% OF CASH USED

• From 2002-2008, Monsanto’s Board of Directors raised the dividend seven times for a total increase of 300 percent

TECHNOLOGY SPENDING 4% OF CASH USED

• Over $300M spent to expand technology partnership network

Page 18: monsanto 02_10_09

MONSANTO ANNUAL SHARE REPURCHASE: 2004-2008

Share RepurchasesSTATUS

• Completed 4-year $800M repurchase program ahead of schedule

• Focus areas in 2009:• Began previously announced

3-year, $800M program in December 2008

Earnings Growth Reflected in Dividend Payout, While Newly Authorized Program Extends Share Repurchase Initiative

18

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2004-20053-year $500M repurchase program

– completed early

$ in

mill

ions

1. Amounts for record dates from Jan. 1, 2001 – July 7, 2006 adjusted to allow comparison following Monsanto’s stock split

Per-

Shar

e Am

ount

s 1

DividendsSTATUS• Since becoming an independent company in

August of 2002, Monsanto has increased dividends 8 times – an increase of more than 340 percent

$0.00

$0.05

$0.10

$0.15

$0.20

$0.25

$0.30

Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

2007-2008Two increases in a 12-month period2009Increased quarterly dividend 10% for shareholders of record on April 3rd

MONSANTO QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS: 2001-2009

Page 19: monsanto 02_10_09

FY2009 Guidance Supports 20 Percent Plus EPS Growth Rate

19

2009FEARNINGS

ONGOING EARNINGS PER SHARE$4.40-$4.50

~20-24% GROWTH FROM 2008

Seeds & Genomics Gross Profit $4.5-$4.6BCorn Seed & Traits Gross Profit ~$2.8B

Soybean Seed & Traits Gross Profit ~$700MCotton Seed & Traits Gross Profit ~$300M

Vegetable Seeds Gross Profit ~$500MAll Other Seed & Traits Gross Profit ~$200M

Roundup and All Other Glyphosate-based Herbicides Gross Profit $2.4-2.5B

All Other Ag Productivity Gross Profit ~$400M

CASH MANAGEMENT AND SPENDINGFREE CASH FLOW >$1.8B

Operating Cash >$3BCapital Expenditures ~$1B

SG&A as a Percent of Sales 19% Range

R&D as a Percent of Sales (excluding acquired IPR&D) 9.5%-10% Range

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Page 20: monsanto 02_10_09

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

2007 2008 2009F 2012F

20

$7.3 -$7.5B

GROSS PROFIT COMMITMENT: 2007-2012F

GR

OS

S P

RO

FIT

(in

mill

ions

)

~2.25X2007 BASELINE

$9.5 -$9.75B

$4.40 -$4.50ON-GOING

EPS

$4.2B

SEEDS & GENOMICS GROSS PROFIT

AG PRODUCTIVITY GROSS PROFIT

BASELINE

$6.2B

2012F TARGETS

Total Gross Profit

$9.5 -$9.75B

Roundup and All Other

Glyphosate-Based

Herbicides Gross Profit

$1.9B

All Other Ag Productivity Gross Profit

$300M

Seeds & Traits Gross Profit $7.3 - $7.5B

Yield and Innovation Runway of Growth to 2012 Driven By Seeds and Traits

Page 21: monsanto 02_10_09

Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

Reconciliation of Free Cash Flow

$ MillionsFiscal Year

2009 ForecastFiscal Year

2008Fiscal Year

2007First

Quarter 2009First

Quarter 2008

Net Cash Provided (Required) by Operations $3,000 $2,799 $1,854 $114 $996

Net Cash Provided (Required) by Investing Activities (1,200) (2,027) (1,911) $10 (256)

Free Cash Flow $1,800 $772 $(57) $124 $740

Net Cash Provided (Required) by Financing Activities N/A (102) (583) (258) (47)

Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Cash and Cash Equivalents N/A 77 46 (137) 58

Net Increase (Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents N/A $747 $(594) $(271) $751

$ per shareFiscal Year

2009 ForecastFiscal Year

2008Fiscal Year

2007First

Quarter 2009First

Quarter 2008

Diluted Earnings (Loss) per Share TBD1 $3.62 $1.79 $1.00 $0.46

Solutia Claim Settlement -- ($0.23) -- -- --

Loss (Income) on Discontinued Operations ($0.02) ($0.04) ($0.15) ($0.02) ($0.01)

In-Process R & D Write-Off Related to the De Ruiter Acquisition -- $0.29 -- -- --

In-Process R & D Write-Off Related to the Delta & Pine Land (D&PL) Acquisition -- -- $0.34 -- --

In-Process R & D Write-Off Related to the Aly Participacoes Ltda. Acquisition TBD1 -- -- -- --

Diluted Earnings (Loss) per Share from Ongoing Business $4.40-$4.50 $3.64 $1.98 $0.98 $0.45

Reconciliation of Non-GAAP EPS

211. The company is not able to provide a reconciliation to reported EPS guidance for fiscal year 2009 at this time, as it is still evaluating purchase accounting adjustments related to its recent acquisition of the Brazilian sugar cane business Aly Participacoes Ltda. Such adjustments are dependent upon the completion of valuations of certain intangible assets, including in-process R&D which requires immediate expense recognition and it is expected to be significant.