monsanto 01-18-05
TRANSCRIPT
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ROBERT T. FRALEY, PH.D.Chief Technology Officer and Executive Vice President
MYSTIC RESEARCH FACILITY INVESTOR PRESENTATIONJanuary 2005
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Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements contained in this presentation, such as statements concerning the company's anticipated financial results, current and future product performance, regulatory approvals, currency impact, business and financial plans and other non-historical facts are "forward-looking statements." These statements are based on current expectations and currently available information. However, since these statements are based on factors that involve risks and uncertainties, the company’s actual performance and results may differ materially from those described or implied by such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, among others: the company's exposure to various contingencies, including those related to Solutia Inc., litigation, intellectual property, regulatory compliance (including seed quality), environmental contamination and antitrust; fluctuations in exchange rates and other developments related to foreign currencies and economies; increased generic and branded competition for the company's Roundup herbicide; the accuracy of the company’s estimates and projections, for example, those with respect to product returns and grower use of our products and related distribution inventory levels; the effect of weather conditions and commodity markets on the agriculture business; the success of the company’s research and development activities and the speed with which regulatory authorizations and product launches may be achieved; domestic and foreign social, legal and political developments, especially those relating to agricultural products developed through biotechnology; the company’s ability to successfully market new and existing products in new and existing domestic and international markets; the company’s ability to obtain payment for the products that it sells; the company's ability to achieve and maintain protection for its intellectual property; the effects of the company's accounting policies and changes in generally accepted accounting principles; the company's ability to fund its short-term financing needs; general economic and business conditions; political and economic conditions due to threat of future terrorist activity and related military action; and other risks and factors detailed in the company's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements, which are current only as of the date of this release. The company disclaims any current intention to revise or update any forward-looking statements or any of the factors that may affect actual results, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
The trademarks identified in italics in this presentation are owned by Monsanto Company and its wholly-owned subsidiaries.
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We Track the Next Generation of Products Through the Pipeline
The pipeline product examples in this section are shown in reverse chronological order, beginning with the products that are closest to potential commercial launch and tracking deeper into the research phases.
We sort projects in the pipeline in categories by those that offer benefits to farmers, processors or consumers.
Farmer benefits are those that increase productivity or reduce cost by increasing yield, improving protection from weeds, insects and disease, or increasing tolerance to heat, drought, and other stress.
Processor benefits create better value in food and feed nutrition for food and feed processors.
Consumer benefits are advantages such as increased protein, improved oils, improved fatty-acid balance, or carbohydrate enhancements that help make food healthier for consumers.
The heart of Monsanto’s research and development is our product pipeline. Our pipeline is an engine for discovering and developing the next generation of commercial products. We take our ideas through five phases — from early discovery work through four pre-commercial preparation stages.
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Pipeline Phases
Produce bulk seed for potential sale.
Develop plans for commercialization.
Respond to regulatory processes as appropriate.
PHASE IVPre-Launch
AVERAGE DURATION12 to 36 months
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS90 percent
Demonstrate the performance of the hybrid or variety developed through conventional breeding; or Demonstrate the efficacy of a biotechnology trait in elite germplasm.
Develop and submit regulatory data as appropriate
PHASE IIIAdv. Development
AVERAGE DURATION12 to 24 months
AVERAGE PROBABILITYOF SUCCESS75 percent
For conventional breeding, we conduct field trials of plants bred from parents with the desired traits.
For biotechnology products, we conduct lab and field-testing of genes in plants to select the product candidates that can be commercialized and can meet regulatory requirements.
PHASE IIEarly Development
AVERAGE DURATION12 to 24 months
AVERAGE PROBABILITYOF SUCCESS50 percent
For conventional breeding products, we breed plants from parents with desired traits.
For biotechnology products, we test gene configurations in plants to screen for desired performance.
We determine which leads show the most promise for application to target plants.
PHASE IProof of Concept
AVERAGE DURATION12 to 24 months
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS25 percent
This is where R&D begins. We conduct high-throughput screening of genetic databases to identify valuable plant traits to be used in conventional breeding and valuable genes that can be used to improve plants through biotechnology.
We apply screens to broad categories of interest, identifying multiple leads that are then investigated.
DISCOVERY
AVERAGE DURATION 24 to 48 months
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS5 percent
Time estimates are based on our experience; total development time for any particular product can be shorter or longer than the time estimates here
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GENOMICS
CONVENTIONAL BREEDING
MOLECULAR BREEDING
CROP ANALYTICS
BIOTECHNOLOGY
Monsanto uses its scientific capabilities in a number of arenas to develop new products. These capabilities form a toolkit used throughout our product pipeline, as each tool can be used on its own or in combination to help study, test and refine new traits, germplasm and other characteristics in plants.
Our Technology Platforms
Genomics involves the mapping of the genes of plants to understand their structure and the role they play in how the plant functions.
Conventional breeding is the process of cross-pollinating plants with desirable qualities to develop improved plants in successive generations
Molecular breeding involves the use of DNA markers for genes in combination with physical measurement of traits to manage plant breeding programs. Molecular breeding significantly accelerates the efficiency in bringing new varieties to market.
Crop analytics involves the application of advanced analytical methods and technologies to identify the composition of food and feed traits.
Biotechnology is the application of scientific knowledge to transfer beneficial genetic traits to enhance plants’ growth or to provide nutritional or other benefits to farmers, food and feed processors, or consumers.
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Roundup Ready CornRoundup Ready Corn 2YieldGard Corn Borer Insect-Protected CornYieldGard Rootworm Insect-Protected CornYieldGard PlusYieldGard Plus with Roundup ReadyYieldGard Corn Borer with Roundup ReadyYieldGard Rootworm with Roundup Ready
Roundup Ready Cotton
Bollgard Insect-Protected Cotton
Bollgard II Insect-Protected Cotton
Bollgard and Roundup Ready Cotton
Roundup Ready Canola
Roundup Ready Soybeans
DISCOVERY
PHASE 1
PHASE 2
PHASE 3
PHASE 4
LAUNCHED
GENOMICS CONVENTIONAL BREEDING
MOLECULAR BREEDING
CROP ANALYTICS BIOTECHNOLOGY
Farmer Benefits
Products Launched
1996
1999
1997
1996
2003
1997
1998
1997
2003
2004
2005
1998
2003
CORN
COTTON
CANOLA
SOYBEANS
2001
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Product Pipeline
Grain yieldEnvironmental stress toleranceInsect controlRoundup Ready herbicide toleranceDisease resistance
Drought-tolerant cornDrought-tolerant soybeansDrought-tolerant cottonHigher-yielding cornHigher-yielding soybeans
Second-generation YieldGardCorn Borer
Second-generation Roundup ReadySoybeans
Roundup Ready Flex CottonSecond-generation Roundup Ready/
YieldGard Rootworm CornBreeding: Elite germplasm
DISCOVERY
PHASE 1
PHASE 2
PHASE 3
PHASE 4
LAUNCH
Farmer Benefits
GENOMICS CONVENTIONAL BREEDING
MOLECULAR BREEDING
CROP ANALYTICS BIOTECHNOLOGY
DISCOVERY PLATFORMS
2006Pending Regulatory Approval
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Protein enhancementsLipid enhancements
Feed corn with balanced proteinsFeed corn with increased amino acids
Improved-oil soybeans for processing
Improved-protein soybeans for feed
High-lysine corn
Processor Preferred elite germplasm in key crops, including:
– High-fermentable starch corn for ethanol
– High-extractable starch corn
DISCOVERY
PHASE 1
PHASE 2
PHASE 3
PHASE 4
LAUNCH
Processor Benefits
Product Pipeline
GENOMICS CONVENTIONAL BREEDING
MOLECULAR BREEDING
CROP ANALYTICS BIOTECHNOLOGY
DISCOVERY PLATFORMS
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Improved-protein soybeans for food
Protein enhancementsLipid enhancementsCarbohydrate enhancementsBioactive compounds
Omega-3 soybeans for food usesZero Saturated Fat + Mid-Oleic +
Low-Linolenic soybeans
Mid-Oleic + Low-Linolenic soybeans
Vistive Low-Linolenic Soybeans
DISCOVERY
PHASE 1
PHASE 2
PHASE 3
PHASE 4
LAUNCH
Consumer Benefits
Product Pipeline
GENOMICS CONVENTIONAL BREEDING
MOLECULAR BREEDING
CROP ANALYTICS BIOTECHNOLOGY
DISCOVERY PLATFORMS
2005
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FOCUS: CORN
Corn Presents the Most Attractive Global Opportunity Across Key Agricultural Producers
UNITED STATES
HARVESTED ACRES 71.5M AC
PRODUCTION 11.7B BU
ARGENTINA
HARVESTED ACRES 6M AC
PRODUCTION 660M BU
BRAZIL
HARVESTED ACRES 30M AC
PRODUCTION 1.6B BU
EUROPE
HARVESTED ACRES 15M AC
PRODUCTION 2B BU
ASIA
HARVESTED ACRES 50M AC
PRODUCTION 6B BU
Source: U.S.D.A. Foreign Agricultural Service
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
2003 U.S. CROP VALUE
(IN
BIL
LIO
NS
)
FOCUS: CORN
Corn Continues to be Most Profitable Large-Acre Crop for U.S. Farmers
Source: USDA, NASS, Crop Production, 2003 Summary, Jan 2004; USDA, ERS, Outlook Reports, Jan 2004
CORNSOYBEANS
WHEATOATS
BARLEYSORGHUM
$23.3
$17.5
$7.8
$1.0 $0.8 $0.2
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FOCUS: CORN
Corn Seeds and Traits is Growing Contributor to Monsanto Gross Profit
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
2002 2003 2004
GROSS PROFIT
DO
LLA
RS
(IN
MIL
LIO
NS
)
CORN SEEDS AND TRAITSSOYBEANS SEEDS AND TRAITS
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KEY MARKET ACRES
AVAILABLE MARKET
PERCENT PENETRATED
ASI BRAZIL ARGENTINA
80M 30M 6M
2% 35% 49%
LICENSEDBRANDU.S.
33%14%
FARMER BENEFITS
Industry’s Most Diverse Genetic Pool Creates New Opportunities
CornBreeding
6-to-8 year process undertaken to accelerate breeding:
Late 1990s: Acquired 36 major corn breeding programs (12 countries X average of 3 companies per country)
Early 2000s: Crossed genetic lines across acquired companies
Today: Launching new hybrids from inter-company crosses
DISCOVERY PHASE IProof of Concept
PHASE IIEarly Development
PHASE IIIAdv. Development
PHASE IVPre-Launch
LAUNCH
GENOMICS
MOLECULAR BREEDING
CROP ANALYTICS
BIOTECHNOLOGY
CONVENTIONAL BREEDING
1CONTRIBUTING
PLATFORMS
WHAT IS IT?
THE MOST ADVANCED
GERMPLASM CREATES THE
BEST-YIELDING NEW CORN
HYBRIDS FOR FARMERS
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KEY MARKET ACRES
AVAILABLE MARKET
PERCENT PENETRATED
ASI BRAZIL ARGENTINA
80M 30M 6M
2% 35% 49%
LICENSEDBRANDU.S.
33%14%
FARMER BENEFITS
Industry’s Most Diverse Genetic Pool Created New Opportunities
Field TrialResults
All categories of Monsanto’s elite corn germplasm out-yielded competitors’ germplasm across 2004 field trials
Up Next: Launch 37 new products in our brands
DISCOVERY PHASE IProof of Concept
PHASE IIEarly Development
PHASE IIIAdv. Development
PHASE IVPre-Launch
LAUNCH
2CREATING VALUE
• Value is measured in market share gains; Monsanto’s U.S. branded seed gained 4 points in 3 years
• Elite, high-yielding germplasm refreshes product portfolio at the high end of pricing
• Our highest priced conventional hybrid is about $100/unit or $36/acre
2004 BRANDED CORN GERMPLASM YIELD VS COMPETITORS
RELATIVE MATURITIES (DAYS)
BU
SH
ELS
/AC
RE
MONSANTOCOMPETITORS
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
95 100 105 110 115
15
KEY MARKET ACRES
AVAILABLE MARKET
PERCENT PENETRATED
U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA
4M 1M 4M
0% 0% 0%
High Lysine Corn
Lower cost of animal feed ration – lysine – which cannot be produced by animals, so must be obtained through feed
Improved amino acid balance
Increased total energy
DISCOVERY PHASE IProof of Concept
PHASE IIEarly Development
PHASE IIIAdv. Development
PHASE IVPre-Launch
LAUNCH
1
PROCESSOR BENEFITS
High Lysine Enhances Animal Feed, Shifts Value to Seed
CONTRIBUTING PLATFORMS
GENOMICS
MOLECULAR BREEDING
CROP ANALYTICS
BIOTECHNOLOGY
CONVENTIONAL BREEDING
WHAT IS IT?
CORN WITH ENHANCED LEVELS
OF A LIMITING AMINO ACID FOR
ANIMAL FEED
16
KEY MARKET ACRES
AVAILABLE MARKET
PERCENT PENETRATED
U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA
4M 1M 4M
0% 0% 0%
Field and Feeding Trial Update
U.S. regulatory packages submitted
Field trials conducted in U.S. and Argentina this year; Evaluating over 12 hybrid genotypes in this year’s program
Excellent performance demonstrated in feeding trials to date
Up Next: Regulatory review
DISCOVERY PHASE IProof of Concept
PHASE IIEarly Development
PHASE IIIAdv. Development
PHASE IVPre-Launch
LAUNCH
2CREATING VALUE
• Market value for feed-grade lysine in roughly $1 billion annually*
• Value shared with Cargill through 50/50 Renessen joint venture
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
LYSINE TOTALS IN TESTING
SOUTH AMERICA
FRE
E L
YS
INE
(P
PM
)
U.S.
TARGET
CONTROL WITH GENE
PROCESSOR BENEFITS
High Lysine Enhances Animal Feed, Shifts Value to Seed
* Source: CEH Market Research
17
KEY MARKET ACRES
AVAILABLE MARKET
PERCENT PENETRATED
U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA
TBD TBD TBD
0% 0% 0%
Feed Corn with Improved Amino Acids
Increased levels of lysine over first-generation High-Lysine Corn could displace more supplements used in animal feed
Second generation improves the overall amino acid balance in corn, creating more available “energy” in feed
DISCOVERY PHASE IProof of Concept
PHASE IIEarly Development
PHASE IIIAdv. Development
PHASE IVPre-Launch
LAUNCH
1
PROCESSOR BENEFITS
Second-Generation High-Lysine Corn Could Further Replace Feed Supplements
CONTRIBUTING PLATFORMS
GENOMICS
MOLECULAR BREEDING
CROP ANALYTICS
BIOTECHNOLOGY
CONVENTIONAL BREEDING
WHAT IS IT?
SECOND-GENERATION CORN
WITH ENHANCED LEVELS OF LYSINE FOR ANIMAL FEED
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
KEY MARKET ACRES
AVAILABLE MARKET
PERCENT PENETRATED
U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA
TBD TBD TBD
0% 0% 0%
Field and Feeding Trial Update
Early field trials conducted in 2004; Lead event candidates identified
Up Next: Test lead events in commercially relevant germplasm
DISCOVERY PHASE IProof of Concept
PHASE IIEarly Development
PHASE IIIAdv. Development
PHASE IVPre-Launch
LAUNCH
2CREATING VALUE
• Market value for feed-grade lysine in roughly $1 billion annually*
• Value shared with Cargill through 50/50 Renessen joint venture
LYSINE TOTALS IN TESTING
EVENT 1
FRE
E L
YS
INE
(P
PM
)
EVENT 2
TARGET
* Source: CEH Market Research
PROCESSOR BENEFITS
Second-Generation High-Lysine Corn Could Further Replace Feed Supplements
19
KEY MARKET ACRES
AVAILABLE MARKET
PERCENT PENETRATED
U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA
30-40M 15M 4M
0% 0% 0%
DISCOVERY PHASE IProof of Concept
PHASE IIEarly Development
PHASE IIIAdv. Development
PHASE IVPre-Launch
LAUNCH
Second-Generation YieldGard Corn Borer
Broad control solution for fall armyworm and corn earworm for global expansion
Durability solution for insect resistance management
1
FARMER BENEFITS
Second-Generation YieldGard Corn Borer Controls More Insects
CONTRIBUTING PLATFORMS
GENOMICS
MOLECULAR BREEDING
BIOTECHNOLOGY
CONVENTIONAL BREEDING
WHAT IS IT?
SECOND-GENERATION CORN
BORER CONTROL, WITH EXPANDED
INSECT AND ENHANCED IRM
DURABILITY
CROP ANALYTICS
2ND-GEN YIELDGARD CORN BORERCONTROLCONTROL 2ND-GEN YIELDGARD
CORN BORER
FALL ARMY WORM CONTROL
CORN EARWORM CONTROL
20
KEY MARKET ACRES
AVAILABLE MARKET
PERCENT PENETRATED
U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA
30-40M 15M 4M
0% 0% 0%CREATING VALUE 2
Field Trial Update
2004 field trials conducted in Puerto Rico, Argentina and U.S.
Excellent control in high infestations levels
Up Next: Tests in 2006 field season to validate performance in multiple inbred backgrounds
DISCOVERY PHASE IProof of Concept
PHASE IIEarly Development
PHASE IIIAdv. Development
PHASE IVPre-Launch
LAUNCH
• Value reflects enhanced insect control and insect resistance management. Lifts the value of the YieldGard Corn Borer trait.
FARMER BENEFITS
Second-Generation YieldGard Corn Borer Controls More Insects
CORN EARWORM FEEDING DAMAGE IN TRIALS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
EA
R D
AM
AG
E (
CM
)
2ND-GENERATION YIELDGARD CORN BORER EVENTS
YIELDGARD CORN BORER COMPETING
PRODUCT
CONTROL
21
KEY MARKET ACRES
AVAILABLE MARKET
PERCENT PENETRATED
U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA
TBD TBD TBD
0% 0% 0%
FARMER BENEFITS
Drought Stress Tolerance Will Be a Family of Traits in Pipeline
Drought-TolerantCorn
Yield protection on all acres to protect against water deficits
Yield enhancement on all acres through improved water use
Cost savings on irrigated acres
GENOMICS
MOLECULAR BREEDING
CROP ANALYTICS
BIOTECHNOLOGY
CONVENTIONAL BREEDING
1CONTRIBUTING
PLATFORMS
DISCOVERY PHASE IProof of Concept
PHASE IIEarly Development
PHASE IIIAdv. Development
PHASE IVPre-Launch
LAUNCH
WHAT IS IT?
HYBRIDS PROTECTED FROM ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS CREATED
FROM WATER SHORTAGE
22
KEY MARKET ACRES
AVAILABLE MARKET
PERCENT PENETRATED
U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA
TBD TBD TBD
0% 0% 0%
Field TrialUpdate
Two gene leads obtained positive results with more than one transformed event
Up Next: Test stacking; continue with lead events
DISCOVERY PHASE IProof of Concept
PHASE IIEarly Development
PHASE IIIAdv. Development
PHASE IVPre-Launch
LAUNCH
CREATING VALUE
• Pricing depends on choice of market
• Stacking with weed and insect control enhances the margin opportunity
• Irrigation currently costs $50 to $100 per acre
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
YIE
LD I
NC
RE
AS
E (
BU
/AC
)
EVENT 1 EVENT 2 EVENT 30
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
EVENT 1 EVENT 2 EVENT 3
YIELD INCREASE IN TWO GENE TRIALS
3 EVENTS: GENE 1 3 EVENTS: GENE 2
GERMPLASM 1 GERMPLASM 2
FARMER BENEFITS
Drought Stress Tolerance Will Be a Family of Traits in Pipeline
23
KEY MARKET ACRES
AVAILABLE MARKET
PERCENT PENETRATED
U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA
TBD TBD TBD
0% 0% 0%
FARMER BENEFITS
Improving Nitrogen Use Can Boost Yields
Higher-Yielding Corn
Increased yield achieved through enhanced nitrogen uptake and utilization
Potential to reduce fertilizer inputs
GENOMICS
MOLECULAR BREEDING
CROP ANALYTICS
BIOTECHNOLOGY
CONVENTIONAL BREEDING
1CONTRIBUTING
PLATFORMS
DISCOVERY PHASE IProof of Concept
PHASE IIEarly Development
PHASE IIIAdv. Development
PHASE IVPre-Launch
LAUNCH
WHAT IS IT?
HYBRIDS THAT CAN BETTER USE
AVAILABLE NITROGEN IN THE
SOIL
ROOT TOLERANCE TO LOW NITROGEN
WITH GENECONTROL
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FOCUS: CORN
Value Shift Continues…
Source: U.S. 1996-2003 Doane Agrotrak & Seed Studies; 2008 Monsanto Estimate
CROP CHEMICALS GERMPLASM BIOTECH TRAITS
1996 $7.5 BILLION
2003$8.4 BILLION
2008F $9.2 BILLION
$3.0
$0.1
$4.5$3.5
$1.3
$3.6
$3.8
$2.7
$2.6
INDUSTRY VALUE SHIFT FROM CROP CHEMICALS TO SEEDS AND TRAITS IS WELL UNDER WAY
25
FOCUS: CORN
… To Food, Feed and Yield
CROP CHEMICALS
YIELDGARD CORN BORERROUNDUP READY CORNYIELDGARD ROOTWORM
VALUE SHIFT
HIGH-LYSINE CORNFEED CORN WITH INCREASED AMINO ACIDS
VALUE SHIFT
ANIMAL NUTRITION
1996 VALUE SHIFT TO SEED
OMEGA-3 CORN FOR FEED
VALUE SHIFT
HUMAN HEALTH
DROUGHT-TOLERANT CORN
HIGHER-YIELDING CORN
VALUE SHIFT
WATER & SOIL
NUTRIENTS