monsanto 12-04-07
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TRANSCRIPT
1
BRETT BEGEMANNEXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, GLOBAL COMMERCIAL
CITI
2007 BASIC MATERIALS SYMPOSIUM
DECEMBER 4, 2007
2
Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements contained in this presentation are "forward-looking statements," such as statements concerning the company's anticipated financial results, current and future product performance, regulatory approvals, business and financial plans and other non-historical facts. These statements are based on current expectations and currently available information. However, since these statements are based on factors that involve risks and uncertainties, the company's actual performance and results may differ materially from those described or implied by such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, among others: continued competition in seeds, traits and agricultural chemicals; the company's exposure to various contingencies, including those related to intellectual property protection, regulatory compliance and the speed with which approvals are received, and public acceptance of biotechnology products; the success of the company's research and development activities; the outcomes of major lawsuits, including proceedings related to Solutia Inc.; developments related to foreign currencies and economies; successful completion and operation of recent acquisitions; fluctuations in commodity prices; compliance with regulations affecting our manufacturing; the accuracy of the company's estimates related to distribution inventory levels; the company's ability to fund its short-term financing needs and to obtain payment for the products that it sells; the effect of weather conditions, natural disasters and accidents on the agriculture business or the company's facilities; and other risks and factors detailed in the company's most recent periodic report to the SEC. Undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements, which are current only as of the date of this presentation. The company disclaims any current intention or obligation to update any forward-looking statements or any of the factors that may affect actual results.
TrademarksTrademarks owned by Monsanto Company and its wholly-owned subsidiaries are italicized in this presentation. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
© 2007 Monsanto Company
3
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
2004 2007 2012
Given Growth Opportunities, Monsanto Has Potential to More Than Double Gross Profit Over the Next Five Years
OVERVIEW
2012 GROWTH RANGE
Gross profit targeted to double from 2007 through 2012
STRATEGIC PLAYBOOK
All growth is organic, from base business and pipeline
U.S. CornInternational CornSoybeansCottonSeminisR&D Pipeline
TRAIT PLATFORMS
CORN: SmartStaxSOYBEANS: Roundup
RReady2YieldCOTTON: Bollgard II/
Roundup Ready Flex
MONSANTO GROSS PROFITGROWTH TARGET
GR
OS
S P
RO
FIT
(IN
MIL
LIO
NS
)
MIL
ES
TO
NE
S
2007Base Gross Profit:
$4,286M
2010Gross margin target: 52-54%
ONGOING EPS GROWTH: MID-TO-HIGH TEENS
4
International Market Share Gains Create Footprint for Expansion
GEOGRAPHY: InternationalOBJECTIVE: Grow footprint2008 STATUS
• Target of 1 to 2 share point gains in all regions except Brazil, where plan is to stabilize share
2012 OUTLOOK
• Outside the U.S., 70M acres of hybrids in higher-value markets
• Targeted 1-2 share point gains annually in all key countries through 2012
• Brazil targeted to grow after share trait stabilizes in 2008
GENETIC FOOTPRINT: GLOBAL CORN PRODUCTION
157MTOTAL
439%$0.1B$2029bu/ac
7MIndia
540%$0.2B$28120bu/ac
8MArgentina
430%$0.7B$2957bu/ac
23MBrazil
113%$1.9B$6599bu/ac3
27MEU27
423%$3.2B$44153bu/ac
92MU.S.
2007Share Point
Change
DEKALBBrand Share2
Value Of Corn Seed
Market (U.S. $B)
Average DEKALB
Retail Value
Per Acre(U.S. $)
Average Yield Per
Acre1
2007 Hybrid Market Size1
(Acres)
1. Corn acreage and production; USDA FAS 2007/08 projections report and internal estimates2. Reflects share performance for 2007 planting season; for Brazil and Argentina, reflects 2006-2007 planting season3. Average yield; from 55 bu/acre in Romania to 150 bu/acre in France, Italy
U.S. AND INTERNATIONAL CORN
5
DEKALB’s Performance Accelerated Share Gains Ahead of Schedule; Fundamentals Remain Viable Through 2012
U.S. CORN
2005Monsanto projects 1-2 point
share gains for DEKALB from 2005 through 2010
ORIGINAL 2010 TARGET RANGE
2007DEKALB ends 2007 with 23% share, achieving 2010 target 3 years early
2012 TARGET RANGE
DEKALB U.S. CORN SHARE EVOLUTION: 2001-2012F
DEKALB expected to continue share gains, with cumulative target of as much as 10 points in 5 years
GEOGRAPHY: U.S.OBJECTIVE: Grow footprint2008 STATUS
• DEKALB earned 4 points in 2007 for total share of 23%, doubling its share in 5 years
2012 OUTLOOK
• Grow share through 2012 by up to 10 points cumulatively
10% 12%13%
14%
16%
19%
23%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
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Final Yield Trial Results Reinforce Yield Advantage of DEKALB Seed in U.S.
GEOGRAPHY: U.S.OBJECTIVE: Grow footprint2007 PERFORMANCE UPDATE
• In > 14,000 comparisons, Monsanto out-yields competitive best by 8.4 bu/ac
• In 110-day RM, Monsanto’s lead remains a strong 12 bu/ac advantage
2007 FINAL U.S. COMPETITIVE CORN YIELD COMPARISON: DEKALB
FINAL:
190
205
195 197
179
186
193189 188
163
191
155150
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
210
COMPETITORS
DEKALB
BU
SH
ELS
/AC
RE
(AP
PR
OX
IMA
TE
DIF
FER
EN
CE
S)
7.8
>480
95 RM
8.4
>14,000
Overall
5.512.05.110.4APPROXIMATE BU/AC
>5,270>5,220>1,820>1,220COMPARISONS:
115 RM110 RM105 RM100 RMRELATIVE MATURITIES (DAYS)►
ADVANTAGE:
Source: 2007 Monsanto and third party trials through November 15, 2007. Weighted average, calculated to 15% moisture. DEKALBproducts are compared with national competitive products that contain similar crop protection traits.
U.S. CORN
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Like National Brands, New ASI Hybrids Have Substantial Yield Advantage Over Competitive Offerings
2007 PRELIMINARY U.S. COMPETITIVE CORN YIELD COMPARISON: ASI
GEOGRAPHY: U.S.OBJECTIVE: Grow footprint2007 PERFORMANCE UPDATE
• Overall, 2007 yield comparisons showing 7.5 bu/ac advantage for ASI over competitive best
197
203 203
183
190 192 193
184
166 163160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
210
10.5
158
115 RM
11.56.513.5APPROXIMATE BU/AC ADVANTAGE:
1478712854LOCATIONS:
110 RM105 RM100 RM95RMRELATIVE MATURITIES (DAYS)►
Source: 2007 Monsanto trials through October 24, 2007.
BU
SH
ELS
/AC
RE
(AP
PR
OX
IMA
TE
DIF
FER
EN
CE
S)
COMPETITORS
ASI
U.S. CORN
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Opportunity Exists to Nearly Triple Penetration of Triple-Stack Traits in U.S. By End of Decade
U.S. CORN
U.S
. TR
AIT
AC
RE
S(I
N M
ILLI
ON
S)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2005 2006 2007 2010F
0
10
20
30
40
50
60 U.S
. TR
IPLE
-ST
AC
K A
CR
ES
(IN M
ILLION
S)
U.S. CORN TRAIT OPPORTUNITY: 2007-2010F
Trait acres reflect the total acres planted with each individual trait. In the case of stacked traits, each absolute acre will be reflected by two or more trait acres.Source: “Monsanto Biotechnology Trait Acreage” available through: monsanto.com/investors/
2007 2010 Opportunity
45-55M
60-70M
80M
45-55MTriple Stack 17.7M
Rootworm Control 20.8MCorn Borer Control 42.4M
57.9MGlyphosate Tolerance
CATALYSTS OF TRIPLE STACK
GROWTHChannel Triple PenetrationDEKALB Supply GuaranteeYield Insurance Program
9
SmartStax Becomes Corn Platform of Choice After 2010, Boosting Performance, Creating New Value for Farmers
SmartStaxAnatomy of first-ever eight-way gene platform
TRAIT STATUS
YieldGard VT Triple PRO Pending Regulatory Review
COMPONENTS
COMPONENTS
YieldGard VT Rootworm/RR22ND-GENERATION ROOTWORM
CONTROL1
Below-Ground Insect Control
PRIMARY: ROOTWORMCommercial
Roundup Ready 2 TechnologyVIA YIELDGARD VT ROOTWORM/RR2 1 Weed Control
MODE: GLYPHOSATE Commercial
Herculex® XTRA
YieldGard VT PRO2ND-GENERATION YIELDGARD CORN
BORER 2Above-Ground Insect
ControlPRIMARY: CORN BORER
PHASE IVPending Regulatory Review
Commercial
Commercial
Commercial
• Application for EPA registration to be submitted
• On track for end-of-decade commercialization in U.S., with global roll-out following
Herculex® I
Herculex® RW
Liberty Link® 1 Weed ControlMODE: GLUFOSINATE
SmartStaxIndustry-Standard Trait
Platform1
Multiple modes of action for above- and below-ground insect
and weed control
GENES FUNCTION
1Above-Ground Insect
ControlPRIMARY: CORN BORER
2Below-Ground Insect
ControlPRIMARY: ROOTWORM
SmartStax is in proof-of-concept testing, establishing:
Feasibility of full trait integrationViability of enhanced performance for insect and weed control
1. This product has not been registered by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. It is a violation of federal law to promote or sell an unregistered pesticide.
SMARTSTAX CORN PLANTED IN WESTERN IOWA, SHOWING FULL, HEALTHY EARS AND STRONG, HEALTHY ROOTS
U.S. CORN
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COMMERCIAL PLATFORM: 2007-20101 TRAIT PLATFORM: 2010+
• SmartStax resets trait opportunities
• Competition, penetration and technology fit being evaluated further for each geography
SmartStax
60-65M15-20M15-20M5-7M5-6M
100-118M
• Reflects technology fit; actual penetration determined by regulatory approvals and competitive share
• Competitors continue to license Monsanto traits in key markets
U.S. 92M 80M 60-70M 45-55MEurope (EU27) 27M 24M 8M 5M
Total Markets 157M 134-139M 96-111M 60-70M
2007 Penetration 43-45% 46-53% 30-35%
2007 HYBRID MARKET
SIZE2
(ACRES)
Brazil 23M 15-20M 15-20M 5MArgentina 8M 9M 7M 5M
India 7M 6M 6M --
Trait Expansion Opportunity Still Early Globally; SmartStaxResets the Deck in 2010 and Beyond
U.S. AND INTERNATIONAL CORN
80M Targets marked in green representing countries currently planting or with primary regulatory approval secured for respective trait
1. Market Opportunity reflects total acres where technology is applicable, not necessarily acres projected for penetration by 2010.
2. Corn acreage and production; USDA FAS 2007/08 projections report and internal estimates
GLOBAL MARKET OPPORTUNITY:
CORN TRAITS 2010 VS 2012
11
By 2012, Sustained Momentum in U.S. Corn Combined With International Growth Expands Corn Gross Profit Contribution
GLOBAL CORN SEED AND TRAITS GROSS PROFIT INDEX=2004
2004 2012F
U.S. Corn Seeds & Traits Gross Profit
International Corn Seeds & Traits Gross Profit
• In 2007, international markets generated more than 25% of gross profit
• By 2012, total gross profit expected to expand significantly with continued penetration of traits globally, conversion to SmartStax and greater seed brand share worldwide
2007
>6XOVER 2004 INDEX
U.S. AND INTERNATIONAL CORN
12
U.S. Soybean Seed Share to Continue to Grow OrganicallySOYBEANS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2012
U.S. SOYBEAN BRANDED AND LICENSED SEED SHARE
U.S
. SO
YB
EA
N S
EE
D M
AR
KE
T S
HA
RE
(P
ER
CE
NT
AG
E)
ASGROW ASI CORN STATES LICENSEES
TARGET
13
SOYBEANS
Coming Off 2007 Share Gain, Initial Soybean Yield Performance Continues to Reinforce Breeding Leadership
2007 PRELIMINARY U.S. COMPETITIVE SOYBEAN YIELD COMPARISON: ASGROW
GEOGRAPHY: U.S.OBJECTIVE: Grow footprint2007 PERFORMANCE UPDATE
• Yield data from 2007 indicates continued yield advantage for national brands versus best-in-class competitors
44
51
58
49
43
49
57
55
47
52
56
51
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
COMPETITORS
ASGROW
Source: 2007 Monsanto and third party trials through October 30, 2007. Asgrowproducts are compared to competitive products. (1)
>30
5
21.511.51APPROXIMATE BU/AC ADVANTAGE:
>1,000>3,400>3,500>400>300COMPARISONS:
4321ORELATIVE MATURITIES►
BU
SH
ELS
/AC
RE
(AP
PR
OX
IMA
TE
DIF
FER
EN
CE
S)
14
Preparations Under Way for Large Scale U.S. Launch of Roundup RReady2Yield
SOYBEANS
ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD SOYBEANS: LAUNCH PLANSCROP: Soybeans
OBJECTIVE:Launch Roundup RReady2Yield
2008 STATUS
• Consistent 7-11% yield advantage with Roundup RReady2Yield
• USDA, EPA and FDA approvals received; awaiting key export approvals
• Pre-launch activities under way
PRICING
• Yield improvement shared with grower; average 5-year soybean commodity price approximately $6.40 per bushel1
Branded and licensed seed production
U.S. Full-Scale Launch Target:
5- 6M Acres
Grower level marketing, awareness and trial
Licensee breeding
U.S. Controlled Commercial
Release Target: 1- 2M Acres
2010200920082007
Pursuit of export approvals in Japan, China, Europe and Mexico
Industry coordination and communications • American Soybean Association and key agri-food
stakeholders
P R O J E C T
1. Source: NASS, USDA data 2003 to August 2007
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SOYBEANS
Soybean Value Upgraded with Roundup RReady2Yield, Modified Oil Traits and Insect Protection
SOYBEAN UPGRADE UNDER WAY; MARKET SEGMENTATION BY MID NEXT DECADE
BRAZIL SOYBEAN MARKET
VALUE
• Insect-protected Roundup RReady2Yieldbeing launched
•$2.50-$3.00+ per acre for Roundup tolerance plus 7-11% yield
•Insecticide replacement
CROP: Soybeans
OBJECTIVE: Growth via new traits
2008 STATUS
• Roundup Readysoybeans at 95% penetration in U.S., 50% in Brazil
• Roundup RReady2Yieldapproved by USDA, EPA and FDA; key export approvals pending
2012 OUTLOOK
• Five trait stacks in soybeans feasible, with Roundup RReady2Yield as base trait for all
MODIFIED OIL TRAITS
U.S. SOYBEANS: 60-70M ACRE MARKET
BRAZIL SOYBEANS: 50-60M ACRE MARKET
ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD AND INSECT PROTECTED
ROUNDUP READY
ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD
COMPETITIVE PLATFORM
• Roundup RReady2Yieldin market for 2+ years
• Vistive III and other modified oil traits being launched
U.S. SOYBEAN MARKET
• $13+/acre for Roundup tolerance plus 7-11% yield
• Oil premium
VALUE
16
Relative Contribution of U.S. and Ex-U.S. Should Be Consistent in Growing Soybean Seed and Trait Business
SOYBEANS
GLOBAL SOYBEAN SEED AND TRAITS GROSS PROFIT BY GEOGRAPHYINDEX=2004
2004 2007 2012F
U.S.
BRAZIL ROUNDUP READY SOYBEAN
LAUNCHED IN 2004
BRAZIL ROUNDUP READYSOYBEAN AT 50% PENETRATION IN
2007
ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD
PLANTED 2009/2010 IN U.S.; BRAZIL
ROUNDUP READYSOYBEAN FULLY
PENETRATEDINTERNATIONAL
>2XOVER 2004 INDEX
17
Delta and Pine Land’s Global Breeding Strategy Focused on Yield and Fiber Improvement
COTTON
U.S. (9)Testing Programs
Breeding Programs
Winter Nurseries
Costa Rica
Brazil
South Africa
India (3)
Greece
Australia
GLOBAL COTTON BREEDING STRATEGYRESOURCES CAPABILITIES OUTLOOK• World’s largest private cotton
breeding program• Strategically located in
pivotal cotton areas• All lines feed into global
testing and introgression program
• ‘Jumpstart’ of up to 3 years over corn in 1990s with established infrastructure
• Labs, IT and markers are ready to go; “plug-and-play” opportunity
• Largest marker collection in the world
• Focus on drought, fiber quality, lint yield and disease resistance
• Novel targets: Diverse germplasm base can lead to new genetic pairings that greatly benefit farmers
18
Planned Upgrade to Second-Generation Cotton Technology in U.S. Focused on Southern Markets
COTTON
CROP: Cotton
OBJECTIVE:Second-generation technology
2008 STATUS
• Southern Delta region lags at 15% average penetration for second-generation traits
2012 OUTLOOK
• Aggressive breeding strategy to fully convert to Bollgard II by start of 2010 growing season; fully converted to Roundup Ready Flex by 2012
U.S. COTTON SEED BRAND SHARE - 20071
17% 45%46%TOTAL
DELTA AND PINE LAND
86%
1. Source: dmrkynetec – cotton seed study – planted acre basis for new certified seed
46% ROUNDUP READY FLEX15% BOLLGARD II / ROUNDUP READY FLEX
48% BOLLGARD II / ROUNDUP READY FLEX
FOCUS ON SHIFTING SOUTHERN DELTA TRAITED ACRES FROM 15% SECOND-GENERATION TO 100% BY 2012
19
U.S. Cotton Trait Acres Shift with Total Planted Cotton Acres; Opportunity to Upgrade to Second-Generation
COTTON
M A
CR
ES
U.S. COTTON TRAIT ACRES
0
5
10
15
20
25
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2. Absolute trait acres represents the total number of acres with at least one trait; two traits on one acre one absolute acre
1. Second-generation trait penetration reflects percent of commercial portfolio containing either RoundupReady Flex, Bollgard II or both traits.
CROP: Cotton
OBJECTIVE:Second-generation technology
2008 STATUS
• Nearly 80% of the U.S. planted cotton acres contained at least one Monsanto trait in 2007
• Delta and Pine Land’s portfolio was only 17% second-generation1 traits compared with industry average of 41%
2012 OUTLOOK
• Delta and Pine Land’s portfolio fully converted to second-generation traits in all U.S. segments
AB
SO
LUT
E2
TR
AIT
AC
RE
S
(PE
RC
EN
T O
F TO
TA
L PLA
NT
ED
AC
RE
S)
ROUNDUP READY
ROUNDUP READY FLEX
BOLLGARD
BOLLGARD II
20
Bollgard Cotton Penetration in India Nearly Doubles in 2007; Creates Platform for Second-Generation Traits
COTTON
BOLLGARD & BOLLGARD II COTTON IN INDIA
ROUNDUP READY FLEX OPPORTUNITY
M ACRES
2004 2005 2006 2007 2012OPPORTUNITY
M A
CR
ES
2007 RETAIL PRICE/ACRE SEED & TRAIT
BOLLGARD BOLLGARD II
$ 18 $22
15-20M
CROP: Cotton
OBJECTIVE:Second-generation technology
2008 STATUS
• Hybrid market now estimated to be 15-20 million acres in India
2012 OUTLOOK
• Expect market in India to be fully converted to Bollgard II by 2012
• Potential to launch Bollgard II stacked with Roundup Ready Flex prior to 2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
BOLLGARD II BOLLGARD
BOLLGARD II WITH ROUNDUP READY FLEX
21
COTTON
Second-Generation Trait Conversion Accelerates Globally to Expand Gross Profit Contribution of Cotton
GLOBAL COTTON SEED AND TRAITS GROSS PROFITINDEX=2007
2007 2012F
U.S.
INTERNATIONAL
• In five years, Delta and Pine Land fully contributing with market share and second-generation trait growth
• India becomes a larger player with conversion to second generation traits
• Australia and Brazil are small acre, but important markets
1.8XOVER 2007 INDEX
22
Strong Pipeline Value Reflects Commercial Opportunity in Latter-Stage Projects and Emerging Value in Yield and Stress
R&D PIPELINE
DISCOVERY PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 3 PHASE 4
FAMILY TRAITS►Broad-Acre, Higher-Yielding Family
HIGHSOYBEANS:BROAD-ACRE YIELD
Broad-Acre, Higher-Yielding Family
Nitrogen-Utilization Family
FAMILY TRAITS►
FAMILY TRAITS► MEGA
HIGH
Drought-Tolerant Family
FAMILY TRAITS► HIGHCORN:BROAD-ACRE YIELD
YIE
LD &
ST
RE
SS
C
OLL
AB
OR
AT
ION
High-oil soybeans
Dicamba-tolerant soybeansVistive III
Improved-protein soybeans
Roundup RReady2Yield canola
Bollgard III
Insect-protected Roundup RReady2Yieldsoybeans
Omega-3 soybeans
YieldGard VT PROcorn
Roundup RReady2Yieldsoybeans
MEGA>$1BM
HIGH$300M-$500M
MID$150M-$300M
Corn Soybeans Cotton Canola
2020 VALUE RANGES:
LOW<$150M
23
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
2004 2007 2012
Given Growth Opportunities, Monsanto Has Potential to More Than Double Gross Profit Over the Next Five Years
SUMMARY
MONSANTO GROSS PROFITGROWTH TARGET
GR
OS
S P
RO
FIT
(IN
MIL
LIO
NS
)
MIL
ES
TO
NE
S
2007Base Gross Profit:
$4,286M
2010Gross margin target: 52-54%
ONGOING EPS GROWTH: MID-TO-HIGH TEENS
2012 GROWTH RANGE
Gross profit targeted to double from 2007 through 2012
STRATEGIC PLAYBOOK
All growth is organic, from base business and pipeline
U.S. CornInternational CornSoybeansCottonSeminisR&D Pipeline
TRAIT PLATFORMS
CORN: SmartStaxSOYBEANS: Roundup
RReady2YieldCOTTON: Bollgard II/
Roundup Ready Flex