monsanto 12-04-06
TRANSCRIPT
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TED CROSBIEBREEDING LEAD
CITIGROUP PRE-CONFERENCE TEACH-IN
December 4, 2006
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Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements contained in this presentation are "forward-looking statements," such as statements concerning the company's anticipated financial results, current and future product performance, regulatory approvals, business and financial plans and other non-historical facts. These statements are based on current expectations and currently available information. However, since these statements are based on factors that involve risks and uncertainties, the company's actual performance and results may differ materially from those described or implied by such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, among others: continued competition in seeds, traits and agricultural chemicals; the company's exposure to various contingencies, including those related to intellectual property protection, regulatory compliance and the speed with which approvals are received, and public acceptance of biotechnology products; the success of the company's research and development activities; the outcomes of major lawsuits, including proceedings related to Solutia Inc.; developments related to foreign currencies and economies; successful completion and operation of recent and proposed acquisitions, including Delta and Pine Land Company; fluctuations in commodity prices; compliance with regulations affecting our manufacturing; the accuracy of the company's estimates related to distribution inventory levels; the company's ability to fund its short-term financing needs and to obtain payment for the products that it sells; the effect of weather conditions, natural disasters and accidents on the agriculture business or the company's facilities; and other risks and factors detailed in the company's filings with the SEC. Undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements, which are current only as of the date of this presentation. The company disclaims any current intention or obligation to update any forward-looking statements or any of the factors that may affect actual results.
Trademarks
Trademarks owned by Monsanto Company and its wholly-owned subsidiaries are italicized in this presentation.
Mavera is a trademark of Renessen, LLC.
© 2006 Monsanto Company
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OVERVIEW
Breeding and Biotech Provide Parallel R&D Paths to Commercial Products
PHASE II PHASE III PHASE IVPHASE IDISCOVERY LAUNCH
BREEDING and BIOTECHNOLOGY form two R&D pathways
Separate, but parallel, the BREEDING and BIOTECHNOLOGY pathways are linked by shared tools.
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BREEDING
BIOTECHNOLOGY
GGermplasm
RSEED SOLD TO FARMERS
R&D PHASE:
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Germplasm Is Building Block for Better Seed; Germplasm Library Is Building Block for Better Breeding
BREEDING
TEMPERATESUB-TROPICAL
TROPICAL
SUB-TROPICAL
TEMPERATE
CORN SEED GERMPLASM LIBRARYASSEMBLED GEOGRAPHIC POOLS
GERMPLASM
OVERVIEW:Germplasm is like breeding in thoroughbred race horses –just as breeders select for the fastest race horses, seed breeders look to pair the best pool of genes for the strongest yielding seed
APPLICATION: Germplasm pools allow breeders to target key physiological traits:
Monsanto’s corn germplasm library is assembled from 36 breeding programs in 12 different countriesAnnually, breeders exchange more than a million different “packages” of germplasm material>50% of Monsanto’s corn hybrids result from intra-company crosses
• Increased Yield• Disease Resistance• Stress Tolerance• Grain Quality / Added Value
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Markers Allow Breeders to Get Best Combinations of Germplasm Faster With Greater Predictability
BREEDING
Regions associated with yield coming from Parent 1
1 2 5 6 7 8 9 103 4
Regions associated with yield coming from Parent 2
MARKERS
OVERVIEW:A corn plant has 40,000 genes spanning 10 chromosomes. Characteristics – or traits – are built from different pieces on different chromosomes. Markers are DNA ‘flags’ that indicate where particular genes are located
APPLICATION: Using markers to make better selections, breeders can improve the probability of success:
TRACKING CHARACTERISTICS FOR YIELDYIELD-RELATED AREAS ON CORN CHROMOSOMES
Probability of finding 1 trait that is controlled by 20 genes“Random” crosses: 1 per trillion
1 in 5
After application of markers and
breeding technology
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Products of Molecular Breeding Only Beginning to Enter the Commercial Portfolio
BREEDING
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
U.S
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2006 BRANDED U.S. MARKET SHARE: 19%
DEKALB AND ASGROW U.S. BRAND MARKET SHARE
PROGRESSION OF BREEDING TECHNOLOGY
IN THE COMMERCIAL
PORTFOLIO
CYCLE 1: INTEGRATION OF GLOBAL GERMPLASM
• ASSEMBLED 36 MAJOR CORN BREEDING PROGRAMS IN 12 COUNTRIES
• FIRST INTRA-COMPANY CROSSES; BY CYCLE 3, >50% OF HYBRIDS IN THE U.S. PORTFOLIO MADE THROUGH INTRA-COMPANY CROSSES
CYCLE 2:APPLICATION OF MOLECULAR BREEDING TO SELECTION
CYCLE 3: SELECTION POWER OF MOLECULAR BREEDING
• MOLECULAR BREEDING IMPROVES GENETIC POTENTIAL BY 2X VERSUS CONVENTIONAL BREEDING
• IN 2006, FIRST MOLECULAR BREEDING HYBRIDS ENTERED COMMERCIAL PORTFOLIO
• PREDICTIVE COMBINATIONS ALLOW MORE EFFICIENT BREEDING
• MOLECULAR BREEDING ACCELERATES TRAIT INTEGRATION BY SHORTENING ‘BACKCROSSING’ CYCLES
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Core Research Methods Have Applicability Across Crop Platforms, Magnifying Investment and Productivity
BREEDING
CROP PLATRFORMS
CORN
SOYBEANS
COTTON
VEGETABLES
MARKER DISCOVERY
MARKER DETECTION
IT SYSTEMS
SHARED TECHNOLOGY AND METHODS
Focused on methods for discovering new
markers, moving to a “SNP” (single
nucleotide polymorphism)
platform for all crops
APPLICATION TODAY:Thousands of SNP markers already identified and in use for cornand soybeans
OPPORTUNITY: Development of SNP markers for 9 different row crop and vegetable species
MARKER-TRAIT ASSOCIATIONS
Focused on state-of-the-art platforms to detect markers that maximize efficiency and minimize cost
APPLICATION TODAY:Proprietary automated systems in place for corn, soybeans and cotton
OPPORTUNITY: Leverage existing platforms for additional species and upgrading systems for all crops
Focused on creating unified decision-
making systems to better enable
breeding efficiency
APPLICATION TODAY:Proprietary interconnected IT systems in place for corn, soybeans and cotton
OPPORTUNITY: Utilize existing systems to provide comparable capabilities for vegetables
Focused on the best application of marker-trait
associations to select for most commercially-relevant traits
APPLICATION TODAY:Associations used for complex traits –like yield – in corn and soybeans, and simpler traits in vegetables
OPPORTUNITY: Marker-trait associations will allow for predictive breeding for key traits in all relevant crops
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Delivering Yield Favors Companies That Can Provide Both Breeding and Biotechnology Improvements in Concert
BREEDING + BIOTECHNOLOGY
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INSECT PRESSURE
WEED PRESSURE
NUTRIENT DEFICIENCY
WATER DEFICIENCY
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P
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SEED MANUFACTURING
WEED-CONTROL TRAITS
ABOVE-GROUND INSECT CONTROL
BELOW-GROUND INSECT CONTROL
FOCUS: YIELD
NET REALIZED YIELD
PERCENT OF GENETIC GAIN PRESERVEDX
GENETIC POTENTIAL
WHAT MATTERS TO FARMERS IS THE YIELD AT HARVEST, WHICH IS A FUNCTION OF HOW MUCH POTENTIAL A SEED HAS AND HOW IT’S PROTECTED:
NET REALIZED YIELD WITH CURRENTPROTECTION
NET REALIZED YIELD WITHFUTURE PROTECTION OPPORTUNITIES
GENETIC POTENTIAL PRESERVED THROUGH BIOTECH TRAITS AND PRODUCTION ADVANCES
GENETIC POTENTIAL (FUTURE)
GENETIC POTENTIAL (CURRENT)
NET REALIZED YIELD WITH NO PROTECTION
SECOND-GENERATION INSECT CONTROL
DROUGHT TOLERANCE
IMPROVED NITROGEN UTILIZATION
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BIOTECHNOLOGY
Early Pipeline Work Focuses On Identifying Best Genes and Introducing Leads Into Plants for Development
BIOTECH DISCOVERY
GENE SOURCES:Hundreds of thousands of genes are screened to find candidates for biotech traits• Genes come from plant
sources, including bacteria, fungi, microorganisms (like baker’s yeast) and native genes in plants
• Genes used in insect-protected crops to date are from “bacillus thuringiensis,” or “Bt,” a class of naturally occurring soil bacteria with thousands of different strains that target specific insects
GENE INSERTION:There are two key methods used to insert genes into plants:• Agrobacterium• Particle acceleration (gene
gun)
PARTICLE ACCELERATION – GENE GUN
AGROBACTERIUM
Agrobacterium tumefaciensnaturally inserts DNA segments into plant cells –this is used to transfer identified genes
Gene guns use “biolistics,” using particles coated in DNA that are introduced into plant cells
GENE TRANSFER PLASMID
DNA
AGROBACTERIUM TUMEFACIENS
GENEINSERTIONTRANSFORMED
PLANT CELL WITH GENE
NUCLEUSCHROMOSOME
DNA
GENEINSERTION
NUCLEUSCHROMOSOME
PARTICLE ACCELERATION
TRANSFORMED PLANT CELL
WITH GENE
DNA-COATED PELLETS
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BIOTECHNOLOGY
Biotech Pipeline Follows Pharmaceutical-Like Development
DISCOVERYGene/Trait Identification
PHASE IProof Of Concept
PHASE IIEarly Development
PHASE IIIAdvanced Development
PHASE IVPre-launch
AVERAGE DURATION1 24 to 48 MONTHS 12 to 24 MONTHS 12 to 24 MONTHS 12 to 24 MONTHS 12 to 36 MONTHS
GENES IN TESTING TENS OF THOUSANDS THOUSANDS 10s <5 1
MONSANTO DISCOVERY + COLLABORATIVE PARTNERS
KEY INFLECTION POINT:AFTER PHASE II COMMERCIAL SUCCESS GOES TO >50% WITH LEADS ON COMMERCIAL TRACK
1. Time estimates are based on our experience; they can overlap. Total development time for any particular product may be shorter or longer than the time estimated here.
TRAIT INTEGRATION
FIELD TESTING
REGULATORY DATA GENERATIONREGULATORY SUBMISSIONSEED BULK UP
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BIOTECHNOLOGY
Stage-Gate Model Provides Systematic Evaluation and Built-In Cost Prioritization
DISCOVERYGene/Trait Identification
PHASE IProof Of Concept
PHASE IIEarly Development
PHASE IIIAdvanced Development
PHASE IVPre-launch
AVERAGE DURATION1 24 to 48 MONTHS 12 to 24 MONTHS 12 to 24 MONTHS 12 to 24 MONTHS 12 to 36 MONTHS
KEY ACTIVITY
• High-throughput gene screening
• Model crop testing
• Optimizing gene in greenhouse and fields to establish proof of concept
• Commercial transformations of genes into crop plants
• Scale up events for large-scale field testing
• Extensive field testing to generate regulatory data and for agronomic testing
• Completion of regulatory submissions
• Commercial seed bulk up
TRIGGER TO ADVANCE TO NEXT PHASE
AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS2
5% 25% 50% 75% 90%
RELATIVE R&D COST PER PROJECT3
1. Time estimates are based on our experience; they can overlap. Total development time for any particular product may be shorter or longer than the time estimated here.2. This is the estimated average probability that the traits will ultimately become commercial products, based on our experience. These probabilities may change over time.3. Relative cost reflects an estimate of cumulative costs for a composite project. Actual spending will vary for any individual project.
GENE LEADS IDENTIFIED
“BEST” GENES IDENTIFIED
LEAD EVENTS SELECTED
REGULATORY PACKAGES SUBMITTED
RELEVANT REGULATORY REVIEWS COMPLETED
COST-INFLECTION POINT:PER-PROJECT COSTS ONLY MOVE UP ONCE COMMERCIAL TRANSFORMATIONS ARE MADE, AND THE PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS ALSO INCREASES
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Over the Last Decade, First-Generation Biotech Traits Have Revolutionized Farmers’ Approaches to Weeds and Bugs
BIOTECHNOLOGY
FIRST-GENERATION TRAITS
CORN SOYBEANS COTTON
WEED CONTROL
INSECT CONTROL
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YIELDGARD CORN BORER (1997)
YIELDGARDROOTWORM (2003)
ROUNDUP READYSOYBEANS (1996)
ROUNDUP READYCORN (1998)
ROUNDUP READYCOTTON (1997)
BOLLGARDCOTTON (1996)
BIOTECHNOLOGYGLOBAL IMPACT: FIRST DECADE
PRODUCTIVITY:Yield of key crops like corn, soybeans and cotton increased by 6.8B lbs in the U.S. in 2004
ECONOMIC RETURN: $6.5B increase in farm income in 2004Cumulative increase in farm income of $27B from 1996-2004
PESTICIDE REDUCTION: 379M lbs, 6% reduction
ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFIT: Reduced >10B kg carbon dioxide emission, equal to removing 5 M cars from the road for a year
Source: Graham Brooks, 2005, www.agbioforum.org; NCFAP report, 2005; Ford Runge & Barry Ryan 2004
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YieldGard Rootworm Corn
Second Year of Drought Pressure in Central Corn Belt Demonstrates Performance Value of YieldGard Rootworm
BIOTECHNOLOGY
KEY MARKET ACRES U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA
AVAILABLE MARKET 25-30M 5M 1M
PERCENT PENETRATED 40% 0% 0%
Commercial PortfolioYieldGard Rootworm
SITUATION:
RETAIL VALUE/ACRE: $17-$19/acre
TOTAL ACRE OPPORTUNITY: 25-30M (U.S.)
• YieldGard Rootworm delivers effective and consistent in-plant protection against western, northern and Mexican corn rootworms
VALUE CONSIDERATIONS:
LOCATION:
Ogallala Aquifer, Colorado
ACTIVITY: First year of moisture probe studies comparing water use
OBSERVATIONS:
One of the benefits of better-protected, stronger roots is that corn plants can better use the available water –making YieldGard Rootworm an effective “drought” trait
SOIL PROBE ANALYSIS OF WATER USE COMPARISONS OF SIMILAR GENETICS IN COLORADO
Soil InsecticideDKC 61-72 with Force®
YieldGard RootwormDKC 61-68 (YieldGard Plus)
HIGH WATER ABSORPTION
MODERATE WATER ABSORPTION
LOW WATER ABSORPTION
Water Use Key
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Continued R&D Innovation Expands Breadth and Depth From First-Generation Platform
BIOTECHNOLOGY
FIRST-GENERATION TRAITSR&D PIPELINE ADVANCEMENTS
SELECTED UPGRADES AND NEW TARGET CONCEPTS
CORN SOYBEANS COTTON CORN SOYBEANS COTTON
WEED CONTROL
• Roundup Ready corn
• Roundup Readysoybeans
• Roundup Readycotton
• Roundup Ready Corn 2
• Roundup RReady2Yieldsoybeans
• Roundup Ready Flex cotton
INSECT CONTROL
• YieldGardCorn Borer
• YieldGard Rootworm
• Bollgardcotton
• YieldGard VTRootworm/RR2 (2ND GEN ROOTWORM)
• YieldGard VT PRO(2ND GEN CORN BORER)
• Insect-protected soybeans
• Bollgard IIcotton
• Bollgard III cotton
YIELD & STRESS
TOLERANCE
• Drought-tolerant corn
• Nitrogen-utilization corn
• Higher-yielding soybeans
• Drought-tolerant soybeans
• Drought-tolerant cotton
FEED PROCESSING
• Mavera™ high-value corn with lysine
• Mavera ™
high-value soybeans
HEALTHIER FOODS
• Vistive brand soybeans
• Omega-3 soybeans
NEW
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Green text = CommercializedBlack text = Currently in development or pending commercialization
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KEY MARKET ACRES U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA
AVAILABLE MARKET 70M 50M 35M
PERCENT PENETRATED 0% 0% 0%Roundup RReady2Yield SoybeansP R O J E C T
BIOTECHNOLOGY
R&D PipelineRoundup Ready2Yield soybeans
SITUATION:
• Value is additive, with target of up to 5 bushel-per-acre yield improvement over comparable Roundup Ready soybeans
RETAIL VALUE/ACRE: $10 - $30/acreTOTAL ACRE
OPPORTUNITY: 155M acres
2006 STATUS: On Track
• Yield data from 45 trials will be shared in January
VALUE CONSIDERATIONS:
ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD IN THE FIELDFIELD TRIAL PHOTOS FROM 2006
LOCATION:Stonington, Illinois
ACTIVITY: Monsanto researchers check performance indicators in the fields such as plant height, and pod size and number
OBSERVATIONS:25 locations across the U.S. tested
11,000 lines tested in 45 trials
Second-Generation Roundup RReady2Yield Soybeans Offer Yield Improvement Over First-Generation
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P R O J E C T
DROUGHT TOLERANT CORN IN THE FIELDFIELD TRIAL PHOTOS FROM 2006
BIOTECHNOLOGY
R&D PipelineDrought-tolerant corn
SITUATION:
2006 STATUS: On Track
• Continued expansion of testing in lead genes and events in moisture-stressed and broad acre environments
• Currently testing hundreds of genes across several generations of drought traits
• Results will be shared in JanuaryVALUE CONSIDERATIONS:
• Value of trait reflects better yields under moisture-stressed conditions
• Value will be specific to variable costs of water use by farmers, rather than fixed costs of irrigation
RETAIL VALUE/ACRE: $10 - $30/acreTOTAL ACRE
OPPORTUNITY: 164M acres
Drought-Tolerant Corn Targets Issue of Water-Use Efficiency in Agriculture
Drought-tolerant corn 0%0%0%PERCENT PENETRATED
24M
EUROPE
30M80MAVAILABLE MARKET
BRAZILU.S.KEY MARKET ACRES
LOCATION:Vacaville, California
ACTIVITY: Monsanto researcher checks performance indicators in the field such as chlorophyl content, ear size, and plant height
OBSERVATIONS:Confirming third year of field trial data in U.S.
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Omega-3 Soybeans Offer Plant-Based Source of Heart-Healthy Oils
Omega-3 soybeans
BIOTECHNOLOGY
R&D PipelineOmega-3 soybeans
SITUATION:
• Value created through a product with similar profile to soybean oil in taste, shelf-life and oil stability but with a superior nutritional and taste profile to fish oil
RETAIL VALUE/ACRE: >$30/acre
TOTAL ACRE OPPORTUNITY: 5M acres
STATUS: On Track
• Extensive field testing for lead events in U.S.
• Food formulation results will be shared in January
VALUE CONSIDERATIONS:
In taste-testing, Omega-3 oil containing stearidonic acid (SDA) oil compares favorably versus fish oil and commodity soy oilTesting also focused on field performance, demonstrating Omega-3 soybean yield on par with commodity soybeans – an important factor to farmers growing specialty crops
OMEGA-3 OIL TASTE RESULTS FROM 2005
Taste Rating 0-15 ScaleScore of zero indicates no flavor
Salad Dressing with SDA Oil
0%PERCENT PENETRATED
5MAVAILABLE MARKET
U.S.KEY MARKET ACRES
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Soy Oil SDA Oil Fish OilOmega-3
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Monsanto Has a Balanced Pipeline With Core Projects for Farmers, Food and Feed Processors, and Consumers
BIOTECHNOLOGY
R&D PipelineSITUATION:
In FY2006:• Three products exited the
pipeline for commercialization• There was positive movement
– advancing phases or adding to the pipeline – in 50 percent of the pipeline projects
• Three projects were designated as “HIT” projects reflecting our confidence in their commercial track
Bollgard III
2nd-Gen Drought-tolerant corn
YieldGard Rootworm II
Dicamba-tolerant soybeans
Omega-3 soybeansVistive III soybeansVistive II soybeansImproved-protein soybeans High oil soybeans for processing1
Feed Corn with balanced proteins1
2nd-Gen High-value corn with lysine1
Mavera™ II High-value soybeans1
Mavera™ I High-value soybeans1
Mavera™ High-value corn with lysine1
PHASE IVPre-launch
PHASE IIIAdvanced Development
PHASE IIEarly Development
PHASE IProof Of Concept
DISCOVERYGene/Trait Identification
Drought-tolerant corn
Insect-protected soybeans
Soybean nematode-resistance
Higher-yielding canola
Roundup RReady2Yield canolaRoundup RReady2Yield soybeans
Higher-yielding soybeansNitrogen utilization cornHigher-yielding cornDrought-tolerant cottonDrought-tolerant soybeans
2nd-Gen YieldGard Corn BorerYieldGard VT Rootworm/RR2 Dicamba-tolerant cotton
Roundup Ready Flex cotton
1. These product candidates are in the Renessen pipeline. Renessen is a Monsanto/Cargill joint venture
As of Jan. 1, 2006
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Agricultural Research Has Incredible Potential Over the Next Decade
SUMMARY
PHASE II PHASE III PHASE IVPHASE IDISCOVERY LAUNCH
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GGermplasmR
SEED SOLD TO FARMERS
R&D PHASE: PHASE II PHASE III PHASE IVPHASE IDISCOVERY LAUNCH
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GGermplasmR
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R&D PHASE:
TRENDS DRIVING AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH
YieldPer-acre productivity is paramount to farmers
BiofuelsU.S. will need 25M+ acres of corn and 10M+ acres of soybeans to supply biofuel needs by 2010
WaterAgriculture is responsible for 75% of freshwater withdrawal
Nitrogen UseElevated petroleum prices have spotlighted the costs of nitrogen-based fertilizers
Healthier FoodsIncreasingly health-conscious consumers are demanding healthier food solutions
Breeding and biotechnology come together to position Monsanto uniquely to target important opportunities and trends in the agricultural market
MONSANTO’S R&D OPPORTUNITY