lessons learned from past notable disasters china: part iii e drought episodes

LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS

CHINA: PART III EDROUGHT EPISODES

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna,

Virginia, USA 

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE CHINA’S NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE CHINA’S COMMUNITIES AT RISK COMMUNITIES AT RISK

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE CHINA’S NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE CHINA’S COMMUNITIES AT RISK COMMUNITIES AT RISK

FLOODS

TYPHOONS

EARTHQUAKES

LANDSLIDESS

DROUGHT EPISODES

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

ENACT AND IMPLEMENT POLICIES HAVING HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE

ENACT AND IMPLEMENT POLICIES HAVING HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE

GOAL: DISASTER GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

GOAL: DISASTER GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

DROUGHT IN CHINA: 2010-2011

DROUGHT is an environmental extreme that is

characterized by an absence of precipitation in the local and

regional water cycle as a consequence of interactions of

elements of the atmosphere,

hydrosphere, and lithosphere.

DROUGHT is an environmental extreme that is

characterized by an absence of precipitation in the local and

regional water cycle as a consequence of interactions of

elements of the atmosphere,

hydrosphere, and lithosphere.

PROLONGED LACK OF PRECIPITATION

DROUGHTS DROUGHTS

LOSS OF SOIL MOSTURE

LOSS OF CROPS

DEPLETION/POLLUTION OF GROUND WATER

LOSS OF VEGETATION

INSECT INFESTATION

LOSS OF USE OF AG. LAND

CAUSES & CONSE-

QUENCES

CAUSES & CONSE-

QUENCES

DISASTER LABORATORIES

DISASTER LABORATORIES

THE 2010-2011 DROUGHT EPISODE IN CHINA

• The 2010–2011 drought episode, which began in late 2010 after a severe lack of rain and snow, was China’s worst drought episode in 60 years.

THE 2010-2011 DROUGHT EPISODE IN CHINA

• Eight of China’s provinces (Anhui, Gansu, Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shaanxi, Shandong, and Shanxi), all wheat -producing regions, were impacted by the drought.

MAP OF CHINA’S PROVINCES

IMPACTS

• The drought caused water shortages for an estimated 2.31 million people and 2.57 million livestock.

IMPACTS

• Within the eight provinces, 20% of the farmland and 35% of the wheat crop was impacted.

IMPACTS

• The Hubei lake shrank to one-eighth of its normal surface area and one-fifth its usual depth, forcing 3,234 local residents to relocate.

IMPACTS

• By June, 2011, the drought had affected 35 million people, including 4.2 million facing a drinking water shortage.

IMPACTS

• By June, direct economic losses had reached 15 billion yuan (about 2.3 billion USD).

THE PARADOX: While these 8 provinces

were experiencing drought, other provinces were

experiencing flooding.

UNDERSTANDING DROUGHT

A Slow-Onset, Natural Phenomenon That Can Happen

Anywhere

Drought– A Natural Phenomenon That Can Cause Disasters

Planet Earth’s atmospheric-oceanic-lithospheric interactions cause:

Droughts

CHARACTERISTICS OF DROUGHT

CHARACTERISTICS OF DROUGHT

• SLOW ONSET• DIVERSE IN LOCATION

AND DURATION• DIFFICULT TO

MEASURE THE DURATION AND THE EXTENT OF THE SOCIETAL IMPACTS

• SLOW ONSET• DIVERSE IN LOCATION

AND DURATION• DIFFICULT TO

MEASURE THE DURATION AND THE EXTENT OF THE SOCIETAL IMPACTS

DROUGHT HAZARDS

DROUGHT HAZARDS (AKA Potential disaster Agents)

• HIGH TEMPERATURES

• VERY LOW HUMIDITY

• LOSS OF SOIL MOISTURE

• VANISHING STREAMS, LAKES, AND WATER TABLES

DROUGHT LINKAGES AND RISKS

• Drought is linked to loss of water quantity and quality, which can lead to major loss of life (people and livestock), loss of livelihoods, loss of habitats, and sometimes famine.

NOTE:Between 108 BC and 1911

AD, 1,828 famines of varying severity occurred in China

(i.e., one nearly every year in at least one province)

NOTE:Millions in China have died

from lack of food.

DROUGHT RISKS

CHINA;S CHINA;S COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES

CHINA;S CHINA;S COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES

DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•DROUGHT HAZARDS•LOCATIONS

DROUGHT RISK DROUGHT RISK

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

DROUGHT DISASTER DROUGHT DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

•MONITORING • ADAPTATION•PREPAREDNESS

POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS

HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS

ELEMENTS OF RISKELEMENTS OF RISKELEMENTS OF RISKELEMENTS OF RISK

EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION

RISKRISKRISKRISK

E

DECREASE IN DECREASE IN WATER QUALITY WATER QUALITY

DECREASE IN DECREASE IN WATER QUALITY WATER QUALITY

UNACCEPTABLE RISKUNACCEPTABLE RISKUNACCEPTABLE RISKUNACCEPTABLE RISK

DECREASE IN WATER DECREASE IN WATER QUANTITY QUANTITY

DECREASE IN WATER DECREASE IN WATER QUANTITY QUANTITY

SUSCEPTIBILITY SUSCEPTIBILITY TO WILDFIRESTO WILDFIRES

SUSCEPTIBILITY SUSCEPTIBILITY TO WILDFIRESTO WILDFIRES

ECONOMIC LOSS; ECONOMIC LOSS; FAMINE; DEATHSFAMINE; DEATHS

ECONOMIC LOSS; ECONOMIC LOSS; FAMINE; DEATHSFAMINE; DEATHS

RISKRISKRISKRISK

DROUGHT RISKS (FOR A SLOW ONSET NATURAL

HAZARD)

• Loss of life (People and animals)

• Loss of livelihoods and habitats

• Loss of crops and agricultural land (e.g., from desertification)

• Reductions in water quantity and quality

DROUGHT RISKS (FOR A SLOW ONSET NATURAL

HAZARD)

• Large-scale migrations of people from areas experiencing droughts and famines.

FACILITATING ACHIEVEMENT OF DROUGHT DISASTER

RESILIENCE

FACILITATING ACHIEVEMENT OF DROUGHT DISASTER

RESILIENCE

EMERGING TECNOLOGIES

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR DROUGHT RESILIENCE

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR DROUGHT RESILIENCE

• WEATHER FORECASTS

• MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., REMOTE SENSING)

• WARNING SYSTEMS

• WEATHER FORECASTS

• MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., REMOTE SENSING)

• WARNING SYSTEMS

• DATABASES FOR PAST DROUGHTS

• COMPUTER MODELS OF DROUGHT

• MAPS • DISASTER

SCENARIOS• HAZARD

ASSESSMENT • RISK ASSESSMENT

• DATABASES FOR PAST DROUGHTS

• COMPUTER MODELS OF DROUGHT

• MAPS • DISASTER

SCENARIOS• HAZARD

ASSESSMENT • RISK ASSESSMENT

DROUGHT DISASTER RESILIENCE

DROUGHT DISASTER RESILIENCE

• PURPOSE

• IDENTIFICATION OF DROUGHT PRECURSORS

• ALERT AND WARNING

• PURPOSE

• IDENTIFICATION OF DROUGHT PRECURSORS

• ALERT AND WARNING

• TECHNIQUE• REMOTE SENSING;

SITE-SPECIFIC MONITORING; MODELING

• PUBLIC AWARENESS; EDUCATION

• TECHNIQUE• REMOTE SENSING;

SITE-SPECIFIC MONITORING; MODELING

• PUBLIC AWARENESS; EDUCATION

DROUGHT DISASTER RESILIENCEDROUGHT DISASTER RESILIENCE

• PURPOSE

• PROTECT WATER QUANTITY

• PROTECT WATER QUALITY

• PURPOSE

• PROTECT WATER QUANTITY

• PROTECT WATER QUALITY

• TECHNIQUE

• RESERVOIRS; CONSERVATION

• ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING; WATER TREATMENT

• TECHNIQUE

• RESERVOIRS; CONSERVATION

• ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING; WATER TREATMENT

DROUGHT DISASTER RESILIENCEDROUGHT DISASTER RESILIENCE

• PURPOSE

• LAND-USE CONTROL

• ADAPTATION TO THE SITUATION

• PURPOSE

• LAND-USE CONTROL

• ADAPTATION TO THE SITUATION

• TECHNIQUE

• DROUGHT-RESISTANT CROPS AND VEGETATION

• COMMUNITY DROUGHT RESPONSE PLAN

• TECHNIQUE

• DROUGHT-RESISTANT CROPS AND VEGETATION

• COMMUNITY DROUGHT RESPONSE PLAN

POLICY POLICY ADOPTIONADOPTION

POLICY POLICY ADOPTIONADOPTION

RISK ASSESSMENT

• VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY

• EXPOSUREEXPOSURE

• EVENTEVENT

POLICY ASSESSMENT

• COSTCOST

• BENEFITBENEFIT

•CONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCES

TOWARDS DROUGHT DISASTER TOWARDS DROUGHT DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

DROUGHTSDROUGHTSDROUGHTSDROUGHTS EXPECTED EXPECTED LOSSLOSS

EXPECTED EXPECTED LOSSLOSS