Global Food Security: The Role of Research

Bob Watson

Chief Scientific Advisor, UK Defra

Strategic Director Tyndall Centre, UEA

Former Director of the IAASTD

Leeds University

22nd June, 2011

Current Situation and Future Challenges for Agriculture

Current Situation

Current situation

• More than one billion people go to bed

hungry every day

• People have benefited unevenly

from yield increases across

regions, in part because of different

institutional and policy

environments – rural development,

market and trade policy failures

• Emphasis on increasing yields and

productivity has in some cases had

negative consequences on

environmental sustainability – soils,

water, biodiversity, climate change

….and failing to end hunger

Undernourishment data versus the MDG target

Source: Oxfam (2010) Data cited from FAO Hunger Statistics (from 1969 to 2006); UN (2009)

2007-08 Food price spike

Mill

ions

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Agriculture and Environmental Degradation

Can GHG emissions be reduced without impacting productivity

How will the loss of genetic diversity affect future agriculture?

Can soil and water degradation be reversed and productivity enhanced?

Can crop, animal and fish traits be improved to address the projected changes in climate – what are the roles of traditional breeding and modern forms of biotechnology – genomics?

Current Challenges

Access to current technologiesAccess to best seeds, agro-chemicals, and irrigation

Knowledge about agro-ecological practices – INRM, IPM, and use of seasonal climate projections to reduce vulnerability to current climate variability

Reduce post-harvest loss and food waste

Rural development Extension services

Financing

Roads – access to markets

Trade reform Eliminate OECD production subsidies

Eliminate tariff escalation on processed products

Recognize the special needs of the least developed countries through non- reciprocal market access

Action on waste and demand

”

Waste in different countries

Current situation and Future Challenges

Future Challenges

Future Challenges

The demand for food will double within the next 25-50 years, primarily in developing countries, and the type and nutritional quality of food demanded will change

We need sustained growth in the agricultural sector (crops, livestock, fisheries, forests, biomass, and commodities):

to feed the world

to enhance rural livelihoods

to stimulate economic growth

Meet food safety standards

environmentally and socially sustainable manner

The Context - Limitations

Less labor - diseases and rural to urban migration

Less water – competition from other sectors and climate

change in arid- and semi-arid areas

Yield increases are slowing dramatically

Less arable land – competition, e.g., bio-energy

Increasing land policy conflicts

Loss of biodiversity: genetic, species and ecosystem

Increasing levels of pollution – ozone and acid deposition

A changing climate – temperature and precipitation

Cereal Yield Increases

Surface Temperature Projections

Precipitation Projections

Impact on Wheat Production

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Income and population growth drive prices higher (price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline

economy and demography)

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Climate change scenario effects differ(price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline economy and

demography)

Minimum and maximum effect

from four climate

scenarios

Current situation and Future Challenges

The Way Forward

Options to increase production

Today’s hunger problems can be addressed with appropriate use of

current technologies, emphasizing agro-ecological practices (e.g.,

no/low till, IPM, INRM), coupled with decreased post-harvest losses

Small-scale farmers need access to the best seeds, financing and

access to markets

Advances in S&T are always a needed but cannot be fully utlilzed

without rural development, institutional and governance reform

Advanced biotechnologies (genomics) may be needed to address

future demands for increased productivity and emerging issues such

as climate change and new plant and animal pests – but the risks and

benefits must be fully understood

Producing more using existing knowledge

• The yield gap

• Best sustainability practice

• Invest in the skills base

– Revitalise extension

• Invest in economic and physical infrastructure

Build social capital for food production

Actual

PossibleWheat

Source: Bruinsma (2009)

Adaptation to Climate Change

• The response of agricultural, pastoral and forest systems to simultaneous changes in atmospheric and climatic parameters:• carbon dioxide -- are there saturation effects, if so at what concentration

level• mean temperature and its variability (day-night and summer-winter ratios)• mean precipitation and its variability• other factors, including tropospheric ozone, UV-B and acid deposition

• The impact of changes in climate and atmospheric composition on:• disturbance regimes, including fires and pest and disease outbreaks

• Adaptation options• planting times• crop selection• irrigation • fertilization • new cultivars -- the role of biotechnology, including transgenic crops –

temperature, drought, pest and salinity tolerance

A Robust Agricultural S&T Program

to produce, by region, the diversified array of crops, livestock, fish, forests, biomass (for energy) and commodities needed over the next 50 years in an environmentally and socially sustainable manner reduce post harvest losses increase productivity per ha through sustainable

intensification address water deficit problems, e.g., through improved

drought tolerant crops, irrigation technologies, etc improve the temperature tolerance of crops combat new or emerging agricultural pests or diseases address soil fertility and salinzation of soils reduce external and energy-intensive inputs improve the nutritional quality of food improve nutrient cycling improve food safety

Climate Change likely to increase the spread of animal diseases

• Ectoparasite infections

• Arthropod vector-borne diseases

• Diseases caused by anaerobic spore-

forming bacteria

• Avian diseases   

• Liver flukes and parasites

Biotechnology

• Genomics is the basis of improved crop traits – classical plant breeding and

GM

• Potential to improve productivity, drought, temperature and pest tolerance

and enhanced nitrogen use efficiency

• Insertion of genes is continuing to cause concern for some consumers and

governments even though GM plants undergo extensive testing

• Health risks – little evidence, robust EU safety processes in place

• Environmental risks – need to understand gene transfer and manage

• Role of companies – some lack consumer trust

• Potential negative impact on poor farmers in developing countries – reliance on

large multi-nationals

Role of Genomics and GM

MaizeMaizeCC44

RiceRice(C(C33 C C44))

GenesGenes

Climate Change, ©JES

© IRRI© IRRI

Adaptation to Climate Change

Climate Change, ©JES

C4 and C3 comparison for current CO2 conditions. WUE

(transpiration) is water-use efficiency, RUE is radiation-use efficiency, PNUE is photosynthetic nitrogen-use effectiveness

Maize is C4 --- Rice is C3

WUE RUE PNUE g DW/kg H2O g DW/MJ mg DW s-1/gN

Zea Maize 2.9 a 3.3 b 1.6 d

Oryza Sativa 1.6 a,c 2.2 b 0.6 d

C4/C3 1.8 1.5 2.7

Current status of GM crops

• Two types of GM crop being grown on widespread basis: insect-resistant varieties and herbicide-tolerant varieties

• In limited range of crop species: soya (64%), maize(24%), cotton (43%) and oilseed rape (20%) - apart from cotton, main outlet is for animal feed

• Other GM traits being developed (e.g. disease-resistance, drought-tolerance, nitrogen efficiency)

• Main GM producers: USA, Canada, Brazil, Argentina, India, China, Paraguay and South Africa. Some limited cultivation of GM forage maize in a few EU countries

Basis for Policy

• Safety must be the top priority

• Evidence-based approach and case-by-case assessment

• Open to the potential benefits – therefore research, coupled with open and transparent field trials, is needed to assess the potential risks and benefits

• Support proportionate and enforceable GM labelling rules to facilitate consumer choice

• Need to develop measures to manage the coexistence of GM and non-GM crops to minimise unwanted GM cross-pollination

• Consumers will need to see real benefits before they are accepted – at least in Europe

Adaptation to Climate Variability

The agricultural and water resource sectors are vulnerable to natural climate variability, e.g., floods and droughts associated with ENSO events

Identify technologies, practices and policies that can reduce the vulnerability of sectors to natural climate variability and can increase resilience to long-term climate change incorporate modern scientific forecasts of ENSO events

into sector management decisions integrated multi-sector watershed management and

appropriate water pricing policieselimination of inappropriate agricultural subsidies

El-Nino

El-Nino conditions lead to floods and

droughts throughout the tropics and

sub-tropics

The climate is projected to become

more El-Nino like

Impact of El-Nino in the Northern Hemisphere Winter

Zimbabwe’s Rainfall Record: 1980-1993

Note the year to year variability and the long-term downward trend

Variability in Agricultural Production

Note the year to year variability and the long-term downward trend

Source: IRI (International Research Institute for Climate PredictionExperimental Climate Forecast Division

AKST Investments

Need to improve efficiency of investment in rural development

China India Thailand Vietnam Uganda

Ranking of Returns to Agricultural Production Agriculture R&D 1 1 1 1 1 Irrigation 5 4 5 4 Education 2 3 3 3 3 Roads 3 2 4 2 2 Telecommunications 4 Electricity 6 8 2 Health 7 4 Soil and Water Conservation 6 Anti-Poverty Programs 5

Ranking of Returns in Poverty Reduction Agriculture R&D 2 2 2 3 1 Irrigation 6 7 5 4 Education 1 3 4 1 3 Roads 3 1 3 2 2 Telecommunications 5 Electricity 4 8 1 Health 6 4 Soil and Water Conservation 5 Anti-Poverty Programs 7 4

Under-investment in agriculture and rural infrastructure

Agriculture and rural infrastructure’s share of public expenditures have declined significantly

EIS recognised three big challenges for the department

• LWEC and the

BBSRC-led food and

farming initiative

• John Beddington

initiative that brings

government

agencies, research

councils and private

sector together

Interdisciplinary working

Understanding and influencing

behaviours

Innovation

Climate Change Adaptation and

Mitigation

Sustainable food

Production

Enhance Environment and

Biodiversity

Support a Strong and Sustainable Green Economy

In Summary: Options for Action

Embed economic, environmental and social sustainability into agricultural

policies, practices and technologies

Address today’s hunger problems with appropriate use of current

technologies, emphasizing agro-ecological practices (e.g., no/low till, IPM

and INRM), coupled with decreased post-harvest losses

Advanced biotechnologies may be needed to address future demands for

increased productivity and emerging issues such as climate change and new

plant and animal pests – but the risks and benefits must be fully understood

Provide payments to the farmer for maintaining and enhancing ecosystem

services

In Summary: Options for Action

Reform international trade, e.g., eliminate OECD production subsidies,

eliminate tariff escalation on processed products, recognize the special

needs of the least developed countries through non-reciprocal market access

Increase public and private sector investment in research and development,

extension services, and weather and market information

Improve public-private-CSO involvement in AKST with accountability for

social and environmental outcomes

Build and reform AKST skill base (basic sciences, social, political and legal

knowledge) and innovation capacities of rural communities and consumers

Conclusions

• Food availability needs double in the next 25-50 years to alleviate hunger and poverty

• Global food security is achievable but business-as-usual policies, practices and technologies will not work

• Climate change poses challenges to the agricultural sector – reducing GHG emissions and adapting to climate change

• Innovation along the whole food chain, involving all relevant stakeholders, is critical

• The farmer must be in the middle – especially the small-scale farmer – participatory processes are critical

• Science and technology is critical – the risks and benefits of all technologies must be evaluated