tyndall centre update presentation 2013

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Tyndall Centre Update: Mitigation … potted account of some recent research

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  • 1. Tyndall Centre Update: Mitigation potted account of some recent research Kevin Anderson Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

2. Finally, this is not a message of futility, but a wake-up call of where our rose-tinted spectacles have brought us. Real hope, if it is to arise at all, will do so from a bare assessment of the scale of the challenge we now face. Anderson & Bows Beyond dangerous climate change Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Jan 2011 3. When I look at this [CO2] data, the trend is perfectly in line with a temperature increase of 6 degrees Celsius, which would have devastating consequences for the planet. Fatih Birol - IEA chief economist and according to the World Bank, at just 4C "There will be water and food fights everywhere, Jim Yong Kim WB president 4. My headline conclusion: Stabilisation at 2C remains a feasible goal just with economic (oikonimia), but not financial (chrematisitc) benefits 5. Research Areas District heating (esp. CHP) CCS/Renewables planning, stakeholder/public perceptions, Bio energy (lead UKs research with strong industry link) Smart grids (technical and how used) Food in a changing climate Growth, green growth, equity (economics, steady state) High-emitters (UK & China) tailoring policies Carbon budgets (revisiting UK budgets) 6. Shale gas - Environmental/Social issues can be mitigated - Climate change implications cannot Shale gas & natural gas are identical They are both high carbon energy sources (75% carbon) For electricity, gas is ~50% of coal emissions per kWh But only lower CO2 if substituted coal is not burnt elsewhere In absence of explicit policies, shale only adds to the carbon burden (see US data). As DECC note: it is difficult to envisage a situation other than shale gas largely being used in addition to other fossil fuel reserves and adding a further carbon burden. 7. Shale gas and UK carbon budgets Emissions from combusting ~10% of British Geological Surveys central estimate of the Bowland shale resource equates to the total 2013-2050 UK carbon budget In brief; if the UK is to pursue shale gas for use in UK power stations it must renege on its own carbon budgets (shale gas will not be a major energy source before ~2025, & the CCC state by 2030 the UK requires almost carbon-free electricity) 8. Nuclear New Tyndall Report into nuclear power within the UK http://www.foe.co.uk/resource/briefings/tyndall_evidence.pdf The mitigation conclusion is that the case for or against nuclear energy within the UK is contextual; i.e. the objectives, in terms of carbon reduction levels, rates of mitigation and timeframe all need to be well specified 9. Shipping International Maritime Organisation (IMO) tasked by UNFCCC to develop Climate Change response (emblematic of most sectors) 10. Mankind is on the horns of a dilemma. our collective way of life [is] eating away at the very support system that enables us to live and breathe. This cannot go on. We need to make some tough decisions, we need to make them now ... Faced with facts we cannot argue against we need to consider our priorities to make sacrifices; we need to start putting "life" ahead of "lifestyle". Efthimios E. Mitropoulos The IMO General Secretarys view on climate change 11. Shipping Two flagship mitigation policies of the IMO are: The energy efficiency design index (EEDI) The ship energy efficient management plan (SEEMP) How do these fair against the IMO and ICSs high-level commitments? 12. Anderson and Bows, 2012, Carbon Management (2012) 3(6), 615628 Superimposing IMO/ICS plans/projections on their high-level commitments 13. 90-140MtCO2 Superimposing IMO/ICS plans/projections on their high-level commitments Anderson and Bows, 2012, Carbon Management (2012) 3(6), 615628 14. 90-140MtCO2 ~1300MtCO2 ~1900MtCO2 Superimposing IMO/ICS plans/projections on their high-level commitments Anderson and Bows, 2012, Carbon Management (2012) 3(6), 615628 15. Shipping lots of low carbon options Existing: Operational change, radically reduce speed (cube relationship with energy consumption) Retrofit: Kites & possibly nuclear New: Wind (kites, flettnor rotors, sails, nuclear, bio) Demand: ~50% of UK shipping is transporting fossil fuels Ports: Cold ironing, renewable onsight (Sulphur & LNG) 16. Shipping yet planning for a 1000% (A2) to 2000% (A1B) increase on their high-level mitigation commitments with the IMO referring repeatedly to such increases as reductions 17. Shipping is in good company Overall there is very clear weakening of the global and UK governments commitment to climate change Virtually every nation & sector is failing to meet its own commitments, or claiming savings that are known to be false (except Swansea?) as for 2C, no nation or sector (including the UK & Wales) is even contemplating such emission reductions (e.g. UK 3-4% p.a., whilst 50:50 chance of 2C demands ~10% p.a. for UK) 18. 2013 UK Context Tax breaks for shale gas development Osbornes (Chancellor) 37GW of unabated CCGTS Highest investment ever in North Sea oil (possible reopening of Scottish coal mines) Expanding aviation & more ports EU Car legislation watered down to be little more that BAU Rejected 2030 decarbonisation target Shell Arctic exploration Myth of CCS 50-80gCO2/kWh 19. China & India (making our computers & running our call centres) Emission in 2020 15-20GtCO2 (~ global 2010) Peak ~2025-30 Population ~40% of global figure GDP/capita < 5% OECD in 2010 Energy growth ~5-8% p.a. 20. We must escape the shackles of a twentieth century mind- set if we are ever to resolve twenty-first century challenges This will demand leadership, courage, innovative thinking, engaged teams, difficult choices & pain for high emitters Cybil exemplified what this may look like for Swansea 21. Tyndall Centre Radical Emission Reduction conference Royal Society Dec. 2013 Kevin Anderson Website: http:// kevinanderson.info Twitter: kevinclimate