Climate Change, Food Security and Climate Change, Food Security and DevelopmentDevelopment

Bob WatsonBob WatsonChief Scientific Advisor, DefraChief Scientific Advisor, Defra

andandDirector for Strategic Development, Tyndall Center at UEADirector for Strategic Development, Tyndall Center at UEA

Climate Change and the CommonwealthClimate Change and the CommonwealthMarch 26, 2008March 26, 2008

Climate Change

• Climate change is both a development and global environmental issue, which undermines:

• environmental sustainability• poverty alleviation and the livelihoods of the poor• human health• personal, national and regional security

• Climate change is an inter- and intra-generational equity issue:

• developing countries and poor people in developing countries are the most vulnerable

• the actions of today will affect future generations

Current situation• Food production has Food production has

more than doubled since more than doubled since 19601960

• Food production per Food production per capita has growncapita has grown

• Food prices have fallenFood prices have fallen

• Percent of undernourished Percent of undernourished fallen fallen

• Rural development in Rural development in China, Thailand and parts China, Thailand and parts of Latin America was the of Latin America was the initial stimulus to their initial stimulus to their rapid economic growthrapid economic growth

So what is the So what is the problem?problem?

So what is the So what is the problem?problem?

People have benefited unevenly from these yield People have benefited unevenly from these yield increases across regions, in part because of increases across regions, in part because of different institutional and policy environmentsdifferent institutional and policy environments

Emphasis on increasing yields and productivity has Emphasis on increasing yields and productivity has in some cases had negative consequences on in some cases had negative consequences on environmental sustainability – soils, water, environmental sustainability – soils, water, biodiversity, climate changebiodiversity, climate change

Yield Trends

(from Cassman, 1999)

Current Global GDP is US $33 trillionCurrent Global GDP is US $33 trillion

Global GDP in 2050 is estimated to Global GDP in 2050 is estimated to increase by about a factor of 4 to about US increase by about a factor of 4 to about US $140 trillion$140 trillion

Fisheries CollapseFisheries Collapse

The ChallengeThe Challenge

The demand for food will double within the next 25-50 years, primarily The demand for food will double within the next 25-50 years, primarily in in developing countries, developing countries, andand the type and nutritional quality of food the type and nutritional quality of food demanded will changedemanded will change

Increasing population and economic growthIncreasing population and economic growth

Therefore, we need sustained growth in the agricultural sector (crops, Therefore, we need sustained growth in the agricultural sector (crops, livestock, fisheries, forests, biomass, and commodities):livestock, fisheries, forests, biomass, and commodities):

to feed the worldto feed the worldto enhance rural livelihoods by increasing on- and off-farm to enhance rural livelihoods by increasing on- and off-farm incomeincometo stimulate economic growth to stimulate economic growth

3.6 % p.a per capita GDP growth is needed in low income countries to 3.6 % p.a per capita GDP growth is needed in low income countries to cut poverty in half by 2015cut poverty in half by 2015

Meet food safety standardsMeet food safety standards

environmentally and socially sustainable mannerenvironmentally and socially sustainable manner

The ContextThe Context

LimitationsLimitations Less laborLess labor: HIV/AIDS and endemic diseases: HIV/AIDS and endemic diseases Less waterLess water: increased demand from other sectors and : increased demand from other sectors and

climate changeclimate change Less arable landLess arable land: declining soil fertility, land degradation, : declining soil fertility, land degradation,

urbanization and increasing demand for biofuelsurbanization and increasing demand for biofuels Increasing land policy conflictsIncreasing land policy conflicts Loss of biodiversity: genetic, species and ecosystemLoss of biodiversity: genetic, species and ecosystem Increasing levels of pollutionIncreasing levels of pollution: acid deposition and : acid deposition and

tropospheric ozonetropospheric ozone A changing climateA changing climate: increasing variability and more : increasing variability and more

extreme eventsextreme events

The ContextThe ContextScience and TechnologyScience and Technology Accelerating crop bio-technology breakthroughsAccelerating crop bio-technology breakthroughs Increasing concerns by the public over the Increasing concerns by the public over the environmental and human health implications of transgenic cropsenvironmental and human health implications of transgenic crops Growing IPR concernsGrowing IPR concerns Increasing demands for nontraditional agricultural products Increasing demands for nontraditional agricultural products

(agro-pharmaceuticals)(agro-pharmaceuticals) Growing role of information technology in Growing role of information technology in agricultureagriculture

Trade and MarketsTrade and Markets

WTO agriculture talks in disarrayWTO agriculture talks in disarray

Persistence of agricultural subsidiesPersistence of agricultural subsidies

Trade barriers between and within countriesTrade barriers between and within countries

Lack of infrastructure in many developing countriesLack of infrastructure in many developing countries

The ContextThe Context

Shifts in funding levels and sources for agricultural Shifts in funding levels and sources for agricultural R&DR&DPublic sector research funding, especially that relevant to Public sector research funding, especially that relevant to

developing countries has been irregular and has not increased developing countries has been irregular and has not increased with time with time

Private sector funding growing, but the focus is primarily on Private sector funding growing, but the focus is primarily on OECD marketsOECD markets

Targeted investments in S&T can yield enormous benefits –Targeted investments in S&T can yield enormous benefits –but are the current public and private sector research activities but are the current public and private sector research activities adequate and effective?adequate and effective?

Estimated Percentage of Labor Estimated Percentage of Labor Force Lost to AIDS by 2020Force Lost to AIDS by 2020

0

5

10

15

20

25

Agricultural Practices Affect the Environment and Environmental Degradation Affects Agricultural

Productivity

Can crop, animal and fish traits be improved to address the projected changes in climate – what are the roles of traditional breeding and modern forms of biotechnology?

How will the loss of genetic diversity affect future agriculture?

Can soil degradation be reversed and productivity enhanced

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

year

%

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

rainfall variability

GDP growth

Ag GDP growth

Ethiopia

Preliminary results from : A Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy for Ethiopia

From Claudia Sadoff

Climate variability is already a major Climate variability is already a major

impediment to developmentimpediment to development

Perturbation of the Nitrogen CyclePerturbation of the Nitrogen Cycle

Projections of Future Changes in Projections of Future Changes in TemperatureTemperature

Some Areas are Projected to Become Some Areas are Projected to Become Wetter, Others DrierWetter, Others Drier

Annual Mean Precipitation Change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990

Projected Impacts of Climate ChangeProjected Impacts of Climate ChangeSource: Stern Review

% Pollen Germination

100

80

40

60

20

0

% Fertility

32 34 36 38 40 42Max. temperature (°C)

350 LL-1

690 LL-1

RICEHan Yong Kim et al. (1996)

80

40

60

20

010 20 30

Temperature (°C)40

LIME TREEPigott and Huntley (1981)

© J. Sheehy, IRRI

% Fertility

100

80

40

60

20

032 34 36 38 40 42

Max. temperature (°C)

RICESatake & Yoshida (1978) and Horie (1993)

BKN 6624-46-2AkihikariN22

PEANUTVara Prasad et al. (2001)

% Fertility60

45

15

30

028 32 36 40 44

Floral bud temperature (°C)

Water availability• 5 to possibly 25% of global freshwater use exceeds long-term 5 to possibly 25% of global freshwater use exceeds long-term

accessible supplies (accessible supplies (low to medium certainty)low to medium certainty)• 15 - 35% of irrigation withdrawals exceed supply rates and are 15 - 35% of irrigation withdrawals exceed supply rates and are

therefore unsustainable (therefore unsustainable (low to medium certainty)low to medium certainty)

Changes in available waterChanges in available water

Source: Maarten de Wit and Jacek Stankiewicz, Science 31 March 2006, http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/figsonly/311/5769/1917

Crop yields are projected to decrease in the tropics Crop yields are projected to decrease in the tropics and sub-tropics, but increase at high latitudesand sub-tropics, but increase at high latitudes

Percentage Percentage change in average change in average crop yields for a crop yields for a mid-range climate mid-range climate change scenariochange scenario

Even as soon as Even as soon as 2020 crop yields 2020 crop yields in SSA and parts in SSA and parts of Asia are of Asia are projected to projected to decrease by up to decrease by up to 20%20%

Extreme Weather Events are Projected Extreme Weather Events are Projected to Increaseto Increase

higher maximum temperatures, hot days and heat waves higher maximum temperatures, hot days and heat waves over nearly all land areas over nearly all land areas (very likely)(very likely) >> >> increased stress increased stress on livestock and risk to a number of crops on livestock and risk to a number of crops

higher minimum temperatures, fewer cold days, frost days higher minimum temperatures, fewer cold days, frost days and cold spells over nearly all land areas and cold spells over nearly all land areas (very likely)(very likely) >> >> extended range and activity of some pest and disease extended range and activity of some pest and disease vectorsvectors

more intense precipitation events over many areas more intense precipitation events over many areas (very (very likely)likely) >> >> increased soil erosionincreased soil erosion

increased summer drying over most mid-latitude increased summer drying over most mid-latitude continental interiors and associated risk of drought continental interiors and associated risk of drought (likely)(likely) >> >> decreased crop yields and water quantity, and decreased crop yields and water quantity, and increased risk of forest firesincreased risk of forest fires

intensified floods and droughts associated with El-Nino intensified floods and droughts associated with El-Nino events in many regions events in many regions (likely)(likely) >> >> decreased agricultural decreased agricultural and rangeland productivity in drought and flood prone and rangeland productivity in drought and flood prone areasareas

Science, Technology and TradeScience, Technology and Trade

• Aspects of S&T and trade are highly contentious, with Aspects of S&T and trade are highly contentious, with strong views on the implications of S&T and international strong views on the implications of S&T and international trade for the poortrade for the poor

• Many of the challenges facing agriculture over the next Many of the challenges facing agriculture over the next 50 years will require more integrated applications of 50 years will require more integrated applications of existing science and technology, as well as new existing science and technology, as well as new approaches for agricultural and natural resource approaches for agricultural and natural resource managementmanagement

• - - biotechnology, nanotechnology, ICT, IPM, remote biotechnology, nanotechnology, ICT, IPM, remote sensingsensing

• Some challenges will be resolved only by development Some challenges will be resolved only by development and application of new AKST – climate change, animal and application of new AKST – climate change, animal vaccinesvaccines

• A systematic redirection of AKST towards agro-ecological A systematic redirection of AKST towards agro-ecological strategies is needed to address environmental issuesstrategies is needed to address environmental issues

Unique Attributes of IAASTDUnique Attributes of IAASTD Intergovernmental Process with multi-stakeholder bureau comprised Intergovernmental Process with multi-stakeholder bureau comprised

of 30 representatives from government and 30 from civil societyof 30 representatives from government and 30 from civil society

Multiple international agency co-sponsorship (FAO, GEF, UNDP, Multiple international agency co-sponsorship (FAO, GEF, UNDP, UNEP, UNESCO, World Bank and WHO)UNEP, UNESCO, World Bank and WHO)

Well defined user needs formulated through an extensive international Well defined user needs formulated through an extensive international consultative processconsultative process

Inclusion of hundreds of experts from relevant stakeholder groups Inclusion of hundreds of experts from relevant stakeholder groups with geographic balancewith geographic balance

Peer review by governments and expertsPeer review by governments and experts

Approved by a panel of participating governmentsApproved by a panel of participating governments

Unique Attributes of IAASTDUnique Attributes of IAASTDContinued …..Continued …..

Multi-thematic focus embracing: nutritional security, rural Multi-thematic focus embracing: nutritional security, rural livelihoods, human health and environmental sustainabilitylivelihoods, human health and environmental sustainability

Multi-spatial: Global and sub-Global assessments with an Multi-spatial: Global and sub-Global assessments with an intellectually consistent frameworkintellectually consistent framework

Multi-temporal: historical-to-long term (till 2050) perspectives Multi-temporal: historical-to-long term (till 2050) perspectives

Integration of local and institutional knowledgeIntegration of local and institutional knowledge

Assessment of policies and institutional arrangements, as well as Assessment of policies and institutional arrangements, as well as knowledge, science and technologyknowledge, science and technology

OverviewOverview Composed of one Global Assessment and five sub-Global Composed of one Global Assessment and five sub-Global

Assessments.Assessments.• Central and West Asia and North AfricaCentral and West Asia and North Africa• East and South Asia and Pacific East and South Asia and Pacific • Latin America and the Caribbean Latin America and the Caribbean • North America and EuropeNorth America and Europe• Sub-Saharan AfricaSub-Saharan Africa

Primary users and direct beneficiaries will be:Primary users and direct beneficiaries will be:• decision makers in national and local governmentsdecision makers in national and local governments• the private sector the private sector • International agencies (i.e. FAO, UNDP, UNEP, UNESCO, the World Bank, International agencies (i.e. FAO, UNDP, UNEP, UNESCO, the World Bank,

WHO)WHO)• the GEFthe GEF• UN Multi-lateral Environmental Agreements (i.e. UNCBD, UNCCD, UN Multi-lateral Environmental Agreements (i.e. UNCBD, UNCCD,

Ramsar)Ramsar)• the scientific communitythe scientific community• CSOs, including producer groups and consumer groupsCSOs, including producer groups and consumer groups

Overall Structure for the AssessmentOverall Structure for the Assessment

Global Assessment Global Assessment (about 500 printed pages)(about 500 printed pages) Eight chapters, each with key messages (i.e. executive Eight chapters, each with key messages (i.e. executive

summaries)summaries) A Summary for decision makers, which summarizes the key A Summary for decision makers, which summarizes the key

findings of the global assessment findings of the global assessment

Five Sub-global AssessmentsFive Sub-global Assessments (about 250 pages each) (about 250 pages each) CWANA, ESAP, LAC, NAE and SSACWANA, ESAP, LAC, NAE and SSA Typically five chapters each, each with key messages Typically five chapters each, each with key messages A Summary for decision makers, which summarizes the key A Summary for decision makers, which summarizes the key

findings of each sub-global assessment findings of each sub-global assessment

Synthesis Report Synthesis Report (about 100 printed pages)(about 100 printed pages) Synthesizes key findings from global and sub-global Synthesizes key findings from global and sub-global

assessmentsassessments Synthesizes key findings regarding eight thematic issuesSynthesizes key findings regarding eight thematic issues

Expected OutputsExpected Outputs The final inter-governmental plenary is scheduled for April 2008 at The final inter-governmental plenary is scheduled for April 2008 at

which time outputs will include:which time outputs will include:• A series of Global and sub-Global assessments, each with a Summary for A series of Global and sub-Global assessments, each with a Summary for

Decision MakersDecision Makers• A Synthesis Report on key cross cutting issuesA Synthesis Report on key cross cutting issues

Markets and TradeMarkets and Trade NRM issues - availability and access with an emphasis on water, NRM issues - availability and access with an emphasis on water,

biodiversity, land degradation, etc.biodiversity, land degradation, etc. Climate ChangeClimate Change Bio-energyBio-energy Human HealthHuman Health BiotechnologyBiotechnology Community based innovation and traditional/indigenous knowledgeCommunity based innovation and traditional/indigenous knowledge Gender (feminization of agriculture)Gender (feminization of agriculture)

The final plenary will almost certainly raise a number of contentious The final plenary will almost certainly raise a number of contentious issues, where all governments may not be able to agree, e.g., issues, where all governments may not be able to agree, e.g., transgenics, agro-chemicals, and tradetransgenics, agro-chemicals, and trade

On the Ground ImpactOn the Ground Impact Report will help:Report will help:

• national governments and civil society weigh the costs and national governments and civil society weigh the costs and benefits (environmental, social, economic) of technology, policy, benefits (environmental, social, economic) of technology, policy, management and funding options management and funding options

• measure progress in achieving sustainable use objectivesmeasure progress in achieving sustainable use objectives

• identify effective practices for natural resource managementidentify effective practices for natural resource management

• identify practices related to AKST in hunger and poverty identify practices related to AKST in hunger and poverty reductionreduction

• evaluate the range of evidence for controversial issuesevaluate the range of evidence for controversial issues

• focus research on questions that have significant policy focus research on questions that have significant policy implications and are characterized by scientific uncertainty, and implications and are characterized by scientific uncertainty, and hence provide a framework for prioritizing funding for research, hence provide a framework for prioritizing funding for research, especially in the public sectorespecially in the public sector

Key ChallengesKey Challenges

Ensuring appropriate balance of controversial issuesEnsuring appropriate balance of controversial issues• Permitting proponents of all perspectives of the issues to Permitting proponents of all perspectives of the issues to

be heard but not influence in any particular direction the be heard but not influence in any particular direction the outcome of the assessmentoutcome of the assessment

TransgenicsTransgenics Agro-chemicalsAgro-chemicals Trade and markets Trade and markets

• Retaining objectivity in how the information is assessed Retaining objectivity in how the information is assessed and presented.and presented.

• Assuring evidence-based assessmentsAssuring evidence-based assessments

ConclusionsConclusions• Agriculture operates within complex systems and is Agriculture operates within complex systems and is

multi-functional in its naturemulti-functional in its nature

• In many parts of the world the agricultural and water In many parts of the world the agricultural and water sectors are maladapted to current climate variability sectors are maladapted to current climate variability

• Human-induced climate change is a serious threat to Human-induced climate change is a serious threat to agricultural productivity, especially in the tropics and agricultural productivity, especially in the tropics and sub-tropics where there is hunger and under-nutrition sub-tropics where there is hunger and under-nutrition today today

• S&T will play a critical role in addressing issues such as S&T will play a critical role in addressing issues such as climate change, e.g., more resilient agricultural practices climate change, e.g., more resilient agricultural practices and more climate-tolerant seeds (i.e., temperature, and more climate-tolerant seeds (i.e., temperature, drought, salinity and pest resistant)drought, salinity and pest resistant)

• More and better targeted AKST investments, explicitly More and better targeted AKST investments, explicitly taking into account the multi-functionality of agriculture, taking into account the multi-functionality of agriculture, by both public and private sectors can help achieve by both public and private sectors can help achieve development and sustainability goalsdevelopment and sustainability goals