A Presentation of the

Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

Professor Mike HulmeExecutive Director

Climate change – the big questions

• Understanding ‘dangerous’ climate change …..

…. ecology, economics, sustainability, psychology, climate science, ethics ….

• Pathways to decarbonisation …..

….. energy, economics, technology, policy, engineering, spatial planning ….

• Place-based climate protection strategies …..

….. development studies, climate science, land-use economics, ecology, planning

… and then there is the challenge of integration …

A brief history of modelling – re. climate change

• mid-1970s: global climate models – disciplinary, institute-based

• late-1980s: IMAGE 1 – inter-disciplinarity

• early-1990s: ESCAPE – trans-nationality

• mid-1990s: TARGETS – holistic thinking

• late 1990s: IMAGE 2/COOL – interactivity

• late-1990s: participatory integrated assessment – a new paradigm

• early 2000s: eScience – massive modularity

… conclusion – era of virtual institutes deploying the above attributes, solving complex problems through interactive research …

The Tyndall Centre …… key elements of what we do

• Integrated, trans-disciplinary, multi-site research on climate change mitigation, on adaptation and on integration

• Wide engagement and interactivity with national and international stakeholders; partnership based approach

• Outreach, education and opinion-shaping

University of Leeds

University of Sussex

RAL

CLIMATE SCIENCE

APPLIED ECONOMIC MODELLINGARCHITECTURE

ENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGYSCENARIOS & POLICY

TRANSPORTMODELLING

ENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGY

SCENARIOS & POLICY

ENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGY

INTEGRATION

IMPACT & ADAPTATION ANALYSIS

IMPACT & ADAPTATION ANALYSIS

The Tyndall Centre partnership

Tyndall Centre – External Relationships

NGO’s & CHARITIES

FOE, Green Alliance, National Trust, BTO, RSPB…..

GOVERNMENT

DEFRA DfT DTI FCO DfID DoH ODPM

Regional Govt. Devolved Govt.

European Commission

OST

RESEARCH COUNCILS

NERC, EPSRC, ESRC [MRC?]

BUSINESS & INDUSTRY

TRADE ASSOCIATIONS etc.

RESEARCH COMMUNITY

National & International

HADLEY CENTRE

Some Research funding

SOCIETY

EXEC. NDPB’sEnglish NatureEnvironment AgencyCountryside Agency

ADVISORY NDPB’s

EXEC. AGENCIESHA, MCA

Funding Business Liaison Programme

UK CIPMEDIA

Carbon TrustEnergy Saving Trust

TYNDALL

INTERNATIONAL

European Climate Forum

IPCC, UNFCCC

FP6 - enVISAge

Tyndall Centre - Structure

CENTRE MANAGEMENT UEA

Research DirectorExecutive Director

Regional Assistant DirectorsSOUTHAMPTON & UMIST

ADVISORY BOARD x25Private Sector 10Public Sector 5Academia 8NGO 2Annual Assessment PanelX12 AB Members

Review Panel x7 AB Members CENTRE STAFF

• External Communications• Business & Government Liaison• Activities and Web Co-ordination• Scientific Co-ordinator • Administrator• Secretary

Senior Research Fellows (4)

TYNDALL COUNCIL x16Directors, Theme Managers,

and Partner Representatives

TYNDALL COUNCIL x16Directors, Theme Managers,

and Partner Representatives

RESEARCH MANAGEMENT TEAM x10

RESEARCH PROJECT LEADERS x40

RESEARCH STAFF& STUDENTS *

RESEARCH THEME MANAGERS x6

Note: All included in this schematic are referred to as The Tyndall Assembly, together with the founding endorsers of the Centre, the “Tyndall 43”.

12.12.01SUPERVISORY BOARD x5NERC / EPSRC / ESRC

*Includes affiliated students and Visiting Fellows

BREAKDOWN OF TYNDALL CENTRE BUDGET, 2000-2005

Core support 20.64%

Training and events 6.38%

Outreach 4.17%

Core research 13.37%

Existing research projects - internal 32.67%

Existing research projects - external 16.09%

Research projects - not yet allocated 6.68%

Total budget = £10m

Total for project based research = 55.44%Total for all research = 68.81%Note: the above breakdown may be subject to adjustment

21%

6%

7%16%

33%

13%4%

Tyndall Centre – additional funders

• International: EU FP5, Government of Portugal, GEF/UNEP, Earth Negotiation Bulletin

• UK Government: DEFRA, DTI, DfID, Environment Agency, Sustainable Development Commission, Eastern England Development Agency

• UK Research Councils: ESRC, NERC, MRC, Joint Infrastructure Fund

• NGOs: English Nature, Joint Nature Conservation Council, Gulbenkian Foundation

• Business: Powergen, Shell International, Hoare Lee Engineering, Process Integration Consortium, Renewables Northwest

Organised around four research themes

• Decarbonising modern societies – a ‘targets’ approach

• Adapting to climate change – a ‘questions’ approach

• Sustaining the coastal zone – a ‘place-based’ approach

• Integrating frameworks – a ‘systems’ approach

The Tyndall Wheel

Organised around four main tasks

• Trans-disciplinary research projects

(e.g. mapping pathways towards a 40% UK)

• Innovative agenda-setting

(e.g. integrating development policy with adaptation)

• Strategic assessments

(e.g. equity and justice in adaptation policy; COP8)

• Advancing the science of integration

(e.g. a Community Integrated Assessment Model)

Tyndall integrated assessment objectives

• To design and construct a flexible multi-modular multi-disciplinary community integrated assessment model (CIAM) to address climate policy problems

• To set up an interactive integrated assessment process (IIAP) in which we work with stakeholders and decision-makers to guide the design of the CIAM

Netherlands:ICISHealth module

UK: Tyndall CentreMAGICC-SCENGEN

Climate module(Norwich) Germany: Potsdam

IA Modules (PIAM)DINAS-coastGlobal Ecosystem Module

UK: Tyndall EconomicsModule (Cambridge)

Emissions of 6 COP gases

Feedback

effects

EXAMPLE SCHEMATIC OF SIMPLE PROTOTYPE COMMUNITY INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODEL (CIAM)

Tyndall Centreand eScience

enVISAge – an EU FP6 Network of Excellence?

a Virtual Institute for Sustainability Assessment

       Developing a joint knowledge infrastructure for the execution of a truly European program of research

 

       Fostering fundamental advances in the emergence of a science of integration and a science of sustainability

 

• Ensuring the appropriate application of this research capacity to the production of timely policy-relevant research on important questions concerning the transition to sustainability

A partnership between national centres and networks

Methodology

EconomyEnergy

Social influencesTechnical progress

World TransportWorld Agriculture

Impact SystemEcosystemsAgriculture

HealthHuman systems includingRegionalised sub-modules

Climate System

Emissions of 6 COP GasesSO2, NOx, and PM

Atmospheric concentrations of 6 COP Gases, SO2, NOx,

aerosols

adaptation

mitigation

Ecosystem feedbacks: albedo from land use/icemelt/forest change

Stakeholder influence/social decision making

climate feedbacksinteractions

Direct effects of land use change

on climate