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2018 Annual Economic ForecastDragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy
PRESENTING SPONSOR
EVENT PARTNERS
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The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University, its President, John R. Broderick, the Board of Visitors, the Strome College of Business, or the generous donors who support the activities of the Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy and the Economic Forecasting Project.
2018 Hampton Roads Economic Forecast
Stagnant Growth,Improving Future?
Professor Vinod AgarwalJanuary 31, 2018
2018 Hampton Roads Economic Forecast
Stagnant Growth,Improving Future?
Professor Vinod Agarwal
January 31, 2018
1.62%2.17%
1.49%
2.25%2.12%
-0.04% -1.09%
0.80%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2001 to 2009 2009 to 2015 2015 to 2016 2016 to 2017e
Annual Growth Rate in Real GDPHampton Roads and the United States
United States Hampton Roads
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Data on GDP incorporates latest BEA revisions in September
2017. US GDP is advance estimate while Hampton Roads GDP is our estimates.
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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Peak employment for the United States was January 2008, Virginia was April 2008, and Hampton Roads was July 2007. Seasonally adjusted data through December 2017 (US and VA) and November 2017 (HR). Last month of data are preliminary. Data measure number of reported jobs.
6.47%
4.69%
-2.25%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%1 5 9
13
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
45
49
53
57
61
65
69
73
77
81
85
89
93
97
10
1
10
5
109
11
3
11
7
121
Months Since Pre-Recession Peak
Monthly Job Growth From Pre-Recession Peak Employment
Hampton Roads, Virginia and United States, 2008-2017
United States Virginia Hampton Roads
Defense Spending in Hampton Roads
$522
$574
$584 $581
$490
$500
$510
$520
$530
$540
$550
$560
$570
$580
$590
DoD Budget
Control Act Cap
POTUS Request House
Appropriations
Senate
Appropriations
Bill
ion
s o
f D
olla
rsDoD Base Budget Cap, Request, and Appropriations BillsFiscal Year 2018
Sources: Budget Control Act of 2011, FY 2018 Presidential Budget Request, U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate
Source: U.S. Department of Defense and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. *Includes Federal Civilian and Military Personnel and Procurement. Data for 2016 are estimates and data for 2017 are forecasts.
10.0
19.5 19.2 19.6
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.020
00
20
01
20
02
2003
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
2015
20
16
20
17
Billio
ns
of
Do
lla
rsEstimated Direct DoD SpendingHampton Roads, 2000 to 2017
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Estimated Average Compensation Hampton Roads, Selected Categories
10
2015 2016Change in
Compensation
Military $91,561 $92,189 0.69%
Federal Civilian Govt. Employees
$107,322 $109,624 2.15%
State and Local Govt. Employees
$62,602 $64,164 2.49%
Private Nonfarm $42,189 $41,751 -1.04%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Compensation includes wages, salaries, and benefits.
Where are the jobs?
706.6
775.5
737.1
771.8 769.4
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Tho
usa
nd
s o
f Jo
bs
Average Annual Civilian Jobs
Hampton Roads, 1999-2017
Source: U.S. Department of Labor CES data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Not seasonally adjusted. Data will be revised in March 2018
Source: Virginia Employment Commission: Covered Employment and Wages by Private Ownership and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
-11
-7
-6
-5
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
1
1
1
4
19
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
Construction
Manufacturing
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Information
Real Estate
Admin and Support
Finance and Insurance
Utilities
Management of Companies
Professional and Scientific
Transportation and Warehousing
Accomodation and Food
Health Care and Social Assistance
Change in Private Sector Employment
Selected Industries in Hampton Roads, 2007 Q1 to 2017 Q1
746
827
846835 838
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
820
840
860
Tho
usa
nd
s o
f In
div
idu
als
Civilian Labor Force
Hampton Roads, 1999-2017
Source: U.S. Department of Labor LAUS data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Not seasonally adjusted. Data will be revised in March/April 2018
721
792797 796
803
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
820
Tho
usa
nd
s o
f In
div
idu
als
Number of Individuals Employed
Hampton Roads, 1999 to 2017
Source: U.S. Department of Labor LAUS data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Not seasonally adjusted. Data will be revised in March/April 2018
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Seasonally adjusted data and the Old Dominion University Forecasting Project. Preliminary data: US and VA (Dec 17) and HR (Nov 17). Hampton Roads data only through November 2017.
4.1%
3.7%
4.3%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
Ja
n-0
7
Ma
y-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Ma
y-0
8
Se
p-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ma
y-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Se
p-1
6
Ja
n-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Se
p-1
7
Headline Unemployment Rate (U3)
Hampton Roads, Virginia, and United States
January 2007-December 2017*
United States Virginia Hampton Roads
Residential Housing is Looking Up
$1,338
$551
$978
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
19
91
1992
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
1999
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
2006
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
2014
20
15
20
16
20
17
Millio
ns
of
Do
lla
rsValue of Building Permits for One-Unit Family Homes
Hampton Roads, 1991-2017
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project
14,703
23,492
2,2653,228
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Existing and New Construction Home Sales
Hampton Roads, 2010-2017
Existing Homes New Construction
Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed. Figures reported here
represent only those properties that are listed through REIN by REIN members and may not represent all new construction activity in our region.
15.8%
49.0%
29.0%
4.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Distribution of New Construction Home Sales by Financing Type
Hampton Roads, 2000-2017
FHA VA Conventional Cash
Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed.
$116,900
$223,000 $180,000
$219,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Median Sales Price of Existing Homes
Hampton Roads, 2002-2017
Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. 2002-2007 = 91% increase. 2011-2017 is a 22% increase.
Median Sale Price of Existing Residential Homes for Selected
Cities in Hampton Roads: 2007 and 2017
22Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed. * Williamsburg represents Williamsburg, James City County, York County and Gloucester County. ** Median price in Suffolk peaked in 2006 at $263,950
CityMedian Price
2007
Median Price
2017% change
Chesapeake $250,100 $245,000 -2.0%
Norfolk $195,000 $183,500 -5.9%
Portsmouth $165,500 $140,000 -15.4%
Suffolk** $257,500 $240,000 -6.8%
Virginia Beach $245,000 $247,500 +1.2%
Hampton $180,000 $155,000 -13.9%
Newport News $199,250 $170,000 -14.7%
Williamsburg* $284,450 $283,000 -0.5%
Hampton Roads $223,000 $219,000 -1.8%
0.2%
7.1%
3.6%1.2%
26.6%
8.4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Short Sales and Bank-Owned Sales as Percent of Total Sales
Hampton Roads, 2006-2017
Short Sales REO Sales
Hotel Industry
$520.2
$708.3$645.3
$803.1$841.6
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Mill
ion
s o
f D
olla
rsHotel Revenue in Hampton Roads
2000-2017
Source: STR Global and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
4.9%
3.9%
4.8%
3.0% 2.9%
4.9%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
United States Virginia Hampton Roads
Growth in Hotel Revenue and Revenue Per Available Room
United States, Virginia, and Hampton Roads, 2016-2017
Hotel Revenue Revenue per Available Room
0.16%
4.15%
14.43%
3.85%
5.81%
4.80%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
Williamsburg Market
Virginia Beach
Norfolk/Portsmouth
Newport News/Hampton
Chesapeake/Suffolk
Hampton Roads
Growth in Hotel Revenue
Hampton Roads, 2016 to 2017
Source: STR Trend Report, January 17, 2018, and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Williamsburg Market includes James City County, York County, and City of Williamsburg.
Source: Aidna (2018) market data adjusted by Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy. Excludes shared rooms
$0.42
$2.16
$5.88
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Millio
ns
of
Do
lla
rsMonthly Airbnb Revenue in Hampton Roads
2015-2017
2015 2016 2017
Port of Virginia: Growing rapidly
17.8318.84
21.97
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Millio
ns
of
Ton
sGeneral Cargo Tonnage
Port of Virginia, 2000-2017
Source: Virginia Port Authority and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
1,348
2,128
1,745
2,224
2,841
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Tho
usa
nd
s o
f TE
Us
Twenty Foot Equivalent Container Units (TEUs)
Port of Virginia, 2000-2017
Source: Virginia Port Authority and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
0.330.39
0.43 0.45 0.480.55 0.57
0.770.82 0.84
0.930.98 0.95
1.04
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Millio
ns
of C
on
tain
ers
Movement of Containers by Type of Transportation
Port of Virginia, 2011-2017
Rail Barge & Truck
33
1,158 1,2011,307 1,341
1,4101,514
1,798
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Nu
mb
er
of
TEU
sAverage TEUs per Container Vessel Call
Port of Virginia, 2011-2017
Source: Virginia Port Authority and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
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2017 Forecast 2017 Actual 2018 Forecast
Hampton Roads
Real Gross Domestic Product
Initial Forecast
1.4% -- --
Hampton Roads
Real Gross Domestic Product
Mid-year revision
0.8% -- 1.2%
Civilian Job Growth 0.5% -0.3% 0.5%
Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% 3.9%
Taxable Sales 2.6% 3.0% 3.0%
Hotel Revenue 4.4% 4.8% 3.9%
General Cargo Tonnage 2.7% 5.3% 2.8%
One Unit Housing Permit Value 2.6% 8.5% 2.4%
Source: 2017 data reflects the annual rate of growth, last month, or day business day of 2017 where appropriate.
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