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2018 Annual Economic ForecastDragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy
PRESENTING SPONSOR
EVENT PARTNERS
2
The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University, its President, John R. Broderick, the Board of Visitors, the Strome College of Business, or the generous donors who support the activities of the Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy and the Economic Forecasting Project.
2018 National and VirginiaEconomic Forecast
Accelerating Growth, Increasing Risk
Professor Robert McNab
January 31, 2018
Current and Historical Expansions
5
Expansion Duration
In months
Annual
Employment
Growth
Annual
Real GDP Growth
October 1949 – July 1953 45 4.35% 6.14%
May 1954 – August 1957 39 2.51% 3.67%
April 1958 – April 1960 24 3.58% 4.86%
February 1961 – December 1969 106 3.23% 4.68%
November 1970 – November 1973 36 3.38% 4.60%
March 1975 – January 1980 58 3.52% 4.01%
December 1982 – July 1990 91 2.81% 3.81%
March 1991 – March 2001 120 2.01% 3.45%
November 2001 – December 2007 73 0.88% 2.66%
June 2009 – Present* 103 1.38% 2.14%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research, and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Real GDP in chained 2009 dollars. CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate. Annual Real GDP CAGR derived from quarterly series. Annual employment CAGR derived from monthly series. Current expansion data ends in 2017 Q3. Average annual Real GDP CAGR of previous expansions = 4.21% while average annual employment CAGR from previous expansions = 2.92%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Real GDP measured in chained 2009 dollars. U.S. Q4 and VA Q3 are advance estimates. VA Q4 is our forecast. Quarterly numbers are annualized rates of growth
3.1% 3.2%
2.6%
1.5%2.3%
1.6%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product
United States and Virginia, 2010 - 2017 Q4
United States Real GDP Virginia Real GDP6
7
129,733
147,380
120,000
125,000
130,000
135,000
140,000
145,000
150,000
Ja
n-0
7
Ju
l-07
Ja
n-0
8
Ju
l-08
Ja
n-0
9
Ju
l-09
Ja
n-1
0
Ju
l-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ju
l-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ju
l-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ju
l-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ju
l-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ju
l-15
Ja
n-1
6
Ju
l-16
Ja
n-1
7
Ju
l-17
Tho
usa
nd
s o
f Jo
bs
Total Nonfarm Employment
United States, January 2007 – December 2017
+ 17.65 Million Jobs
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data. Data for December 2017 are preliminary. Trough was February 2010.
3,596.1
3,966.5
3,400
3,500
3,600
3,700
3,800
3,900
4,000
4,100
Ja
n-0
7
Ju
l-07
Ja
n-0
8
Ju
l-08
Ja
n-0
9
Ju
l-09
Ja
n-1
0
Ju
l-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ju
l-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ju
l-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ju
l-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ju
l-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ju
l-15
Ja
n-1
6
Ju
l-16
Ja
n-1
7
Ju
l-17
Tho
usa
nd
s o
f Jo
bs
Total Nonfarm Employment
Virginia, January 2007 - December 2017
8
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data. Data for December 2017 are preliminary. Trough is February 2010.
+400,400 Jobs
9Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Peak employment for the United States was January 2008. Peak employment for Virginia was April 2008.
Seasonally adjusted data through December 2017. December 2017 data are preliminary. Data measure the number of reported jobs by the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program.
6.47%
4.69%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%1 5 9
13
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
45
49
53
57
61
65
69
73
77
81
85
89
93
97
10
1
10
5
10
9
11
3
11
7
Months Since Pre-Recession Peak
Monthly Job Growth From Pre-Recession Peak Employment
Virginia and the United States, 2008-2017
United States Virginia
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates. December 2017 data are preliminary.
10
4.6%
10.0%
4.1%
3.0%
7.4%
3.7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Headline Unemployment Rate (U3)
Virginia and United States, January 2007 - December 2017
United States Virginia
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. U-6 measures total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers. State level data based on 4-quarter moving average. Annual averages are presented.
11
10.1%
8.2%
16.7%
8.5%
6.8%
6.0%
12.9%
7.9%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Alternative Measure of the Unemployment Rate (U6)
Virginia and the United States, 2003-2017
United States Virginia
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Local Area Unemployment Statistics. Seasonally adjusted data. December 2017 data are preliminary.
3,7705,461
7,4609,351
10,911
4,7827,991
6,061
368
19,560
1,549
11,411
18,263
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Dec
2016
Jan
2017
Feb
2017
Mar
2017
Apr
2017
May
2017
Jun
2017
Jul
2017
Aug
2017
Sep
2017
Oct
2017
Nov
2017
Dec
2017
Ind
ivid
ua
lsMonth-to-Month Change in Labor Force
Virginia, December 2016 to December 2017
12
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Local Area Unemployment Statistics. Seasonally adjusted data. December 2017 data are preliminary.
4,402
8,280
13,35813,836
10,304
4,697
8,438
5,331
230
22,158
475
12,832
16,746-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Dec
2016
Jan
2017
Feb
2017
Mar
2017
Apr
2017
May
2017
Jun
2017
Jul
2017
Aug
2017
Sep
2017
Oct
2017
Nov
2017
Dec
2017
Jo
bs
Month-to-Month Change in Employment
Virginia, December 2016 to December 2017
13
14
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data.
63.7%62.7%
77.9%
69.0%
51.5%
57.0%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
1986
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
1997
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
2012
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate
United States, January 1980 – December 2017
Overall Men Women
15
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data.
71.5%
69.7%
65.3%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
72%
74%19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
81
1982
19
83
19
84
19
86
19
87
1988
19
89
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
16
20
17
Labor Force Participation Rate
Virginia, January 1976 to December 2017
16Source: Office of Management and Budget and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Federal deficits in nominal dollars.
$236$128
$158
$378 $413$318
$248$161
$459
$1,413
$1,294$1,300
$1,087
$680
$485$438
$585$666
-$1,600
-$1,400
-$1,200
-$1,000
-$800
-$600
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
2010
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Federal Deficit in Billions of Dollars
17
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Corporate Profits After Tax Without Inventory Adjustment. 2017 is through the 3rd quarter.
9.53%
6.52%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%1950
19
52
19
54
19
56
19
58
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
2006
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
Corporate Profits as Percent of GDP
United States, 1950-2017*
18
32.56
44.20
33.60
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
18
81
18
85
1889
18
93
18
97
19
01
19
05
19
09
19
13
19
17
19
21
19
25
19
29
19
33
19
37
19
41
1945
19
49
19
53
19
57
19
61
19
65
19
69
19
73
19
77
19
81
19
85
19
89
19
93
19
97
2001
20
05
20
09
20
13
20
17
Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earnings Ratio
Standard and Poor’s Composite Price Index
January 1881 – January 2018
Source: Robert Schiller, Irrational Exuberance. Prices and earnings are in January 2000 dollars. Data as of January 16th, 2018 market close. For further information: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
19
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Real GDP measured in chained 2009 dollars. 2017 US is an advance estimate. 2017 VA and 2018 are our forecasts.
2.2%
1.7%
2.6%
2.9%
1.5%
2.3%
3.0%
0.6%
0.0%0.2%
2.2%
0.5%
1.7%
2.2%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018f
Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product
Virginia and the United States, 2012-2018
United States Real GDP Virginia Real GDP
20
2017 Forecast 2017 Actual 2018 Forecast
U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product 2.2% 2.3% 3.0%
Civilian Job Growth 1.5% 1.2% 1.1%
Unemployment Rate 4.7% 4.1% 3.8%
Consumer Price Index 2.8% 2.2% 2.9%
Core Consumer Price Index 2.4% 1.7% 2.2%
3-month Treasury Bill 1.3% 1.4% 2.0%
10-year Treasury Bill 3.2% 2.4% 3.2%
30-year Treasury Bill -- 2.8% 3.6%
30-year Conventional Mortgage 4.3% 4.0% 5.0%
Federal Deficit --- -$655 Billion -$750 Billion
Virginia Real GDP* 1.5% 1.7% 2.2%
Virginia Employment Growth --- 1.4% 1.3%
Source: 2017 data reflects the annual rate of growth, last month, or day business day of 2017 where appropriate. 2017 VA GDP is an estimate based on the first 3 quarters. Data are rounded to nearest tenth.
2018 Hampton Roads Economic Forecast
Stagnant Growth,Improving Future?
Professor Vinod AgarwalJanuary 31, 2018
2018 Hampton Roads Economic Forecast
Stagnant Growth,Improving Future?
Professor Vinod Agarwal
January 31, 2018
1.62%2.17%
1.49%
2.25%2.12%
-0.04% -1.09%
0.80%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2001 to 2009 2009 to 2015 2015 to 2016 2016 to 2017e
Annual Growth Rate in Real GDPHampton Roads and the United States
United States Hampton Roads
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Data on GDP incorporates latest BEA revisions in September
2017. US GDP is advance estimate while Hampton Roads GDP is our estimates.
22
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Peak employment for the United States was January 2008, Virginia was April 2008, and Hampton Roads was July 2007. Seasonally adjusted data through December 2017 (US and VA) and November 2017 (HR). Last month of data are preliminary. Data measure number of reported jobs.
6.47%
4.69%
-2.25%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%1 5 9
13
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
45
49
53
57
61
65
69
73
77
81
85
89
93
97
101
10
5
10
9
113
11
7
12
1
Months Since Pre-Recession Peak
Monthly Job Growth From Pre-Recession Peak Employment
Hampton Roads, Virginia and United States, 2008-2017
United States Virginia Hampton Roads
Defense Spending in Hampton Roads
$522
$574
$584 $581
$490
$500
$510
$520
$530
$540
$550
$560
$570
$580
$590
DoD Budget
Control Act Cap
POTUS Request House
Appropriations
Senate
Appropriations
Billio
ns
of
Do
lla
rsDoD Base Budget Cap, Request, and Appropriations BillsFiscal Year 2018
Sources: Budget Control Act of 2011, FY 2018 Presidential Budget Request, U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate
Source: U.S. Department of Defense and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. *Includes Federal Civilian and Military Personnel and Procurement. Data for 2016 are estimates and data for 2017 are forecasts.
10.0
19.5 19.2 19.6
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.020
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
2012
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Billio
ns
of
Do
lla
rsEstimated Direct DoD SpendingHampton Roads, 2000 to 2017
26
Estimated Average Compensation Hampton Roads, Selected Categories
27
2015 2016Change in
Compensation
Military $91,561 $92,189 0.69%
Federal Civilian Govt. Employees
$107,322 $109,624 2.15%
State and Local Govt. Employees
$62,602 $64,164 2.49%
Private Nonfarm $42,189 $41,751 -1.04%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Compensation includes wages, salaries, and benefits.
Where are the jobs?
706.6
775.5
737.1
771.8 769.4
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Tho
usa
nd
s o
f Jo
bs
Average Annual Civilian Jobs
Hampton Roads, 1999-2017
Source: U.S. Department of Labor CES data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Not seasonally adjusted. Data will be revised in March 2018
-11
-7
-6
-5
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
1
1
1
4
19
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
Construction
Manufacuting
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Information
Real Estate
Admin and Support
Finance and Insurance
Utilities
Management of Companies
Professional and Scientific
Transportation and Warehousing
Accodomation and Food
Health Care and Social Assistance
Thousands of Jobs
Change in Private Sector Employment
Selected Industries in Hampton Roads, 2007 Q1 to 2017 Q1
Source: Virginia Employment Commission: Covered Employment and Wages by Private Ownership and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
746
827
846835 838
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
820
840
860
Tho
usa
nd
s o
f In
div
idu
als
Civilian Labor Force
Hampton Roads, 1999-2017
Source: U.S. Department of Labor LAUS data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Not seasonally adjusted. Data will be revised in March/April 2018
721
792797 796
803
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
820
Tho
usa
nd
s o
f In
div
idu
als
Number of Individuals Employed
Hampton Roads, 1999 to 2017
Source: U.S. Department of Labor LAUS data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Not seasonally adjusted. Data will be revised in March/April 2018
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Seasonally adjusted data and the Old Dominion University Forecasting Project. Preliminary data: US and VA (Dec 17) and HR (Nov 17). Hampton Roads data only through November 2017.
4.1%
3.7%
4.3%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
Ja
n-0
7
Ma
y-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Ma
y-0
8
Se
p-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ma
y-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Se
p-1
6
Ja
n-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Se
p-1
7
Headline Unemployment Rate (U3)
Hampton Roads, Virginia, and United States
January 2007-December 2017*
United States Virginia Hampton Roads
Residential Housing is Looking Up
$1,338
$551
$978
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
1991
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
1998
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Millio
ns
of
Do
lla
rsValue of Building Permits for One-Unit Family Homes
Hampton Roads, 1991-2017
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project
14,703
23,492
2,2653,228
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Existing and New Construction Home Sales
Hampton Roads, 2010-2017
Existing Homes New Construction
Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed. Figures reported here
represent only those properties that are listed through REIN by REIN members and may not represent all new construction activity in our region.
15.8%
49.0%
29.0%
4.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Distribution of New Construction Home Sales by Financing Type
Hampton Roads, 2000-2017
FHA VA Conventional Cash
Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed.
$116,900
$223,000 $180,000
$219,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Median Sales Price of Existing Homes
Hampton Roads, 2002-2017
Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. 2002-2007 = 91% increase. 2011-2017 is a 22% increase.
Median Sale Price of Existing Residential Homes for Selected
Cities in Hampton Roads: 2007 and 2017
39Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed. * Williamsburg represents Williamsburg, James City County, York County and Gloucester County. ** Median price in Suffolk peaked in 2006 at $263,950
CityMedian Price
2007
Median Price
2017% change
Chesapeake $250,100 $245,000 -2.0%
Norfolk $195,000 $183,500 -5.9%
Portsmouth $165,500 $140,000 -15.4%
Suffolk** $257,500 $240,000 -6.8%
Virginia Beach $245,000 $247,500 +1.2%
Hampton $180,000 $155,000 -13.9%
Newport News $199,250 $170,000 -14.7%
Williamsburg* $284,450 $283,000 -0.5%
Hampton Roads $223,000 $219,000 -1.8%
0.2%
7.1%
3.6%1.2%
26.6%
8.4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Short Sales and Bank-Owned Sales as Percent of Total Sales
Hampton Roads, 2006-2017
Short Sales REO Sales
Hotel Industry
$520.2
$708.3$645.3
$803.1$841.6
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Millio
ns
of
Do
lla
rsHotel Revenue in Hampton Roads
2000-2017
Source: STR Global and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
4.9%
3.9%
4.8%
3.0% 2.9%
4.9%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
United States Virginia Hampton Roads
Growth in Hotel Revenue and Revenue Per Available Room
United States, Virginia, and Hampton Roads, 2016-2017
Hotel Revenue Revenue per Available Room
0.16%
4.15%
14.43%
3.85%
5.81%
4.80%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
Williamsburg Market
Virginia Beach
Norfolk/Portsmouth
Newport News/Hampton
Chesapeake/Suffolk
Hampton Roads
Growth in Hotel Revenue
Hampton Roads, 2016 to 2017
Source: STR Trend Report, January 17, 2018, and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Williamsburg Market includes James City County, York County, and City of Williamsburg.
Source: Aidna (2018) market data adjusted by Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy. Excludes shared rooms
$0.42
$2.16
$5.88
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Millio
ns
of
Do
lla
rsMonthly Airbnb Revenue in Hampton Roads
2015-2017
2015 2016 2017
Port of Virginia: Growing rapidly
17.8318.84
21.97
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Millio
ns
of
Ton
sGeneral Cargo Tonnage
Port of Virginia, 2000-2017
Source: Virginia Port Authority and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
1,348
2,128
1,745
2,224
2,841
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Tho
usa
nd
s o
f TE
Us
Twenty Foot Equivalent Container Units (TEUs)
Port of Virginia, 2000-2017
Source: Virginia Port Authority and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
0.330.39
0.43 0.45 0.480.55 0.57
0.770.82 0.84
0.930.98 0.95
1.04
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Millio
ns
of
Co
nta
ine
rsMovement of Containers by Type of Transportation
Port of Virginia, 2011-2017
Rail Barge & Truck
50
1,158 1,2011,307 1,341
1,4101,514
1,798
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Nu
mb
er
of
TEU
sAverage TEUs per Container Vessel Call
Port of Virginia, 2011-2017
Source: Virginia Port Authority and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
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2017 Forecast 2017 Actual 2018 Forecast
Hampton Roads
Real Gross Domestic Product
Initial Forecast
1.4% -- --
Hampton Roads
Real Gross Domestic Product
Mid-year revision
0.8% -- 1.2%
Civilian Job Growth 0.5% -0.3% 0.5%
Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% 3.9%
Taxable Sales 2.6% 3.0% 3.0%
Hotel Revenue 4.4% 4.8% 3.9%
General Cargo Tonnage 2.7% 5.3% 2.8%
One Unit Housing Permit Value 2.6% 8.5% 2.4%
Source: 2017 data reflects the annual rate of growth, last month, or day business day of 2017 where appropriate.
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Presentation slides will be available at:
www.ceapodu.com
Professor Vinod Agarwal ([email protected])
Professor Robert McNab ([email protected])
Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy
Strome College of Business
Old Dominion University
Questions?
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