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2018 Midyear Economic ForecastDRAGAS CENTER FOR ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND POLICY
PRESENTING SPONSOR
MEDIA SPONSORS OTHER SPONSORS
The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University, its President, John R. Broderick, the Board of Visitors, the Strome College of Business, or the generous donors who support the activities of the Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy.
The data in this presentation are subject to revision. To our knowledge,all data in this presentation are accurate at the time of the presentation.
Current and Historical Expansions
4
Expansion Duration
In months
Annual
Employment
Growth
Annual
Real GDP Growth
October 1949 – July 1953 45 4.35% 6.14%
May 1954 – August 1957 39 2.51% 3.67%
April 1958 – April 1960 24 3.58% 4.86%
February 1961 – December 1969 106 3.23% 4.68%
November 1970 – November 1973 36 3.38% 4.60%
March 1975 – January 1980 58 3.51% 4.01%
December 1982 – July 1990 91 2.81% 3.81%
March 1991 – March 2001 120 2.01% 3.45%
November 2001 – December 2007 73 0.88% 2.66%
June 2009 – Present* 106 1.41% 2.16%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research, and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Real GDP in chained 2009 dollars. CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate. Annual Real GDP CAGR derived from quarterly series. Annual employment CAGR derived from monthly series. Current expansion data ends in 2018 Q1 for GDP and March 2018 for Employment. Average annual Real GDP CAGR of previous expansions = 4.21% while average annual employment CAGR from previous expansions = 2.92%. Next update is May 30th, 2018.
5
1.2%
3.1%
3.2%
2.9%
2.3%
0.8%
2.8%
3.7%
2.5%
2.2%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
2018
Q1
Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product
United States and Virginia, 2010 - 2018 Q1
United States Real GDP Virginia Real GDP
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Real GDP measured in chained 2009 dollars. U.S. 2018 Q1 and Virginia 2017 Q4 are advance estimates. VA 2018 Q1 is our forecast. Quarterly numbers are annualized rates of growth. Next update: US (May 30, 2018) and Virginia (July 24, 2018).
129,726
148,424
120,000
125,000
130,000
135,000
140,000
145,000
150,000
Ja
n-0
7
Ju
l-07
Ja
n-0
8
Ju
l-08
Ja
n-0
9
Ju
l-09
Ja
n-1
0
Ju
l-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ju
l-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ju
l-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ju
l-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ju
l-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ju
l-15
Ja
n-1
6
Ju
l-16
Ja
n-1
7
Ju
l-17
Ja
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8
Tho
usa
nd
s o
f Jo
bs
Total Nonfarm Employment
United States, January 2007 – April 2018
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data. Data for March and April 2018 are preliminary. Trough was February 2010. Next update: June 1, 2018
+ 18.70 Million Jobs
6
3,596
3,987
3,400
3,500
3,600
3,700
3,800
3,900
4,000
4,100
Ja
n-0
7
Ju
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Ja
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8
Ju
l-08
Ja
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9
Ju
l-09
Ja
n-1
0
Ju
l-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ju
l-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ju
l-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ju
l-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ju
l-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ju
l-15
Ja
n-1
6
Ju
l-16
Ja
n-1
7
Ju
l-17
Ja
n-1
8
Tho
usa
nd
s o
f Jo
bs
Total Nonfarm Employment
Virginia, January 2007 – March 2018
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data. Data for March 2018 are preliminary. Trough was February 2010. Next update: May 18, 2018
+ 391,100 Jobs
7
8
7.23%
5.24%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%1 5 9
13
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
45
49
53
57
61
65
69
73
77
81
85
89
93
97
10
1
105
10
9
113
11
7
12
1
Recovery from the Great Recession
Measured in Total Jobs Restored, 2008-2018*
United States Virginia
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Peak Pre-Recession Dates are January 2008 (United States) and April 2008 (Virginia). *Data for USA through April 2018, Virginia through March 2018. US data preliminary for March and April 2018. Virginia data preliminary for March 2018. Data from Current Employment Statistics. Seasonally adjusted data.
9
5.86%
4.94%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%1 5 9
13
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
45
49
53
57
61
65
69
73
77
81
85
89
93
97
10
1
10
5
10
9
11
3
11
7
12
1
12
5
Recovery from the Great Recession
Measured in Individual Employment, 2007-2018*
United States Virginia
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Peak Pre-Recession Dates are November 2007 (United States) and July 2008 (Virginia). *Data for USA through April 2018, Virginia through March 2018. US data preliminary for March and April 2018. Virginia data preliminary for March 2018. Current Population Survey data. Seasonally adjusted data.
10
2.9%3.4%
4.6% 3.9%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%Ja
n-0
7
Ju
l-07
Ja
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8
Ju
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Ja
n-0
9
Ju
l-09
Ja
n-1
0
Ju
l-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ju
l-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ju
l-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ju
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Ja
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4
Ju
l-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ju
l-15
Ja
n-1
6
Ju
l-16
Ja
n-1
7
Ju
l-17
Ja
n-1
8
Headline Unemployment Rate (U3)
Virginia and United States, 2007 – 2018
Virginia United States
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates. Virginia data through March 2018 while US data through April 2018. Next update: US: June 1, 2018 and Virginia: May 18, 2018
11
10.1%
8.2%
16.7%
8.3%
6.8% 6.0%
12.9%
7.6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Alternative Measure of the Unemployment Rate (U6)
Virginia and the United States, 2003 – 1st Quarter 2018
United States Virginia
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. U-6 measures total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers. State level data based on 4-quarter moving average. Annual averages are presented. Next update: July 27, 2018.
12
1.12
6.65
1.01
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
720
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Un
em
plo
ye
d/J
ob
Op
en
ing
sNumber of Unemployed Individuals per Job Opening
United States, January 2001 to March 2018
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data. Next update: June 5, 2018.
13
8.51%
6.52%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%19
50
19
52
19
54
19
57
19
59
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
69
19
71
1974
19
76
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
86
19
88
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
98
2000
20
03
20
05
20
08
20
10
20
12
2015
20
17
Corporate Profits as Percent of GDP
United States, 1st Quarter 1950 – 4th Quarter 2017
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Corporate Profits After Tax Without Inventory Adjustment
14
32.6
44.2
31.3
16.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
18
81
18
84
18
88
18
92
18
96
19
00
19
04
19
07
19
11
19
15
19
19
1923
1927
19
30
19
34
19
38
19
42
19
46
19
50
19
53
19
57
19
61
19
65
19
69
19
73
19
76
1980
1984
19
88
19
92
19
96
19
99
20
03
20
07
20
11
20
15
Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earnings Ratio
Standard and Poor’s Composite Price Index
January 1881 – May 2018*
Source: Robert Schiller, Irrational Exuberance. Prices and earnings are in January 2000 dollars. Data as May 1, 2018 market close. For further information: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
15
184.55
197.01
0
50
100
150
200
250
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
2007
2008
2009
20
10
20
11
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
United States, January 1987 – February 2018
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, LLC. Seasonally adjusted series. January 2000 = 100.
16
-11.9%
6.7%
48.1%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Change from Pre-Recession Peak to February 2018
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, LLC. Seasonally adjusted series. January 2000 = 100.
17
68.38
129.88
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Ja
nu
ary
20
00
= 1
00
New Residential Construction
Single Unit and Units in Buildings with 5 Units or More
United States, January 2000 – March 2018
Single Unit Housing 5 or More Units
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data. Annual rate. Next update: May 16, 2018. January 2000 = 100.
18
89%
12%
68%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
2005
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
2014
20
15
2016
20
17
20
18
Cash Out Refinance Activity
United States, 1st Quarter 1994 – 1st Quarter 2018
Source: Freddie Mac, Quarterly Refinance Statistics, 1st Quarter 2018. Percentage of refinances refers to loan amounts that were at least 5 percent higher than the amortized unpaid principal balance of the original loan.
Federal Spending Provides a Short-Term Boost
20
$636$651
$525
2018 CR
2018 Request
2018 BBA
2019 Request
$470
$490
$510
$530
$550
$570
$590
$610
$630
$650
$670
FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019
Billio
ns
of
No
min
al D
olla
rsDepartment of Defense Base Budget
FY 2011 – FY 2019
FY 2011 Enacted with Inflation Original BCA Caps Prior BBA Caps
Source: BCA2011,Budget Requests for FY 18 and FY 19, CBO Sequestration Update Report, Various Years, and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. FY 2011 Actual and FY 2012 Proposed Budget and FYDP. FY 18 and FY 19 are inflated from the FY12 FYDP estimate of FY17.
21
528 528 530495 496 497 521 523
590617
681 694 707 722
163 159115
82 85 6359 82
65.269
20 20 2020$691 $687
$645
$577 $581 $560 $580$605
$655$686 $701 $714 $727 $742
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Billio
ns
of
No
min
al D
olla
rsDepartment of Defense
Discretionary Budget Authority, FY 2010 – FY 2023
DoD Base Budget Overseas Contingency Operations
Source: U.S. Department of Defense and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. FY 2019 Budget Materials. FY 18 base budget includes $5 billion in missile defense authority. Nominal dollars.
22
FY 18
Approved
Units
FY 18
Approved
$ Billions
FY 19
Request
Units
FY 19
Request
$ Billions
Aircraft
F-35 Joint Strike Fighter 90 $11.8 77 $10.7
KC-46 Tanker Replacement 15 $3.1 15 $3.0
F/A-18 Super Hornet 24 $1.8 24 $2.0
AH-64E Apache Attack Helicopter 80 $1.4 60 $1.3
P-8A Poseidon 10 $1.7 10 $2.2
CH-53K King Stallion 4 $1.1 8 $1.6
Shipbuilding
Virginia Class Submarine 2 $5.5 2 $7.4
DDG-51 Arleigh Burke Class Destroyer 2 $4.0 3 $6.0
Littoral Combat Ship 3 $1.7 1 $1.3
CVN-78 Class Aircraft Carrier 1 $4.6 - $1.8
Fleet Replenishment Oiler 1 $0.5 2 $1.1
Towing, Salvage, and Rescue Ship 1 $0.1 1 $0.1
Expeditionary Sea Base - - 1 $0.7Source: U.S. Department of Defense. FY 2019 Budget Materials and FY 2018 Appropriations Summaries. Note that the House Appropriations National Defense Authorization Act contains language authorizing a fleet of 12 operational carriers and a two-carrier procurement.
Good News – For Two Years
23
▪ The passage of the Bipartisan Budget Agreement of 2018 reduces the uncertainty of defense appropriations through FY 2019
▪ The authorizing committees support a two-carrier buy and other increases in ship building
▪ Increasing geopolitical tension will likely continue pressure to increase DoD spending in the medium-term
▪ An opportunity exists to consolidate DoD activities in Hampton Roads
24
-$805
-$981-$1,104
-$1,261
-$1,436 -$1,455 -$1,444-$1,570
-$1,641-$1,797
-$2,029
-$2,500
-$2,000
-$1,500
-$1,000
-$500
$0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Billio
ns
of D
olla
rsCongressional Budget Office: Projected Federal Deficit
FY 2018 - FY 2028
CBO Baseline CBO Alternative Fiscal Scenario
Source: Congressional Budget Office (2018), Budget and Economic Output: 2018 to 2018 and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Federal deficits in nominal dollars. The Alternative Fiscal Scenario assumes that many the provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 would be made permanent and many of the Affordable Care Act taxes are repealed, among others.
25
$263$316
$390$487
$576$655
$721$764 $805
$857$918
$992
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Billio
ns
of
Do
lla
rsProjected Net Interest
United States, FY 2017 – FY 2028
CBO Baseline Alternative Fiscal Scenario
Source: Congressional Budget Office (2018), Budget and Economic Output: 2018 to 2028 and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Interest expenditures in nominal dollars. The Alternative Fiscal Scenario assumes that many the provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 would be made permanent and many of the Affordable Care Act taxes are repealed, among others.
26
2017
Forecast
2017
Actual
2018
Forecast (Jan)
2018
Forecast (May)
U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product 2.2% 2.3% 3.0% 3.1%
Civilian Job Growth 1.5% 1.2% 1.1% 1.2%
Unemployment Rate 4.7% 4.1% 3.8% 3.6%
Consumer Price Index 2.8% 2.2% 2.9% 3.0%
Core Consumer Price Index 2.4% 1.7% 2.2% 2.3%
3-month Treasury Bill 1.3% 1.4% 2.0% 2.1%
10-year Treasury Bill 3.2% 2.4% 3.2% 3.3%
30-year Treasury Bill -- 2.8% 3.6% 3.6%
30-year Conventional Mortgage 4.3% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Federal Deficit --- -$666 Billion -$850 Billion -$825 Billion
Virginia Real GDP* 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 2.7%
Virginia Employment Growth --- 1.4% 1.3% 1.5%
Source: 2017 data reflects the annual rate of growth, last month, or day business day of 2017 where appropriate. Data are rounded to nearest tenth. *The initial forecast for real GDP for Virginia has increased from 2.2% to 2.7% due to increases in federal spending in FY 2018 and 2019 and revisions to quarterly growth in VA during 2017.
2018 Hampton Roads Economic Forecast
Stagnant Growth,Improving Future?
Professor Vinod AgarwalJanuary 31, 2018
2018 Hampton Roads Economic Forecast
Stagnant Growth,
2018 Midyear Hampton Roads Economic Forecast
Accelerating Growth, Challenges Remain
1.62%2.17%
1.49%
2.27%2.12%
-0.04%
-1.09%
0.90%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2001 to 2009 2009 to 2015 2015 to 2016 2016 to 2017e
Annual Growth Rate in Real GDPHampton Roads and the United States
United States Hampton Roads
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Data on GDP incorporates latest BEA revisions in September 2017. Hampton Roads GDP for 2017 is our estimate.
28
29
7.23%
5.24%
-0.15%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%1 5 9
13
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
45
49
53
57
61
65
69
73
77
81
85
89
93
97
10
1
10
5
10
9
11
3
11
7
12
1
12
5
Recovery from the Great Recession
Measured in Total Jobs Restored, 2008-2018*
United States Virginia Hampton Roads
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Peak Pre-Recession Dates are January 2008 (United States) and April 2008 (Virginia). *Data for USA through April 2018, Virginia and Hampton Roads through March 2018. US data preliminary for March and April 2018. Virginia data and Hampton Roads data are preliminary for March 2018.
Source: U.S. Department of Defense and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. *Includes Federal Civilian and Military Personnel and Procurement. Data for 2017 are estimates.
10.00
19.83 19.34 19.96
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.020
00
20
01
2002
2003
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
2014
20
15
20
16
20
17
Billio
ns
of
Do
lla
rsEstimated Direct DoD SpendingHampton Roads, 2000 to 2017
30
Source: Virginia Employment Commission: Covered Employment and Wages by Private Ownership and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
-11-7-6
-5-5
-4-3-2
-1111
419
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
Construction
Manufacturing
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Information
Real Estate
Admin and Support
Finance and Insurance
Utilities
Management of Companies
Professional and Scientific
Transportation and Warehousing
Accomodation and Food
Health Care and Social Assistance
Change in Private Sector Employment: Selected Industries in
Hampton Roads, 2007 Q1 to 2017 Q1 (Thousands)
32
-1.2
29.5
50.0
70.2
100.0
146.3
174.4
198.5
297.0
-50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Hampton Roads
Durham-Chapel Hill
Richmond
Jacksonville, FL
Raleigh
Northern Virginia
Charlotte
Virginia
North Carolina
Net New Civilian Jobs Gained or Lost
Selected Metropolitan Areas, Virginia, and North Carolina
Peak Pre-Recession Employment to March 2018 (thousands)
Source: U.S. Department of Labor CES seasonally adjusted data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Peak pre-recessionary employment occurred in 2008 for all regions except Florida, Hampton Roads, and Richmond which peaked in 2007. Comparison of total nonfarm employment in March 2018 to pre-recessionary peak employment. Data for March 2018 are preliminary.
More Jobs (Slowly)
34
775.5
737.1
771.8772.6
769.4
779.9
690
700
710
720
730
740
750
760
770
780
790
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016P 2017P
Average Annual Civilian Jobs:
Hampton Roads, 2000 – 2017
Source: U.S. Department of Labor CES data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Total nonfarm employment, not seasonally adjusted. Data revised on March 12, 2018.
35
792.4 796.6796.4
797.4802.7813.4
640
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
820
840
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016P 2017P
Tho
usa
nd
s o
f In
div
idu
als
Average Annual Employment :
Hampton Roads, 2000 to 2017
Source: U.S. Department of Labor LAUS data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Annual averages. Not seasonally adjusted. Data revised on April 20, 2018
36
827.0
844.6833.7
836.4837.6
848.7
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
820
840
860
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016P 2017P
Tho
usa
nd
s o
f In
div
idu
als
Average Annual Civilian Labor Force
Hampton Roads, 2000 to 2017
Source: U.S. Department of Labor LAUS data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Annual averages. Not seasonally adjusted. Data revised on April 20, 2018
37
2.9%3.4%
4.6% 3.9%
3.60%0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%Ja
n-0
7
Ju
l-07
Ja
n-0
8
Ju
l-08
Ja
n-0
9
Ju
l-09
Ja
n-1
0
Ju
l-10
Ja
n-1
1
Ju
l-11
Ja
n-1
2
Ju
l-12
Ja
n-1
3
Ju
l-13
Ja
n-1
4
Ju
l-14
Ja
n-1
5
Ju
l-15
Ja
n-1
6
Ju
l-16
Ja
n-1
7
Ju
l-17
Ja
n-1
8
Headline Unemployment Rate (U3)
United States, Virginia and, Hampton Roads, 2007 – 2018
Virginia United States Hampton Roads
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates. Virginia and Hampton Roads data through March 2018 while US data through April 2018. Next update: US: June 1, 2018 and Virginia: May 18, 2018
Residential Housing is Looking Up
39
4,751
6,618
3,435
6,811
4,716
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Existing Residential Home Sales
Hampton Roads, 2006 Q1 to 2018 Q1
Existing Residence 4-Quarter Moving Average
Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed. Figures reported here
represent only those properties that are listed through REIN by REIN members and may not represent all sales activity in our region.
40
$199,900
$168,500
$215,000
$150,000
$160,000
$170,000
$180,000
$190,000
$200,000
$210,000
$220,000
$230,000
$240,000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Median Sale Price for Existing Homes
Hampton Roads, 2006 Q1 to 2018 Q1
Existing Residence 4-Quarter Moving Average
Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed. Figures reported here
represent only those properties that are listed through REIN by REIN members and may not represent all sales activity in our region.
41
918
1,191
504
846
687
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
New Construction Residential Home Sales
Hampton Roads, 2006 Q1 to 2018 Q1
New Construction 4 Quarter Moving Average
Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed. Figures reported here
represent only those properties that are listed through REIN by REIN members and may not represent all new construction activity in our region.
0.2%
7.1%
3.6%1.2%
26.6%
8.4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Short Sales and Bank-Owned Sales as Percent of
Existing Homes Sales: Hampton Roads, 2006-2017
Short Sales REO Sales
42Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed. * Williamsburg represents Williamsburg, James City County, York County and Gloucester County.
Median Sale Price of Existing Residential Homes for Selected
Cities in Hampton Roads: 2007 and 2017
43Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed. * Williamsburg represents Williamsburg, James City County, York County and Gloucester County. ** Median price in Suffolk peaked in 2006 at $263,950
CityMedian Price
2007
Median Price
2017% change
Hampton $180,000 $155,000 -13.9%
Newport News $199,250 $170,000 -14.7%
Williamsburg* $284,450 $283,000 -0.5%
Chesapeake $250,100 $245,000 -2.0%
Norfolk $195,000 $183,500 -5.9%
Portsmouth $165,500 $140,000 -15.4%
Suffolk** $257,500 $240,000 -6.8%
Virginia Beach $245,000 $247,500 +1.2%
Hampton Roads $223,000 $219,000 -1.8%
The Hotel Industry Continues to Grow
$520.2
$708.3$645.3
$803.1$841.6
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mill
ion
s o
f D
olla
rsHotel Revenue in Hampton Roads
2000-2017 4.8%
Source: STR Global and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
46
Percent Change in Hotel Revenue within Hampton Roads: 2016 to 2017
0.16%
4.15%
14.43%
3.85%
5.81%4.80%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Williamsburg Mkt Virginia Beach Norfolk/Portsmouth NewportNews/Hampton
Chesapeake/Suffolk Hampton Roads
Source: STR Trend Reports January 24, 2017, January 17, 2018, and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
47
4.9%3.9%
4.8%
3.0% 2.9%
4.9%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
USA Virginia Hampton Roads
REVENUE
REVPAR
Percent Change in Hotel Revenue and REVPAR 2016 to 2017
Source: STR Trend Reports January 24, 2017, January 17, 2018, and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
Source: Airdna (2018) market data adjusted by Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy. Excludes shared rooms
$0.42
$2.16
$5.88
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Millio
ns
of
Do
lla
rsMonthly Airbnb Revenue in Hampton Roads
2015-2017 (Millions of $)
2015 2016 2017
Monthly Revenue of All Airbnb Properties: Williamsburg Market, 2015-2017 (Millions of $)
Source: Airdna data received in January 2018 excluding shared rooms
$0.05 $0.08
$0.43
$0.26
$0.87
$0.52
$-
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
$0.70
$0.80
$0.90
$1.00
2015 2016 2017
The Port of Virginia: Strong Growth and Prospects for 2018
17.8318.84
21.97
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Millio
ns
of
Ton
sGeneral Cargo Tonnage
Port of Virginia, 2000-2017
Source: Virginia Port Authority and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
5.3%
1,348
2,128
1,745
2,224
2,841
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Tho
usa
nd
s o
f TE
Us
Twenty Foot Equivalent Container Units (TEUs)
Port of Virginia, 2000-2017 7.0%
Source: Virginia Port Authority and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
53
1,158 1,2011,307 1,341
1,4101,514
1,798
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Nu
mb
er
of
TEU
sAverage TEUs per Container Vessel Call
Port of Virginia, 2011-2017
Source: Virginia Port Authority and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
Performance of the Hampton Roads Economy:Year to Date March 2017 and Year to Date March 2018
54
YTD March 2017 YTD March 2018 Percentage Change
Civilian Labor Force 840,978 841,657 +0.08%
Employment 802,545 810,019 +0.93%
Unemployment 38,433 31,638 -17.68%
Unemployment Rate 4.57% 3.76% --
Civilian Nonfarm Payrolls 767,167 768,033 +0.11%
Taxable Sales $5.09 Billion $5.28 Billion +3.74%
Source: Multiple sources available upon request.
Performance of the Hampton Roads Economy:Year to Date March 2017 and Year to Date March 2018
55
Source: Multiple sources available upon request. **Data are for YTD April 2017 and YTD April 2018.
YTD March 2017 YTD March 2018 Percentage
Change
Hotel Revenue $131.32 Million $141.22 Million +7.54%
General Cargo Tonnage** 7.35 Million 7.39 Million +0.55%
TEU Containers** 906,236 910,772 +0.50%
Number of 1 Unit Housing Permits 1,209 1,100 -9.02%
Value of 1 Unit Housing Permits $270.74 Million $245.11 Million -9.47%
Number of Existing Homes Sold** 6,424 6,865 +6.86%
Distressed Sales as Percentage of Existing Homes Sold**
15.47% 12.34% --
Median Price of Existing Homes Sold** $206,000 $216,900 +5.29%
56
2017 Forecast 2017 Actual 2018 Forecast
Hampton Roads
Real Gross Domestic Product
Initial Forecast
1.4% -- 1.2%
Hampton Roads
Real Gross Domestic Product
Mid-year revision
0.9% -- 2.2%
Civilian Job Growth 0.5% 0.9% 0.5%
Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.2% 3.8%
Taxable Sales 2.6% 2.8% 3.0%
Hotel Revenue 4.4% 4.8% 3.9%
General Cargo Tonnage 2.7% 5.3% 2.7%
One Unit Housing Permit Value 2.6% 8.6% 2.4%
Source: 2017 data reflects the annual rate of growth. Dragas Center forecast current as of April 2018.
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