tyndall centre presentation: welsh carbon budget report

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1. University of Manchester June. 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info 2C Carbon Budgets for Wales a focus on energy-CO2 onlytwitter: @KevinClimate 2. Our headline conclusion: Avoiding dangerous climate change (stabilisation at 2C) remains a feasible goal of the international community just but the probabilities are no longer good 3. IPCC Synthesis Report Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond That is, the temperature increase by ~2100 (compared with the pre- industrial period) relates to the total quantity of carbon emitted since the industrial revolution. i.e. our emissions are constrained to reside within 2C carbon budgets 4. Numerically 5. range of carbon budgets for 2011-2100 range of probabilities to stay below 2C 6. Estimating energy-only CO2 budgets from 2015 to 2100 We need to note that: Since 2011, weve emitted about ~150GtCO2 (~15% of likely 2C budget) Deforestation & land-use change from 2015-2100 ~100GtCO2 Cement process emissions from 2015-2100 ~150GtCO2 i.e.: to subtract, at least 400GtCO2 from the energy budget from 2015 7. to stay below 2C 600 (66%) 900 (50%) 1100 (33%) i.e.: the budgets from 2015 -2100 for CO2 from energy only 2015 8. Considering poorer (non-Annex 1) nations: 1. Peak 2025; mitigate 10% p.a. from 2035 650 2. Peak 2025; mitigate 5% from 2035 900 3. Peak 2030; mitigate 5% from 2035 1200 GtCO2 (2015-2100) 1. 66% 50% 33% 2. 66% 50% 33% 3. 66% 50% 33% Consider these in relation to 2C budgets 9. Considering wealthier (Annex 1) nations: 1. Peak now; mitigate 5% p.a. from 2025 350 2. Peak now; mitigate 10% from 2025 220 3. Mitigate 10% p.a. from now 130 GtCO2 (2015-2100) 10. Put bluntly 66% chance of 2C is lost 50% chance demands a war-like footing on mitigation - Wealthier nations 10% p.a. within a few years - Poorer nations 10% p.a. by 2035 33% chance still demands mitigation rates far beyond anything countenanced before, at Bonn last week & probably at Paris in Nov. We have 25 years of explicitly choosing to fail on 2C (WGIII & IAMs?) But it is a choice! 11. Can this framing of 2C be reconciled with: To keep global average temperature rise close to 2C the UK [must] cut emissions by at least 80% the good news is that reductions of that size are possible without sacrificing the benefits of economic growth and rising prosperity. UK Committee on Climate Change To keep a good chance of staying below 2C, and at manageable costs, our emissions should drop by 40 to 70 percent globally between 2010 and 2050, falling to zero or below by 2100. ... mitigation costs would be so low that global economic growth would not be strongly affected IPCC Chair Nov. 2014 WGIII Co Chair Nov. 2014 12. Why does orthodox analysis give such different results? Probability of exceeding 2C is much higher (60-80%) i.e. bigger carbon budgets Inequitable apportionment of global emissions to Annex 1 Inappropriate assumptions on deforestation & cement Unfeasibly (Machiavellian?) early peak dates Geo-engineering is ubiquitous in low carbon scenarios 13. Systemic bias time travel & geo-engineering The UNEP Gap Report (basis for Welsh & UK Govt policy) contains: 163 scenarios for 50% or better chance of 2C; of these: - 140 peak CO2 in 2010 - 23 peak in 2020, all of which include geo-engineering So all require an ability to travel back in time or the large-scale uptake of highly speculative negative emission technologies Almost three quarters of the scenarios are dependent on both time travel and geo-engineering 14. From Global to Welsh budgets 15. A reminder of what Wales et al have committed to: to make our fair contribution to To hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius, and take action to meet this objective consistent with science and on the basis of equity Copenhagen Accord, 2009 16. Apportionment principles, rules, or guidelines Responsibility spread evenly across all nations (no equity concern) 1. Cumulative Population 2015-2100 2. Emissions share 2012 Responsibility greater for wealthier (Annex 1) nations (weak equity) 3. Non-Annex 1 peak CO2 in 2030 10% pa. mitigation by 2040 4. Non-Annex 1 peak CO2 in 2025 5% pa. thereafter remaining Annex 1 CO2 divided as in 1 & 2 above 17. CO2-energy budgets for Wales 2015-2011 Even for a 33% chance of 2C (i.e. a 67% of exceeding 2C), Wales has a budget range of 467 to 711 MtCO2 i.e. 11 to 18 years of current emissions 18. Why so different to the UK/CCC position? No geo-engineering Recognition its now 2015 Deforestation & Cement (process) accounted for Less inequitable apportionment of the global budget 19. Thank you University of Manchester June 2015 Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info twitter: @KevinClimate