the bangchak petroleum plc. - listed company

The Bangchak Petroleum Plc.

Analyst Meeting • May 22, 2008

Mr. Patiparn Sukorndhaman

Mr. Bandit Hunsapaiboon

1

2

Disclaimer

The information contained herein is being furnished on a confidential basis for

discussion purposes only and only for the use of the recipient, and may be subject

to completion or amendment through the delivery of additional documentation.

Except as otherwise provided herein, this document does not constitute an offer to

sell or purchase any security or engage in any transaction. The information

contained herein has been obtained from sources that The Bangchak Petroleum

Public Company Limited (“BCP”) considers to be reliable; however, BCP makes no

representation as to, and accepts no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or

completeness of the information contained herein. Any projections, valuations and

statistical analyses contained herein have been provided to assist the recipient in

the evaluation of the matters described herein; such projections, valuations and

analyses may be based on subjective assessments and assumptions and may

utilize one among alternative methodologies that produce differing results;

accordingly, such projections, valuations and statistical analyses are not to be

viewed as facts and should not be relied upon as an accurate representation of

future events. The recipient should make an independent evaluation and judgment

with respect to the matters contained herein.

3

Bangchak Bio Fuel (BBF)

Performance 1Q2008

Contents

► Refinery Business� Marketing

PQI Progress

Events and Activities

Oil Situation

4

Performance Performance 11QQ20082008

5

Factors Effect to 1Q2008 Performance

Unfavorable

• Product crack spread

•Oil price hike

•Crude selection

• Pattani crude price formula

•Higher capacity utilization

• Fuel oil export market

(Volume + Price formula)

• FX hedging (Sell / Buy)

•Marketing margin squeeze

• Plant shutdown

• FX appreciation

Favorable

Drive to

MAX. GRM

6(25)

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

-

J F M A M J J A S O N D

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


-

20

40

60

80

100

120


-

5

10

15

20

25

30


USD/Bbl

Singapore’s Oil Price Movement

Y2007

Y2008

Dubai 95/Dubai

GO/Dubai FO/Dubai

USD/Bbl USD/Bbl

USD/Bbl

AVG.1Q08=91.09

AVG.1Q07=55.43

AVG.FY07=68.41AVG.1Q08=13.70

AVG.1Q07=12.92

AVG.FY07=14.55

AVG.1Q08=22.84

AVG.1Q07=14.54

AVG.FY07=16.72

AVG.1Q08=(17.10)

AVG.1Q07=(10.40)

AVG.FY07=(10.40)

7

Refinery : Record Breaking GRM 1Q1Q

2008 2007

M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL

EBITDA +1,457 +86

� Base GRM 924 5.15 571 3.39

� GRM Hedging 91 0.51 71 0.42

� Inventory Gain / (Loss) 810 4.51 (352) (2.09)

� Inventory Write Down - - +55 0.33

Total GRM 1,824 10.17 345 2.05

� Other Income 12 0.07 14 0.08

� Expenses (379) (2.11) (273) (1.62)

� Adjusted EBITDA +647 +383

Crude Run (KBD) 61 52

3.815.66

$/Bbl 1Q,08 1Q,07

95/DB 13.70 12.92

GO/DB 22.84 14.54

FO/DB (17.10) (10.40) * *

*GRM base on calculation by crude run

8

Refinery : Record Breaking GRM

Total GRMTotal GRM

1010..1717 $/Bbl$/Bbl

4.51

0.51

5.15

Inventory GainGRM Hedging

Base GRM

4Q07 83.39

1Q08 91.09

1Q07 55.4364.3%

9.3%

AVG. Dubai PriceAVG. Dubai Price

•Kerosene-Dubai

•Gasoil-Dubai

• Fuel oil-Dubai

• Local crude selection

• Pattani crude price link

• Fuel oil export price formula

• Gas oil crack spread

CommoditiesCommoditiesMain ContributionMain Contribution

9

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Capacity (KBD)

Plant no. 2 40

Plant no. 3 80

Refinery : Up to Nameplate Trial Run

Total 120

KBD

•Annual Turnaround Plant both plant 2 & 3

• Tie-in PQI’s Facilities

• Maximum Capacity Readiness Taskforce (MCRT)

2007 Actual2008 Actual 2008 Plan

Turnaround Period

Jan 25 - Feb 18, 2008

Feb 04 - Mar 07, 2008

For

Avg. 1Q08 = 61 KBDAvg. 1Q07 = 53 KBD

Total shutdown ~ 15 days

Avg. 2008 = ~73 KBDAvg. 2007 = 66 KBD

10

86

1,507 1,457

383480

647

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

1Q07 4Q07 1Q08

EBITDA Adjusted EBITDA

Refinery : Performance is in Better Shape

0

20

40

60

80

100

2004 2005 2006 2007 1Q08

0

1

2

3

4

5

6Crude Intake Base GRM

EBITDA of Refinery

EBITDA of Refinery

GRM ($/Bbl)

Million Baht

c

Crude Intake & GRM

Crude Intake & GRM Crude Intake (KBD)

Less Fuel oil

demand from EGAT

Co-cracking with Thaioil

FO pricesubstantial reduction

Export Fuel oil to China

RecordBreakingOil Spred

EBITDA

+ 1,594% YoY- 3.3% QoQ

Adjusted EBITDA

+ 68.9% YoY+ 34.8% QoQ

AVG. Dubai Price ($/Bbl)

33.63

49.36

61.4868.41

91.09

*

*Not included GRM from improvement program & hedging

11(2)

(1)

1

2

3

4

Jan Apr Jul Oct

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Marketing : Gasoil Price & MKMGasoil Price

HSD

Maketing Margin

U$/Bbl

Baht/Liter

20072008

20072008

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

12(2)

(1)

1

2

3

4

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Marketing : UNL95 Price & MKM

20072008

20072008

UNL95l Price

ULG95

Maketing Margin

U$/Bbl

Baht/Liter

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

13

Marketing : Performance Low from Oil Price1Q1Q

2008 2007

M.Baht St./L. M.Baht St./L.

EBITDA +102 +191

� Retail Margin 135 23 200 39

� Industrial Margin 84 43 77 33

� Lube Margin 38 969 20 598

Total MKM 257 29 297 40

� Other Income 136 17 121 16

� Operating Expenses (291) (37) (227) (30)

� Sale Volume KBD ML/MO KBD ML/MO

- Retail Vol. 40 194 36 172

- Industrial Vol. 14 65 17 80

Total 54 259 53 252

3728

14

3232..6 6 %%

16.0 %17.3 %

1212..7 7 %%

88..4 4 %%

OthersOthers

1313..0 0 %%

3434..8 8 %%

15.4 %16.0 %

1313..5 5 %%

77..9 9 %%

OthersOthers

1212..4 4 %%

Y2007

Source : DOEB, MOE

Market Share increased from 12.7% to 13.5%

4thRank1Q08

15

Market Share through Service Station by Geography

22.6%34.1% 39.1% 44.7% 47.8%

18.0%

13.6%13.8%

11.9%19.1%

23.3% 12.8%11.6%

12.1%

15.1%13.5%

13.7%16.1%

16.7%

6.0%7.1% 11.7% 3.9%

2.8%7.3%10.3% 7.1% 6.3%

6.9%4.7%5.2% 6.9% 9.3% 5.0%

BKK Central North NE South

OTHERS

CALTX

JET

BCP

ESSO

SHELL

PTT

30.9%

24 2 25

BKK & Metropolitan

CentralArea

NorthernArea

NortheastArea

SouthernArea

23.4% 17.3% 15.5% 12.9%

For For 11Q, Q, 20082008

AREAAREA

ConsumptionConsumption

16

Marketing Business : Sales Breakdown for 1Q08

Sales Volume of Marketing Business(Million Liters / Month)

17

Highlight of Marketing Achievement in 1Q08

Increase No. of Service Station

Ref : Channel serv ice station for 1Q 2008

Increase biodiesel(B5) portion

50

379

710

873

Dec’06

Mar’07

Dec’07

Apr’08

1st rank market share

BIODIESEL B5

BCP 59.3%

58%42%

26%

74%

FY2007 1Q 2008

Increase No. of Service Station

Ref : Channel serv ice station for 1Q 2008

Increase gasohol 91(GSH91) portion

249

282

497

589

Dec’06

Mar’07

Dec’07

Apr’08

1st rank market share

GASOHOL 91

BCP 47.0%

FY2007 1Q 2008

B5 Diesel Normal Grade

50%50%

31%

69%

GSH91 Gasoline 91 Normal Grade

18

Sales & Thruput through Service Station

Sales by Type Thruput by Type

“Bio fuel drive sales continue increase esp. COCO & CO-OP”

334.1

286.0

240.1 229.2 221.8

210.6

102.8 86.3 78.5

0

100

200

300

400

COCO Dealer+JV CO-OP

KL./Station/MO

Y2006 Y2007 1Q08

169.8 178.7 194.2Total

ML./MO

19

1Q2008

EBITDA 1,559 277 +462.8%

� Depreciation & Amortization (203) (205) -1.0%

� Net Interest Expense (114) (112) +1.8%

� FX-Other Gain (Loss) (45) (40) +12.5%

� Impairment Adjustment - - -

� � � � Profit / (Loss) before Tax 1,197 (80) +1,596.3%

� Tax (356) 26 +1,469.2%

Net Profit (Loss) 841 (54) +1,657.4%

- INVENTORY GAIN / (LOSS) 810 (297) +372.7%

Adjusted EBITDA 749 574 +30.5%

Company Performance 1Q2008: Million Baht

1Q2007 YoY

20

0 %2 0 %4 0 %6 0 %8 0 %1 0 0 % 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 1 Q 0 8 Re f in e r y Bu s in e s sM K B u s in e s s0 %2 0 %4 0 %6 0 %8 0 %1 0 0 % 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 1 Q 0 8 Re f in e r y Bu s in e s sM K B u s in e s sPerformance Ratio Between Business Unit in term of EBITDA

1,613 3,977

2,323 2,120

1,559

749

EBITDA (MBt.)

Adjusted EBITDA (MBt.)

21

PQI Progress PQI Progress

As of Apr’As of Apr’0808 8585..88%%

22

Equipments Installation

As of May,08

Equipment Delivery and Erection Status

Static Rotating Total %

Arrived

- at storage 119 56 175 32%

- Erected 222 145 367 66%

Total Arrive 341 201 542 98%

Not Arrive

- Shipping 1 3 4 1%

- at shop 3 6 9 1%

Total not Arrive 4 9 13 2%

Total 345 210 555 100%

23

Bangchak Bio Fuel (BBF) Bangchak Bio Fuel (BBF)

24

Summary : Bio Diesel Project

Set up new company Bangchak Bio Fuel Co., Ltd.

Plant Capacity 0.30 ML per day (Continuous Process)

Project Cost 1,018 Million Baht (Project Finance)

D/E Gearing 2.3:1, Loan 710 MB : Equity 308 MB

Shareholder Structure BCP 70% :UAC 30%

Related Contract

ContractorLender

Feed Stock Product Off-take

TRC ConstructionKTB

60% Secured60% Secured (BCP)

Location Bang-pa-in

Construction Period 15 Months (Apr’08 - Jun’09)

Chaopraya River

Railway

High way

#3442

Express way

Biodiesel Biodiesel ComplexComplex

IRR > 25%

25

Summary : Bio Diesel Project

BenefitsBenefits

1. Located within Diesel Demand Center (70%

of total demand).2. Adjacent to BPI and FPT terminals and close

to major oil terminal (Thappline).

3. Share facilities with BPI terminal.

FPTBang-Pa-InOil Terminal(BPI)

Site Area

CPOCPO

Others Oil Others Oil CompanyCompany

BiodieselBiodiesel

GlycerineGlycerine

306 306 Ton/DayTon/Day

300300,,000 000 Liter/DayLiter/Day



Met-OH

6060%%

4040%%

BB100 100 = = 00..9797CPOCPO + + 00..1515 MetOHMetOH + + 33..3232

26

OPEC

Oil Situation Oil Situation

27

4550556065707580859095100105110115120125130135140145150155160165

GO 0.5%S

UNL 95

Dubai

?

$/BBL

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D’07 ‘08

120.25

161.79

132.20

how is the oil price 2008

Oil Price Situation @May 20’ 2008

28

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

USD/BBL

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Dubai Price Movement 1998 - 2008

OPEC Cartel to cut 4 series quota production at total 4.3 MBD 911

US attack Iraq

• Hedge Fund Buying

•Nigeria Concern

• Hedge Fund Buying•Norway/Nigeria Concern

Hurricane

Politic Tension/Supply Glitch/

Rising Demand (China & India) / Hedge Fund

29

Possible to reach 200 $/BBL??!!

How High Could Oil Prices Go ?

30

Oil Price Movement Factors

- World Oil Demand - Crude/Product Inventory

- World Oil Supply - Extreme Weather

- New / Expanded Refineries - Refining Capacity Constraints

- Speculator / Hedge Fund - Geopolitical Risk

- US. Dollar - Oil Production Costs(Currency Impact on OPEC Basket Price)

31

World Oil Supply/Demand

Unit : MBD 2007 2008(F)

World DemandOECD DemandNon-OECD Demand

86.049.136.9

87.248.938.3

Non-OPECCall on OPEC Inc. NGLOPEC Production Inc. NGL

50.235.835.5

50.536.737.2 ?

World Supply 85.7 87.7 ?

Implied Stockbuild -0.3 +0.5

Source : IEA @Apr Source : IEA @Apr 20082008

Revised demand downward consecutive month since

the beginning of the year From 2 to 1.2 MBD as of April

report

32

World Oil Demand

-180

-370

240

North America

Latin America

190230

270 Africa

-20

110130

Middle East300

370

250

4090

-340

Europe

170

6040

FSU

480

770

520

Asia

Global Demand GrowthGlobal Demand Growth@ May @ May 20082008(MBD)(MBD)

2006 02006 0..98 198 1..22%%

20072007 00..90 190 1..11%%20082008 11..03 103 1..22%%

Global Demand Growth 2006/2007/2008Thousand barrels per day

Source : IEA @Apr Source : IEA @Apr 20082008

33

Limited Supply from OPEC and Non- OPEC

Both OPEC and Non-OPEC Supply Struggling To Glow

34

Global Oil Production and Refining Capacity

Source : IEA, DOE, and Goldman Sachs Commodities ResearchSource : IEA, DOE, and Goldman Sachs Commodities Research

Exhausted Spare Capacity

Global OutputGlobal Output

Global Production Global Production CapacityCapacity Global Refining Global Refining

CapacityCapacity

World Petroleum World Petroleum SupplySupply

World Petroleum World Petroleum DemandDemand

Global Oil Production and CapacityGlobal Oil Production and Capacity Global Refining CapacityGlobal Refining Capacity

65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05

MBDMBD

Year Year

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

35

Refinery Capacity Expansions

Source : JBC Energy @Apr Source : JBC Energy @Apr 20082008

36

Speculators Effect (NYMEX Crude Futures & Options)

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180Future & Options

WTI

$/B$/BBLBLMBMB

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N DJ F M A M J J A S O N D

’’0707 ‘‘0808

Long 139 MB (-2 MB)

at 13/05/08

37

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

135

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

1.50

1.55

1.60

1.65WTI

FX : EUR/US$

EUREUR /US$US$US$/BBLUS$/BBL

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N DJ F M A M J J A S O N D

’’0707 ‘‘0808

WTI & EUR/US$ Movement

38

USA. Stocks

All USA. Oil stock level are moving in comfortable level

39

Where are Oil Price Headed

•• While demand remains buoyant, little chance to build While demand remains buoyant, little chance to build sufficient spare capacitysufficient spare capacity

•• Demand destruction has only been apparent in poorer Demand destruction has only been apparent in poorer countriescountries

•• US, Global slowdown may well curtail US, Global slowdown may well curtail 20082008//2009 2009 demand demand growthgrowth

•• Prices will remain extremely volatilePrices will remain extremely volatile

•• Weak dollar will be a key factor in determining ‘headline’ Weak dollar will be a key factor in determining ‘headline’ price.price.

•• Technology will play an increasingly important roleTechnology will play an increasingly important role

•• NGLs, alternative energy to grow.NGLs, alternative energy to grow.

Oil will never be “cheap” again

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

160

165GO 0.5%S

UNL 95

Dubai

$/BBL

2008 Price Forecast @May 20’ 2008

Avg. Crack 2007

95/DB = 14.49G.O./DB = 16.63

Dubai Price = 95 - 105

UNL 95 Crack= 12 - 14

G.O. 0.5%S Crack = 24 - 26

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D’07 ‘08

120.25

161.79

132.20

41

Event & ActivitiesEvent & Activities

42

Marketing Promotion

ForFor GE SeriesGE Series && DD3 3 SeriesSeries from now tofrom now to July July 3131, , 20082008

GE Gold SM (100% Real Synthetic Technology) get free “JABRA By I-MOBILE BluetoothHeadset value of Baht 1,290”

D3 Gold (100% Real Synthetic Technology) get free “digital weighing apparatus value of Baht 1,100”

GE Silver or D3 Turbo Plus get free “beach chair value of Baht 600”

GE Plus or D3 Pick Up Plus get free “picnic chair” value of Baht 200”

43

Marketing Promotion

44

Cooperative with Tourism Authority of Thailand, when spending at any BCP’s service station the customers will get discount for an exchange the book “108 BCEFGHIIJKLM” at Baht 170 (normal price Baht 250). This champagne launch during April 1 - June 30, 2008

Marketing Promotion

45

CSR

March 31, 2008 opening ceremony for 33rdrd Youth Summer Camp with BCPYouth Summer Camp with BCP

46

Adjust UCO Buying Price to 20 Baht/Liter

10101212

1313

14141616

47

IR Activities

AGM AGM 20082008AGM AGM 20082008

48

IR Activities

Money Expo Money Expo 20082008Money Expo Money Expo 20082008

49

Company Visit

For this year will be held on For this year will be held on July July 1111, , 20082008

Thank YouThank You

For more informationFor more information

www.bangchak.co.thwww.bangchak.co.thEmail : [email protected] : [email protected]

the bangchak petroleum plc. - listed company

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