the bangchak petroleum plc. - listed...
TRANSCRIPT
The Bangchak Petroleum Plc.
Mr. Vichien Usanachote SEVP-Refinery Business
Mr. Surachai Kositsareewong EVP-Accounting &Finance
Opportunity Day for Y2010 performance • March 7, 2011
Contents
BCP Performance in 2010
BCP on the move in 2011
BCP Achievements in 2010
Refining Highlight 2010
Crude Selection
Advantages of using local crude
Low Sulfur
Low Transportation Cost
Minimum Inventory day
Y2009 Y2010
34%
13%
35%
50%
11%14%
17% 22%
3% 1%
Product Yield
LPG
MOGAS
JET
DIESEL
FUEL OIL
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Y2009 Y2010
79.2
86.0
KBDCrude Run
Local Crude
61%
Far East39%
Natural Gas
Cogeneration Power Plant
EURO IV Project
3
2.63 2.75
1 2
MKM ($/BBL)
Y2009 Y2010
+5%
GRM Performance 2010
12.76
6.09
2.16
2.15
1 2
Accounting GIM($/Bbl)
Total GRM Contribution MKM
Y2010
8.24 $/Bbl
Accounting GIM ($/BBL)
12.76
6.09
2.16
2.15
1 2
Accounting GIM($/Bbl)
Total GRM Contribution MKM
Better Margin Year
Crude Run increased
Less production of Fuel Oil and higher
production in diesel.
Better products crack spread
3.98 5.63
1 2
Base GRM ($/BBL)
5.62
0.03
1 2
GRM Hedging ($/BBL)
3.16 0.43
1 2
Inventory G (L) ($/BBL)
4
2.4%
12.4%
-1.0%
6.8%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%BCP Industry
2009 20102009 2010
2009 2010
56.6
63.6
2010
ML/MO Mkt Share
PTT 508.0 37.0%
ESSO 239.8 17.4%
BCP 189.4 13.8%
SHELL 179.9 13.1%
CALTEX 91.4 6.7%
OTHERS 166.0 12.1%
1,374.5
1
3
2
4
Marketing Highlight 2010
Retail Market Share moved up to 3rd rank
JET
Sales Vol. (ML/MO)
+12.4%
300 Stations
5 Stations
139 Stations
2 Stations
MOGAS JET
Sales Vol. Growth in 2010
5
2009 2010
1.46
1.74
Lube: Growing Export Market
Lube+19.2%
Sales Vol. (ML/MO)
Sales Vol. Growth in 2010
19.3%
6.9%
0.0%
3.0%
6.0%
9.0%
12.0%
15.0%
18.0%
21.0%
BCP Industry
China
Burma
Cambodia
6
Marketing Rebranding
139 stations were rebranded
Co-Op
Standard station
70 stations were rebranded
7
Inthanin Coffee
Inthanin Premio @ CTW
Inthanin @ Faculty of Architecture
and Planning, TU
Inthanin @ Faculty of
Engineering, CU
Inthanin @ Faculty of
Science, CU
8
95.3
97.8
98.4
97.4
98.898.5
99.2 99 99.2 99.1
97.8
98.8
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Yield 2010
Bangchak Bio Fuel
53.3
63.3
84.4
43.3
77.885.4
108.6
38.2
102
75.7
57
90.6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Utilization 2010% Utilization% Yield
AVG 98.3%
AVG 73.3%
Revenue : 2,474 MB
EBITDA : 341 MB
Net Profit : 252 MB
9
Solar Farm : Phase I
Phase I : 38 MW
Project Cost ~ 4,200 MTHB
Work Progress 30%
COD : Q4/2011
Expected EBITDA +700 MTHB/Year
10
The Asset Corporate
Titanium AwardPlatt's Global Energy
Awards
Readers Digest
Trusted Brand 2010
Top CG Awards
Best CSR Awards Thailand Quality Class
Other Events & Activities
in 2010
Awards
TRIS Rating
11
BCP Performance in 2010
Profit and Loss Highlights 2010
4Q10 2010 2009
Sale Revenue 35,661 134,638 107,678
EBITDA 1,988 5,827 12,244
Refinery business 1,767 4,466 10,839
Marketing business 221 1,361 1,405
Depreciation & Amortization (510) (1,820) (999)
Other FX and Impairment 172 495 (93)
Financial Cost (221) (862) (512)
Pre-tax Profit 1,429 3,640 10,640
Tax (439) (992) (3,165)
Net Profit 990 2,648 7,475
EPS 0.85 2.26 6.53
Unit : Million Baht
13
4Q10 2010 2009
M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL
Base GRM 1,581 6.40 5,631 5.63 4,016 3.98
GRM Hedging -189 -0.77 28 0.03 5,631 5.62
Inventory Gain/(Loss) 662 2.68 434 0.43 2,221 2.22
Write Down (LCM) - - - - 942 0.94
Total GRM 2,054 8.32 6,093 6.09 12,810 12.76
Other Income 421 1.70 544 0.54 49 0.05
Operating Expenses (708) (2.87) (2,171) (2.17) (2,020) (2.02)
EBITDA 1,767 7.15 4,466 4.46 10,839 10.79
Key factors
Crude Run (KBD) 89.1 86.0 79.2
Exchange rate (฿/$) 30.1 31.9 34.6
DB ($/Bbl) 84.31 78.04 61.82
Refinery BU Performance
14
Key factors
Crude Run (KBD) 89.1 86.0 79.2
Exchange rate (฿/$) 30.1 31.9 34.6
DB ($/Bbl) 84.3 78.0 61.8
4Q10 2010 2009
M.Baht ฿/L M.Baht ฿/L M.Baht ฿/L
Net Retail Margin 468 0.77 1,851 0.77 1,840 0.79
Net Industrial Margin 96 0.25 297 0.20 176 0.15
Total MKM 564 0.57 2,148 0.55 2,016 0.57
Other Income 206 0.21 833 0.21 860 0.24
Operating Expenses (549) (0.55) (1,620) (0.42) (1,471) (0.42)
EBITDA 221 0.22 1,361 0.35 1,405 0.39
2.98 $/bbl 2.75 $/bbl 2.63 $/bbl
Marketing BU performance
Sale Volume (ML/Mo) 333 324 295
o Retail 203 201 195
o Industrial 129 123 100
15
Assets Dec 31, 2010 Dec 31, 2009 Liabilities Dec 31, 2010 Dec 31, 2009
Cash 8,504 1,711 Short Term Loan + Due 1 Yr 2,587 1,687
Trade Accounts Receivable 6,314 5,501 Trade Accounts Payable 10,094 6,023
Inventories 14,588 13,625 Other Current Liabilities 4,498 4,911
Other Current Assets 2,104 1,943 Long Term Loan 16,441 13,568
Current Assets 31,510 22,780 Other Non current Liabilities 869 880
Total Liabilities 34,489 27,069
Shareholders' Equity
Investment in Subsidiary 198 198 Common Share 1,177 1,170
PPE 27,073 27,711 Premium on Share Capital 8,462 8,369
Leasehold Right 954 1,025 Revalue Asset 4,108 4,477
Other Non-Current Assets 1,445 1,187 Retain Earning 12,944 11,816
Total Equity 26,691 25,832
Total Assets 61,180 52,901 Total Liabilities & Equity 61,180 52,901
Financial Position 2010
Unit : Million Baht
16
72% 70%
22% 21%
6% 9%
EBITDA NET PROFIT
Biodiesel (B100)
Marketing & service station
Refinery business
Financial Measurement 2010
PROFIT RETURN RATIO (For 2010)
Net Profit Margin % 1.97
Earning per Share Baht 2.26
Return on Equity-ROE % 10.09
Return on Assets-ROA % 4.64
FINANCIAL POSITION RATIO (As at 31 Dec 10)
Current Ratio times 1.83
AR Day days 16.1
DSCR* (net CAPEX) times 2.29
D/E Ratio times 0.71
Net debt to EBITDA* times 1.95
Book Value per Share (BV) Baht 22.68
*EBITDA excluded inventory effect for 12 months backward
72% 70%
22% 21%
6% 9%
EBITDA NET PROFIT
Biodiesel (B100)
Marketing & service station
Refinery business
Net Profit
2,889 MBTotal EBITDA
6,165 MB
Revenue Growth 25%
21% - Oil price increased
4% - Sales volume increased
17
Unit : MB 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY %
SALE 529 523 586 836 2,474 100%
COGS (455) (454) (497) (663) (2,069) -83.6%
GROSS PROFIT MARGIN 73 69 89 174 405 16.4%
OPEX (14) (15) (16) (19) (64) -2.6%
EBITDA 59 54 73 155 341 13.8%
DEPRE (11) (11) (12) (11) (45) -1.8%
INTEREST (9) (9) (9) (8) (36) -1.5%
Corporate Tax (6) -0.2%
NET PROFIT 38 33 52 129 252 10.2%
Bangchak Bio Fuel Performance 2010
Accounted for approx. 9%
of BCP group
817
255
231
166
Chart Title
Cash
Inventory
Other Assets
PP&E
545
149
475
186
115
Chart Title
S/T Debt
Trade A/P
L/T Debt
Other Liabilities
Equity
Balance Sheet
Profit & Loss
18
Refinery Performance 2010
61 67
811
1
12217
Performance 2010
Oil Market OutlookRefinery Business Plan
2011
2009 2010
86
79
KBD$/BBL
2009 2010
5.63
3.98
KBD
2009 2010
9692
Domestic and Export Sale Volume
M.7
PTT
Own Market
GRMIncrease Utilization Rate
Performance 2010 Global Oil Market
Export
20
Run High Margin Feedstock
Oil Market OutlookRefinery Business Plan
2011
New/Opportunity Crude
3.5
New/Opportunity Crude
4.1
Performance 2010 Global Oil Market
Other Import
9.3
Onshore
7.8
Offshore
9.0
Other Import
9.9
Onshore
7.6
Offshore
10.1
21
Gas Oil EURO IV
Gas Oil EURO IV Incentives
Incentive 24 st./L
@ 190 ML/Month ~ 550 M Baht/Year
2010 2011 2012++
GAS OIL
EURO IV
EURO IV becomes fully effective from 1 Jan
2012
Oil Market OutlookRefinery Business Plan
2011Performance 2010 Global Oil Market
2011:
@ 210 ML/Month
~ 605 M Baht/Year
22
Energy Saving
NG Usage for Cogeneration and Plant Fuel
Boiler & T/G
Electricity 5.9 MW
Cogeneration (PTT)
Before After
Fuel oil, Fuel Gas
NG
Total Saving Cost: 380 M Baht Security in power supply Lower emission
Oil Market OutlookRefinery Business Plan
2011
Stream 150 T/hr. + Electricity 17.3 MW
MEA
Electricity 2.9 MW
Stream 46.7 T/hr. + Electricity 14.6 MW
MEA
T/G : Turbine Gas
Boiler & T/G
Fuel oil, Fuel Gas
Stream 53.8 T/hr. + Electricity 5.7 MW
Performance 2010 Global Oil Market
Fuel oil, LPG
NG
Plant Fuel
Plant Fuel
23
Global Oil Market
Prices Movement
Oil Market OutlookRefinery Business Plan
2011
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2009 2010 2011
Dubai
Brent
WTI
• 2Q10 earnings beat analyst estimation
• Weak US dollar on speculation of QE2 appealed commodities such as oil
• China’s decelerated economy• Concern over U.S. economic recovery
• QE2
• Winter demand
• Arab states unrest
• Greece debt concerns
Performance 2010 Global Oil Market
25
UNL 95-Dubai
Gas Oil-Dubai
Fuel Oil-Dubai
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
20102009
Prices Movement
Oil Market OutlookRefinery Business Plan
2011
Open western arbitrage from Asia Strike in France resulted in 1.2 MBD of supply disruption
Higher demand from China for Asian games Peak diesel import from China to meet its domestic policy of power supply cut drove Asian market
Abundant of supply due to higher western arbitrage inflow
$/BBL
$/BBL
$/BBL
Performance 2010 Global Oil Market
8.45
12.54
9.298.60
10.70 10.31
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
7.21
8.86
11.2512.43 13.02
11.49
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
-4.69
-3.10
-6.73
-4.82
-8.18
-5.73
-10.00
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
201026
Contents
BCP Performance in 2010
BCP on the move in 2011
BCP Achievements in 2010
Oil Market Outlook
Macroeconomics Outlook
Global Oil Market Performance 2010 Oil Market OutlookRefinery Business Plan
2011
Global economy is continuing to grow this year but decelerated in China, and India with slow growth of developed countries.
Source : IMF, Jan 2011
The worst is over Economy is moderate recovery
2.8
-0.6
54.4 4.5
0.0
-2.6
2.8 3.0 2.7
0.5
-4.1
1.8 1.5 1.7
-1.2
-6.3
4.3
1.6 1.8
9.6 9.2
10.39.6 9.5
6.4 5.7
9.7
8.4 8
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
World
US
EU
Japan
China
India
World GDP Growth Outlook (%YoY)
29
Demand
North America
Latin AmericaAfrica
Middle East
2009
2010
2011
FSU
Europe
Asia
Source : IEA, Feb 2011
Yearly demand rise will be driven by emerging countries such as China and Middle East, while OECD countries will still see their year-on-year consumption declining in 2011.
*Include Biofuel Demand
-879
618
85
-1
278 204
-888-90 -27
215 267 238
6 45 105
-228
278 123
619 7281444
Global Oil Market Performance 2010 Oil Market OutlookRefinery Business Plan
2011
Global Oil Demand* 2009-2011 (MBD)
82
84
86
88
90
2009 2010 2011
+2.84, 3.3%
+1.46, 1.7%
85.087.8
89.3
30
Supply
UAE, 0.3
Nigeria, 0.3
Kuwait, 0.2
Others, 0.8
50.9 50.9 51.7 52.8 53.5
4.3 4.4 4.8 5.3 5.8
30.3 31.2 28.7 29.2
86.7 85.9 85.087.8 89.3
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Wor
ld O
il Bala
nce (
MBD) OPEC Supply
OPEC NGLs
Non-OPEC Supply
Call on
OPEC 29.9
MBD
• Non-OPEC supply increases by 700 KBD in 2011 and the uptick in non-OPEC supply is driven by China, Brazil, Columbia, the FSU and global biofuels.
• The call on OPEC crude for 2011 was increased to 29.9 MBD due to growth in demand.• OPEC effective spare capacity stands at 5.4 MBD. Mainly spare capacity is from Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia
3.8
Source : IEA, Feb 2011
Spare Production Capacity (MBD)World Oil Balance (Demand/Supply)
Global Oil Market Performance 2010 Oil Market OutlookRefinery Business Plan
2011
31
Key Factors
High inflation and
asset price bubble risk
in China may make
Chinese policy maker
raises interest rate and
reserve ratio
More QE policy
would cause weak
dollar leading money
flows to
Commodities
Uprising around oil
producers
may cause oil disruption
World GDP Growth leads by
Asian Countries, China (9.6%)
and India (8.4%)
Key Factors
Political Tension
Quantitative
Easing (QE)
Global Economic Recovery
Bubble Risk in China
Global Oil Market Performance 2010 Oil Market OutlookRefinery Business Plan
2011
32
Key Factors
Global Oil Market Performance 2010 Oil Market OutlookRefinery Business Plan
2011
Political Tension
33
Key Factors
LIBYA’S OIL AND GAS RESOURCES
Libya, a member of OPEC, holds the largest proven oil reserves in Africa – 44 billion barrels of oil and slightly over 54 trillion cubic feet of natural gas
There is still the uncertainty about how much the unrest in Africa and Middle East will spread
and how long Libya’s oil will be shut off.
Global Oil Market Performance 2010 Oil Market OutlookRefinery Business Plan
2011
Political Tension
Source : Thomson Reuters
MBD
0.2
0.7
1.2
1.7
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0.8 MBD
1.6 MBD
LIBYA’S OIL EXPORT AND OUTPUT
Europe,
79%
China,
10%
U.S., 5% Other, 6%
34
Refining Margins
4Q10 2011
2011 Singapore Cracked Margin Outlook ($/BBL)
We estimate Singapore crack margin will recover from 2011 onwards
Topping Margin
Cracking Margin
Global Oil Market Performance 2010 Oil Market OutlookRefinery Business Plan
2011
35
Refinery Business Plan 2011
Refinery Business Plan 2011
Refinery Capacity Utilization Plan 2011 (KBD)
93 KBD
81 KBD
Feb
6 KBD
Mar
Jan
Global Oil Market Performance 2010 Oil Market OutlookRefinery Business Plan
2011
• Longer period with higher GRM after maintenance• Rich middle distillate yield after maintenance• Increase high TAN crudes intake• Improvement energy savings program phase I
37
+ 7%
New Hydrocracker’s Catalyst
Complex RefineryOld Hydrocracker’s
Catalyst
Complex RefineryNew Hydrocracker’s
Catalyst
PRODUCT YIELD
GRM +1.00 $/BBL
Global Oil Market Performance 2010 Oil Market OutlookRefinery Business Plan
2011
- 2%
- 5%Light
Distillates
28%
Light
Distillates
23%
Jet 8% Jet 15%
Diesel
52%Diesel
50%
Fuel Oil
12%
Fuel Oil
12%
38
BCP as a group
BCP as a group
Natural Resources
ASEAN Potash Mining
(APMC) : 16.4%
Clean Electricity
Bangchak Solar Energy
(BSE) : 100%
Biofuel
Bangchak Biofuel
(BBF) : 70%Ubon Bio Ethanol
(UBE) : 21.3%
The Bangchak Petroleum Plc.
Retail Management & Logistic
Bangchak Greennet
(BGN) : 49%Fuel Pipeline Transportation
(FPT) : 11.4%
Refinery & Retail Marketing Business
40
MK Business
Aims to be 2nd Market Share
200 Stations
10 Stations
41
300,000
360,000
1 2
BBF : Debottlenecking Project
Production Capacity (Ltr/Day)
42
Starch : 600 T/day
Cassava Farm : 10,000 Rai
Investment THB 750 million
in Ethanol Project
Ubon Agricultural Energy (UAE)
Ubon Bio Gas(UBG)
100% 100%
Ethanol: 400,000 Ltr/Day
COD : Jun 2012
Ubon Bio Ethanol (UBE)
Biogas : 72,000 m3/day
Power Plant : 1.9 MW
21.3% 21.3% 57.4%
Existing
Shareholder
43
Bangchak Solar Energy
Phase III
Phase II
Phase I
Capacity 38 MWProject cost : 4,200 MB EBITDA : 700 MB/YCOD : Q4/2011
Capacity 32 MWProject cost : 3,600 MB EBITDA : 600 MB/YCOD : Q4/2012
Capacity 48 MWProject cost : 5,400 MB EBITDA : 900 MB/YCOD : Q4/2013
700 MB
1,300 MB
2,200 MB
EBITDA/Yr
TOTAL/Yr+ Secure PPA 120 MW with EGAT and PEA
+ Adder of Solar-electricity 8 Baht/Kwh, 10 years long
+ BOI Tax Privilege
44
Potash mining
BCP Introduce “Solution Mining”
Environment friendly technology
Gain public acceptance
“Conventional Mining”
“Solution Mining”
45
Palm Plantation
Located 65 km from BBF
46
Algae
Next Generation Biofuel
4 times higher yield than Palm oil with in-sight viable economic return
$/BBL Production cost Refining Cost Total Cost
Crude Oil (Marginal Barrel)
80+
(Deep Water)
8 88+
Palm Oil 120+
(Palm 4 B/kg)
20 140+
Algae Oil 90 -100
(MBA Australia)
20 110-120Just HSD, JP-1 Ready to Commercial
Must handle other production i.e. Fuel Oil
47
Contents
[email protected] Tel. 02 335 4580
www.bangchak.co.th
click Investor Relations
Disclaimer : The information contained herein is being furnished on a confidential basis for discussion purposes only and only for the use
of the recipient, and may be subject to completion or amendment through the delivery of additional documentation. Except as otherwise
provided herein, this document does not constitute an offer to sell or purchase any security or engage in any transaction. The information
contained herein has been obtained from sources that The Bangchak Petroleum Public Company Limited (“BCP”) considers to be reliable;
however, BCP makes no representation as to, and accepts no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information
contained herein. Any projections, valuations and statistical analyses contained herein have been provided to assist the recipient in the
evaluation of the matters described herein; such projections, valuations and analyses may be based on subjective assessments and
assumptions and may utilize one among alternative methodologies that produce differing results; accordingly, such projections, valuations
and statistical analyses are not to be viewed as facts and should not be relied upon as an accurate representation of future events. The
recipient should make an independent evaluation and judgment with respect to the matters contained herein.
Back Up
Energy Efficiency Programs
Global Oil Market Performance 2010 Oil Market OutlookRefinery Business Plan
2011
Energy consumption plan
Base 2009 (6.53%FOEB) 2010
Oper. Oper. Invest. Oper. Invest. Oper. Invest.
Accumulate Energy
reduction, %FOEB 0.421 0.472 0.009 0.480 0.099 0.487 0.256
% reduction on base 2009 6.4 7.2 0.1 7.4 1.5 7.5 3.9
6.4 7.4 8.9 11.4
2012 (est.)2011 (est.) 2013 (est.)
50
Energy Efficiency Programs
Global Oil Market Performance 2010 Oil Market OutlookRefinery Business Plan
2011
Energy consumption plan
Energy
saving
Benefit
(%FOEB) (MB/yr)
Operational Improvement 0.086 76.3
1. Optimize amine regenerator reflux ratio (3C-2402) 0.001 1.1
2. Optimize reformer excess air 0.057 40
3. Maximize Naphtha temperature feed to HCU 0.003 0.1
4. Optimize gasoline stabilizer reflux ratio (3C-201) 0.002 1.4
5. Optimize gasoil to diesel ratio in Crude fractionator (3C-101) 0.007 3.7
6. Minimize MP steam used at VDU furnace coil 0.004 3.0
7. Shut down TG-4 0.012 27
Project name
51
Energy Efficiency Programs
Global Oil Market Performance 2010 Oil Market OutlookRefinery Business Plan
2011
Energy consumption plan
Investment Energy
saving
Benefit IRR Payback
period
(MB) (%FOEB) (MB/yr) (%) (yrs)
Investment Improvement 482.6 0.256 167.9
1. Install bypass LVGO coolers line to hot feed DGO from VDU 2.0 0.010 7.9 280 0.4
2. Install new line to use TPA to reboil deethaniser 3.5 0.007 5.6 115 0.9
3. Install new line from 3P-108 to 3P-109 to utilize GO exchanger 1.5 0.007 7.3 340 0.3
4. Install insert tube on 3E-119 to increase desalter temp 1.0 0.001 2.6 170 0.5
5. Install new exchanger 2E-124B to increase feed temp to debutanizer* 6.6 0.005 2.5 27 3.4
6.Generate LPS from debutaniser bottoms in HCU* 26.4 0.018 9.0 24 3.7
7. Install new exchanger for recovery heat to deethaniser & debutaniser in HCU* ** 38.4 0.005 11.0 19 4.3
8. Replace MP steam to LP steam from VDU furnace stack* 25.2 0.014 7.0 18 4.5
9. Install new heat exchanger to preheater HPU feed by LK from HCU* 43.2 0.022 10.5 15 5.0
10. Install new back press turbine pump from IHP to LP and utilize LP steam* 80.4 0.045 30.5 27 3.4
11. Install new HX to pre-heat Desalter water by CRU#3 reactor effluent * 74.4 0.032 22.0 20 4.2
12. Install hot separator for DGOHDSU and preheat deaerator feed water* 180.0 0.090 52.0 19 4.3
Project name
52