Download - The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. - listed company
The Bangchak Petroleum Plc.
Analyst Meeting • May 22, 2008
Mr. Patiparn Sukorndhaman
Mr. Bandit Hunsapaiboon
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Disclaimer
The information contained herein is being furnished on a confidential basis for
discussion purposes only and only for the use of the recipient, and may be subject
to completion or amendment through the delivery of additional documentation.
Except as otherwise provided herein, this document does not constitute an offer to
sell or purchase any security or engage in any transaction. The information
contained herein has been obtained from sources that The Bangchak Petroleum
Public Company Limited (“BCP”) considers to be reliable; however, BCP makes no
representation as to, and accepts no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein. Any projections, valuations and
statistical analyses contained herein have been provided to assist the recipient in
the evaluation of the matters described herein; such projections, valuations and
analyses may be based on subjective assessments and assumptions and may
utilize one among alternative methodologies that produce differing results;
accordingly, such projections, valuations and statistical analyses are not to be
viewed as facts and should not be relied upon as an accurate representation of
future events. The recipient should make an independent evaluation and judgment
with respect to the matters contained herein.
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Bangchak Bio Fuel (BBF)
Performance 1Q2008
Contents
► Refinery Business� Marketing
PQI Progress
Events and Activities
Oil Situation
4
Performance Performance 11QQ20082008
5
Factors Effect to 1Q2008 Performance
Unfavorable
• Product crack spread
•Oil price hike
•Crude selection
• Pattani crude price formula
•Higher capacity utilization
• Fuel oil export market
(Volume + Price formula)
• FX hedging (Sell / Buy)
•Marketing margin squeeze
• Plant shutdown
• FX appreciation
Favorable
Drive to
MAX. GRM
6(25)
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)
-
J F M A M J J A S O N D
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
J F M A M J J A S O N D
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
J F M A M J J A S O N D
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
J F M A M J J A S O N D
USD/Bbl
Singapore’s Oil Price Movement
Y2007
Y2008
Dubai 95/Dubai
GO/Dubai FO/Dubai
USD/Bbl USD/Bbl
USD/Bbl
AVG.1Q08=91.09
AVG.1Q07=55.43
AVG.FY07=68.41AVG.1Q08=13.70
AVG.1Q07=12.92
AVG.FY07=14.55
AVG.1Q08=22.84
AVG.1Q07=14.54
AVG.FY07=16.72
AVG.1Q08=(17.10)
AVG.1Q07=(10.40)
AVG.FY07=(10.40)
7
Refinery : Record Breaking GRM 1Q1Q
2008 2007
M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL
EBITDA +1,457 +86
� Base GRM 924 5.15 571 3.39
� GRM Hedging 91 0.51 71 0.42
� Inventory Gain / (Loss) 810 4.51 (352) (2.09)
� Inventory Write Down - - +55 0.33
Total GRM 1,824 10.17 345 2.05
� Other Income 12 0.07 14 0.08
� Expenses (379) (2.11) (273) (1.62)
� Adjusted EBITDA +647 +383
Crude Run (KBD) 61 52
3.815.66
$/Bbl 1Q,08 1Q,07
95/DB 13.70 12.92
GO/DB 22.84 14.54
FO/DB (17.10) (10.40) * *
*GRM base on calculation by crude run
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Refinery : Record Breaking GRM
Total GRMTotal GRM
1010..1717 $/Bbl$/Bbl
4.51
0.51
5.15
Inventory GainGRM Hedging
Base GRM
4Q07 83.39
1Q08 91.09
1Q07 55.4364.3%
9.3%
AVG. Dubai PriceAVG. Dubai Price
•Kerosene-Dubai
•Gasoil-Dubai
• Fuel oil-Dubai
• Local crude selection
• Pattani crude price link
• Fuel oil export price formula
• Gas oil crack spread
CommoditiesCommoditiesMain ContributionMain Contribution
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-
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Capacity (KBD)
Plant no. 2 40
Plant no. 3 80
Refinery : Up to Nameplate Trial Run
Total 120
KBD
•Annual Turnaround Plant both plant 2 & 3
• Tie-in PQI’s Facilities
• Maximum Capacity Readiness Taskforce (MCRT)
2007 Actual2008 Actual 2008 Plan
Turnaround Period
Jan 25 - Feb 18, 2008
Feb 04 - Mar 07, 2008
For
Avg. 1Q08 = 61 KBDAvg. 1Q07 = 53 KBD
Total shutdown ~ 15 days
Avg. 2008 = ~73 KBDAvg. 2007 = 66 KBD
10
86
1,507 1,457
383480
647
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
1Q07 4Q07 1Q08
EBITDA Adjusted EBITDA
Refinery : Performance is in Better Shape
0
20
40
60
80
100
2004 2005 2006 2007 1Q08
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Crude Intake Base GRM
EBITDA of Refinery
EBITDA of Refinery
GRM ($/Bbl)
Million Baht
c
Crude Intake & GRM
Crude Intake & GRM Crude Intake (KBD)
Less Fuel oil
demand from EGAT
Co-cracking with Thaioil
FO pricesubstantial reduction
Export Fuel oil to China
RecordBreakingOil Spred
EBITDA
+ 1,594% YoY- 3.3% QoQ
Adjusted EBITDA
+ 68.9% YoY+ 34.8% QoQ
AVG. Dubai Price ($/Bbl)
33.63
49.36
61.4868.41
91.09
*
*Not included GRM from improvement program & hedging
11(2)
(1)
1
2
3
4
Jan Apr Jul Oct
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Marketing : Gasoil Price & MKMGasoil Price
HSD
Maketing Margin
U$/Bbl
Baht/Liter
20072008
20072008
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
12(2)
(1)
1
2
3
4
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Marketing : UNL95 Price & MKM
20072008
20072008
UNL95l Price
ULG95
Maketing Margin
U$/Bbl
Baht/Liter
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
13
Marketing : Performance Low from Oil Price1Q1Q
2008 2007
M.Baht St./L. M.Baht St./L.
EBITDA +102 +191
� Retail Margin 135 23 200 39
� Industrial Margin 84 43 77 33
� Lube Margin 38 969 20 598
Total MKM 257 29 297 40
� Other Income 136 17 121 16
� Operating Expenses (291) (37) (227) (30)
� Sale Volume KBD ML/MO KBD ML/MO
- Retail Vol. 40 194 36 172
- Industrial Vol. 14 65 17 80
Total 54 259 53 252
3728
14
3232..6 6 %%
16.0 %17.3 %
1212..7 7 %%
88..4 4 %%
OthersOthers
1313..0 0 %%
3434..8 8 %%
15.4 %16.0 %
1313..5 5 %%
77..9 9 %%
OthersOthers
1212..4 4 %%
Y2007
Source : DOEB, MOE
Market Share increased from 12.7% to 13.5%
4thRank1Q08
15
Market Share through Service Station by Geography
22.6%34.1% 39.1% 44.7% 47.8%
18.0%
13.6%13.8%
11.9%19.1%
23.3% 12.8%11.6%
12.1%
15.1%13.5%
13.7%16.1%
16.7%
6.0%7.1% 11.7% 3.9%
2.8%7.3%10.3% 7.1% 6.3%
6.9%4.7%5.2% 6.9% 9.3% 5.0%
BKK Central North NE South
OTHERS
CALTX
JET
BCP
ESSO
SHELL
PTT
30.9%
24 2 25
BKK & Metropolitan
CentralArea
NorthernArea
NortheastArea
SouthernArea
23.4% 17.3% 15.5% 12.9%
For For 11Q, Q, 20082008
AREAAREA
ConsumptionConsumption
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Marketing Business : Sales Breakdown for 1Q08
Sales Volume of Marketing Business(Million Liters / Month)
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Highlight of Marketing Achievement in 1Q08
Increase No. of Service Station
Ref : Channel serv ice station for 1Q 2008
Increase biodiesel(B5) portion
50
379
710
873
Dec’06
Mar’07
Dec’07
Apr’08
1st rank market share
BIODIESEL B5
BCP 59.3%
58%42%
26%
74%
FY2007 1Q 2008
Increase No. of Service Station
Ref : Channel serv ice station for 1Q 2008
Increase gasohol 91(GSH91) portion
249
282
497
589
Dec’06
Mar’07
Dec’07
Apr’08
1st rank market share
GASOHOL 91
BCP 47.0%
FY2007 1Q 2008
B5 Diesel Normal Grade
50%50%
31%
69%
GSH91 Gasoline 91 Normal Grade
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Sales & Thruput through Service Station
Sales by Type Thruput by Type
“Bio fuel drive sales continue increase esp. COCO & CO-OP”
334.1
286.0
240.1 229.2 221.8
210.6
102.8 86.3 78.5
0
100
200
300
400
COCO Dealer+JV CO-OP
KL./Station/MO
Y2006 Y2007 1Q08
169.8 178.7 194.2Total
ML./MO
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1Q2008
EBITDA 1,559 277 +462.8%
� Depreciation & Amortization (203) (205) -1.0%
� Net Interest Expense (114) (112) +1.8%
� FX-Other Gain (Loss) (45) (40) +12.5%
� Impairment Adjustment - - -
� � � � Profit / (Loss) before Tax 1,197 (80) +1,596.3%
� Tax (356) 26 +1,469.2%
Net Profit (Loss) 841 (54) +1,657.4%
- INVENTORY GAIN / (LOSS) 810 (297) +372.7%
Adjusted EBITDA 749 574 +30.5%
Company Performance 1Q2008: Million Baht
1Q2007 YoY
20
0 %2 0 %4 0 %6 0 %8 0 %1 0 0 % 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 1 Q 0 8 Re f in e r y Bu s in e s sM K B u s in e s s0 %2 0 %4 0 %6 0 %8 0 %1 0 0 % 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 1 Q 0 8 Re f in e r y Bu s in e s sM K B u s in e s sPerformance Ratio Between Business Unit in term of EBITDA
1,613 3,977
2,323 2,120
1,559
749
EBITDA (MBt.)
Adjusted EBITDA (MBt.)
21
PQI Progress PQI Progress
As of Apr’As of Apr’0808 8585..88%%
22
Equipments Installation
As of May,08
Equipment Delivery and Erection Status
Static Rotating Total %
Arrived
- at storage 119 56 175 32%
- Erected 222 145 367 66%
Total Arrive 341 201 542 98%
Not Arrive
- Shipping 1 3 4 1%
- at shop 3 6 9 1%
Total not Arrive 4 9 13 2%
Total 345 210 555 100%
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Bangchak Bio Fuel (BBF) Bangchak Bio Fuel (BBF)
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Summary : Bio Diesel Project
Set up new company Bangchak Bio Fuel Co., Ltd.
Plant Capacity 0.30 ML per day (Continuous Process)
Project Cost 1,018 Million Baht (Project Finance)
D/E Gearing 2.3:1, Loan 710 MB : Equity 308 MB
Shareholder Structure BCP 70% :UAC 30%
Related Contract
ContractorLender
Feed Stock Product Off-take
TRC ConstructionKTB
60% Secured60% Secured (BCP)
Location Bang-pa-in
Construction Period 15 Months (Apr’08 - Jun’09)
Chaopraya River
Railway
High way
#3442
Express way
Biodiesel Biodiesel ComplexComplex
IRR > 25%
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Summary : Bio Diesel Project
BenefitsBenefits
1. Located within Diesel Demand Center (70%
of total demand).2. Adjacent to BPI and FPT terminals and close
to major oil terminal (Thappline).
3. Share facilities with BPI terminal.
FPTBang-Pa-InOil Terminal(BPI)
Site Area
CPOCPO
Others Oil Others Oil CompanyCompany
BiodieselBiodiesel
GlycerineGlycerine
306 306 Ton/DayTon/Day
300300,,000 000 Liter/DayLiter/Day
36 36 Ton/DayTon/Day
30 30 Ton/DayTon/Day
Met-OH
6060%%
4040%%
BB100 100 = = 00..9797CPOCPO + + 00..1515 MetOHMetOH + + 33..3232
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OPEC
Oil Situation Oil Situation
27
4550556065707580859095100105110115120125130135140145150155160165
GO 0.5%S
UNL 95
Dubai
?
$/BBL
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D’07 ‘08
120.25
161.79
132.20
how is the oil price 2008
Oil Price Situation @May 20’ 2008
28
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
USD/BBL
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Dubai Price Movement 1998 - 2008
OPEC Cartel to cut 4 series quota production at total 4.3 MBD 911
US attack Iraq
• Hedge Fund Buying
•Nigeria Concern
• Hedge Fund Buying•Norway/Nigeria Concern
Hurricane
Politic Tension/Supply Glitch/
Rising Demand (China & India) / Hedge Fund
29
Possible to reach 200 $/BBL??!!
How High Could Oil Prices Go ?
30
Oil Price Movement Factors
- World Oil Demand - Crude/Product Inventory
- World Oil Supply - Extreme Weather
- New / Expanded Refineries - Refining Capacity Constraints
- Speculator / Hedge Fund - Geopolitical Risk
- US. Dollar - Oil Production Costs(Currency Impact on OPEC Basket Price)
31
World Oil Supply/Demand
Unit : MBD 2007 2008(F)
World DemandOECD DemandNon-OECD Demand
86.049.136.9
87.248.938.3
Non-OPECCall on OPEC Inc. NGLOPEC Production Inc. NGL
50.235.835.5
50.536.737.2 ?
World Supply 85.7 87.7 ?
Implied Stockbuild -0.3 +0.5
Source : IEA @Apr Source : IEA @Apr 20082008
Revised demand downward consecutive month since
the beginning of the year From 2 to 1.2 MBD as of April
report
32
World Oil Demand
-180
-370
240
North America
Latin America
190230
270 Africa
-20
110130
Middle East300
370
250
4090
-340
Europe
170
6040
FSU
480
770
520
Asia
Global Demand GrowthGlobal Demand Growth@ May @ May 20082008(MBD)(MBD)
2006 02006 0..98 198 1..22%%
20072007 00..90 190 1..11%%20082008 11..03 103 1..22%%
Global Demand Growth 2006/2007/2008Thousand barrels per day
Source : IEA @Apr Source : IEA @Apr 20082008
33
Limited Supply from OPEC and Non- OPEC
Both OPEC and Non-OPEC Supply Struggling To Glow
34
Global Oil Production and Refining Capacity
Source : IEA, DOE, and Goldman Sachs Commodities ResearchSource : IEA, DOE, and Goldman Sachs Commodities Research
Exhausted Spare Capacity
Global OutputGlobal Output
Global Production Global Production CapacityCapacity Global Refining Global Refining
CapacityCapacity
World Petroleum World Petroleum SupplySupply
World Petroleum World Petroleum DemandDemand
Global Oil Production and CapacityGlobal Oil Production and Capacity Global Refining CapacityGlobal Refining Capacity
65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05
MBDMBD
Year Year
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
35
Refinery Capacity Expansions
Source : JBC Energy @Apr Source : JBC Energy @Apr 20082008
36
Speculators Effect (NYMEX Crude Futures & Options)
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180Future & Options
WTI
$/B$/BBLBLMBMB
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N DJ F M A M J J A S O N D
’’0707 ‘‘0808
Long 139 MB (-2 MB)
at 13/05/08
37
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60
1.65WTI
FX : EUR/US$
EUREUR /US$US$US$/BBLUS$/BBL
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N DJ F M A M J J A S O N D
’’0707 ‘‘0808
WTI & EUR/US$ Movement
38
USA. Stocks
All USA. Oil stock level are moving in comfortable level
39
Where are Oil Price Headed
•• While demand remains buoyant, little chance to build While demand remains buoyant, little chance to build sufficient spare capacitysufficient spare capacity
•• Demand destruction has only been apparent in poorer Demand destruction has only been apparent in poorer countriescountries
•• US, Global slowdown may well curtail US, Global slowdown may well curtail 20082008//2009 2009 demand demand growthgrowth
•• Prices will remain extremely volatilePrices will remain extremely volatile
•• Weak dollar will be a key factor in determining ‘headline’ Weak dollar will be a key factor in determining ‘headline’ price.price.
•• Technology will play an increasingly important roleTechnology will play an increasingly important role
•• NGLs, alternative energy to grow.NGLs, alternative energy to grow.
Oil will never be “cheap” again
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
165GO 0.5%S
UNL 95
Dubai
$/BBL
2008 Price Forecast @May 20’ 2008
Avg. Crack 2007
95/DB = 14.49G.O./DB = 16.63
Dubai Price = 95 - 105
UNL 95 Crack= 12 - 14
G.O. 0.5%S Crack = 24 - 26
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D’07 ‘08
120.25
161.79
132.20
41
Event & ActivitiesEvent & Activities
42
Marketing Promotion
ForFor GE SeriesGE Series && DD3 3 SeriesSeries from now tofrom now to July July 3131, , 20082008
GE Gold SM (100% Real Synthetic Technology) get free “JABRA By I-MOBILE BluetoothHeadset value of Baht 1,290”
D3 Gold (100% Real Synthetic Technology) get free “digital weighing apparatus value of Baht 1,100”
GE Silver or D3 Turbo Plus get free “beach chair value of Baht 600”
GE Plus or D3 Pick Up Plus get free “picnic chair” value of Baht 200”
43
Marketing Promotion
44
Cooperative with Tourism Authority of Thailand, when spending at any BCP’s service station the customers will get discount for an exchange the book “108 BCEFGHIIJKLM” at Baht 170 (normal price Baht 250). This champagne launch during April 1 - June 30, 2008
Marketing Promotion
45
CSR
March 31, 2008 opening ceremony for 33rdrd Youth Summer Camp with BCPYouth Summer Camp with BCP
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Adjust UCO Buying Price to 20 Baht/Liter
10101212
1313
14141616
47
IR Activities
AGM AGM 20082008AGM AGM 20082008
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IR Activities
Money Expo Money Expo 20082008Money Expo Money Expo 20082008
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Company Visit
For this year will be held on For this year will be held on July July 1111, , 20082008
Thank YouThank You
For more informationFor more information
www.bangchak.co.thwww.bangchak.co.thEmail : [email protected] : [email protected]