tbli nordic 2015 - henrik skøvby - impact investing in emerging markets
TRANSCRIPT
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There are many strategies to have impact for institutional investors in developing markets – some examples
Source: Dalberg Global Development Advisors, Innovative Financing for Development, 2014
What is innovative? How does it support development?
New
Product New
Market
New Participant
s
Mobilize Resource
s
Financial Intermediatio
n
Deliver Resourc
es Securities and Derivatives Thematic Bonds X X X Guarantees X X X Thematic Loans X X
Microfinance Investment Funds X X X
Other Investment Funds X X X Other Derivative Products X X X X Results-based Financing
Advanced market commitments X X X
Awards and Prizes X X Development Impact Bonds X X
Performance-based contracts X X
Debt-swaps and buy-downs X X Voluntary contributions Carbon Auctions (voluntary) X X X X Consumer Purchases X X
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Taking a conservative approach, innovative financing has mobilized $93 billion since 2000
Distribution of innovative financing mechanisms, by type Percent of total mobilized (n=278)
Note: Data based on nominal values of dollars at risk. Amount mobilized refers to the total size of the instrument, not the subsidy or amount disbursed by donors. For example, GHIF mobilized $108 million, but SIDA and the Foundation contributions will depend on the funds’ performance. Source: Dalberg Global Development Advisors, Innovative Financing for Development, 2014
• Innovative financing is not financial innovation: bonds and guarantees are established products.
• In fact, one long-established development guarantee program – the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency– accounts for 26% of the total amount mobilized.
• Bonds and guarantees make up 64% of the amount mobilized since 2000.
• Taxes make up only 2.6%: the key tax (FTT) is recent and so far restricted to France.
Securities and Derivatives Results-based mechanisms Voluntary Contributions Compulsory Charges
3
Annual amount mobilized, 2001-2012 USD millions (n=278)
Innovative financing has grown three-fold in the last decade to roughly $11 billion per year (2012)
Note: Annual mobilized data was not available for 141 instruments. For these instruments, we assumed that the entire amount mobilized was mobilized in the launch year. Source: Dalberg Global Development Advisors, Innovative Financing for Development, 2014
Awards and prizes
2010
2009
AMC
Investment funds
2011
2012
Taxes
Performance-based contracts
2006
2004
Loans Microfinance Funds
2007
2001
Guarantees
Bonds
Consumer Donations
2003
Other derivative products
2005
Debt-swaps and buy-downs
2008
Auctions
2002
4
There is a growing number of opportunities to invest, but it is still early days for some of the more innovative blended models
Landscape of Innovative Financing Mechanisms, 2000-2013
Source: Dalberg Global Development Advisors, Innovative Financing for Development, 2014; Dalberg Analysis.
• Proven models, such as guarantees and bonds, are financially efficient mechanisms that have clear standards for assessing risk and established track records. Many donors interviewed expressed interest in guarantees, which have high leverage ratios, but expressed reluctance to make long-term commitments through bonds.
• Opportunities for replications, such as performance-based contracts, enjoy broad interest among donors, but have limited performance history to attract private investors.
• Newer ideas, such as AMCs and DIBs, are being widely discussed but have few concrete commitments. They will require substantial donor support before they can scale beyond the pilot stage.
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• Many potential sources of capital and expertise remain untapped (e.g., insurers, domestic companies, and pension funds).
• New innovative financing mechanisms often fail to account for the existing business models, incentives, and constraints of investors and private business (e.g., commercial and investment banks, insurance companies, and FX brokers).
Increase the depth of the capital pool
Promote the right kind of
innovation
Streamline transaction costs
Build intermediaries who can then
build the market
• The market is still very conservative; 2/3 of initiatives in the Innovative Financing Initiative database are conventional bonds and guarantees.
• Innovative energy is often focused on designing bespoke pilots, rather than on how models can be scaled and replicated.
• Transaction costs are often high, dragging out timelines for years and dissipating momentum.
• The cost of gathering on-the-ground or historical performance data means investors face uncertain/complex risk profiles and demand high returns.
• Many missed opportunities because few players have the context and credibility to “translate between” public finance institutions, private players, and local governments.
• Those that do exist often focus on small set of actors or specific issues.
What are the major opportunities that we see in the market today?
Source: Dalberg Global Development Advisors, Innovative Financing for Development, 2014; Dalberg analysis.