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The Sudan Consortium African and International Civil Society Action for Sudan

Sudan Public Opinion Poll Khartoum State

April 2015

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Table of Contents 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 3

1.1 Background ................................................................................................................................. 3 1.2 Sample and Survey Methodology ............................................................................................... 4

Section 1: Assessment of the socioeconomic situation ........................................................................ 7 1.1 Assessment of families’ socioeconomic situation ....................................................................... 7 1.2 Assessment and expectations of the socioeconomic situation in the Sudan ............................ 12

Section 2: Security in the country and residential areas ..................................................................... 14 Section 3: Problems facing the country .............................................................................................. 16 Section 4: Emigration outside Sudan .................................................................................................. 18 Section 5: Locality services ................................................................................................................. 19 Section 6: Corruption .......................................................................................................................... 22 Section 7: Democracy and national dialogue ...................................................................................... 24 Annex .................................................................................................................................................. 28

The data published in this poll was gathered by trusted partners in Sudan.

Thanks go to Humanity United, without whose generous support this project would not have been

possible.

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1. Introduction

1.1 Background This report consists of the main results of a public opinion poll undertaken in 2014 in Khartoum State, Sudan. The opinion poll focused on the general satisfaction of the citizens of Khartoum State with the state of governance. The results were gathered in the field through direct structured interviews in the seven localities of Khartoum State. The sample size for the survey was determined by the accuracy, and degree of precision required for the survey estimates, for each locality and available resources. The interviews were carried out by qualified well trained young researchers. This project is intended to address the issue of transparency, accountability and governance in Sudan. This opinion poll has created an opportunity for a better informed electorate. In collecting people’s opinion on the quality of public services, employment, education and government policies in Sudan, civil society is able to advocate for better services. By building awareness of what is going on at a local community level, this project intended to help in establishing a foundation for a civic national consciousness. This project has provided civil society with facts about the opinions of the Khartoum State people rather than stereotypes, rumours and unsubstantiated claims. Civic identity, which requires a healthy civil society, is important in maintaining a cohesive state apparatus, especially one that governs as diverse a population as that of Sudan. Civil society organizations require reliable information in order to direct their energies more effectively. To reach the objective of a better informed civil society, there must be space for individual expression and ways to relay accurate information on how Sudanese citizens feel. However, due to censorship by the central government, free expression of thought and opinion on Sudanese television, print media, internet, radio and other outlets, is lacking. That being said, this does not mean dialogue on social topics cannot occur. Private research institutions that implemented opinion polls in Sudan were neither able to publish their research nor disclose the identities of their patrons as they are bound by law and good business sense not to. Business and corruption go hand in hand, of course, and the result is a conflict of interest wherein economic and political elites capitalise on research at the expense of the average Sudanese citizen. For these reasons transparency and accuracy of data and analysis are of paramount importance. This project was also intended to establish a model for other independent researchers to contribute to the knowledge of Sudan and its people. Sudan faces a mix of political, economic and security challenges, all of which are likely to intensify as the elections grow near. The ongoing discussions about how to make progress includes approaches such as national dialogues. These can be part of a broader political reform process that involves all groups, and addresses governance, diversity and reconciliation. This report is divided into seven sections that cover the core issues concerning Sudanese people, including; government services, the socioeconomic situation of Sudanese (poverty, unemployment, etc.), the economic situation of Sudan, the security and conflict situation, corruption, democracy, national dialogue, etc. the sections are:

1. Socio-economic situation (family, country, price of services) 2. Security (neighbourhood, country) 3. Problems facing country 4. Emigration 5. Locality services (general, health, education) 6. Corruption (spread, measures against) 7. Democracy (general, national dialogue)

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1.2 Sample and Survey Methodology

a) Sample design The sample for the survey was designed to provide estimates on some key indicators of specific issues concerning Sudanese people, such as public and government services, the socio-economic situation of Sudanese (poverty, unemployment, etc.), the economic situation of Sudan, the security and conflict situation, corruption, democracy, national dialogue, etc. The chosen location was Khartoum State and its 7 localities (Karari, Omdurman, Ombadda, Shareq Elneel, Bahri, Khartoum and Jabal Awlieya). The survey addressed questions to households and individual members of households. The population living in institutions and group quarters such as hospitals, military bases and prisons, were excluded from the sample. The localities constituted the main sampling domains. In each locality a two stage cluster sampling design was employed to draw the sample for the survey. The villages or quarters (in the case of urban areas) constituted the Primary Sampling Units (PSUs). The PSU represents the smallest area or administrative unit which could be identified in the field with commonly recognised boundaries. The sampling frame for the 7 localities was compiled using the list of villages and quarters. The estimated number of households was taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics on the basis of the updated frame from the 2008 population census. The 7 localities’ clusters (PSUs) were distributed to urban and rural areas, proportional to the size of urban and rural households in each locality. The urban and rural clusters in each of these localities were selected randomly with probability of selection proportional to size (PPS). Table 1: shows the sample distribution by locality and mode of living

Locality

Mode of living

Urban Rural Total

Households % Households % Households %

Karari 522 88.8 66 11.2 588 100.0

Ombadda 607 90.2 66 9.8 673 100.0

Omdurman 446 66.0 230 34.0 676 100.0

Bahri 595 79.4 154 20.6 749 100.0

Shareq Elneel 464 60.1 308 39.9 772 100.0

Khartoum 665 100.0 0.0 0.0 665 100.0

Jabal Awlieya 600 85.0 106 15.0 706 100.0

Total 3899 80.7 930 19.3 4829 100.0

b) Sample size and sample selection procedures The sample size for the survey was determined by the accuracy and degree of precision required for the survey estimates for each locality and available resources (see annex). It was judged that a minimum sample of 782 households would be necessary to make estimates/results with some degree of precision at the locality level (see table 1). Since a similar level of precision was required for the survey results from each locality, it was decided to draw 34 clusters from each locality and 23 households from each cluster. The sampling frame of villages/quarters was compiled separately for each locality based on the best available population measures. In cases where a selected village/quarter could not be reached because of security or access problems, it was replaced by a neighbouring village/quarter in the sampling frame. All selected clusters (villages/quarters) in each locality were covered. A sample of 23 households was drawn from each selected cluster using the

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method of, systematic with random start. For each selected household the interview was conducted with the head of the household and one member selected randomly if his/her age was 18 years or over. Table 2: Number of households interviewed and response rate

Locality Sampled Interviewed Response rate (%)

Karari 782 588 75.2

Ombadda 782 673 86.1

Omdurman 782 676 86.4

Bahri 782 749 95.8

Shareq Elneel 782 772 98.7

Khartoum 782 665 85.0

Jabal Awlieya 782 706 90.3

Total 5,474 4,829 88.2

c) Training of data collectors Two training workshops were organized for 60 data collectors. Each workshop lasted four days and covered research methodology in general, as well as, interviewing techniques, how to frame questions and how to fill in the questionnaire. An additional day was reserved to conduct a pilot test of the questionnaire. The data collectors selected were either university students or recent graduates with an interest in social science and research. They come from the different localities of Khartoum and representative of the country’s ethnic and socio-economic diversity. The first group of data collectors were trained from 12 - 15 May, and the second group from 17 - 20 May. Out of the 54 trained, 40 were selected for the polling field work. The intention of the training was to select youth who are interested in social science research and to build their capacity so that they can conduct further studies on their own while also serving as a resource to the centre in case of future surveys and other field work. A representative sample of data collectors was selected from the seven localities of Khartoum so that they can carry out the polling questionnaire in their own communities. For a more detailed workshop report see the Annex. d) Ethics and consent procedure Selection of respondents in sample villages/quarters required official consultation with the villages/quarters’ authorities. After respondents were randomly selected in each of the sample villages/quarters, interviewers were then required to formally introduce themselves and the purpose of the interviews. During this introductory phase, the respondents were informed that all responses would be noted down but would be kept confidential at all times. Respondents were informed that they could choose whether or not to participate in the survey. e) Data collection and quality control Number of field supervisors, data collectors, and duration of field work.

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f) Data entry and data analysis The data entry application was developed using Census and Survey Processing System (CSPro) software package. Five data entry operators (four females and one male) with previous experience on CSPro (Census and Survey Processing System) were recruited and were given refresher sessions on data entry/verification and data modification using actual survey data. After completing data entry for the seven localities of Khartoum State, the concatenated data file was edited to resolve inconsistencies and exported to SPSS (a statistical analysis software) for further analysis.

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Section 1: Assessment of the socio-economic situation This section deals with the how Khartoum State citizens were assessing their lives and economic situations as well as Sudan’s economic situation. The section presents a range of indicators designed to reflect the attitudes of people of Khartoum State towards the main issues of their own lives, societies and country. This was done by determining the degree to which they are satisfied with their economic situation, if their income is sufficient to cover their regular expenditure and basic needs , their expectation of their family’s economic situation in the near future (next two to three years) as well as their assessment and expectation of the Sudan socio-economic situation. 1.1 Assessment of families’ socio-economic situation

a) General assessment Citizens of Khartoum State are somewhat content with their family economic situation, as 57.9% stated that they are somewhat satisfied with their family economic situation, compared to 19.1% who stated that they were dissatisfied or completely dissatisfied with their economic situation. The proportion of those who were very satisfied was 3.8%. Responses varied a little according to locality. The highest percentage of those slightly satisfied with their economic conditions were found in Ombadda and Karari with rate of 62.9% and 62% respectively. In Khartoum locality, the people who were very satisfied with their family economic conditions is 4.9% representing the highest rate in the State. Graph 1: How do you evaluate your family’s economic situation?

It has to be noted that the respondents’ assessment of their families’ economic situation was set against personal benchmarks and definitely subjective standards influenced by a variety of factors, including, the family’s subjective attitude towards their own economic situation, as well as psychological factors related to the concept of satisfaction and the economic condition of other

4.1 2.8 3.9 4.6 2.9 4.9 3.4 3.8

15.410.3

17.5 15.0 14.718.6

12.8 14.9

62.062.9

54.9 56.554.6

57.9

57.557.9

13.215.6 15.7 16.1

16.1

11.817.8 15.3

4.1 8.2 7.8 7.4 11.4 5.8 8.0 7.6

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Karari Ombadda Omdurman Bahri ShareqElneel

Khartoum JabalAwlieya

Stateaverage

Very satisfied Satisfied

Somewhat satisfied Dissatisfied

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households in their neighbourhood, as well as, in Khartoum State in general, or from where these families are originated. Therefore, to minimize the influence of such subjectivity and psychological factors and to have more accurate information about the economic situation the project further measured the level to which family income covers regular family expenditure and basic needs. As the chart below indicates, 59% of respondents stated that their family does not have any income or their income is insufficient to cover household expenses, and they struggle to make ends meet with their monthly expenditure, 33% indicated that their income is sufficient to cover their family expenses and basic needs, however, they have no savings, while only 7% of the respondents have income to cover their expenses and can afford to make some savings. For the variation between the localities see the chart below. Graph 2: Which of the following statements best describes your family’s income

And for those who struggle to cover the household expenses, 63% of them get loans from family and friends, 15% get assistance from relatives, friends and neighbours in Sudan, 14% seek extra work, 11% forgo some necessities, and 9% get assistance from relatives and friends outside Sudan. b) Affordability of the cost of the monthly bills, and the prices of basic services

To further minimize the influence of households’ subjective attitude towards their own economic situation, as well as psychological factors related to the concept of satisfaction and economic condition of other households in their neighbourhood as well as in Khartoum State in general, or from where these families are originated, the project assessed the extent to which families in Khartoum State can afford the cost of their monthly bills, and the prices of regular family basic needs. Graphs nos 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 below show that more than 50% (in many localities even between 60% and 70%) of citizens of Khartoum State cannot afford the cost of their monthly bills, and the prices of health, education, water, electricity, gas and transport services.

1.4 1.3 5.0 1.5 2.3 1.1 4.8 2.5

39.5 34.618.9 22.4

34.4

11.617.2 25.4

21.7 30.8

27.2 34.1

34.8

34.6

32.831.1

30.629.7

39.1 31.9

21.8

40.635.6 32.6

5.8 1.5 7.3 8.3 4.6 10.5 7.3 6.5

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100% Income is sufficient tocover householdexpenses, and thereare savingsIncome is sufficient tocover householdexpenses, but nosavingsIncome is insufficientto cover householdexpenses, and westruggle to make endsFluctuating income andalways insufficient

No income

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Graph 3: The cost of monthly bills, and the prices of health services

In Bahri, Shareq Elneel and Jabal Awlieya localities more than 70% of citizens cannot afford the cost of their monthly bills, and the prices of health services (see above). Less than 10% of the citizens in all localities stated that the cost of their monthly bills, and the prices of health services are feasible and affordable. As graph 4 shows, less than 7% of the citizens of all seven localities of Khartoum State indicated that the cost of their monthly bills and the prices of education services are feasible and affordable for them. 70.8% of the citizens in Shareq Elneel locality cannot afford the cost of their monthly bills, and the prices of education services. Graph 4: The cost of the monthly bills, and the prices of education services

24.9 25.1 24.314.6

27.1 26.9 25.0 23.9

39.2 42.9 44.247.3

43.2 38.6 46.6 43.3

26.2 24.4 23.7 33.224.4

24.5 21.1 25.4

8.2 5.5 6.6 4.7 1.3 6.2 5.3 5.3

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Feasible andaffordable

Affordable

Notaffordable

CompletelynotaffordableDon’t know/refuse to answer

23.1 20.5 23.811.5

34.624.8 21.1 22.8

39.2 39.1 40.5

39.0

36.241.9 44.6 40.0

29.3 31.2 25.639.9

20.9 22.4 26.0 27.9

5.0 4.2 6.5 6.7 3.7 5.8 4.4 5.2

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FeasibleandaffordableAffordable

Notaffordable

CompletelynotaffordableDon’t know/refuse to answer

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Graph 5: The cost of monthly bills, and the prices of water services

Graph 5, above, shows on average 51.8% of the citizen of Khartoum State can afford the cost of their monthly bills, and the prices of water services. However, it is noticeable that almost 80% of the citizens of Shareq Elneel locality cannot afford the cost of their monthly bills, and the prices of water services. Graph 6: The cost of monthly bills, and the prices of electricity services

The graph above shows that, on average 39.4% of the citizens of Khartoum State can afford the cost of their monthly bills, and the prices of electricity services, nevertheless there is a marked variation between localities in the respondents’ assessment of the cost of those monthly bills, and the prices of electricity services. As the graph above indicates, almost 80% of the citizens of Shareq Elneel locality cannot afford the cost of monthly bill water services. 60.3% of them cannot afford the electricity costs.

4.315.6

7.6 3.010.9 7.7 7.6 8.1

10.3

13.713.1

6.2

58.6

23.48.3

19.715.8

19.823.1

18.4

20.6

20.0

24.2

20.4

53.6

41.941.4

58.1

6.1

40.446.0

40.5

16.08.9 14.9 14.3

3.7 8.5 13.9 11.3

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Feasibleandaffordable

Affordable

Notaffordable

Completelynotaffordable

Don’t know/refuse to answer

9.1

31.113.2

5.7 7.7 6.515.2 12.6

12.0

8.6

8.25.4

60.3

20.5 4.917.5

20.4

21.0

21.0

21.3

20.8

26.622.3

21.9

45.0

32.6

42.4 57.8

5.3

38.245.9

37.9

13.5 6.715.1 9.9 6.0 8.2 11.7 10.0

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Feasible andaffordable

Affordable

Not affordable

Completely notaffordable

Don’t know/refuse to answer

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Graph 7: The cost of monthly bills, and the prices of gas services

The graph above shows that 38.3% of the citizens of Khartoum State can afford (“feasibly afford” and “affordable”) the cost of their monthly bills, and the prices of gas services. 55.2% of the citizens of Khartoum cannot afford (6.1% completely cannot afford) the cost of their monthly bills, and the prices of water services. Again it is noticeable that 70% of the citizens of Shareq Elneel locality cannot afford the cost of their monthly bills, and the prices of gas services. As the graph below also shows, 52.3% Khartoum’s citizens cannot afford the cost of their monthly bills, and the prices of transport services (22% “completely cannot afford”) 7.5% can feasibly afford them and 24.9% said they could afford them. 13.3% refused to answer. Graph 8: The cost of monthly bills, and the prices of transport services

2.414.3

4.9 2.7 5.2 5.5 10.2 6.512.8

15.518.2

7.1

39.7

22.6 9.7 18.2

41.2

30.634.2

32.8

39.9

39.241.3 37.0

37.9 35.534.6

48.0

11.4

28.031.9 32.2

5.7 4.2 8.1 9.4 3.8 4.7 6.9 6.1

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%Feasible andaffordable

Affordable

Not affordable

Completelynot affordable

Don’t know/refuse to answer

13.6 15.8 10.9 12.84.3

21.8 16.4 13.3

19.3 18.0 29.310.3

37.718.1

20.0 22.0

39.329.4

32.6

32.3

29.2 26.8 37.032.3

22.932.2

21.7

37.415.1 25.1

19.0 24.9

5.0 4.6 5.5 7.213.8 8.1 7.7 7.5

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Feasible andaffordable

Affordable

Not affordable

Completely notaffordable

Don’t know/refuse to answer

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c) Expectation of family’s economic situation in the near future (next 2-3 years) As the graph below shows, 49 % of citizens of Khartoum State expect that their family’s economic situation in the near future (the next 2 - 3 years) will be better than their current situation, 19% expect it to be worse, 15% expect it to be the same as the current situation, and 17% refused to answer. Graph 9: Expectations for your family’s economic situation in the near future, next 2-3 years

1.2 Assessment and expectations of the socioeconomic situation in the Sudan Consistent with the overall negative assessment of their economic situation, the citizens of Khartoum State also negatively assessed Sudan’s economic situation. As the graph below shows, the proportion of people who reported that Sudan’s economic situation is very poor or poor was 66.5% (31.6% as poor and 34.9% as very poor). 22.3% among the citizens of Khartoum assessed their country’s economic situation as acceptable and only 1% reported that it is very good. As the graph below shows, there is a slight variation between the expectations of the people living in the different localities. Graph 11 shows that 38% of the citizens of Khartoum are expecting that the country’s economic situation in the next 2 - 3 years will be worse than the current situation, 31% said that it will be better than the current situation and 12% stated that it will be the same as the current situation, while the remaining 19% refused to answer the question. There is a clear variation between the expectations of the people living in different localities. In Khartoum locality, 50% of the population are expecting that the country’s economic situation in the next 2 - 3 years will be worse than the current situation, in Bahri and Shareq Elneel localities 40% and 43.2% respectively are expecting that the country’s economic situation will deteriorate in the next 2 - 3 years. In Omdurman, Karari and Jabal Awlieya localities 34.8%, 34.3% and 37.4% respectively are expecting that the country’s economic situation will worsen in the next 2 - 3 years. In Ombadda 27.3% expect that the country’s economic situation will be worse in the next 2 - 3 years than it currently is.

61.5 57.147.4 43.1 41.5

54.842.6

49.2

15.715.5

13.9 19.014.3

13.5

12.4

14.9

12.615.0

21.6 17.721.7

18.7

21.618.6

10.2 12.5 17.1 20.1 22.513.1

23.4 17.3

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Karari Ombadda Omdurman Bahri ShareqElneel

Khartoum JabalAwlieya

State

Better than current situation Same as current situationWorse than current situation Don’t know/ refuse to answer

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Graph 10: How do you evaluate the country’s economic situation?

Graph 11: Expectations for the country’s economic situation in the next 2-3 years

6.5 8.0 8.0 6.7 6.5 3.9 5.7 6.5

24.631.2

24.719.2 20.5

15.121.7 22.3

33.3

30.9

28.032.3

35.1

29.5

32.0 31.6

33.2 25.134.9 37.9 30.9

47.634.5 34.9

1.7 3.0 3.0 3.2 5.1 2.6 4.8 3.4

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100% Don’t know/refuse to answer

Very poor

Poor

Acceptable

Good

42.5 46.237.1

21.7 21.1 24.2 28.0 31.0

14.6 13.2

11.4

14.4 11.1 8.310.7

11.9

34.3 27.334.8

40.4 43.250.0 37.4

38.4

8.6 13.2 16.723.6 24.6

17.5 24.0 18.7

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Karari Ombadda Omdurman Bahri Shareq Elneel Khartoum Jabal Awlieya State

Better than current situation Same as current situation

Worse than current situation Don’t know/ refuse to answer

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Section 2: Security in the country and residential areas

This section measures the expectations of Khartoum State citizens of with regard to Sudan’s security situation in the next 2 -3 years, as well as the measurement and expectations of their neighbourhood’s and residential areas safety. The general assessment of the security situation of the country was not as optimistic as their assessment of their security in their neighbourhoods and their places of residence. As the graph below shows, the proportion of people living in Khartoum State, who are expecting that the general security of the country will be worse than it currently is, was 30.6%. 15.6% of citizens are expecting that the security situation will be the same as the current situation, while 33.4% are expecting that the general security situation will be better than the current. It is clear that in Khartoum locality the proportion of the people who were expecting that the general country’s security will get worse is higher than the other localities (40%). Graph 12: What are your expectations for the country’s security situation in the next 2-3 years?

The general assessment by the citizens of Khartoum State regarding the security of their neighbourhoods and residential areas is that it is good. 57.6% state that the security of their neighbourhood and residential areas is “very good” or “good”, 22% state that the security of their neighbourhoods and residential areas is acceptable. In Khartoum, Omdurman, Bahri and Shareq Elneel localities, the proportion of the people who indicated that the security of their neighbourhood and residential areas is very good or good, is more than 60%.

38.849.0

36.428.5 26.3 24.9 31.6 33.4

22.815.0

14.820.3

16.711.0

9.115.6

28.0 22.631.0

27.831.5 41.8 31.6

30.6

10.5 13.4 17.8 23.5 25.5 22.2 27.6 20.4

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Karari Ombadda Omdurman Bahri ShareqElneel

Khartoum JabalAwlieya

State

Better than current situation Same as current situationWorse than current situation Don’t know/ refuse to answer

15

Graph 13: How do you evaluate the safety of your neighbourhood/residential area?

23.9 20.425.9

40.231.9

37.625.9 29.6

37 3941

36

37

40

3338

31.7 30.2 21.116.0

19.716.8

20.2

22.0

5.5 6.7 6.95.7 6.7

4.2

11.6

6.81.2 3.1 5.1 2.3 4.4 1.5

8.6 3.8

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%Don’t know/refuse to answer

Very poor

Poor

Acceptable

Good

Very good

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Section 3: Problems facing the country The respondents of the opinion poll survey of Khartoum State were given a list of problems and were asked to select the ones that they think are facing the country. The table below shows the responses in a descending order across the whole state. The results reveal that 90% of the respondents agreed that increasing prices and inflation is the major problem facing Sudan. Other problems follow in order of percentage scores; poverty (60%), financial and administrative corruption and poor services (54% each), armed conflicts (46%), divisions (geographic, ethnic, political) (44%), insecurity (40%), displaced populations/refugees (36%), social problems (29%) and external interference (29%).

Table 3: Problems facing the country- Khartoum State average answers

Problem %

Increasing prices and inflation 90

Poverty 60

Financial and administrative corruption 54

Poor services 54

Armed conflicts 46

Divisions (geographic, ethnic, political) 44

Insecurity 40

Displaced populations / refugees 36

Social problems 35

External interference 29

Others 1

Don’t know/refuse to answer 1

The table below shows in more detail how the people of the different localities assessed problems facing the country. Those that were considered problematic by the highest number of people are highlighted.

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Table 4: Problems facing the country-localities

Problem Karari Ombadda Omdurman Bahri Shareq Elneel

Khartoum Jabal

Awlieya State

increasing prices

91.6 90.4 89.9 86.4 89.5 89.5 92.2 89.8

Poverty 50.4 57.9 59.2 61.2 65.2 62.9 59.7 59.9

financial/admin corruption

52.0 52.2 55.9 49.1 54.1 64.7 51.8 54.2

poor services 47.2 55.6 56.4 45.7 54.9 60.9 56.5 54.0

armed conflict 43.4 49.5 51.3 35.6 45.1 53.8 41.3 45.6

divisions (geographic/ethnic/political)

42.2 45.7 52.8 32.7 41.8 56.5 39.6 44.3

Insecurity 35.1 40.0 41.2 31.3 39.2 46.5 43.5 39.6

displaced/ refugees

30.3 34.8 35.8 25.6 28.1 59.5 41.2 36.4

social problems 28.1 36.4 34.7 26.6 39.4 43.5 33.9 34.8

external interference

29.1 30.4 34.9 15.7 23.7 40.2 31.0 29.0

others 1.0 .1 .5 1.1 2.7 1.1 1.0 1.1

don’t know/refuse to answer

1.0 1.6 1.5 .1 1.1 .8 1.6 1.1

18

Section 4: Emigration outside Sudan Consistent with the overall negative assessment of the economic situation of Sudan and discontent of Khartoum citizens with their living conditions, the majority of them (almost 60%) stated that they either want to, or intend to, emigrate from Sudan. As the graph below shows, 39.6% of them do not want or intend to emigrate. The graph also shows that there is no serious variation between the proportion of people who want to, or intend to, emigrate in the different localities covered by the survey. Graph 13: Do you want to emigrate outside your country?

And when asked what motivates people to emigrate, 91% of them stated that it was because they want to improve their economic situation (see graph below). Graph 14: In your opinion what motivates people to emigrate?

56.4 58.0 59.3 56.1 58.4 56.0 59.9 57.7

41.2 38.9 39.1 40.8 39.1 41.9 36.9 39.6

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%Don’t know/refuse to answer

No

Yes

96.8 94.8 83.5

89.8 89.491.4 88.1 90.6

19.1 23.920.8

6.78.5

11.6 13.8 14.8

41.2 44.236.6

24.0 27.2 40.4 37.1 35.5

15.8 16.1

18.55.8 6.9 8.0 9.0 11.3

6.3 3.512.4 5.2 6.0 2.2 8.9 6.3

.4 1.5 2.5 2.7 2.1 3.1 2.4 2.1

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100% don’t know/refuse to answer

other

religiousreasons

familyreasons

education

19

Section 5: Locality services One of the main objectives of this opinion poll is to reflect the satisfaction of Khartoum State citizens with government provision of services, particularly services in particular localities. Identifying the views of the citizens of Khartoum State on the provision of government services is of great importance, especially in light of their widespread discontent with their living conditions and their strong intention to emigrate from the country. A range of indicators were designed to reflect the opinion of the surveyed population on the provision of basic services, specifically, health, education, water and electricity. The citizens of Khartoum State offered mixed assessment of their satisfaction with their localities' services. The people of Khartoum State negatively assessed the provision of government health services. As the graph below shows, 60% of the people are not satisfied with government health services, 26.2% are somewhat satisfied, and only 10% are satisfied. As the graph shows, there is no serious variation between the seven localities. Graph 15: Are you satisfied with government provided health services?

The people of Khartoum State also negatively assessed the provision of government education services. 52% of the people are not satisfied with government education services, 32% of them are not at all satisfied, 30% are somewhat satisfied and only 13.4% are satisfied. As the graph shows, in Jabal Awlieya, Khartoum, Shareq Elneel and Omdurman more than 30% of the population are not at all satisfied with the education services.

18.911.8 9.4 7.5 9.0 9.1 9.7 10.5

32.1

33.025.5

23.5 21.0 26.1 24.2 26.2

17.719.9

19.3 28.825.1 17.0 19.9

21.3

2930

4439

42 44 43 39

2.4 5.2 2.1 1.6 2.9 3.9 3.2 3.0

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Don’t know/refuse to answer

Not satisfiedat all

Not satisfied

Somewhatsatisfied

Satisfied

20

Graph 16: Are you satisfied with the education at government schools?

As the graph below shows, 36% of the citizens of Khartoum State said that the provision of water services is good, 16.9% said it is acceptable, 28.9% stated that water service provision is poor or very poor, while 12.3% stated that water services don’t exist for them. It is noticeable that water services don’t exist for 29.1% of the people of Shareq Elneel locality. For more details of other localities see the graph below. Graph 17: How do you rate the locality’s provision of the water services?

For the provision of electricity, the graph below shows that 44.5% of the citizens of Khartoum State believe that the provision of electricity services is good, 15.3% said it is acceptable, 15.2% stated that electricity service provision is poor or very poor, while 15.3% stated that electricity services don’t exist

20.2 15.3 12.5 10.9 11.0 11.1 14.2 13.4

31 3730 30 27 26

28 30

17.821.1

16.827.5

23.615.9

14.919.9

29 22

3728

3339

38 32

2.8 4.5 4.1 3.9 5.4 7.3 4.4 4.7

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Don’t know/refuse to answer

Not satisfiedat all

Not satisfied

Somewhatsatisfied

Satisfied

10.824.8

13.35.1 9.2 4.4

19.212.3

.2

.4

.3

.3

29.1

7.1

.45.83.9

5.6

13.7

9.7

20.1

25.322.9

14.77.5

7.3 11.5

12.8

22.2

21.4 14.7

14.2

17.4

14.9 19.0

23.0

12.5

19.612.5

16.940.3

31.228.2

33.4

0.119.5

20.324.1

19.8 15.8 14.0 15.76.8 2.7

10.0 11.9

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%Very good

Good

Acceptable

Poor

Very poor

Don’t know/refuse to answer

This service doesn’t exist

21

for them. It is notable that electricity services don’t exist for 39.2% of the people of Ombadda locality. For more details of other localities see the graph below. Graph 18: How do you rate the locality’s provision of electricity?

12.1

39.2

16.55.3

10.6 8.616.1 15.3

.9

1.8

4.7

6.2

22.9

11.04.7

7.8

3.6

5.3

10.1

10.1

31.4

17.97.0

7.4

19.5

13.5

22.1

19.6

15.4

10.618.1

15.3

43

2832

39

1

4139

31

20.211.4 12.4 16.8

11.3 9.4 13.9 13.5

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%Very good

Good

Acceptable

Poor

Very poor

Don’t know/refuse to answer

This service doesn’t exist

22

Section 6: Corruption Sudan is considered one of the most corrupt countries in the world where government officials are frequently involved in corrupt practices. Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index from 2013 ranks Sudan 174th out of 177 countries ranked. Therefore one of the essential issues covered in this opinion poll in Khartoum State is corruption. As the graph below shows, in total 73% of the citizens of Khartoum State stated that official and administrative corruption is spread across Sudan, 52.9% of them stated that it is very widespread, 16% said it is spread to some extent, 5% said it is spread, while 23.5% did not respond to the question. In Khartoum locality, almost 80% of the interviewed people stated that the corruption is spread across Sudan. The graph below gives more details about other localities. Graph 19: In your opinion what is the extent of the spread of financial and administrative corruption in the country?

As the graph below shows only 7.8% of the people of Khartoum State stated that the government is fighting seriously against the financial and administrative corruption, 66.2% stated that the government is not serious in fighting corruption.

50.0 48.9 53.1 49.3 50.362.1 56.9 52.9

14.9 17.719.4

18.1 17.6

14.110.2 16.0

6.0 6.85.4

5.7 4.42.7

4.3 5.0

25.6 25.1 18.7 24.3 24.4 19.027.3 23.5

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

don’t know/refuse to answernot spread

spread

spread tosome extent

very farspread

23

Graph 20: In your opinion, how serious is the government in the fight against financial and administrative corruption?

9.0 13.58.2 6.2 6.7 6.4 5.1 7.8

20.122.6

19.716.5 19.5

13.3 12.417.7

19.2

21.427.2

23.326.8

18.0 18.5

22.2

23.016.8 26.4

26.420.3

38.433.7

26.3

28.7 25.618.4

27.5 26.6 23.930.4 26.0

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Karari Ombadda Omdurman Bahri ShareqElneel

Khartoum JabalAwlieya

State

don’t know/refuse to answer

notcommittedin the least

notcommitted

committedto someextent

Committed

24

Section 7: Democracy and national dialogue This section deals with a range of indicators that aim to identify tendencies in public opinion in Khartoum State with regards to democracy through identifying the following: how the citizens of Khartoum State are defining democracy and what conditions must be met to make Sudan a democratic country. The table below illustrates the opinion of the people of Khartoum State on the requirements that must be met for a country to be a democratic. The respondents were asked to select multiple answers from the listed statements in the table below. More than 67% of the people of Khartoum State, chose “justice and equality between people”, 57% stated that “safety and security” is a requirement that must be met for a country to be democratic, and 52% stated that “improvement of economic conditions" is also a requirement that must be met for a country to be a democratic. See the table below for more details for the ratings people gave on other requirements that must be met for a country to be a democratic. Table 5: In your opinion what are the requirements that must be met for a country to be a democratic?

Locality Karari Ombadda Omdurman Bahri Shareq

Elneel Khartoum Jabal

Awlieya State

Political and civil freedoms

37.2 39.8 43.5 37.6 38.4 41.7 36.7 39.3

Justice and equality between people

62.2 67.4 70.9 70.7 71.6 61.5 63.3 67.1

Democratic governance

31.2 35.8 39.4 25.4 33.2 34.8 27.9 32.4

Independence of authorities

20.3 24.4 18.5 20.1 29.9 27.2 19.6 23.0

Safety and security 60.0 52.3 50.6 49.9 51.5 51.8 51.0 52.1

Improvement of economic conditions

63.6 61.1 53.5 52.8 60.3 57.5 56.1 57.6

Characterization of democracy through positive values

23.5 23.8 26.6 13.5 20.9 25.3 19.0 21.6

Other 1.8 .6 3.1 1.9 2.2 3.6 1.7 2.1

Don’t know/refuse to answer

7.8 11.8 11.2 8.3 8.7 16.1 18.7 11.9

Sudan faces a mix of political, economic and security challenges, all of which are probably to intensify as the election draws near. The ongoing discussions about how to make progress includes approaches such as national dialogues. These can be part of a broader political reform process that involves all groups, and addresses governance, diversity and reconciliation. The following graph and tables illustrate how citizens of Khartoum State understood and grasped the “National Dialogue” process.

25

As the graph below shows, on average 50.6% of the people of Khartoum State had never heard about the “National Dialogue”, the highest percentage of the people who heard about the “National Dialogue”, was in Omdurman (60%). Graph 21: Have you heard about the “National Dialogue” in Sudan?

The interviewed people of Khartoum State who stated that they had heard about the “National Dialogue”, were further asked if they supported it. 78% of them stated that they support the “National Dialogue” process. 22% stated they do not support it. The highest rate (90%) of the people who stated they support the “National Dialogue” is in Shareq Elneel. For more details see the graph below. Graph 22. : Do you support the “National Dialogue”?

The citizens of Khartoum State, who said that the heard about the “National Dialogue”, were further asked if they knew the goals, the participants, and which of the following objectives could pave the way for, the process. Graph nos. 23, 24 and table no 6 illustrate the interviewed people’s opinions. Graph 23 shows that 63% of the interviewed people of Khartoum State indicated that they know the goal of the “National Dialogue”, 37% stated that they do not know the goal of the “National Dialogue”,

55.7 51.159.4

42.7 45.755.1

47.0 50.6

44.3 48.940.6

57.3 54.344.9

53.0 49.4

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

No

Yes

83.2 88.475.5 81.3

89.5

60.971.9 77.9

16.8 11.624.5 18.7

10.5

39.128.1 22.1

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

No

Yes

26

although they had heard about it. In Karari locality 73% of the interviewed people stated that they know the goal of the “National Dialogue”. Graph 23: Do you know the goals of the “National Dialogue”?

As graph 24 below states, 58% of the people who had heard about the “National Dialogue”, knew who the participants are. 42% don’t know who the participants in the “National Dialogue” are. Graph 24: Do you know who the participants in the “National Dialogue” are?

The table below illustrates the opinion of the people who had heard about the “National Dialogue” on the settings that could pave the way for the “National Dialogue”. The respondents were asked to select multiple answers of the listed statements in the table below. More than 60% of them indicated that acknowledgement of diverse ethnicities citizenship is the basis of rights and duties, achieving sustainable and balanced development, working to fight political, financial and others forms of

72.982.8

61.4 64.7 67.1

47.9 51.862.7

27.117.2

38.6 35.3 32.9

52.1 48.237.3

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

No

Yes

69.979.5

52.1 57.8 57.748.5 46.2

57.5

30.120.5

47.9 42.3 42.351.5 53.8

42.5

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

No

Yes

27

corruption and emphasis on non-discrimination between citizens on the basis of race, colour, language, religion or gender, are the most important issues that could pave the way for the “National Dialogue”. 54% stated that implementing all agreements between the government and the armed movements is also an issue that could pave the way for the “National Dialogue”. See the table below for more details about the ratings from people on other issues that could pave the way for the “National Dialogue” at the state level as well as at the locality level. Table 6: In your opinion, which of the following objectives could pave the way for the “National Dialogue”?

Locality

Karari Ombadda Omdurman Bahri Shareq Elneel

Khartoum Jabal Awlieya

State

% % % % % % % %

Acknowledgement of diverse ethnicities

57.3 64.3 60.9 56.1 64.4 64.2 61.9 61.1

Citizenship is to be the basis of rights and duties

67.2 70.6 65.2 50.8 70.8 63.7 63.3 64.3

Enable different groups to express their cultural differences

46.9 50.7 44.5 29.4 49.4 60.0 48.3 47.0

Achieving sustainable and balanced development

64.5 72.0 59.6 61.4 75.3 71.6 68.8 67.1

Emphasis on decentralized governance and prevent central government interference in state affairs

36.0 44.4 35.2 23.3 41.3 51.7 43.1 39.1

Working to fight political, financial and others forms of corruption

70.0 67.5 59.8 51.9 68.3 72.1 62.2 64.4

Emphasis on non-discrimination between citizens on the basis of race, colour, language, religion or gender

65.0 75.5 55.5 42.2 57.4 72.4 74.0 62.9

Implementing all agreements between the government and the armed movements

62.5 65.4 46.5 32.2 50.0 66.4 55.5 53.9

Political pluralism 41.4 37.8 31.4 28.1 46.2 50.0 44.2 39.7

Everything that was said will not establish a ‘National Dialogue’

3.7 3.5 6.5 6.4 6.7 11.4 3.0 6.0

28

Annex

Sample size

INPUT VALUES

Parameter Value

Predicted value of indicator (in target/base population) r 0.4

Design effect deff 2

Relative margin of error at 95% confidence RME 0.1

Proportion of target/base population in total population pb 0.45

Average household size AveSize 5

Response rate RR 0.7

OUTPUT VALUES

Estimate Value

Predicted r 0.4

Confidence limits (at 95% confidence)

Upper 0.44

Lower 0.36

Number of households (Sample size): n 762

Standard error (se) 0.02

Confidence limits (95% confidence):

Upper: r * (1 + RME)

Lower: r * (1 - RME)

Sample size:

4 * r * (1-r) * deff

n = --------------------------------------------

-

(RME * r)2 * pb * AveSize * RR

Standard error (se):

(r * RME) / 2