public opinion poll bosnia and herzegovina bih statewide poll 2018... · 11 © 2015 ipsos. bosnia...

1 © 2015 Ipsos.1

Bosnia and HerzegovinaPublic Opinion Poll

APRIL-MAY 2018

METHODOLOGY

2 © 2015 Ipsos.

3 © 2015 Ipsos.

METHODOLOGY

DATA COLLECTION

• 25 April – 15 May, 2018

METHOD

• Quantitative face to face survey within households

• Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI method)

POPULATION

• Population of Bosnia and Herzegovina aged 18+

SAMPLE FRAME

• Polling station territories database (CEC)

SAMPLE SIZE

• N=2,059 (1142 in FBiH, 917 in RS, 200 boost sample in Croat majority areas)

• Data are weighted where necessary (by region, age, gender and education) in order to reflect the true population allocation according to the 2013 census

SAMPLING ERROR

• +/- 2.2% on full sample

• +/- 3.1% at entity level

SAMPLE TYPE

• Stratified sample

STRATIFICATION

• Within each entity the sample was stratified by region and settlement type

STEPS OF RANDOM SELECTION

• Step 1: Random selection of polling stations

• Step 2: Random selection of households (random route technique)

• Step 3: Random selection of respondents within HH (Kisch scheme)

4 © 2015 Ipsos.

RESEARCH RESULTS

STATEWIDEOVERVIEW

5 © 2015 Ipsos.

9%

87%

Citizens continue to see BiH moving in the wrong direction; RS respondents are slightly less pessimistic about their entity than those in FBiH.

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Bosnia and Herzegovina are moving in the right or wrong direction?

Base: Total N=2059

8%

89%

RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG DIRECTION DK/REF

16%

78%

Generally speaking, do you think that things in FBiH are moving in the right or wrong direction?

Base: FBiH Total N=1142

Generally speaking, do you think that things in RS are moving in the right or wrong direction?

Base: RS Total N=917

Statewide FBiH RS

6 © 2015 Ipsos.

Across demographic groups, citizens of BiH are fairly pessimistic about the near future.

Thinking about the next year, do you expect that your life and the lives of your family members will be better, worse or the same as today?

Base: Total N=2059

16%

30%51%

BETTER

WORSE

SAME

26%

33%

36%

25%

27%

32%

35%

Bosniak

Serb

Croat

18-29

30-44

45-59

60+

7 © 2015 Ipsos.

46%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

4%

3%

7%

11%

Unemployment

The outflow of population

Corruption

Low income

Poor economic situation

Political Situation / Politicians

Crime

Poverty / Low standard

OTHER (<2%)

DK/REF

40%

12%

7%

7%

6%

4%

4%

3%

7%

10%

Unemployment

Political Situation / Politicians

Corruption

The outflow of population

Low income

Poor economic situation

Poverty / Low standard

Divided Nations (National / Ethnic)

OTHER (<2%)

DK/REF

Pessimism is still driven by political and economic stagnation. Emigration appears to be a growing concern.

What would you name as the two biggest problems that FBiH is facing today? (first mentioned)


What would you name as the two biggest problems that RS is facing today? (first mentioned)


2017 50% 2017 55%

8 © 2015 Ipsos.

The view that politicians use ethnic tension for political gain may be softening slightly, driven by pronounced movement among Bosniaks and Serbs.

Generally speaking, do you think that politicians in BiH are more interested in taking meaningful steps to reduce ethnic tension, or are they more interested in using ethnic tension for political gain?

Base: Total N=2059

16%

77%

7% MORE INTERESTED IN REDUCING

ETHNIC TENSION

MORE INTERESTED IN USING ETHNIC

TENSION FOR POLITICAL GAIN

DK/REF

2017More interested in reducing ethnic tension: 7%More interested in using ethnic tension for political gain: 85%

9 © 2015 Ipsos.

Citizens continue to view the territorial arrangement of Bosnia and Herzegovina through an ethnic lens.

Which of the following best describes your view about the territorial arrangement of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Base: Total N=2059

42%

26%

12%

11%

8%

63%

17%

5%

13%

2%

6%

51%

27%

9%

6%

42%

9%

8%

9%

33%

Entities should be abolished

Arrangement of the state should remain unchanged

BiH should be divided into three independent states

BiH should be divided into several economic regions

Third, Croatian entity should be formed

TOTAL Bosniak Serb Croat

10 © 2015 Ipsos.

Croats and Bosniaks differ significantly on the territorial organization of the FBiH.

Which of the following statements best describes your personal view about the territorial arrangement of the Federation BiH?


45%

20%

12%

12%

11%

51%

23%

14%

5%

7%

33%

12%

7%

34%

14%

The Federation should remain one entity, but cantons should beabolished

The Federation BiH should be divided economically into several regions

The territorial arrangement of the Federation should remain unchanged

The Federation should be divided ethnically between Croats and Bosniaks

DK/REF

TOTAL BOSNIAK CROAT

11 © 2015 Ipsos.

More than half say media rarely provide accurate and impartial information. Croats are particularly distrustful.

Generally speaking, do the media in BiH provide you with accurate and impartial information?

Base: Total N=2059

10%

35%

31%

21%ALMOST ALWAYS

SOMETIMES

NOT VERY OFTEN

ALMOST NEVER

Not very often+Almost never: 52%

(Bosniak: 50%, Serb: 48%, Croat: 63%)

12 © 2015 Ipsos.

Respondents believe media disinformation exists and clearly see its negative impact.

Do you believe disinformation exists in media coverage of social, political and economic issues?/Do you think disinformation in the media causes confusion in the public about the basic facts of current events and issues?

Base: Total N=2059/1736

84%

9%

YES (DISINFORMATION

EXISTS)

NO (DISINFORMATION DOES NOT EXIST)

92%

5%

YES (DISINFORMATION

CAUSES PUBLIC CONFUSION)

NO (DISINFORMATION DOES NOT CAUSE

PUBLIC CONFUSION)

13 © 2015 Ipsos.

The public is moderately concerned about incoming migration and refugee flows through BiH.

How concerned are you about migration and refugee flows in BiH?

Base: Total N=2059

14%

25%31%

27%

2%

Very concerned Somewhat concerned

Not very concerned Not at all concerned

39%Concerned

14 © 2015 Ipsos.

More than half express general concern about foreign interference in the political affairs of BiH.

And how concerned are you about foreign interference in the political affairs of BiH?

Base: Total N=2059

22%

32%28%

14%5%

VERY CONCERNED SOMEWHAT CONCERNED

NOT VERY CONCERNED NOT AT ALL CONCERNED

56% Bosniak59% Serbs39% Croats

54%Concerned

15 © 2015 Ipsos.

RESEARCH RESULTS

BIH ACCESSION TO EU

16 © 2015 Ipsos.

Eight out of ten people in BiH support accession to the EU – including a clear majority of Serbs.

Do you personally support or oppose BiH accession to EU?

Base: Total N=2059

87%

60%

82%

11%

30%

12%

Bosniak

Serb

Croat

77% 17%

SUPPORT OPPOSE

2017 - Serb47% Support46% Oppose

17 © 2015 Ipsos.

Respondents are not satisfied with progress toward EU accession.

How satisfied are you with the progress made toward BiH EU accession?

Base: Total N=2059

8%

32%

22%

34%

Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied

Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied

8% Very satisfied 34% Very dissatisfied

18 © 2015 Ipsos.

One-quarter of BiH population doubts BiH will ever gain EU membership.

Regardless of how you just answered, do you expect BiH to become an EU member by 2025, after 2025, or do you doubt BiH will ever gain EU membership?

Base: Total N=2059

25%

37%

27%

11%

BY 2025

AFTER 2025

NEVER

DK/REF

31%

13%

35%

39%

36%

33%

23%

38%

16%

Bosniak

Serb

Croat

19 © 2015 Ipsos.

BiH citizens doubt the intentions of political leaders regarding their work on accession to the EU.

Do you believe that political leaders and parties are working in good faith to achieve EU accession?

Base: Total N=2059

6%

53%

36% 5%YES

SOME ARE/SOME ARE NOT

NO

20 © 2015 Ipsos.

Across ethnic lines, survey respondents have high expectations for EU membership.

To what degree do you believe that EU membership would improve economic conditions and life in general for BiH citizens?

Base: Total N=2059

25%

45%

17%9%

4%

Would improve a great deal Would improve somewhat

Would not improve much Would not improve at all

70%Improve

79%

55%

71%

19%

39%

25%

Bosniak

Serb

Croat

21 © 2015 Ipsos.

EU membership is not an abstraction – it is personally important for Federation residents and their families, particularly Bosniaks.

How important is it for you and your family for BiH to gain EU membership in the years ahead?


39% 39%

15%5% 2%

Very important Somewhat important

Not very important Not at all important

78%Important

82% Bosniaks69% Croats

22 © 2015 Ipsos.

RS respondents view EU accession for BiH as more important than membership for Serbia and prefer to join as part of BiH, not independently.

26%

12%

34%

22%

6%

EU membership for BiH

EU membership for Serbia

Both are equally important

Neither is important

DK/Ref

Thinking again about EU accession, which is more important to you personally: EU membership for BiH or EU membership for Serbia?/And do you think it would be better for the RS to join the EU independently, or as part of BiH?


16%

42%

17%

16%

10%

RS independently

RS as part of BiH

It makes no difference

I don't support EU membership at all

DK/Ref

23 © 2015 Ipsos.

RESEARCH RESULTS

ELECTIONS

24 © 2015 Ipsos.

Citizens (especially Croats) have grave concerns about the integrity of elections in BiH.

Which of the following statements comes closest to your view of elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Base: Total N=2059

11%

31%

52%

6%

12%

32%

52%

4%

13%

36%

42%

9%

3%

22%

67%

8%

ELECTIONS IN BiH ARETYPICALLY FREE AND

FAIR

ELECTIONS IN BiH ARETYPICALLY FREE AND

FAIR, BUT WITH SOMESHORTCOMINGS

ELECTIONS IN BiH ARENOT FREE AND FAIR

DK/REF

ALL

BOSNIAK

SERB

CROAT

25 © 2015 Ipsos.

Three-quarters of Croats believe that the electoral system does not provide adequate representation of all groups.

I am going to read you two statements about the electoral system in BiH. Please tell me which of the statements comes closer to your view.

Base: Total N=2059

29%

59%

12%

29%

62%

8%

35%

47%

18%

15%

73%

12%

The current electoralsystem provides for

adequaterepresentation of all

groups in BiH

The electoral systemshould be altered to

ensure equitablerepresentation of all

groups in BiH

DK/REF

ALL

BOSNIAK

SERB

CROAT

26 © 2015 Ipsos.

Only one-third of respondents are satisfied with the parties and lists on offer in the past few elections.

Regardless of whether you voted or what parties you may have supported in 2014 and 2016, how satisfied were you with the parties and lists you had to choose from in the past few elections?

Base: Total N=2059

6%

27% 28%33%

6%

Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied

Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied

33%Satisfied

29%

40%

FBiH

RS&Brcko

27 © 2015 Ipsos.

Interest in the election is lower than we have seen previously - fewer than half of respondents say they would certainly vote if elections were held now.

41%

23%

9%

19%

9%

I WOULDCERTAINLY VOTE

I WOULD PROBABLYVOTE

I PROBABLY WOULDNOT VOTE

I CERTAINLYWOULD NOT VOTE

DK/REF

If general elections were held next weekend, how likely is it that you would vote?

Base: Total N= 2059

2017 51%2014 53%2014 General Elections Tournout 54.5%

Bosniaks 47%Serb 40%Croat 20%

28 © 2015 Ipsos.

RESEARCH RESULTS

Federation BiH

29 © 2015 Ipsos.

The current Federation government is still not implementing policies that improve the lives of its citizens, however ratings have improved somewhat.

How would you rate the performance of the current Federation government in terms of implementing policies that improve the lives of citizens in the FBiH?


37% 33%21%

7%1% 1%

LOWEST RATING 2 3 4 HIGHEST RATING

Total rating 1-2 70%2017 84%

31 © 2015 Ipsos.

RS citizens continue to regard the performance of the current RS government as very weak.

How would you rate the performance of the current RS government in terms of implementing policies that improve the lives of citizens in the RS?


25%31% 35%

6% 3% 1%

LOWEST RATING 2 3 4 HIGHEST RATING

Total rating 1-2 56%2017 60%

32 © 2015 Ipsos.

More than one-quarter believe that leadership change would be good for RS – few believe it will make things worse.

9%

18%

41%

13%

7%

13%

Much better than the currentgoverning coalition

Somewhat better

About the same

Somewhat worse

Much worse

DK/REF

In your opinion, how would a united opposition govern RS, compared to the current governing coalition led by SNSD?/As you know, Milorad Dodikcannot seek a third term as RS president, so RS will elect a new president this year. Do you believe that this will lead to positive change in RS, do you think it will have negative results, or do you think that it will make no real difference to RS? Base: RS Total N=917

25%

16%

52%

8%

Positive change

Negative results

No real difference

DK/REF

33 © 2015 Ipsos.

We see dramatic growth in the credibility of Alliance for Change as a viable alternative to the current coalition.

I will now read a pair of statements. Please choose the one that more closely describes your opinion?


34%

39%

27%

AFC IS A CREDIBLE GOVERNING

ALTERNATIVE TO THE CURRENT

RULING COALITION IN THE RS

AFC IS NOT A CREDIBLE

GOVERNING ALTERNATIVE TO

THE COALITION OF RULING PARTIES IN

THE RS

DK/REF

Spring 2017 - 26%RS Voters 38%



34 © 2015 Ipsos.

RS voters are not interested in procedural or mechanical matters; they want policy solutions and good candidates.

36%

22%

10%

7%

5%

20%

Offer clear policy solutions for citizens' problems

Offer better qualified candidates

Have joint candidates for RS President and for BiH Presidency

Have joint candidate lists for BiH PA and RSNA

Have separate candidates and candidate lists

DK/REF

Regardless of how you currently feel about Alliance for Change, thinking ahead to the 2018 general election, what should the opposition coalition do to be a more credible option for voters?


35 © 2015 Ipsos.

Budget cuts and new revenue are seen as key to economic stability and growth in RS.

Some have said that long term economic stability and growth in RS can only happen if we cut public spending and increase government revenue. Do you agree or disagree with this statement?


30%40%

10% 8% 12%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree

Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

70%Agree

36 © 2015 Ipsos.

Reforms aimed at self-dealing and transparency have broad appeal.

Now I will read you some policies that have been proposed to balance the budget and stabilize the RS economy. Please tell me whether you think each one would be very effective, somewhat effective, not very effective or not at all effective in improving the economic situation in RS.

Base: RS N=917

58%

57%

50%

50%

45%

29%

30%

33%

32%

38%

FORBID EMPLOYMENT OF IMMEDIATE RELATIVES OF PUBLIC OFFICIALS

A RULE THAT PUBLIC EMPLOYEES CAN RECEIVE ONLY ONE SALARY FROM THE RS BUDGET

REDUCE THE NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN RS ADMINISTRATION

PUBLISH ALL BUDGET EXPENSES OVER 1000 BAM FOR RS PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS

ENSURE THAT TAXES AND BENEFITS ARE PAID BEFORE SALARIES ARE DISTRIBUTED

Very effective Somewhat effective Not very effective Not at all effective

37 © 2015 Ipsos.

Anti nepotism rules are seen as the most effective reform measure; streamlining the public payroll and ending “double dipping” are right behind.

36%

27%

24%

6%

6%

Forbid employment of immediate relatives of RS officials

Only one public salary

Reduce the number of employees in RS administration

Prevent distribution of net salaries without regular tax and

Publish budget expenses over 1000 BAM

Which 1 or 2 of these measures do you think would be MOST effective in stimulating the RS economy?


38 © 2015 Ipsos.

Citizens in all areas of RS agree that agriculture is a significant development opportunity.

41%

43%

6%

4%

6%

Strongly agree

Somewhat agree

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

DK/REF

Some say that agriculture is a great development opportunity for RS and that if properly managed, the agricultural sector could become a key source of employment, export and overall growth and development for RS. Please tell me whether you agree strongly, agree somewhat, disagree somewhat or disagree strongly with this claim?


39 © 2015 Ipsos.

Several policies proposed by AfC are considered likely to be effective in stimulating the agricultural sector.

Regardless of how you just answered, I would like to read you some measures that have been suggested to stimulate the agricultural sector in RS. Please tell me whether you think each one would be very effective, somewhat effective, not very effective or not at all effective.

Base: RS N=917

44%

42%

42%

36%

35%

36%

ESTABLISH AN EFFICIENT ACTIVITY COORDINATION SYSTEM WITH BIH LEVEL

AUTHORITIES IN ORDER TO OBTAIN AVAILABLE EU PRE-ACCESSION FUNDS.

REPLACE ANNUALLY ADOPTED AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES WITH SUBSIDIES THAT ARE SET FOR

AT LEAST FIVE YEARS.

SET THE LEVEL OF AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES AT 6% OR 7% OF RS DOMESTIC INCOME.

Very effective Somewhat effective Not very effective Not at all effective

41 © 2015 Ipsos.


48% 52%

MALE FEMALE

26%62%

12%

ELEMENTARY OR LESS SECONDARY COLLEGE/UNIVERSITY

22%

22%

25%

31%

18-29 30-44 45-59 60+

GENDER EDUCATION AGE

43 © 2015 Ipsos.

55%

45%

FBiH RS & DISTRICT BRCKO


REGIONS ENTITY

Region %

Una-Sana Canton 5.7

Tuzla Canton 8.9

Zenica-Doboj Canton 7.1

Central Bosnia Canton 7.4

Herzegovina-Neretva Canton 7.4

West Herzegovina Canton 4.3

Canton Sarajevo 8.5

Canton 10 3.1

Posavina Canton 2.3

Bosnian-Podrinje Canton 0.8

North Republika Srpska 26.5

East Republika Srpska 15.4

District Brcko 2.7

public opinion poll bosnia and herzegovina bih statewide poll 2018... · 11 © 2015 ipsos. bosnia...

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