An Infotrak Harris Poll

On Kenyans’ Voting Intentions for the August 4th Referendum

on the Proposed New Constitution

A Collaborative Effort Between Infotrak Research & Consulting &

CMD; Center for Multi party DemocracyJuly 2010

Introduction• With 11 days to the Referendum, both Yes and No camps have

upped their campaign tactics in an attempt to garner more voters into their fold. The past three weeks have seen a both camps unleashing their top brass in efforts to lure and convince Voters. The predominant “No” Zones of Eastern and Rift Valley were over the weekend transversed by the Yes team led by His Excellency the President. The No team similarly visited the Yes strongholds led by William Ruto , Retired President Moi and the Clergy. This notwithstanding, the Committee of Experts and various Civil Society groups and indeed the Media have also been carrying our civic education throughout the country.

• It is against this background that an Infotrak Harris Poll was conducted in Conjunction with Center for Multi Party Democracy; CMD.

• The fieldwork covering 2500 respondents countrywide was carried out between Friday July 16th and Monday July 19th 2010, making it the most recent Poll.

The Methodology

The Methodology

A sample of 2500 respondents was interviewed to represent the Kenyan registered voter population of 12,656,451 translating into a margin of error of -/+ 2 at 95% degree of confidence. The survey was conducted in all provinces of Kenya.

The sampling frame was developed using population proportionate to size with the registered voter distribution as the weighting factor. The sample was further split into key demographic groups i.e. by region, age and gender. The key administrative boundary was district of residence which was further split into both urban and rural.

Sampling technique adopted was purposive, random and systematic. This was done so as to ensure that that every respondent who was 18 years and above was given an equal opportunity to participate. From the same sample, specific attention was given to both male and female living in urban and rural Kenya

Fieldwork was conducted through face to face interviews

The Sampling Points

Province Region Sampling pointsNairobi Nairobi All constituencies

CoastS. W. Coast Mvita

Matuga

North Coast GarsenMalindi

EasternCentral Eastern Manyatta

N. Imenti

Lower Eastern Kitui CentralMachakos Town

CentralNyeri Nyeri Town

Kirinyaga Central

Thika KiambaaKangema

Rift Valley

North Rift Eldoret NorthTinderet

South Rift BuretiNarok North

Central Rift Nakuru TownBaringo Central

WesternKakamega Lurambi

Butere

Bungoma FunyulaKanduyi

NyanzaNyanza Central Kisumu Town East

Rangwe

South Nyanza Nyaribari ChacheMigori

North Eastern Garrissa Ijaara Dujis

The Electoral Register that guided the Sampling Frame

Have all the provinces

Province Region Voter populationNairobi Nairobi Region 1306345

CoastNorth Coast 329958South West Coast 662365

CentralNyeri Region 832681Thika Region 1119856

NyanzaNyanza central 827943South Nyanza 883802

WesternBungoma 622891Kakamega 734911

Rift ValleyNorth Rift 1162207South Rift 936190Central Rift 976339

EasternUpper Eastern 132251Central Eastern 860204Lower Eastern 1036409

North EasternGarissa Ijara Rgeion 76563Wajir Mandera 155536

Total 12656451

Margin of Error explained

Margin of error decreases as the sample size increases, but only upto a certain point.

A very small sample, such as 50 respondents, has about

a 14 percent margin of error while a sample of 1,000 has a margin of error of 3 percent.

By doubling the sample to 2,000, the margin of error only decreases from +/-3 percent to +/- 2 percent and +/-4 percent for a sample size of 4000.

This illustrates that there are diminishing returns when trying to reduce the margin of error by increasing the sample size.

A 95 percent level of confidence is usually the industry

standard.

Margin of Error Illustration

The Key Findings

Finding 1:Majority of Kenyans who have registered as voters intend to

participate in the August 4th referendum

98% of registered voters intend to participate in the August 4th referendum

Majority of those who intend to vote in the forthcoming referendum indicated that they supported reforms and therefore a new constitution

A further 30% stated that by participating in this referendum, they would in effect be exercising their democratic right

Base 2500

Base 2450

Do you intend to participate in the August 4th referendum on the proposed new constitution of

Kenya?

You have indicated that you intend to vote in the August referendum, what are your reasons?

Lack of registration documents is the main undoing for those who do not intend to participate in the forthcoming referendum

Majority of those who do not intend to vote in the forthcoming referendum cited lack of registration documents (39%)

A further 29% indicated that they do not trust the proposed new constitution

Base 50

You have indicated that you DO NOT intend to vote in the August

4th referendum, what are your reasons?

Finding 2:Approximately three in four of

Kenyans who intend to vote in the August 4th referendum are indeed

aware of the contents of the proposed new constitution of Kenya

75% of Kenyans indicated that they were aware of the General Contents of the proposed Draft Constitution. This signifies a growth of 9% in

Awareness in comparison to the 66% registered in May. In other words ¾ of Kenyans are generally aware about something contained in

the draft. They don’t have to necessarily know everything, neither does the awareness have to have stemmed from personal reading of the draft.

The awareness emanates from various sources for instance the media, friends and family, civil society, politicians and even personal reading of the draft.

Awareness has grown by 9% over the past month. This can be attributed to increased impetus in Civic Education by COE and Civil Society and campaigns by the proponents and opponents of the draft.

Are you aware of the general contents of the proposed Draft Constitution?

Awareness is generally higher amongst:

Base 2500

Awareness Explained

Approximately three quarters of Kenyans registered voters in the August 4th referendum are aware of the contents of the proposed new

constitution Majority of Kenyans who intend to vote in the August 4th referendum reported awareness

on the general contents of the proposed constitution The lowest incidences of awareness were recorded in Eastern and Rift Valley provinces

Base 2500

Variance[YES]

Nairobi

Central Nyanza Western Coast Easter

nR.

ValleyN.

Eastern Total

+3% +19% +4% +5% +6% +8% +6% +7% +9%

30% of Kenyans stated that they had actually read the Draft Constitution.

Yes, I have read the contents of the Draft Constitution…..

May June +/-%26% 30% +4%

Those who have read the draft can be described as follows:

Finding 3:

Media is still the main source of information on the contents of the proposed new

constitution of Kenya

61% of Kenyans who are aware of the contents of the proposed constitution indicated that got their information from the

Media.

Base 1837

How did you get to know the contents of the proposed new constitution? The media remains the most effective source of information on the general

contents of the draft. Other than Media Personal reading , Politicians and Religious leaders are the most important.

July 2010

May 2010

VarianceMedia Self

readPoliticia

ns Religious leaders

Family/Friends Civic education

+6% +1% +8% +7% -5% +10%

Finding 4:65% of Kenyans who intend to vote in the August 4th referendum indicated they would vote YES for

the proposed constitution of Kenya

Most Kenyans have become decisive on their voting intentions come August 4th . Approximately 10% are still undecided on

how they will vote

Majority of Kenyans who would participate in the forthcoming referendum exercise stated that they would vote YES (65%) while 25% indicated they would vote NO if the referendum was to be held today

On the other hand, the undecided constitute 10% of the survey respondents

Eastern and Rift Valley recorded the lowest incidence with regard to voting YES for the proposed new constitution

Base 2450

If the referendum to approve the proposed new constitution was to be held today, how would you

vote?

The undecided voters are increasingly reducing as they make up their minds on how they want to vote. The Yes Vote has

gained 2% since May whilst the No vote

Base 2450

Whilst the percentage of men & women who intend to vote Yes is relatively close, twice as many women (67%) than men (33%) are

still undecided

More males than females indicated that they would vote YES for the proposed new constitution of Kenya if the referendum was to be held today

Twice as many women (67%) than men (33%) are still undecided

If the referendum to approve the proposed new constitution was to be held today, how would you

vote?

Base 2450

Majority of those who would vote YES for the proposed new constitution if a referendum was held today are the youth

If the referendum to approve the proposed new constitution was to be held today, how would you

vote?

Base 2450

Voting patterns by religion

Reasons for their intended voting patterns

Reasons for voting YES Reasons for voting NO

Reasons for liking or disliking the proposed constitution

Reasons for liking the proposed new constitution

Incidence level

%Devolution of power & decentralization of resources

75

Land issues/allocation 51Equality in in paying of taxes in the public service 33

Representation of people 53Ministers not to be members of parliament/lean cabinet 5Vetting of judges in the judiciary 7

Gender equality 9Executive presidency with no prime minister 8

Dual citizenship 11

Others 2

Reasons for disliking the proposed new constitution

Incidence level

%

Legalization of abortion 52

Inclusion of Kadhi’s Courts 24

Unfair representation 50

Elimination of provincial administration 42

Limitation of land holding acreage 49

Others 4

Demographics

REGION

Base 2500

GENDER

Base 2500

AGE

Base 2500

EDUCATION LEVEL

Base 2500

LOCATION

Base 2500

About Infotrak

About Infotrak

Infotrak Research is a professional research company that was founded in 2004 following the vision of the founder to provide the Pan African Market with suitable information solutions required to sustain the needs of the ever-growing economies. Headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya, Infotrak also has offices in Uganda, Tanzania, Nigeria and field contacts in more than 12 other countries in Sub Saharan Africa.

The firm, which is currently one of the fastest growing in the region, attributes its rapid growth not only to innovation, high level of professionalism and dynamism, but also on the excellent caliber of personnel who have been described by many as “Business minds who specialize in research. Whilst Infotrak has already carved a niche in market research, the firm’s reputation in Social research has quickly gained impetus. Today, Infotrak is one of the most authoritative pollsters in Kenya, providing political opinion polling under the Infotrak Harris Poll flagship brand.

In 2007, Infotrak became a global network affiliate of Harris Interactive, the 12th largest and fastest-growing market research firm in the world. Harris Interactive is widely known for The Harris Poll, one of the longest running, independent opinion polls and for pioneering online market research methods. Harris Interactive serves clients worldwide through its United States, Europe and Asia offices, its wholly-owned subsidiaries Novatris in France and Media Transfer AG in Germany, and through a global network of independent market research firms.