2011 electoral reform referendum opinion poll

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This opinion poll was designed to gauge the views of those living in Wales of the forthcoming referendum on electoral reform on 5th May 2011 May 2011.

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  • ELECTORAL REFORM REFERENDUM OPINION POLL 2011

    APRIL 2011

    Presented by: John Hurst, Director of RMG:Clarity, Trefor House, Ocean Park, Cardiff, CF24 5RE

    Tel: 02920 435800

    E-mail: john.hurst@rmg-uk.co.uk

    Web: www.rmg-uk.co.uk

  • INTRODUCTION

    This opinion poll was designed to gauge the views of those living in Wales of the forthcoming referendum on electoral reform on 5th May 2011.

    METHODOLOGY

    The opinion poll consisted of 960 structured telephone interviews, conducted with Welsh voters between 4th April and 5th April 2011 and 44 surveys completed online within the same timeframe. This totals 1004 surveys.

    The telephone interviews were conducted at RMG:Claritys in-house CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) Unit. Respondents were contacted during the day and in the evening.

    For the telephone survey target numbers of interviews were set according to parliamentary constituency population. After interviewing, the online data was merged with the telephone data and the survey was weighted by parliamentary constituency, socio-economic group, gender, age group, household tenure and Welsh language skills in order to provide the most representative result possible.

    Full weighted and unweighted tabulations are included in this report.

    The following discussion uses the weighted results.

  • DISCUSSION

    Table 1 shows that only 31.9% of respondents thought that the government had provided them with sufficient information to make an informed decision on electoral reform. 60% thought that they had not been provided with enough information. Table 1 Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?

    %

    Yes 31.9%

    No 60.0%

    Don't know 8.1%

    Base: All respondents (997)

    Table 2 shows whether respondents intend to vote for first-past-the-post or alternative vote in the referendum. It also shows the voting intention split by whether the respondent thinks they have enough information to make a decision. This shows that overall, nearly a third of respondents (29.8%) do not know which electoral system they prefer, whilst 45.2% will vote for first-past-the-post and 25.0% for alternative vote. In this table, those with enough information appear to be significantly more likely to vote for first-past-the-post than those without enough information (54.1% against 42.1%). However, this is because of the high number of people without enough information who do not know which they will vote for. Table 2

    In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote?

    All respondents

    Those with enough information

    Those without enough information

    First-past-the-post 45.2% 54.1% 42.1%

    Alternative vote 25.0% 31.7% 22.3%

    Don't know 29.8% 14.2% 35.6%

    Base: All respondents (997)/ those who have enough information to make a decision (318)/ those who do not have enough information to make a decision (598)

    To counteract this, Table 3 shows the results with the dont know responses excluded. It is reasonable to assume that those who do not know which way they will vote will not vote in the referendum, and that this will provide a more accurate picture of voting intention.

  • Table 3

    In the referendum on electoral reform, will you vote for first-past-the-post, or alternative vote? (Excluding Dont know)

    All respondents

    Those with enough information

    Those without enough information

    First-past-the-post 64.4% 63.1% 65.4%

    Alternative vote 35.6% 36.9% 34.6% Base: All respondents (700)/ those who have enough information to make a decision (273)/ those who do not have enough information to make a decision (385)

    64.4% of respondents will vote for first-past-the-post, whilst 35.6% will vote for alternative vote. Removing the dont know responses, it is clear that whether the respondents think they have been provided with enough information to make a decision has remarkably little impact on voting intention. 36.9% of those with enough information said they will vote for alternative vote compared to 34.6% of those without enough information. Whilst this may be indicative, the difference is not statistically significant. Taken together, this shows that a large section of the population do not know how they will vote on 5th May. However, it also shows that those who are more likely to vote in the referendum (i.e. those with an opinion one way or the other) appear to have made their decision without the need for any information from government.

  • WEIGHTED TABULATIONS

  • Base: All respondents RefusedD/EC2C1A/B FemaleMale

    GenderSEG

    Base: All respondents

    Yes

    No

    Don't know

    9.5%6.6%16.6%9.8%10.2%6.7%4.9%8.1%

    50315242023981

    61.3%58.4%55.9%54.8%60.0%64.1%59.6%60.0%

    32527316131119219111598

    29.2%35.0%27.5%35.3%29.8%29.2%35.5%31.9%

    1541648855910066318

    100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%

    52946729240199342186997

    Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?

    (c

    Refused65 years or above55 - 64 years45 - 54 years35 - 44 years25 - 34 years18 - 24 years Other

    Rented from Council or Housing

    Association

    Rented from private landlordOwner occupied

    TenureAge

    Base: All respondents

    Yes

    No

    Don't know

    26.9%9.3%5.0%7.3%10.2%8.9%5.7%9.9%6.2%9.1%10.5%

    9103592361315753

    49.9%56.9%67.4%60.4%59.3%57.1%60.8%61.6%58.4%68.2%79.3%

    1762344851223313696643521

    23.2%33.9%27.5%32.3%30.5%34.0%33.6%28.4%35.4%22.7%10.1%

    837142596139754439123

    100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%

    3510950803204092241551105127

    Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?

    (c

    2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

  • No skills in Welsh

    Other combination of

    skills

    Speaks reads and writes

    Welsh

    Speaks and reads but does not write Welsh

    Speaks but does not read or write Welsh

    Understands spoken Welsh

    only

    Welsh Language Skills

    Base: All respondents

    Yes

    No

    Don't know

    7.8%2.7%8.0%9.4%22.9%8.1%

    52112267

    59.9%65.8%60.3%66.0%44.0%61.0%

    3992593141254

    32.3%31.5%31.6%24.5%33.1%30.9%

    21612495927

    100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%

    66738155212689

    Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?

    (c

    Don't know10 - Certain to vote987654321 - Not going to

    vote

    Likelihood to vote (1 is 'Not going to vote' and 10 is 'Certain to vote')

    Base: All respondents

    Yes

    No

    Don't know

    18.1%6.6%5.3%7.0%7.4%5.1%15.7%.0%12.8%6.4%22.2%

    34226221001112

    67.9%58.0%60.8%60.0%75.8%70.0%61.9%100.0%48.7%79.8%50.8%

    1037024522523381231128

    14.0%35.4%33.9%33.0%16.8%24.9%22.4%.0%38.5%13.8%27.0%

    22271329681403215

    100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%

    1463940873333621271355

    Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?

    2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

  • Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgend

    Brecon and RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfon

    Alyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon

    Constituency

    Base: All respondents 28272726232321261922997

    Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?

    (c

    GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd WestClwyd SouthCeredigionCarmarthen

    West and South Pembrokeshire

    Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

    Cardiff WestCardiff South and Penarth

    Constituency

    Base: All respondents 2422242226252426282834

    Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?

    (c

    RhonddaPreseli PembrokeshirePontypriddOgmoreNewport WestNewport EastNeathMontgomeryshi

    reMonmouthMerthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLlanelliIslwyn

    Constituency

    Base: All respondents 222526242522282025242723

    Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?

    (c

    Ynys MnWrexhamVale of GlamorganVale of ClwydTorfaenSwansea WestSwansea East

    Constituency

    Base: All respondents 20242724263427

    Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?

    (c

    2011 Electoral Reform Referendum Opinion Poll - Weighted Tabulations

  • Base: All respondents Cardiff NorthCardiff CentralCaerphillyBridgend

    Brecon and RadnorshireBlaenau GwentArfon

    Alyn and DeesideAberconwyAberavon

    Constituency

    Base: All respondents

    Yes

    No

    Don't know

    10.0%10.5%6.3%6.8%12.0%3.9%.0%4.6%10.0%.0%8.1%

    332231012081

    53.7%51.0%64.7%56.6%49.8%67.0%60.0%46.1%67.8%61.4%60.0%

    15141815121513121313598

    36.3%38.5%29.0%36.6%38.1%29.1%40.0%49.3%22.2%38.6%31.9%

    10108109791348318

    100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%

    Q3b. Do you think that the government has provided you with enough information to make a decision on electoral reform?

    (c

    GowerDwyfor MeirionnyddDelynCynon ValleyClwyd West

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