(muigwithania.com)opinion poll on constitution(april 2010)

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  • 8/9/2019 (Muigwithania.Com)Opinion poll on Constitution(April 2010)

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    2010. Synovate Ltd. All rights reserved.

    The concepts and ideas submitted to you herein are the intellectual property ofSynovate Ltd. They are strictly of confidential nature and are submitted to you underthe understanding that they are to be considered by you in the strictest of confidenceand that no use shall be made of the said concepts and ideas, includingcommunication to any third party without Synovates express prior consent and/orpayment of related professional services fees in full.

    Steadman now Synovate

    MINI-SPEC

    REFERENDUM

    April 2010 Report

    Date: 24th April 2010

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    Methodology

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    2SPEC April 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate

    POLL METHODOLOGY

    Sample Size 2,003

    Margin of error +/- 2.2%

    Target population Kenya adult aged 18years and above

    Sample distribution Nationally representative

    Data collection methodology Computer Aided TelephoneInterviewing (CATI)

    Survey field dates 21st 23rd April 2010

  • 8/9/2019 (Muigwithania.Com)Opinion poll on Constitution(April 2010)

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    3SPEC April 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate

    How important do you think it is for Kenya to have a newconstitution?

    Base: 2003(All respondent)

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    4SPEC April 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate

    How much do you know about the draft constitution?

    Base: 2003(All respondent)

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    6/225SPEC April 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate

    How much do you know about the draft constitution? by Province

    Base: 2003(All respondent)

  • 8/9/2019 (Muigwithania.Com)Opinion poll on Constitution(April 2010)

    7/226SPEC April 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate

    How much do you know about the draft constitution? by Setting & Gender

    Base: 2003(All respondent)

  • 8/9/2019 (Muigwithania.Com)Opinion poll on Constitution(April 2010)

    8/227SPEC April 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate

    How much do you know about the draft constitution? by Level of Education

    Base: 2003(All respondent)

  • 8/9/2019 (Muigwithania.Com)Opinion poll on Constitution(April 2010)

    9/228SPEC April 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate

    Who has influenced your opinion on draft constitution themost?

    Base: 2003(All respondent)

  • 8/9/2019 (Muigwithania.Com)Opinion poll on Constitution(April 2010)

    10/229SPEC April 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate

    Based on what you know about the draft constitution, isthere anything at all that you do not like or support?

    Base: 1729(Those know something about thedraft constitution) .

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    % Saying Yes

    Based on what you know about the draft constitution, isthere anything at all that you do not like or support? ByProvince

    Base: 1729 (Those know something about thedraft constitution).

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    Based on what you know about the draft constitution, isthere anything at all that you do not like or support?

    Base: 1267 (Those who support the draft constitution in thereferendum).

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    Do you support the inclusion of Kadhi courts in the draftconstitution?

    Base: 2003(All respondent)

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    Do you think Christian leaders are justified to run a 'No'campaign in regards to the draft constitution?

    Base: 2003(All respondent)

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    14SPEC April 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate

    How would you vote in the referendum on the draftconstitution?

    Base: 2003(All respondent)

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    15SPEC April 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate

    How would you vote in the referendum on the draftconstitution? by Knowledge of Content.

    Base: 2003(All respondent)

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    16SPEC April 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate

    How would you vote in the referendum on the draftconstitution? by Province

    Base: 2003(All respondent)

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    17SPEC April 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate

    What is the main reason you havent made up your mind?

    Base: 376(Those still Undecided)

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    18SPEC April 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate

    The target population for this survey was all Kenyan adults aged 18 and above (voting

    age). A sample size of 2,003 respondents was drawn, using a 35:65 urban to rural ratio.

    The margin of error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this polls sample

    size is +/- 2.2 % margin at 95% confidence level. This sample size is large enough tomake reliable estimates on the target population opinion. The fieldwork for this survey

    was conducted between 21st-23th April 2010.

    Data were collected through Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI). CATI is

    a call-centre approach towards survey interviewing, and consists of two systems: (1) a

    computer system (both hardware and software) for administering electronic

    questionnaires, and (2) a telephone system for contacting the respondents. The

    advantage of this methodology is that it is fast and accurate with responses entered into

    computers as the phone interviews were being conducted.

    POLL METHODOLOGY

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    19SPEC April 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate

    To administer SPEC survey on CATI, a database of 50,000 Kenyans aged 18+ wasused. This database has been accumulated over time by Steadman Synovate (andis continuing to be augmented). In this database, comprising the sampling frame,respondent information such as demographics and geographical location was

    collected, including ownership of/access to mobile phones, allowing thoserespondents to be contacted by this (CATI) method. To achieve the sample for thisopinion polls, a randomized multi-stage stratified design using probabilityproportional to size (PPS) on this database was used. Doing this ensuredgeographical representation, i.e., explicitly in terms of province and setting(urban/rural) to match the sample structure of previous polls and implicitly reflectingthe distribution of population over Kenyas districts.

    During the interview process, those who were not reached at the first attempt (eitherbecause the number was busy or the call did not go through), automaticappointments/call backs were programmed by the CATI software. In the event thatno contact was made after 5 attempts on different days and times, this number wassubstituted.

    POLL METHODOLOGYContinued

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    The data collection involved the use of an electronic semi-structured questionnairehaving both open and closed-ended questions. The survey questions were structured

    so as to allow for a broad range of opinion-options, including no opinion. This

    eliminates bias in the way the questions are asked, and responses captured.

    Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The CATI

    Supervisors made a minimum of 15% back-checks to ascertain whether the calls

    were actually made and if the responses given were correct.

    POLL METHODOLOGY

    Continued (II)

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    21SPEC April 2010 Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate

    Thank You For YourAttention.

    Our Curiosity Is All Yours.