Prospects for the Season Ahead

Andrew HoldingChairman, British Onions

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The World of Onions

The Market for Onions◦ Population◦ Consumption

Production◦ World◦ Europe◦ UK

2017 Crop

Market influences

Future Challenges

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World Population

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World Population now more than 7.5bnNow we add a billion every 12 – 15 yearsThe UN estimates a population of nearly 9.8bn by 2050

UK Population

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Predicted to reach 75 million 2040

World Onion Consumption

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World Onion Consumption / Personkg

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Growing Consumption

World Production of Onions

2nd largest vegetable crop (ha)◦Production in more counties than any other vegetable

Almost 4,500,000 ha

Global Production◦Doubled in last 10 years

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World Onion Production

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million tonnes

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World Onion Production

China 23.5

India 16.3

USA 3.3

Iran 2.3Russia 2.1

Egypt 2.0

Turkey 2.0Nigeria 1.6

Brazil 1.5

Mexico 1.3

Holland 1.3

Algeria 1.2Ukraine 1.2

Spain 1.1Sudan 1.0

UK 0.5

Australia0.3

NZ 0.3

Other 24.5

Total c88 million tonnes

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World Onion Production

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World Trade in Onions (selected Trade flows)

© AMI 2017 WWW.AMI-INFORMIERT.DEThe World's Finest

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% World Export Value

World Onion Exports 2016

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Onion Production European Union 28

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Source AMI

1,099 1,191 1,0601,234 1,105

1,308 1,188 1,1231,334

1,1081,450 1,303

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2,3172,330 2,510

2,4882,447

2,9252,628

2,528

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2,805 2,771

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017v

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lands*

Spain

Poland

OtherEU

Onion Production European Union 28

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The UK Market

800,000 T

Processing 260

Wholesale Food Service 260

Supermarkets 280

800 thousand tonnes

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UK Production & ImportsThousand tonnes

UK Production c450

Chile 5

NZ 13

Egypt 29 Rest 30

Poland 35

Spain 137

Netherlands 159

800 thousand tonnes

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UK Onion Area Ha 1988-2017

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Ha Linear (Ha)

UK Ha Bulb Onions

2017 Crop – Yield influencers – the weatherDrilling

◦ Started early – good conditions

◦ April very dry – irrigation required for establishment in some areas

◦ Variable emergence

Growing◦ Hot spell late June

◦ Crop advances quickly, Increased stress, Bulbing initiated

◦ July dull and cooler – crop slows

◦ August – stress in some places, Thrips, most crops maturing OK

Harvest◦ Early crops harvest well

◦ Harvest extended by rain interruptions finishing end October

Storage◦ Some incidence of Fusarium, Mild Staining

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UK Gross Output Tonnes – 2007-2017

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

• Crop area similar to 2017 - down - 0.75%

• Crop yields variable up - 6.8% on 2016

• Gross output up, likely similar nett output

• Total output maybe around - 456,000 tonnes 24,000 tonnes up on 2017 – + 5%

• Bulb size variable (both large and small)

• Quality Moderate, generally smaller bulbs

• Keeping quality - most crop well matured at harvest

2017 UK Crop – Summary

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2017 / 2018 Prospect influencers

•European – High volume of crop again across Europe at approx. 6 million tonnes

•Netherlands – good export volumes so far this year outside EU

•Spain - Very hot spell, smaller bulb sizes

•Prices across Europe generally lower than this time last year

•Exchange rates

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Exchange Rate (5 year)

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Exchange Rate (1 year)

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Onion RPI since 1971

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Onion RPI – last 10 years

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Onion RPI – last 5 years

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Conclusions for 2017 – 18 UK Crop

Volume slightly up

Quality OK although there are potential problems

Market growing in volume◦ UK Population continues to grow

◦ Consumption continues to increase

Market Price static / falling prices◦ Retail environment remains extremely competitive

Costs increasing (Energy, Labour etc..)

Increased cost of imports – longer UK season

Pricing◦ Supply vs demand – Situation in Europe

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Future Challenges

Brexit – uncertainty◦ Stability of exchange rates – impact on cost of imports

◦ Impact on migration, labour availability & future population growth

◦ Support for agriculture / PO’s – impact on investment

Loss of actives

Rising input costs◦ Energy

◦ Labour – living wage, availability

Continued competitive market

UK production c50% of consumption

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Thank you

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