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Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s.Copyright (c) 2008 Standard & Poor’s, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Apres la Grèce, comment se présente le financement des dettes publiques?
IFRI Jeudi 25 mars 2010Jean-Michel SixChef économiste EuropeStandard & Poor’[email protected]
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Emissions Souveraines en 2010
European Sovereign 2010 Net Borrowing
-50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Ireland 2009
Ireland 2010
P ortugal 2009
P ortugal 2010
Belgium 2009
Belgium 2010
Austria 2009
Austria 2010
P oland 2009
P oland 2010
Greece 2009
Greece 2010
Turkey 2009
Turkey 2010
Netherlands 2009
Netherlands 2010
Russia 2009
Russia 2010
Italy 2009
Italy 2010
Germany 2009
Germany 2010
Spain 2009
Spain 2010
France 2009
France 2010
U.K. 2009
U.K. 2010
Net LT borrowing
Increase in ST Debt
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2009: Global Bond Demand and Supply
$7
$6
$5
$4
$3
$2
$1
$0
2009 2009 –– DemandDemand=$6.3 tr.=$6.3 tr.
1.8
0.3
0.8
0.4
1.0
2.0
Other
Insurance +PensionRetail Bond FundsFX reservesBanksQE
Agencies, Supra, Muni etc: 0.6
$tr
Governments: 3.0
Corporates inclGvt guaranteed: 1.5
Securitized: 0.4
2009 2009 –– SupplySupply= = $5.5tr.$5.5tr.
Source: JP Morgan, BarCap, S&P Research
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2010: Global Bond Demand and Supply Forecast
$7
$6
$5
$4
$3
$2
$1
$0
1.8
0.3
0.60.4
Other
FX ReservesBanksQE
0.3
Insurance +Pension
$tr Agencies, Supra, Muni etc: 0.45 Corporates incl
Gvt guaranteed:0.97
Securitized: 0.2
Government: 3.1
2010 2010 –– DemandDemand= $3.4tr.= $3.4tr.
2010 2010 –– SupplySupply= $4.7tr.= $4.7tr.
Source: JP Morgan, BarCap, S&P Research
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Les Risques de Refinancement: Ratio Stock de dette a CT+ Dette LT venant a maturité / PIB
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0
Belgium
Italy
Ireland
Portugal
France
Turkey
Iceland
Netherlands
Hungary
Greece
Romania
Malta
Spain
Sweden
Poland
2010
2009
En pourcentage du PIB
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Impact d’une hausse de 3% des taux d’interet sur le service de la dette (exprimé en % du PIB)
Annual cost of 3pp rise in interest rates
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
% o
f G
DP
p.a
.
2010 2010-2015
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This report was prepared by Standard & Poor’s Fixed Income Risk Management Services group. This group is analytically and editorially independent from any other analytical group at Standard & Poor’s, including Standard & Poor’s Ratings.
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