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  • Slide 1
  • Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Copyright 2010 Standard & Poors Financial Services LLC, a subsidiary of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Regina Nunes Presidente Standard & Poors Brasil O Brasil no Contexto Internacional: A Viso de uma Agncia de Rating
  • Slide 2
  • 2. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Agenda O que so ratings de crdito soberano? A elevao do Brasil ao grau de investimento. Metodologia dos ratings soberanos Panorama econmico global & regional Brasil e seus pares
  • Slide 3
  • 3. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. O que so ratings de crdito soberano? Os ratings soberanos da S&P SO: Nossa avaliao sobre a capacidade e a disposio de um governo soberano para honrar, completa e pontualmente, o servio de sua dvida. Uma estimativa comparativa, de abrangncia global, da probabilidade de default. Foca-se em fundamentos de mdio prazo, ao longo de ciclos de crescimento, de taxas de juros, de commodities e polticos. Os ratings soberanos da S&P NO SO: Ratings de risco-pas ou rankings de investimento de pases. No so uma recomendao de compra ou venda de um ttulo, ou um prognstico sobre a volatilidade de um ttulo.
  • Slide 4
  • 4. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Escala Global x Escala Nacional de Ratings Escala GlobalGrau de InvestimentoAAA BBB- Grau EspeculativoBB+ SD Dvida em moeda local, moeda estrangeira, +/- em cada categoria de rating, perspectiva de ratings Escala Nacional Brasilbr+Rating Mxicomx+Rating Rssiaru+Rating Nota: As escalas nacionais no so comparveis entre si nem com a escala global.
  • Slide 5
  • 5. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Ratings atribudos pela Standard & Poors AAA AA A BBB BB+ B CCC CC C SD/D BBB- AAA: Melhor qualidade de crdito D ou SD: DEFAULT nica categoria no prospectiva BB+/BBB-: Diviso entre o GRAU DE INVESTIMENT e o GRAU ESPECULATIVO: Fontes adequadas para honrar o servio da dvida Rising star Falling Angel
  • Slide 6
  • 6. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Ratings de crdito soberano da S&P 124 governos soberanos avaliados em todo o mundo. 26 governos soberanos avaliados na Amrica Latina e Regio do Caribe Os ratings medem a posio creditcia relativa de um governo em comparao quela de seus pares e de outros emissores globais.
  • Slide 7
  • 7. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Ratings soberanos: Amrica Latina e Caribe (Maio de 2010) Rating: Moeda estrangeira / Moeda local Perspectiva/CreditWatch dos Ratings: Estvel, Positiva, Negativa Chile A+/AA Aruba A-/A- Bahamas BBB+/BBB+ Trinidad & Tobago A/A+ Barbados BBB/BBB+ Mxico BBB/A Montserrat BBB-/BBB- Brasil BBB-/BBB+ Peru BBB-/BBB+ Colmbia BB+/BBB+ Panam BB+/BB+ Costa Rica BB/BB+ Guatemala BB/BB+ El Salvador BB/BB Uruguay BB-/BB- Venezuela BB-/BB- Suriname B+/BB- Honduras B/B Repblica Dominicana B/B Belize B/B Paraguai B/B Bolvia B/B Argentina B- /B- Granada B-/B- Jamaica B-/B- Equador CCC+/CCC+
  • Slide 8
  • 8. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Cenrio econmico mundial
  • Slide 9
  • 9. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Amrica Latina apresentar uma recuperao slida em 2010 Recuperao de 4,8% em 2010, aps contrair-se 1,9% em 2009 Mercados emergentes vo liderar o crescimento global. Perspectivas econmicas para os EUA e Europa comparativamente mais fracas Preos favorveis para as commodities Retomada dos fluxos de capital Pases com fortes dinmicas de demanda domstica e/ou com vnculos comerciais com a sia devem se sair melhor. Aumento de inflao e taxas de referncia da poltica monetria comeam a apertar Poltica fiscal ainda se mantm expansiva em 2010, mas mais moderada do que em 2009
  • Slide 10
  • 10. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Contrao econmica limitada e uma retomada slida ao crescimento
  • Slide 11
  • 11. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Taxas de crescimento dos pases e perspectivas inflacionrias *Dados oficiaise-estimativa 20062007200820092010e2011e ARGENTINA PIB Real8.58.76.80.94.53.5 Preos ao Consumidor*10.98.88.66.325.020.0 BRASIL PIB Real4.05.75.1(0.2)6.04.7 Preos ao Consumidor4.13.75.74.45.24.9 CHILE PIB Real4.6 3.7(1.5)4.55.0 Preos ao Consumidor3.44.48.81.42.42.5 COLMBIA PIB Real6.97.52.50.43.54.2 Preos ao Consumidor4.35.67.04.23.04.0
  • Slide 12
  • 12. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Taxas de crescimento dos pases e perspectivas inflacionrias 20062007200820092010e2011e MXICO PIB Real4.93.31.5(6.5)4.23.5 Preos ao Consumidor3.73.96.53.65.04.2 PANAM PIB Real8.512.110.82.44.56.5 Preos ao Consumidor2.54.38.72.43.03.5 PERU PIB Real7.78.99.80.95.5 Preos ao Consumidor2.01.85.83.11.02.5 VENEZUELA PIB Real9.98.24.8(3.3)(1.0)4.0 Preos ao Consumidor13.718.731.028.038.035.0
  • Slide 13
  • 13. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. 3T084T081T092T093T094T09 Argentina1.5(0.9)(0.4)0.20.01.9 Brasil1.4(3.5)(0.9)1.41.72.0 Chile(0.8)(2.5)(0.7)(0.1)1.61.4 Colmbia0.4(1.5)0.10.80.41.1 Mxico(0.1)(1.9)(6.9)0.32.52.0 Peru2.5(0.6)(1.8)(1.2)3.33.2 Crescimento real do PIB trimestral em relao ao trimestre anterior (S.A.) Fim da recesso no segundo ou terceiro trimestre de 2009
  • Slide 14
  • 14. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. exceto na Venezuela Crescimento real do PIB Trimestral em relao ao ano anterior 3T084T081T092T093T094T09 Argentina6.94.12.0(0.8)(0.3)2.6 Brasil7.10.8(2.1)(1.6)(1.2)4.3 Chile5.20.7(2.1)(4.5)(1.4)2.1 Colmbia3.1(1.4)(0.4)(0.3) 2.9 Mxico1.6(1.1)(7.9)(10.0)(6.1)(2.3) Panam10.28.13.32.10.83.5 Peru10.76.41.9(1.2)(0.6)3.4 Venezuela3.83.50.5(2.6)(4.6)(5.8)
  • Slide 15
  • 15. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Exposio a commodities geralmente alta
  • Slide 16
  • 16. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Preos das commodities Fontes: JPMorgan, Reuters/Jefferies, e Bloomberg.
  • Slide 17
  • 17. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Normalizao dos mercados de capital local e global Vasto volume de emisses globais por parte de governos e setor privado latino-americanos. Emprstimos bancrios no mercado domstico recuperando-se lentamente em relao estagnao de 2009. Exceo o Brasil, com um volume robusto de emprstimos liderado pelos bancos controlados pelo governo. Fluxos de capital, atrados pelas perspectivas de crescimento favorveis e pela combinao de poltica fiscal e monetria, contriburam para a valorizao das moedas locais.
  • Slide 18
  • 18. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Bond Spreads: EMBIG v. Amrica Latina Fontes: JPMorgan e Bloomberg. LatAm EMBIG EMBIG
  • Slide 19
  • 19. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Bond Spreads LatAm EMBIG EMBIG Fontes: JPMorgan e Bloomberg.
  • Slide 20
  • 20. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Bond Spreads LatAm EMBIG EMBIG Fontes: JPMorgan e Bloomberg.
  • Slide 21
  • 21. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Poltica monetria deve ficar mais restritiva Brasil Mxico Colmbia Peru Chile
  • Slide 22
  • 22. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. ndices de inflao em ascenso IPC Anual (%) 2009 2010 SetOutNovDezJanFevMarAbr Argentina 6.15 6.54 7.06 7.69 8.24 9.12 9.6610.21 Brasil 4.34 4.17 4.22 4.31 4.59 4.83 5.17 5.26 Chile* (1.08) (1.94)(2.27)(1.38) (1.32) 0.26 0.30 0.92 Colmbia 3.21 2.72 2.37 2.00 2.10 2.09 1.84 1.98 Mxico 4.89 4.50 3.86 3.57 4.46 4.83 4.97 4.27 Panam 0.49 0.73 1.39 1.89 3.10 2.96 2.70 Peru 1.20 0.71 0.29 0.25 0.44 0.84 0.76 Venezuela 28.90 28.93 28.56 26.91 26.87 27.01 28.20 31.86 *Srie histrica do Chile apresen