kevin anderson research director tyndall centres energy programme university of manchester 25 th...
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Kevin AndersonResearch director
Tyndall Centre’s energy programme University of Manchester
25th July 2008
UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions and the EU ETS
Based on research by Kevin Anderson & Alice Bows
Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering
My position …
• Ambivalent about flying, driving, nuclear
power etc.
• Concerned about climate change… and the science is very clear here - we need an urgent & radical reduction in our carbon dioxide emissions if we are to “avoid dangerous climate change”
Talk outline
The Climate Change Context
What is dangerous climate change?
Reframing the debate … from long term targets to emission pathways
“It’s energy demand stupid”
The Critical role of Aviation (& shipping …)
Aviation growth within a low carbon pathway?
Responding to the challenge … the EU ETS – too little too late?
The Climate Change Context
What is dangerous climate change?
UK & EU define this as 2C
Links to total quantity of CO2 in atmosphere- measured in parts-per-million by volume (ppmv)
Currently 380ppmv (~430 CO2e) & increasing 2-3ppmv p.a. -
280ppmv before industrial revolution
Still feasible to keep below 450ppmv CO2 (~500 CO2e) - i.e. 70% chance of exceeding 2C 50% chance of exceeding 3C
What are the ‘correct’ emission targets for 2C ?
UK & EU have long term reduction targets- e.g. UK’s 60% reduction in CO2 by 2050
But CO2 stays in atmosphere for approx. 100years
Hence, today’s emissions add to yesterdays & will be added to by tomorrows
So, focus on long-term targets is very misleading
the final % reduction in carbon has little
relevance to avoiding dangerous climate change
(e.g. 2C)
Put bluntly …
What is important are the cumulative emissions of carbon
How does this scientifically-credible
way of thinking, alter the challenge
we face?
A bank-account analogy
We know:
.. how much money we have in the bank between 2000-2050 (the carbon budget)
~ 4.8 billion tonnes of carbon
between 2000-2050
the UK’s budget is
For a 30% chance of “avoiding dangerous climate change”
1. What are the emissions between 2000 & today?
2. What emissions are we locked into in the
immediate future?
From this two questions arise
… emissions between 2000-2006
were
~ 1.2 billion tonnes of carbon… i.e. we’ve used ¼ of our permitted
emissions for 50 years in around 6 years!
Answer 1
Looking at this graphically …
Answer 2
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012
Plot data from 2000 to 2006
UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012
Plot data from 2000 to 2006Dip due to September 11th
UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012
What about the next 6 years …
with more aviation & shipping
UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012
… emissions are likely to rise
UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012
4.8 billion tonnesCarbon
in the bank
But we only have
UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012… locking the UK into dramatic
annual carbon reductions from
around 2012-2032
UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012
~ 9% p.a. reduction
UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
What does this pathway say about
emission policies ?
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012
mos
t em
issio
ns
are
relea
sed
in
next
15
yrs
2006
UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012
demand
supply&
demand
2006
UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
The Critical Role of Aviation Emissions
… how does aviation fit into this
pathway?
UK aviation trends 1990 – 2005
Year
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Inde
x of
act
ivity
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
UK aviation trends 1990 – 2005
Year
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Inde
x of
act
ivity
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4CAA Terminal passengers
UK aviation trends 1990 – 2005
Year
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Inde
x of
act
ivity
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4CAA Terminal passengersCO2 emissions from aviation
UK aviation trends 1990 – 2005
September 11th events
impact growth
mean annual growth
7% pa
7% pa
Continuation of old trends
Year
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Inde
x of
act
ivity
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4CO2 emissions from aviation
UK aviation trends 1990 – 2005
~11 MtC2006
Aviation CO2 is ~7% of UK emissions
over ½ that from cars
and growing much faster
Looking at this growth graphically …
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012
11 MtC
2006
Aviation within UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012
11 MtC
2006
• if emissions grow at 5% until 2012(30% lower than historical mean)
• reducing to 3% from 2012-2050 (60% lower than historical mean)
Aviation within UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012
15MtC2012
Aviation within UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012
17MtC2012
25MtC2030
Aviation within UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012
25MtC2030
over 60% of UK emissions
15MtC2012
Aviation within UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
Carbon trajectories
Year
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ca
rbo
n e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
s curve from 2012Alternatively, if 7% continues until 2030…
56MtC2030
Aviation within UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change”
… and this doesn't include ‘uplift
factors’
Omitting aviation negates the value
of emission targets
Many problems for aviation:
- Long lifetime of aircraft (2nd hand market)
- Kerosene lock-in for 30-60 years (bio-kerosene?)
- No rapidly penetrating step change technology
- Airport expansion stimulates unsustainable growth
- Additional climate warming effects
Interim conclusions
… and then there’s shipping
Responding to the Challenge:EU ETS – too little too late?
Principal mechanism proposed for Aviation
meeting its climate change challenge is the
price signal arising from EU ETS
Tyndall examined the price signal for a suite of Aviation-
ETS scenarios
(“Aviation in a Low Carbon EU” - www.tyndall.ac.uk)
… used a set of ‘what if’ assumptions:
range of carbon prices
€50, €100 & €300 per tonne of CO2
applied over different time frames2012-2016; 2017-2030; 2031-2050
a range of baselines 1990, 2000 & 2005
Assume all costs are passed onto passengers …
Carbon price
London – Barcelona
London - Washington
London - Australia
€50-€100 €2-€15 €10-€60 €40-€120
Carbon supplement per passenger at start of ETS
Carbon price
London – Barcelona
London - Washington
London - Australia
€300 €15-€40 €70-€155 €140-€310
Carbon supplement per passengerby 2017
Aviation conclusions
Today’s aviation emissions are significant
Current aviation growth cannot be reconciled with the 2°C commitment
… little/no aviation growth is viable in a 450ppmv carbon budget
Moratorium on airport expansion prior to including aviation within EU ETS
Aviation is very likely to remain a ‘privileged’ sector
An order of magnitude increase in carbon price is necessary
An early baseline is essential
Indirect issues must be considered
Additional & substantial flanking instruments must be introduced
To conclude
… and finally
“We delude ourselves if our aspirations for a 2°C future
resides substantially in the current framing of the EU ETS and
the low-carbon technologies and practices that they may
engender. Whilst technology undoubtedly has an important
medium- and long-term role to play in reducing the carbon
intensity of aviation, it is negligent and irresponsible not to
engage with the sector’s short-term emissions growth. The
urgency with which the industry must make the transition to a
low carbon pathway leaves no option, but to instigate a radical
and immediate programme of demand management.”
… finally, P.40 of report states
… could high oil prices drive this change ?
Kevin AndersonResearch director
Tyndall Centre’s energy programme University of Manchester
25th July 2008
UK Climate Change Targets:Aviation emissions and the EU ETS
Based on research by Kevin Anderson & Alice Bows
Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering
End