Kepner-TregoeKepner-TregoeA systematic problem solvingA systematic problem solving

& decision making method& decision making method

Continuous Improvement FacilitatorsContinuous Improvement FacilitatorsNovember 17, 2006November 17, 2006

The New Rational Manager by Charles H. Kepner & Benjamin B. Tregoe

Think of a ProblemThink of a Problem

One that you are currently experiencing in your jobOne that you are currently experiencing in your jobor one that you have experienced in the past.or one that you have experienced in the past.

Write it down.Write it down.

The Kepner-Tregoe ToolThe Kepner-Tregoe Tool

Situation AnalysisSituation Analysis Problem AnalysisProblem Analysis Decision AnalysisDecision Analysis Potential Problem (Opportunity) AnalysisPotential Problem (Opportunity) Analysis

Situation AppraisalSituation Appraisal

Identify ConcernsIdentify Concerns (List threats and Opportunities)(List threats and Opportunities) What deviations are occurring?What deviations are occurring? What decisions need to be made?What decisions need to be made? What plans should be implemented?What plans should be implemented? What changes are anticipated?What changes are anticipated? What opportunities exist?What opportunities exist? What bothers us about . . . .?What bothers us about . . . .?

Situation AppraisalSituation Appraisal

Separate and Clarify ConcernsSeparate and Clarify Concerns What do we mean by . . . ?What do we mean by . . . ? What exactly is . . . ?What exactly is . . . ? What else concerns us about . . . ?What else concerns us about . . . ? What evidence do we have . . . ?What evidence do we have . . . ? What different deviations, decisions, or plans are What different deviations, decisions, or plans are

part of this concern?part of this concern?

Situation AppraisalSituation Appraisal

Set Priority Set Priority Which concern should we work on first?Which concern should we work on first? Consider . . . Consider . . .

. . . the current impact. . . the current impact What is the current impact on people, safety, cost, What is the current impact on people, safety, cost,

customers/stakeholders, productivity, reputation, etc?customers/stakeholders, productivity, reputation, etc? What evidence do you have? What evidence do you have? Which concern is most serious?Which concern is most serious?

Situation AppraisalSituation Appraisal

Set PrioritySet Priority Consider . . . Consider . . .

. . . the future impact. . . the future impact If left unresolved, how and when will the seriousness If left unresolved, how and when will the seriousness

change?change? What evidence do you have?What evidence do you have? Which concern is getting worse quicker?Which concern is getting worse quicker?

Situation AppraisalSituation Appraisal

Set PrioritySet Priority Consider . . . Consider . . .

. . . the time frame. . . the time frame What is the deadline? When do we need to start?What is the deadline? When do we need to start? When would resolution become difficult, expensive, When would resolution become difficult, expensive,

impossible, or meaningless? impossible, or meaningless? What evidence do you have?What evidence do you have? Which concern will be the hardest to resolve later?Which concern will be the hardest to resolve later?

Planning the Next StepsPlanning the Next Steps Decision AnalysisDecision Analysis

Do we need to simply make a choice?Do we need to simply make a choice?

Decision AnalysisDecision Analysis

Clarify the PurposeClarify the Purpose What is the decision?What is the decision? What are the What are the WANTWANT objectives? objectives? What are the What are the MUSTMUST objectives? objectives? What are the relative weights of the objectives?What are the relative weights of the objectives?

Evaluate AlternativesEvaluate Alternatives What are alternatives to the decision?What are alternatives to the decision? How do the alternatives fit with the How do the alternatives fit with the WANTSWANTS?? How do the alternatives fit with the How do the alternatives fit with the MUSTSMUSTS??

Decision AnalysisDecision Analysis

Assess RisksAssess Risks What are the adverse consequences?What are the adverse consequences?

Make decisionMake decision What are the best balanced choices?What are the best balanced choices?

Planning the Next StepsPlanning the Next Steps

Potential Problem (Opportunity) AnalysisPotential Problem (Opportunity) Analysis Do we have an Action or Plan to protect (enhance)?Do we have an Action or Plan to protect (enhance)?

Potential Problem (Opportunity) Potential Problem (Opportunity) AnalysisAnalysis

Identify Potential Problems (Opportunities)Identify Potential Problems (Opportunities) What are the potential actions?What are the potential actions? What are the potential problems?What are the potential problems? What are the potential opportunities?What are the potential opportunities?

Identify Likely CausesIdentify Likely Causes What are the possible causes for the potential What are the possible causes for the potential

problem?problem? What are the possible causes for the potential What are the possible causes for the potential

opportunity?opportunity?

Potential Problem (Opportunity) Potential Problem (Opportunity) AnalysisAnalysis

Take Preventative (Promoting) ActionTake Preventative (Promoting) Action What actions do we need to take to address What actions do we need to take to address

(encourage) likely causes?(encourage) likely causes? Plan Contingent (Capitalizing) Action and Set Plan Contingent (Capitalizing) Action and Set

TriggersTriggers What actions do we need to prepare to reduce What actions do we need to prepare to reduce

(enhance) likely effects?(enhance) likely effects? What triggers do we need to set for contingent What triggers do we need to set for contingent

(capitalizing) actions?(capitalizing) actions?

Planning the Next StepsPlanning the Next Steps

What is the Problem?What is the Problem?

Problem AnalysisProblem AnalysisDescribe the ProblemDescribe the Problem

What is the Problem?What is the Problem? What object (or group of objects) has the deviation? What object (or group of objects) has the deviation? What deviation does it have? What deviation does it have? What do we see, hear, feel, taste, or smell that tells us What do we see, hear, feel, taste, or smell that tells us

there is a deviation?there is a deviation?

Then ask - Then ask - What, Where, WhenWhat, Where, When, and to what , and to what ExtentExtent??

For ExampleFor Example

Problem Analysis - WhatProblem Analysis - What

What specific object(s) has What specific object(s) has the deviation?the deviation?

What is the specific What is the specific deviation?deviation?

Is Is Not What similar object(s) could What similar object(s) could

have the deviation, but does have the deviation, but does not?not?

What other deviations could What other deviations could be reasonably observed, but be reasonably observed, but are not?are not?

Problem Analysis - WhereProblem Analysis - Where

Where is the object when Where is the object when the deviation is observed? the deviation is observed? (geographically)(geographically)

Where is the deviation on Where is the deviation on the object?the object?

Where else could the object Where else could the object be when the deviation is be when the deviation is observed, but is not?observed, but is not?

Where else could the Where else could the deviation be located on the deviation be located on the object, but is not?object, but is not?

Is Is Not

Problem Analysis - WhenProblem Analysis - WhenIs Is Not

When was the deviation When was the deviation observed first (clock and observed first (clock and calendar time)?calendar time)?

When since that time has When since that time has the deviation been the deviation been observed?observed?

When, in the object’s When, in the object’s history or life cycle, was history or life cycle, was the deviation observed the deviation observed first?first?

When else could the When else could the deviation have been deviation have been observed first, but was not?observed first, but was not?

When since that time could When since that time could the deviation have been the deviation have been observed but was not?observed but was not?

When else, in the object’s When else, in the object’s history or life cycle, could history or life cycle, could the deviation have been the deviation have been observed first, but was not?observed first, but was not?

Problem Analysis - ExtentProblem Analysis - Extent

How many objects have How many objects have the deviation?the deviation?

What is the size of a What is the size of a single deviation?single deviation?

How many deviations are How many deviations are on each object?on each object?

What is the trend?What is the trend? Occurrences?Occurrences? Size?Size?

How many objects could How many objects could have the deviation, but have the deviation, but don’t?don’t?

What other size could a What other size could a deviation be, but isn’t?deviation be, but isn’t?

How many deviations could How many deviations could there be on each object, but there be on each object, but are not?are not?

What could be the trend, but What could be the trend, but isn’t?isn’t? Occurrences?Occurrences? Size?Size?

Is Is Not

Problem AnalysisProblem AnalysisIdentify Possible CausesIdentify Possible Causes

Use knowledge and experience to develop Use knowledge and experience to develop possible cause statementspossible cause statements

From experience, what could have caused the From experience, what could have caused the deviation?deviation?

Use distinctions and changes to develop Use distinctions and changes to develop possible cause statementspossible cause statements

What is different, odd, special, or unique about an IS What is different, odd, special, or unique about an IS compared to an IS NOT?compared to an IS NOT?

What was changed in, on, around, or about each What was changed in, on, around, or about each distinction?distinction?

When did the change occur?When did the change occur? How could each change have caused this deviation?How could each change have caused this deviation?

Problem AnalysisProblem AnalysisEvaluate Possible CausesEvaluate Possible Causes

Test possible causes against the IS and IS NOT Test possible causes against the IS and IS NOT specificationspecification

If _______ is the true cause of ________, how does it If _______ is the true cause of ________, how does it explain both the IS and IS NOT information?explain both the IS and IS NOT information?

What assumptions have to be made?What assumptions have to be made?

Determine the most probable causeDetermine the most probable cause Which possible cause best explains the IS and IS NOT Which possible cause best explains the IS and IS NOT

information?information? Which possible cause has the fewest, simplest, and most Which possible cause has the fewest, simplest, and most

reasonable assumptions?reasonable assumptions?

Problem AnalysisProblem AnalysisConfirm True CauseConfirm True Cause

What can be done to verify any assumptions What can be done to verify any assumptions made?made?

How can this cause be observed at work?How can this cause be observed at work? How can we demonstrate the cause-and-effect How can we demonstrate the cause-and-effect

relationship?relationship? When corrective action is taken, how will When corrective action is taken, how will

results be checked?results be checked?

Let’s Look At Some Problems!Let’s Look At Some Problems!

Planning the Next StepsPlanning the Next Steps

Problem AnalysisProblem Analysis Do we have a deviation?Do we have a deviation? Is the cause unknown?Is the cause unknown? Is it important to know the cause to take effective Is it important to know the cause to take effective

action?action?

If the answer is YES to ALL three, you have a If the answer is YES to ALL three, you have a problem.problem.