innovation future scan 2010
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get closer … into the future 2010
Idris MooteeFuture Scan 2010
Keynote - Short Version
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“The single most frequent failure in the history of forecasting has been grossly underestimatingthe impact of technologies.”
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we dramatically underestimate the power of technology progress
we are doubling our rate of technology progress every ten years
What Usually Happens?
2005 © Idris Mootee
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Fluid Phase
Explosion of different designs, Era of radical product innovation
TransitionalPhase
Standardization of design, Emergence of process innovation
Specific Phase
Contraction of competitors, Era of incremental innovation
Rate of Major Innovation
Time
Phases of Innovation
Product Innovation
Lowest CostDominant Design
Fluid Phase
Explosion of different designs, combining product innovation with low cost capabilities
Process Innovation
Experience Innovation
2005 © Idris Mootee
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Distinct industry and regulatory structures based upon distinct analog technologies with old rules
Digitization, packetization, convergence, cheap storage, advanced wireless, new compression technologies, cheap bandwidth together destroy compartmentalization.
Old Rules and Assumptions
2005 © Idris Mootee
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2010 Automation and the Service Society
2010 Est
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2010
Most of us will change jobs frequently, working for virtual companies with a core of critical staff and the rest on short-term contracts
Cultures will mix and remix. Power structures will evolve. We may be more loyal to a network-based community of people with a similar value set than to our local geographic community
2005 © Idris Mootee
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2010
Fashion will be defined not only by how they look but also the way how fashion is “experienced”. Certain pieces of the garment will support the “server” of the clothes and the Internet will play a key channel for sales. Technology will shift to devices that we wear .
2005 © Idris Mootee
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2010
This is the symbolic age when computers This is the symbolic age when computers ““speak our languagespeak our language””, technologies are , technologies are responsive to our needs and desires, humans responsive to our needs and desires, humans and machines are intimately connected, and and machines are intimately connected, and always improving each other.always improving each other.
Search engines will translate our needs and Search engines will translate our needs and connect us to the right products.connect us to the right products.
2005 © Idris Mootee
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We will witness the birth of a ‘TACTILE’revolution – new cosmetic, health & beauty products and brands that appeal to our many moods, manners, emotions & rebooted senses...
Search Technology + Nanoaesthetics + Nanosurgery = ?
2005 © Idris Mootee
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2010 The Beginning of the Voluntary Future
Source: The Fourth Great Awakening and the Future of Egalitarianism, 2000, Robert Fogel
246,000176,10043,800Balance for Leisure and Voluntary Work
75,900122,400182,100Worked to earn a living
321,900298,500225,900Total Available (after eating, sleeping, etc.)
204019951880Lifetime hours trends:
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A low-cost (below $125) PC to equip 50% of the world's population with Internet connectivity and computing capabilities by 2010.
Miniaturization will also bring PC to a new level of portability.
2010 Real Low Cost PC
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2010
Aggregation of formally distinct markets and enhanced marketing clearing and greater specialization will drive change in many industries.
Disaggregation will begin and you can order from the best-of-the breed suppliers to customize your own multi-brand product.
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2010
The dominant model of beauty will change. It will be replaced by ‘beauty by attitude’ to ‘beauty by age’ where biological age is less important than how you feel abut aging
2005 © Idris Mootee
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2010 Rainbow Youth
Rainbow Youth - more over 60 than under 20From “Selfish” to “Self-actualized” lifestylesFrom “Consumers” to the “Consumanist”shopper
2005 © Idris Mootee
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2010 Semantic Indexing
Problem Solving via Cross-Correlating Multimedia Information across the Net. Every community has its own special library and every community does semantic indexing
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2020 i-Memory
“I would never upload my consciousness into a machine.”“I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life for my children.”
Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050, your digital mom will be “50% her.” When your best friend dies in 2025, your digital best friend will be “80% him.”
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We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we only borrow it from our children.
- Native American Proverb
Thank YouFuture Scan 2010
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