HOW DO YOU

DESIGN FOR AN

UNPREDICTABLE

FUTURE?

Rodrigo Bautista - @Rodgox

Senior Sustainability Advisor Innovation | London Design Jam | November 2013

Forum for the Future is a sustainability non-profit that works

globally with business, government and others to solve sustainability

challenges.

USA

UK

INDIA

SINGAPORE

A chair? Really?

A collection of

designs from KR Really?

That finish here,

anyway

"Our failure to address environmental

issues is not a failure of information but

a failure of imagination."

Professor John Robinson

SOME THINGS ARE PRETTY CERTAIN…

the future

1.We’ll feel

the pinch

• Slow wage growth

• Lower spending on leisure

• 68% people say cost is main

barrier to sustainable living.

2. Aspiring

markets

will exist • ’Aspirationals’ look for brands to provide solutions to improve their lives and

serve society and are the largest customer segment in India and China

• They trust consumer reviews and the advice of friends and family when deciding

what to buy…

• They’re very active on social media, and are the most likely group to believe we

need to “consume a lot less to improve the environment for future generations”

(73%)

Which? Research

Non-fuel commodities such as agricultural products and industrial inputs are likely to see strong price growth over the coming years. Slow wage growth: Ongoing high unemployment and wage stagnation means that wages in 2030 could still remain below the levels that were experienced by British workers in the 2000s. Lower spending on leisure: it’s likely that the rising cost of essentials (food, housing, etc) over the next 20 years will squeeze out consumer spending on recreation and culture. The rising cost of living will be unequally distributed across the age groups: young people and adults under 50 will increasingly struggle to meet costs. The Futures Company’s Global MONITOR survey, an annual study into consumer attitudes and values across 21 markets, with a sample of 1,975 consumers in the UK.

68% people say cost is main barrier to sustainable living.

‘Green’ and ‘eco’ products have often carried a price premium, yet but a minority of consumers are prepared to pay extra

People have less time to evaluate the relative sustainability of products but ever greater expectations. They expect brands they trust to tackle issues that they care about

Brands that help people cope with decreasing levels of disposable income – by helping them to use less energy or water – can help sustainability become the mainstream option

‘Savvy’ shoppers have reduced spending, but trust, sustainability and quality shape choices more – across all socioeconomic groups (Sainsbury’s New Fashioned Values report, 2012)

3. We’ll need

to ride the

digital wave

• In November 2011 the United

Nations declared broadband to be a

human right.

• Over 70% of the world’s population

has a mobile phone

4. Inequality

will get

worse

• Over a quarter (26%) say they have skipped

meals in the past year.

• One in five parents in poverty says they

cannot afford to replace their children's worn-

out shoes, while 80% of parents in poverty

say they have had to borrow money to pay for

food and clothes over the past 12 months.

5. The shared

economy will

rise

‘The currency of the new

economy is trust.’

Rachel Botsman

BUT SOME THINGS COULD

GO EITHER WAY…

"I think there is a world market for maybe five

computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM,

1943.

"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" -- H. M.

Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.

"It will be years -- not in my time -- before a

woman will become Prime Minister." -- Margaret

Thatcher, 1974

FUTURES How do we help others to design for an unpredictable

future?

visions

long-term trends

scenarios

emerging trends

futures is… a structured exploration of the future to

improve decision making today

why use futures?

1 ….new perspectives

2 ….better ideas

4 ….creativity & innovation

3 ….joining up & building consensus

“What’s the role of technology

in helping people lead more

sustainable lives in 2025?”

We created future scenarios to provide inspiration….

+ +

…. for generating technology concepts for 2025

….these were our top ideas, you can see short summary film of them here

"Our failure to address environmental

issues is not a failure of information but

a failure of imagination."

Professor John Robinson

THANKS

Rodrigo Bautista –

@Rodgox

Senior Sustainability Advisor

Innovation | University of Brighton |

November 2013