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  • Development of global Safety synergies for Space Exploration

    regulations

    Bridging with Aviation standards

    67th IAC, Guadalajara, Mexico 30th September 2016

    Aline Decadi, HE Space Operations BV at European Space Agency Aline.Decadi@esa.int

    2016 International Astronautical Congress

  • 2

    Global Exploration Roadmap

    Mars Exploration scenarios have a common common

    international strategy

    Global Exploration Roadmap (GER)

    Space Exploration

    based on international interest

    & collaboration

  • 3

    What has changed since Apollo?

    Yesterday & today Earth-dependent

    Lift-off Apollo capsule (image Apollo 17 @NASA)

    Tomorrow Proving ground and Earth-independent

    Lunar base (@ESA) Lift-off Mars Ascent Vehicle (@NASA)

  • 4

    Existing Space Safety Standards

    ISO (International Standards Organization) including the basic space policy standards funded in ISO 14300 :

    Regulations and standards for (un)manned space systems by agencies and

    institutions:

    Need for jointly establish safety consensus standards to become recommended references

    for national regulations

    ISO 14620-1 to -3: Space Systems Safety requirements

    ISO 17666: Space Systems Risks Management

    ISO 1464-1 to -7: Space Systems in terms of Safety and Compatibility of Materials.

    ISO 24113: Space Debris Mitigation requirements

    ISO 27875: Re-entry risk management for unmanned spacecraft and Launch vehicle orbital stages

  • 5

    Global standardised Safety process for Aviation

    SAE Aerospace Recommended Practices ARP4761

    Guideline and method for conducting the safety assessment process

    Standardized process used worldwide World's most severe civil aviation standard Enriched by decades of maturation:

    Benefit from the civil airborne process to reach international consensus for space exploration safety standard

    60 millions per year (average flight duration

    of 2 hours)

    Cumulated number of

    hours flown for a plane ?

  • 6

    Common Safety objective for Aviation and Space Safety Assessment

    Critical Functions That may lead to loss

    of crew/ mission

    Bring the failure probability down to an acceptable level of safety

  • 7

    Standardized Safety Assessment process in Aviation

    MEANS OF COMPLIANCE Means AC 25.1309 AMC 25.1309

    METHOD/ ANALYSIS

    CRITERIA (QUAN & QUAL)

    SAFETY ASSESSMENT PROCESS GUIDELINES AND METHODS (ARP 4761)

    AIRCRAFT & SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT PROCESSES (ARP 4754A)

    ELECTRONIC HW DEVELOPMENT LIFE-

    CYCLE (DO-254) SW DEVELOPMENT LIFE-

    CYCLE (DO-178B)

    Intended aircraft function

    CERTIFICATION SPECIFICATIONS harmonized worldwide Requirements

    FAR 25.1309 EASA

    CS-25.1309

    ELEMENTS OF COMPLIANCE/ CERTIFICATION Results

  • 8

    Comparison of Safety tools with Space Exploration (e.g. analysis, methodology)

    Space procedure (NPR 8705-2B): METHOD: Aviation standard (ARP 4761):

    Hazard Analysis (HA) equivalent

    Functional Hazard Analysis (FHA) Preliminary System Safety Analysis (PSSA)

    System Safety Analysis (SSA)

    Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)

    Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA)

    Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA)

    Damage Modes and Effects Analysis (DMEA)

    equivalent

    Zonal Safety Analysis (ZSA) & Common Cause Analysis (CCA)

    Critical Items Lists (CIL) equivalent FMEA & Particular Risk Analysis

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) equivalent Particular Risk Analysis

    Simulation modeling Simulation modeling

    Accident Precursor Analysis (APA) equivalent Integrated in FHA, PSSA, SSA

  • 9

    Comparison of Safety criteria with Space Exploration

    Which criteria to be applied for the implementation of the Space Safety Assessment?

    E.g.

    vs.

    Several risk mitigation strategies are available to reach the requested level of mission safety.

    Need more maturation to converge on common criteria not ambigous and not open to interpretation.

    Probabilistic criteria?

    NPR 8705.2B, 2008

    1 FT + Proba of LOC

    Deterministic criteria?

    NPR 8705.2 (no rev), 2003

    2 FTs

    Management Programmatic Technical

    Experience Mission scenario

    Mission phases

  • 10

    Recommendations to reach international consensus regulating space exploration

    Elaborate requirements without specificities a priori on mission class, or type of vehicle, or purpose of flight, due to the unavailability of sufficient relevant experience & data

    Providing a path towards evolutionary improvements in regulation: Using Standardized process for aircrafts (ARP 4761 and ARP 4754) in terms of method & analysis

    As the human spacecraft base will mature for establishing criteria: Alternative 1: refinement through maturation process Alternative 2: increase levels of crew/ mission survival

    ! Clear need for iterations on a collaboration manner between Agencies and industry to determine how to advance innovative mission concepts, while being compliant to

    stringent Certification criteria

  • 11

    Presented by: Aline Decadi, HE Space Operations BV

    at European Space Agency HQ Paris Daumesnil Aline.Decadi@esa.int

    Thank you for your attention!

    Any question ?

    67th IAC, Guadalajara, Mexico