Adecco Jobmarket 2010 (2)

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  1. 1. 2010 Job market perspectives
  2. 2. The road to recovery.Although we are still some way from a full economic upturn,we have made considerable strides. But getting to this placecertainly hasnt been easy, especially for the American workforce. In December 2008, the National Bureau of Economic Researchs declaration ofan official economic recession was paired with news that our country had alreadybeen in the grips of a downturn for a full year. Events such as the collapse and failureof major economic institutions sparked significant market declines and subsequentripple effects that were felt across Wall Street and Main Street and from board roomsto cubicles in most workplaces across America. 2010 Job market perspectives 2
  3. 3. 2009 saw some of the steepest job cuts in American history. Unemployment reached 10.1% before year- end and job losses totaled 7.7 million since the start of the recession in late 2007. Beyond economic volatility, the word change took on a whole new meaning in 2009 with major shifts in the U.S. political framework. A new presidential administration came into office and quickly enacted a federal stimulus to help kick start the recovery.However, in the fourth quarter of 2009While these are the initial signs of economic recovery, all encouraging or at least stability, began to quell months of fear and uncertainty. GDP grew again signs, surviving in the third quarter, initial jobless claimsthe economic stabilized, corporate earnings showed signs of life and demand for temporary upturn workers increased all indicators that u-shaped the light at the end of the tunnel is getting or otherwise brighter. will require the Adecco Groups 2010 Job market perspectives report explores the currentsame foresight and future state of the labor market, and agility piecing together where the present reality falls on both global and historic scales. as did surviving the recession. It looks beyond the numbers to provide a holistic analysis of the employment situation nationally and outlines the status of job opportunities both by region and industry, aimed at helping you to best position your organization and your career for a successful ride back up. 2010 Job market perspectives 3
  4. 4. Where weve been:New presidential administration focuses on a stimulus. President Obamas $700 billion around the success of the stimulus package.These slowdowns continued steadily as American Recovery andthe year progressed, but skepticism around Reinvestment Act was signed shortlythe impact of stimulus efforts persisted as the after he came into office with the goal of unemployment rate broke 10% in October. stimulating the U.S. economy through an infusion of capital that would hopefully spur economic and jobs growth. According to an Adecco Group survey conducted in February,Monthly unemployment rate 10.1 10 73% of workers believed that the stimulus9.7 9.8 109.4 9.5 9.4 package would successfully create the8.6 8.9 8.2 promised 3.5 million jobs and a follow-up 7.4 7.76.9 6.6 survey conducted at the half-year point 6.2 showed similar levels of confidence in the stimulus package.In July, the unemployment rate continued to rise, but, for the first time since the start of the recession, the rate of job losses slowed,Sep 08 Oct 08Nov 08 Dec 08Jan 09 Feb 09Mar 09 Apr 09May 09 Jun 09Jul 09 Aug 09Sep 09 Oct 09Nov 09 Dec 09 showing some signs of encouragementSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics 2010 Job market perspectives 4
  5. 5. Opposing views on the impact of the stimulus package. The stimulus will have created or saved about 1.5 million jobs by the end of September 2009.Congressional Budget Office projection Is the private sector actually ready to pick it up once public support is scaled back? We won't see robust growth until 2011.Joseph Brusuelas, top economist for Moodys I dont see the green sector providing the stimulus that the economy needs... either in terms of jobs or in terms of the positive impact on the trade balance, because the U.S. relies too heavily on foreign countries to source goods needed for a green economy.Samuel Sherraden, policy analyst, New America Foundation 2010 Job market perspectives 5
  6. 6. Where weve been:American giants fail and collapse. Just as Lehman Brothers 2008 bankruptcy Despite the dismal reports of unemployment shook the stability of jobs in financial services, and the weakness in todays job market, Detroits crisis in 2009 further confirmed there remains a wide range of opportunities what was known for many years, namelyavailable, especially for skilled professionals that the U.S. economy is increasingly reliantin accounting and finance, engineering, on the professional services and technologyIT and healthcare. Job seekers should look sectors. The ongoing challenge of a shrinkingtoward aligning their skills with industries manufacturing economy is retraining theand professions that will be positively millions of Americans displaced from manu- impacted by investments from the stimulus facturing jobs so that they can fill vacantpackage and increased job opportunities jobs in emerging fields and industries.for financial services and legal professionalsfrom TARP oversight. Some of the opportu- According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nities created by TARP and governmental there were more than 2.5 million unfilledoversight include forensic accountants, jobs at the end of Q309. Of those, 422,000 management accountants, and internal were in professional and business services auditors. and another 534,000 were in education and health services. 2010 Job market perspectives 6
  7. 7. Jobs added and lost by industry February 2009 - February 2010Employment servicesManufacturing100K 100K50K50K 100K-50K -50K -100K-100K -150K-150K -200K-200K Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan FebFeb MarAprMay June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 09090909 09 0909 09090909 10100909 09 09 09 0909 09090909 1010 TemporaryConstruction100K 100K50K50K 0K0K-50K -50K -100K-100K -150K-150K -200K-200K Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan FebFeb MarAprMay June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 09090909 09 0909 09090909 10100909 09 09 09 0909 09090909 1010 Professional servicesIT100K 100K50K50K 0K0K -2 3 -10-50K -50K -100K-100K -150K-150K -200K-200K Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan FebFeb MarAprMay June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 09090909 09 0909 09090909 10100909 09 09 09 0909 09090909 1010 Healthcare Financial services100K 100K50K50K 0K0K-50K -50K -100K-100K -150K-150K -200K-200K Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan FebFeb MarAprMay June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 09090909 09 0909 09090909 10100909 09 09 09 0909 09090909 1010 EducationSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics100K50K .2 0K -.5 -.5-50K -100K -150K -200K Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 09090909 09 0909 09090909 1010 2010 Job market perspectives 7
  8. 8. Where weve been:A global perspective.According to the Organisation for Economic recession, but they trail the U.S. as the Co-operation and Development (OECD), the impact of lowered consumer/supply-chain average global unemployment rate reached demand follows an extended downturn. eight percent by mid-year 2009, lower than The labor markets in Japan and Korea are the U.S. average for the same time period at reporting steep declines, but unemployment just over nine percent (9.1%). Unlike previous rates remain considerably lower than the recessions, in 2009 the U.S. found itselfU.S. for the time being. outpaced in the speed of recovery by its European allies. In fact, even as the U.S. unemployment rate continued to climb Global unemployment rates, as of mid-2009. during the first half of 2009, Germany, France, and Italy reported significant drops Japan5.2% in unemployment between Q1 and Q2. UK 7.6% Italy7.4% Unemployment varies widely around the Canada 8.4% world unemployment rates among our U.S.9.1% OECD allies in Asia are significantly lower than the rates seen in Western countries. Germany7.5% The export driven economies of JapanFrance 9.2% and Korea are feeling the impact of the Spain 17.9% South Korea3.8% Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) 2010 Job market perspectives8
  9. 9. The economics:Looking backward and forward to put today in perspective. Feelings of uneasiness and concern typicallyOf the four periods of economic contraction intensify when the unemployment rate risesdefined as recessions since World War II, beyond the six percent mark. During the the current recession is tracking to be the last 50 years, the national unemploymentlongest on record. Previously, the 1981-82 rate has fluctuated from four percent torecessions held this record, spanning 14 10 percent. In August of 2009, the unem-months. The current recession began in ployment rate reached 9.7 percent for onlyDecember of 2007, and will likely continue the second time since World War II, and through the first quarter of 2010, spanning economists were correct in their prediction more than two years. that unemployment would reach 10 percent While green shoots in the economy have by the years end as we hit that mark in been identified and are sparking optimism, October. So, while the U.S. economy is comparing the current state of the job beginning to show signs of improvement, market to historical trends underscores the 2010 will likely begin with the highest depth of our economic crisis and the long unemployment rate recorded since the path to recovery. Great Depression. U.S. unemployment rates, 1958-2008 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1%1958 1968 1978 198819982008Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics2010 Job market perspectives 9
  10. 10. Where weve been:A shifting political agenda. The outcome of Congressional debate As bills move through Congress, watchin the last months of 2009 may impact the closely as they are amended in committeeroles and responsibilities of employers they could impact you and yourand employees for a long time to come. company. As the proposed legislationWhile healthcare has dominated the becomes more definitive, employerslegislative landscape, it wont be will be required to take the steps tothe only issue on the Congressional insure workplace compliance andhorizon. The Employee Free smart organizations shouldChoice Act has also been front be thinking about preparingand center with much debate for these outcomes beforeover the role of unions they are todays workplace. Look at the legislative schedule to be sure you are familiar with all the upcoming issues. Among other things, upcoming legislation could impose stricter e-verify policies for new employees, new pay-for-performance rules, and substantial amendments to the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act. 2010 Job market perspectives 10
  11. 11. Where weve been:Workforce demographics are changing. USA Today reported in early September that women are on the vergeof outnumbering men in the workforce for the first time, a historicreversal caused by long-term changes in womens career patternsand massive job losses for men during the current recession.Since June 2009, men have lost 74 percenttransfer to growing industries suchof the 6.4 million jobs eliminated since the as technology, medicine, and education.recession began in December 2007. Some Businesses should continue to strive tohave speculated that fewer women have recognize and encourage the talents of alllost their jobs during the downturn as a employees. Companies cannot ignore theresult of inequality in pay. If this speculation needs of an evolving workforce and remainis correct, a workforce dominated by women a competitive employer of choice. Employersmay overturn the status quo. of choice will have programs in place thatFor the most part, job losses have beenare designed to attract and retain the bestparticularly severe for men in this recessionpeople for the job, regardless of gender.because the industries that have beenAs the workplace becomes more diverse,hardest hit are historically dominated bybeing an employer of choice will requiremale workers construction, manufacturing,developing a workforce that celebratesand financial services. Regardless, whetherthe diversity of talent and accommodatesyou are a man or woman in a contractinga multitude of lifestyle and cultural needs.industry, you should consider how your skills 2010 Job market perspectives 11
  12. 12. Where weve been:A new mindset for American workers. The most serious threat to managerssatisfied with their companys contribution in this recession may be the talent flight to their retirement plans. Additionally, 78 that is anticipated at the first sign of truepercent of American workers are not satisfied recovery. Every companys greatest asset with their companys overall retention efforts is its human capital, and an Adecco Groupand 76 percent are not satisfied about survey conducted in mid-2009 indicated future career growth opportunities at their that most employers will see an unprece- company. dented exodus of talent when the jobAlmost half (48%) of workers are not satisfied market rebounds.with the relationship they have with their At Adecco Group, we are now seeing a boss and the majority (59%) of workers are shift in perspective for many of the 500,000 not satisfied with the level of support they workers we interact with in North Americareceive from their colleagues. Further, the who are moving further from a mindset of majority of workers (77%) are not satisfied Im just happy to have a job. Our research with the strategy and vision of the found that more than half (54%) of employedcompany and its leadership. Americans report that they are likely to lookSo, sentiment is changing for new jobs once the economy turns around.and not necessarily going Further, the youngest employees (who bringin the right direction. a lot of new ideas and skills to the table)While workers may have are knocking on your competitors doors.been satisfied with their Seventy-one percent of those between 18employment situation and 29 years old are likely to look for newin 2009, as the economy jobs once the upturn begins.improves, their satisfaction Why are workers looking to jump ship?level may quickly Signs point to several key drivers of jobchange along with it. satisfaction, including compensation and management. An Adecco Group survey conducted in September of 2009 showed that two-thirds (66%) of American workers are not currently satisfied with their compen- sation and 68 percent of workers are not 2010 Job market perspectives 12
  13. 13. Where the jobs are:HealthcareUnemploymentNumber2008-09 change Regions in rateof American in workforce high demand workers 6.1%+ 418,000All (education and16 millionworkers health services)Current Projected 2016Projected Jobemploymentemploymentneedgrowthin millions in millions in millions1 Registered nurse 2.5 3.01 1.023% 2 Home health aide 0.787 1.17 0.45427% 3 Medical a...