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Green Accounting for Sustainable Development可持续发展的绿色核算

International and World Bank Experience 国际和世行经验

Magda LoveiSector Manager

EnvironmentEast Asia and Pacific Region

The World Bank

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Outline 提纲

1. Introduction 前言2. International experience 国际经验3. The World Bank’s Adjusted Net

Savings methodology 世行经过调整的净储蓄方法

4. Adjusted Net Savings in Asia 亚洲经过调整的净储蓄

5. Looking ahead 未来发展

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1 – Introduction 前言

Asset accounting for sustainable development 可持续发展的资产核算

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A condition for sustainable development 可持续发展的一个条件

Society’s real wealth is not declining over time 社会真正财富是不随时间而下降的Real wealth consists of 真正财富包括： Produced assets 生产的资产 (buildings,

machines, vehicles, etc.) accounted for in the National Accounts

Other assets 其它资产 (expanding the measure of wealth) Natural resources Human capital Social capital

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Empirical evidence: The importance of human and social capital as component of wealth 实例：人力和社会资本在财富中的重要程度

Sub-Saharan Africa

Produced assets23%

Natural capital13%Human resources

64% South America

Produced assets17%

Natural capital9%

Human resources74%

Middle East

Produced assets18%

Natural capital39%

Human resources43%

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Empirical evidence: Large difference in the composition of natural capital across countries实例：自然资本各国差异很大

The components of natural capital (1994)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

High Uppermiddle

Lowermiddle

Low

Metal, mineral, energy

Protected areas

Non-timber forest benefits

Timber

Pasture land

Agricultural cropland

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2 – International experience 国际经验

Examples of accounting for asset depreciation 资产折旧核算案例

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Capturing rents from natural resources – Example from Norway 获取自然资源的租金－挪威案例

Significant amounts of rents generated by oil industry but with high

fluctuations

Forests generate substantial rents – but rents accrue to

private sector (which is also subsidized)

Oil and gas – Resource rents and taxes (1985-1996)

Forestry – Resource rents and taxes (1985-1995)

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Assessing the “cost” of equity – Example from Norway 净资产的费用评估－挪威案例

Fisheries – Resource rents and subsidies (1985-1995)

Norway chose to support small scale fisheries to promote regional development

•Fisheries do not produce positive rents•No revenue collection•Highly subsidized industry

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Reinvesting rents into other forms of capital – Example from Botswana 把租金再投向其他形式的资本－波斯瓦那案例

Mineral revenues are 35% of GDP 矿产收入占 GDP 的 35 ％Government has developed “Sustainable Budget Index “(SBI) 政府开发了可持续预算指数 SBI measures how much of the mineral

revenues are converted to other forms of assets (including expenditures on education and health)

Government guideline: no revenue from mining should be used for current expenditure

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3 – The World Bank’s Adjusted Net Savings (ANS) Methodology 世行经过调整的净储蓄方法

An indicator for sustainability 一个衡量可行性的指标

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Adjusted net savings (ANS) 经过调整的净储蓄

ANS measures the ‘change in total wealth’ over time Sign and magnitude of ANS are key indicators of

sustainability

Decomposition of ANS enables identification of policy recommendations Negative ANS (i.e. decline of total wealth) calls for:

Improve fiscal and monetary policy Invest more in human capital Change policies and encourage overexploitation of natural

resources Improve policies that encourage better pollution

management

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Adjusted net savings 经过调整的净储蓄% of GNI 2002 占国民总收入的百分比2002

Name

Gross national savings

Consumption of fixed

capitalNet national

savingsEducation

expenditureEnergy

depletionMineral

depletionNet forest depletion

CO2 damage

PM10 damage

Adusted Net Savings

East Asia & Pacific 38.8 9.2 29.6 2.2 3.4 0.3 0.1 1.8 0.8 25.5Europe & Central Asia 22.7 10.5 12.2 4.8 9.7 0.1 .. 2.1 0.6 ..

High income 17.4 13.1 4.3 5.0 0.7 0.0 .. 0.3 0.3 ..Latin America & Caribbean 19.3 10.3 9.0 4.2 5.2 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.5 6.3

Low income 21.5 8.4 13.1 2.6 5.9 0.4 0.8 1.3 0.6 6.7Lower middle income 30.8 9.9 20.9 3.2 6.6 0.3 0.1 1.7 0.7 14.6Middle East & North Africa 23.4 10.0 13.4 5.2 26.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 0.9 -10.0

South Asia 23.1 9.0 14.0 2.9 2.2 0.3 1.0 1.5 0.7 11.3

Sub-Saharan Africa 15.9 10.2 5.8 5.1 8.1 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.0Upper middle income 21.4 10.6 10.8 5.0 9.7 0.2 0.0 0.7 0.6 4.5

World 19.5 12.5 7.0 4.7 1.9 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.3 8.8

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Empirical evidence 实例

Low income countries have the lowest ANS

Lower income lower savings Lower income higher dependence on natural

resources

East Asia and pacific have the highest ANS (because of very high gross national saving)Middle East and North Africa have the lowest ANS (because of oil extraction)

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Implications for sustainability across regions 可持续性的区域比较

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6

-10

11

0

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Eas

t A

sia

& P

acifi

c

Latin

Am

eric

a &

Car

ibbe

an

Mid

dle

Eas

t &

Nor

thA

fric

a

Sou

th A

sia

Sub

-Sah

aran

Afr

ica

Education Expenditure

Net National Savings

PM10 damage

Net forest depletion

Mineral Depletion

Energy Depletion

CO2 damage

ANS

Middle East and Africa are on an unsustainable path – Latin America has low savings rates – East Asia benefits from high National Savings (2002)

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Stark differences between traditional and adjusted net savings 传统和调整后的净储蓄的差异

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Adjusted Net SavingNet National SavingGross National Saving

% GNI

Sub-Saharan Africa - Adjusted Net Saving reveals a different story from traditional

measures of saving

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4 – Adjusted net savings in Asia 亚洲调整后的净储蓄

Evidence and research needs

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Comparing gross and adjusted net savings 储蓄总量和调整后的净储蓄比较

Resource-rich countries have the highest gap

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Ne

w Z

ea

lan

d

Ind

on

esi

a

Au

stra

lia

Ph

ilip

pin

es

Ko

rea

, Re

p.

Mo

ng

olia

Ho

ng

Ko

ng

,C

hin

a

Ma

lays

ia

Ch

ina

Gross NationalSavings (2002)

Adjusted NetSavings (2002)

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Indonesia – natural resources exploitation has increased with the crisis 印度尼西亚－自然资源的开发已经增加危机

Adjusted Net Savings, Indonesia 1981-2002

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Gross National Savings Extended GNS

Extended Net National Savings Adjusted Net Savings

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Malaysia – education expenditure is an important part of investments 马来西亚－教育是投资的重要部分

Adjusted Net Savings, Malaysia 1974-2002

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Gross National Savings Extended GNS

Extended Net National Savings Adjusted Net Savings

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China – a successful story but with more to learn 中国－一个成功的故事但仍有很多需要学习

Adjusted Net Savings, China 1982-2002

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Gross National Savings Extended GNS

Extended Net National Savings Adjusted Net Savings

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5 – Looking ahead 未来

Challenges and opportunities 挑战与机遇

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Challenges 挑战Environmental accounts are mostly used in industrialized countriesAsset accounts are seldom used to assess sustainabilitySustainability can only be measured if all assets are included (e.g. need to do more work on soil erosion, groundwater, fisheries)Controversy over measurement of monetary values has made it more difficult to attract policymakersInternational comparisons are important but methodologies differ widely across countries (except ANS)

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Opportunities for China 中国的机遇

High potential to go beyond current asset accounting to analyze nationally relevant issuesOngoing efforts on ‘cost of environmental degradation’ can be exploited for improved asset accounting

Use research results on local air and water pollution Use information on soil erosion

Access to international experience and examples to multilateral institutions

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Concluding remarks

“Greening” national accounts is an important step toward measuring sustainability and informing policymakingAlso important is to focus on the quality of assets, policies incentives, and behavior that influence the sustainability of developmentChina can build on a strong foundation of research and international experience The World Bank is proud to support China’s endeavor