topic 2 henry yap gold & platinum黃金巿場 •...

Gold & PlatinumHenry Yap

World Gold Supply & Demand: 1970‐2105 (Tonnes)SUPPLY 1971‐1980 1981‐1990 1991‐2000 2001‐2010 2011‐2014

Mines Production 13,553 17,246 24,198 25,745 11,918

Scrap 494 3,720 6,379 11,330 5,766

Net Hedging Supply 1059 2157 (2912) 43

TOTAL 14,047 22,025 32,734 34,163 17,727

DEMAND

Jewellery 8,936 13,575 28,765 24,392 8,694

Industrial 2,528 3,027 3,803 4,319 1,712

Bars and Coins 2,981 4,876 3,477 5,664 5,754

Official Sector (747) (47) (3,411) (3,870) 1,876

TOTAL 13,698 21,431 32,634 30,505 18,036

SURPLUS (DEFICIT) 349 594 100 3,658 (309)

Gold Price (PM FIX)

AVERAGE PRICE 221 396 336 616 1,073 (10yrs)1,479 (4 yrs)

World Platinum Supply & Demand: 1971‐2015 (Tonnes)SUPPLY 1971‐1980 1981‐1990 1991‐2000 2001‐2010 2011‐2015(est)

TOTAL 735 910 1,480 1,957 900

DEMAND

Autocatalyst 190 295 449 686 205

Industrial & Others 135 223 378 241 70

Jewellery 288 297 588 1,231 400

Investment 10 95 82 70 25

TOTAL 623 910 1,497 2,228 700

SURPLUS (DEFICIT) 112 0 (17) (271) 200

PLATINUM PRICE

AVERAGE PRICE 240 430 418 1143 1300

Notes – World Platinum Supply ApproximationSouth Africa: 75% to 80%Russia: 15% to 20%Others: 5% to 10% (Mainly North America and Zimbabwe)

套戥的計算方法Daniel Sit

高水例子：

• 貿易場金價：每両10,000港元• 本地倫敦金價：每安士1,080美元• 美元兌港元電匯價：1美元兌7.75港元• 每両高水：(10,000 ÷ 1.20337 ÷ 0.99 ÷ 7.75) – 1080

= 1,083.088 – 1080

= 3.088

低水例子：

• 貿易場金價：每両9,900港元• 本地倫敦金價：每安士1,080美元• 美元兌港元電匯價：1美元兌7.75港元• 每両低水：(9,900 ÷ 1.20337 ÷ 0.99 ÷ 7.75) – 1080

= 1,072.26 – 1080

= -7.74

黃金五十載

講者：張強生

黃金巿場

• 黃金一直有著貴重、稀有、保值等特質。世界經濟強國亦以黃金為儲備單位

• 投資黃金可對沖貨幣貶值之風險• 金融市場震盪或地緣政治事件，黃金起避險作用• 參與者以投資銀行為主，加上國際金融機構、對沖基金、商業銀行、金商、貿易公司、券商及經紀行等，代表不同的客戶進行交易

主流的黃金買賣交易所

• 紐約金屬交易所 (COMEX)• 紐約商品交易所 (NYMEX)• 上海黃金交易所 (SGE) • 上海期貨交易所 (SHFE) • 金銀業貿易場 (CGSE) • 東京商品交易所 (TOCOM)

香港金市的運作特點

• 自律形式的監管運營• 現貨形式的交易，交易類型多• 投資形式的黃金期貨和倫敦黃金的買賣最活躍• 黃金買賣的中轉地，實金活動多• 聯繫匯率制度減弱港元金價波動，市場參與者較高峰期減少• 國內市場的開放和投資興趣增加令經營者充滿信心

黃金的對沖

• 「對沖」是避過可能出現風險的方法• 投機者有時亦會用對沖去鎖定利潤或逃避損失• 黃金對沖交易就是通過不同的巿場來做風險管理，尋找市場或商品間效率落差而形成的套利空間為主，通過兩個或兩個以上的交易，利用對沖機制規避風險，使市場風險最小化。

黃金的套戥

• 套戥是從不同黃金巿場的溢價和折讓中賺取差價，即所謂「賤買貴賣」。

出現差價的普遍原因：

• 巿場供應與需求• 不同重量、成色，交割期，地區，貨幣，時差等• 金價的波動：影響因素例如外滙巿場、股票巿場、利率、地源政治等

對沖或套戥的注意事項

• 時間的差距• 巿場流通量• 滙率的波動

• 買賣的差價• 佣金及交易費用• 交易的限制

TOCOM Market Update August 2015Sperker : Mr. Yuichi Ikemizu

2Note: the contents of this document are subject to change. Copyright is the property of Tokyo Commodity Exchange Inc.

TOCOM Overview – Who We AreDerivatives Market in Japan

Physical Commodity

Financial Instruments

What is TOCOM

Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Inc. (TOCOM) is Japan’s largest and one of Asia’s most prominent commodity futures exchanges. We operate electronically-traded markets for precious metals, oil, rubber and soft commodities.

The majority of our commodity products are traded internationally and nearly half of our volume originates outside of Japan.

TOCOM is continuously innovating and expanding our offerings. Our current initiatives include:

• Establishment of an OTC trading platform and clearing service under JOE and JCCH, TOCOM affiliates.

• Launch of Gold Daily Futures - a continuously rolling gold contract.

• Development of a next-generation trading platform to be jointly used with JPX.

• Exploration of a comprehensive energy market for LNG, electricity, etc.

TOCOM Volume January – July 2015

Precious Metals, Energy, Rubber, Agriculture

Commodity Derivatives Act

METI, MAFF

Stock Index, Government Bonds, Interest Rates, etc

Financial Instruments & Exchange Act

FSA

Products Governing Law Regulator Exchanges

TOCOM 99% ODX 1%(22 million lots in 2014)

JPX 88% TFX 12%(350 million lots in 2014)

Gold Daily6%

Precious Metals• ADV 61,937 lots• 64%

Energy• ADV 22,354 • 23%

Gold Standard• 1kg 9999 fineness• ADV 33,714• One of world’s major

gold futures market, providing a benchmark in Asia

Gold35%

Platinum16%

Dubai Crude

13%

Rubber10%

Platinum• 500 g 9995 fineness• ADV 15,450• Most liquid platinum

futures market

Dubai Crude Oil• 50 kl• ADV 12,319• Benchmark for

Middle East crude oil

Rubber• RSS3• ADV 9,705• Global benchmark for

natural rubber, with overseas participation reaching approximately 65%

Gold Mini6%

Gasoline8%

PlatinumMini

Kerosene

Corn

Gold Daily• 100 g 9999 fineness• ADV 12,941• Launched on May 7,

2015. TOCOM’s fastest growing market.

• Rolling spot contract


26.8

12.3

5.3

33.2

45.5

30

13.4

18.1

9.1

6.3

Open Interest:

Trades:

Commercial participantsProprietary trading firmsRetail InvestorsUnclassified via foreign intermediariesOthers

3,500

3,700

3,900

4,100

4,300

4,500

4,700

4,900

5,100

Jan-

14Fe

b-14

Mar-1

4Ap

r-14

May-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4Au

g-14

Sep-

14Oc

t-14

Nov-1

4De

c-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar-1

5Ap

r-15

May-1

5Ju

n-15

Jul-1

5

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

Jan-

14Fe

b-14

Mar-1

4Ap

r-14

May-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4Au

g-14

Sep-

14Oc

t-14

Nov-1

4De

c-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar-1

5Ap

r-15

May-1

5Ju

n-15

Jul-1

5Au

g-15

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000Ja

n-14

Feb-

14

Mar-1

4Ap

r-14

May-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4Au

g-14

Sep-

14Oc

t-14

Nov-1

4De

c-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar-1

5Ap

r-15

May-1

5

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

TOCOM Overview – Market Statistics

** Market Participants (percent as of September 2014)

ADV per Month(contracts)

Open Interest (contracts)

RSS 3 Rubber (JPY/g)

Dubai Crude (JPY/kl)

Platinum(JPY/g)

Gold (JPY/g)

ADV and End-of-month Open Interest (Jan 2014 – July 2015)

ADV 92,040 lots

Month-end OI 378,625 lots

TOCOM Prices (back month, Jan 2014 – August 14 2015)


Tocom Precious Metals Trading Volume

Numbers of contracts, gold=1kg, Silver=10kg, Pt&Pd=500g


Reaching out to Global Participants

Offering Reliable Markets that Meet Global Standards

Foreign customer trading and its proportion to all TOCOM volume hasincreased significantly since the launch of our current trading platformand the addition of the night session in May 2009.

Globalization measures at TOCOM have contributed to overseasparticipation growth. In five years overseas volume has grown from 10percent to almost 50 percent.

Foreign TradesForeign Trades

TOCOM’s fair, reliable and transparent market has been recognized by numerous regulatory authorities: USA: Part 30 exemption in Feb 2006

FBOT registration in Jan 2015, from CFTC Dubai: Recognised Body approval in Jun 2012, from DFSA in DIFC Hong Kong: ATS approval in Feb 2014, from SFC Singapore: RMO approval in Jun 2014, from MAS

Monthly Average Foreign Trades by Year & Ratio against Total Trades (Jan-May for 2015)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

OthersHong KongSingaporeAustraliaUSAUK

10 %

15 %

22 % 30 %

37 % 42 %

49 %

New Types of Participants

TOCOM’s first remote member joined in June 2015. Those without a presence in Japan are eligible to obtain remote membership and have a direct access to TOCOM markets. They must have clearing arrangements with JCCH’s General Clearing Participants.

Remote Trade Member KCG Asia Pacific Pte. Ltd (Singapore) (June 12, 2015)

General Clearing Participant at JCCH Nissan Century Securities Co., Ltd. (May 15, 2015) Phillip Securities Japan, Ltd. (June 5, 2015) Citibank Japan, Ltd. (July 10, 2015)

(in millions)

0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%

Jan-

09Ju

n-09

Nov-0

9Ap

r-10

Sep-

10Fe

b-11

Jul-1

1De

c-11

May-1

2Oc

t-12

Mar-1

3Au

g-13

Jan-

14Ju

n-14

Nov-1

4Ap

r-15

黄金原油橡胶

Foreign Trades Ratio by Commodity (Jan ‘09 – May ‘15)Foreign Trades Ratio by Commodity (Jan ‘09 – May ‘15)

GoldDubaiRubber


TOCOM Products – Gold Daily Futures (100g) Launched on May 7, 2015 New Way to tap into gold

TOCOM listed Gold Daily Futures, a rolling gold contract, on May 7, 2015.

Daily Futures have no maturity and positions are rolled from one trading day to the next. This differentiates Gold Daily Futures from TOCOM’s traditional gold contracts. The contract is expected to meet the needs of investors in foreign exchange and financial products, which have a similar specifications.

Underlying the contract is a theoretical gold spot price calculated from TOCOM’s Gold Standard contract (see contract specifications). The theoretical spot price is published in five-minute intervals on the TOCOM website.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

5/7 5/13

5/19

5/25

5/29 6/4 6/10

6/16

6/22

6/26 7/2 7/8 7/14

7/21

7/27

7/31 8/6 8/12

8/18

Daily Volume(contracts)

Open Interest (contracts)

BenefitsBenefits

Contract SpecificationsContract Specifications

Underlying Instrument

Theoretical spot price (*) of gold with minimum 99.99 % fineness* Theoretical spot price is calculated as follows:

The forward rate is calculated using the settlement prices of the 1st and the 6th months of the Gold Standard. Taking the days remaining to expiry into account, the theoretical price is calculated from the settlement price of the 1st month, using the forward rate.On the last trading day of the 1st month, the forward rate will be calculated based on the settlement prices of the 2nd and the 6th months.

Contract Unit 100 grams (approximately 3.215 troy ounces)

Price Increment JPY 1 per gram (tick value: JPY 100)

Trading Hours [Day Session] 9:00 am to 3:15 pm [Night Session] 4:30 pm to 4:00 am (JST)

Position Limits Position limits are not applicable; however, if it is deemed necessary by the Exchange, a limit on positions will be established.

• Evergreen: Since there is no contract expiration, positions do not need tobe rolled forward, providing greater flexibility.

• EFPs: Exchange of Futures for Physicals (EFP) is available to bothcommercials and non-commercial participants. EFPs allow positions to besettled through physical delivery.

• Reduced Margin: Those offsetting risk with TOCOM’s Gold Standard (1kg)or Gold Mini (100g) futures may enjoy significant margin reduction.

• Asia, Europe and U.S. trading: The Gold Daily Futures contract is listedon TOCOM’s trading system, which is available from trading hubs aroundthe world for nearly 18 hours each business day.


TOCOM Products – Dubai Crude Oil

TOCOM crude oil futures volume surged when crude oilprices started falling in 2014.

The primary factor is Nomura Securities’ NEXT NOTES:Nikkei-TOCOM Crude Oil Double Bull ETN (JPX code2038). Individual investors have taken great interest inthis ETN, with many positioning themselves for a reboundin prices.

Because the ETN tracks TOCOM’s Dubai crude oil prices,TOCOM Dubai crude oil futures contract has benefitted.

Next Notes Nikkei-TOCOM Crude Oil Double Bull ETN (Code 2038) Created by Nomura and listed on JPX, the product uses the TOCOM Crude Oil

Leverage Index and has a volatility ratio of 2:1, moving twice as much as the TOCOM Crude Index.

The residual redemption value went over JPY 90 billion.

0102030405060708090100

(100)

400

900

1,400

1,900

2,400

12/2/

1412

/9/14

12/16

/1412

/24/14

1/5/15

1/13/1

51/2

0/15

1/27/1

52/3

/152/1

0/15

2/18/1

52/2

5/15

3/4/15

3/11/1

53/1

8/15

3/25/1

54/1

/154/8

/154/1

5/15

4/22/1

54/3

0/15

5/12/1

55/1

9/15

5/26/1

56/2

/156/9

/156/1

6/15

6/23/1

56/3

0/15

7/7/15

7/14/1

5

Daily Volume (Shares)Residual Redemption Amount (JPY)

RRA (billion yen)Volume (thousand shares)

TOCOM Dubai Crude Oil Futures

TOCOM Dubai and Double-Bull ETNTOCOM Dubai and Double-Bull ETN

The issuer uses TOCOM futures to hedge its exposure. As the ETN becomes more active, TOCOM Dubai crude oil futures volume is growing. On April 8 volume hit 39,153, the largest in 13 years, and open interest reached 47,009 on May 11, the largest in almost 9 years.

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000

12/2/

1412

/9/14

12/16

/1412

/24/14

1/5/15

1/13/1

51/2

0/15

1/27/1

52/3

/152/1

0/15

2/18/1

52/2

5/15

3/4/15

3/11/1

53/1

8/15

3/25/1

54/1

/154/8

/154/1

5/15

4/22/1

54/3

0/15

5/12/1

55/1

9/15

5/26/1

56/2

/156/9

/156/1

6/15

6/23/1

56/3

0/15

7/7/15

7/14/1

5

Daily Volume (contracts)Open Interest (contracts)

(contracts)

From January 5, 2015, TOCOM crude futures began usingDubai crude as its sole underlying product (beginning withthe June 2015 contract). Prior to this, TOCOM crude oilfutures used an average of Platt’s Dubai and Oman pricesquoted at expiration.

This change better aligns TOCOM crude with the practicesof the Japanese petroleum trading community, whereDubai crude oil is the benchmark.

Change from D&O average to Dubai Change from D&O average to Dubai


Broker Members offering services to overseas customersBroker Members offering services to overseas customers

ISVsISVs

Among TOCOM’s 17 Broker Members, the eight brokers listed below provide brokerage services to the customers outside of Japan.

• Credit Suisse Securities (Japan) Limited• Newedge Japan Inc. • Nissan Century Securities Co., Ltd.• Okachi & Co., Ltd.• Okato Shoji Co., Ltd. • Phillip Securities Japan, Ltd. • Rakuten Securities Inc. • Yutaka Shoji Co., Ltd.

For contact information, please visit our website at: http://www.tocom.or.jp/marketaccess/brokerm.html

• SunGard Japan KK• Patsystems Japan KK• Nihon Techno Systems Ltd.• TRAdE WORKS CO., LTD.• Multi Wave CO., LTD.• Trading Technologies Japan• RTS Realtime Systems• Fractal Systems Inc.• Success Consulting Co., Ltd.• AIFRONT CO., LTD.• SOLEKIA Limited• Orc Japan K.K.

• CQG International Ltd.• Trade Systems Co., Ltd.• INTEC Inc.• Three A System Corporation• FFastFill PLC• NTT Communications Corporation• Future Assist Corporation• Fidessa group plc• NYSE Technologies• Bloomberg Trading Services Japan• ULLINK KK• FlexTrade Systems Pte Ltd.

Contact Information

Inquiry:

For more information, please visit our website at www.tocom.or.jp, or,

contact TOCOM Global Business Development Tel:+81-3-3661-1660 Fax:+81-3-3664-0089 http://www.tocom.or.jp/contact.html

Inquiry:

For more information, please visit our website at www.tocom.or.jp, or,

contact TOCOM Global Business Development Tel:+81-3-3661-1660 Fax:+81-3-3664-0089 http://www.tocom.or.jp/contact.html

Market Information:

TOCOM market-related information is available on TOCOM website at:

TOCOM Market Datawww.tocom.or.jp/souba/all/index.html

TOCOM Historical Datawww.tocom.or.jp/historical/download.html

Precious Metals Stock Data www.tocom.or.jp/souba/kurani/metal.html

TOCOM Trading Guidewww.tocom.or.jp/guide/index.html

Market Information:

TOCOM market-related information is available on TOCOM website at:

TOCOM Market Datawww.tocom.or.jp/souba/all/index.html

TOCOM Historical Datawww.tocom.or.jp/historical/download.html

Precious Metals Stock Data www.tocom.or.jp/souba/kurani/metal.html

TOCOM Trading Guidewww.tocom.or.jp/guide/index.html

GCP

GCP

Part 30

Part 30

Part 30

Witnessing two decades of great transformation of the gold market in China亲历中国黄金市场二十载的惊人巨变Albert Cheng | Advisor, World Gold CouncilSeptember 2015

講者：鄭良豪先生

Gold market in the past 50 years黄金市场过去的50年

2World Gold Council | Hong Kong | September 2015

Geographical demand dispersion has had a visible impact on the gold market and price volatility地理需求分布对黄金市场与价格波动具有显著影响


黄金需求地区分布，以十年计百分比金价波动 -黄线

金价波动=基准年的每日伦敦下午的平均黄金定价来源：黄金矿业服务公司；汤森路透；伦敦黄金市场定价有限公司；彭博；世界黄金协会

北美欧洲东亚印度次大陆

中东拉美非洲大洋洲

独联体金价波动（右轴）

Geographical mine supply concentration has undergone dramatic change矿产金供应地域分布亦经历巨变


矿产金供应地区分布，以十年初始年份计算百分比

来源：黄金矿业服务公司；汤森路透；世界黄金协会

北美欧洲东亚

中东拉美

非洲

印度次大陆

大洋洲独联体

China: Regulatory and policy developments since 1947


1947年来中国黄金政策及法规的发展


Gold market: the fundamentals黄金市场的基本面


Stock of gold in perspective黄金存量的直观表述

1 Based on end-2012 volume and Q2 2015 average gold price of US$1,192.4/oz. 2 Includes “other fabrication” (12%) and “unaccounted for” (2%).Note: Totals may not sum due to independent rounding.Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS, US Geological Survey, World Gold Council

Total above ground stocks = 174,100 tonnes (US$6.7 trillion)1

20.8m

20.8m


地面黄金存量总规模= 174,100 吨(US$6.7 trillion)1

1 基于2012年末的存量及2015年第二季度的黄金平均价格1,192.4美元/盎司. 2 包括“其他工业” (12%) 和 “未计入数字” (2%).注：因四舍五入，分项总和与总规模稍有出入.

来源：GFMS汤森路透；美国地质调查局；世界黄金协会

Gold above ground in a big block 地面黄金存量可熔化成高为20米的立方体


Global average all-in cost breakdown for 2014


2014年矿山成本构成


2014全球平均总成本明细

资料来源：汤森路透GFMS；世界黄金协会

Mining companies have reduced costs over the last year or two


All-in sustaining cash costs by company上半年采矿企业总维持现金成本下降金矿产量价格（单位：美元/盎司）美元/盎司

维持总成本现金成本总额

数据来源：Metal Focus; 世界黄金协会

总维持现金成本小幅下降美元/盎司

来源：彭博；世界黄金协会

Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council来源：彭博；世界黄金协会

Gold market: the 4 key market trends黄金市场4大趋势


1. Changing composition of gold demand in the last 10 years1. 过去十年的黄金需求构成不断变化


不同领域黄金需求占比百分比


金饰科技投资央行净买入

2. Central banks return as net buyers after decades...2. 央行在数十年后重新成为黄金净买家


央行黄金买卖行为，以公吨计公吨

净买家

净卖家

净销售额净购买额


3. A large portion of this gold demand has come from Asia…一大部分黄金需求来自亚洲


Note: Demand includes jewellery, bars and coins, and technology. It excludes ETF investment, over-the-counter investment, and central bank net purchases. Total may not sum to 100% due to rounding.Source: Metals Focus, World Gold Council 注: 需求包括首饰，金币和金条，科技；但不包括ETF投资， OTC投资和央行净买入。各项总和或因四舍五入与总计略差。

来源：金属聚焦；世界黄金协会

4. Jewellery demand dominated by Chinese and Indian markets4. 金饰需求由中国和印度市场主导


2014年主要国家和地区金饰需求占比


沙特其他海湾国

China Gold market中国黄金市场



Understanding China’s gold market解读中国的黄金市场

解读中国的黄金市场


2010 – the Year of the Tiger2010 – 中国黄金市场虎虎生威



2014 – Progress and prospects2014 – 中国黄金市场：发展与前景

Conclusion: Long term drivers are intact结论：长期的驱动因素未受影响


• Asian demand driver and the ‘great rebalancing’ 亚洲需求驱动力及“巨大再平衡”• Debt crisis and re-adjustment has years to run 债务危机及再重建仍需假以时日• Central banks will continue adding gold to reserve 各国央行将继续购买黄金• Investment demand will remain elevated 投资需求将持续提升• A more prominent role in new financial architecture 在新金融体系中扮演更加重要的角色• Mine production will not rise significantly 金矿产量将不会大幅增加• Unintended consequences of QE will grow 量化宽松所带来的各种非预期后果将持续发酵• Geopolitical environment is fragile 地缘政治局势不稳

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World Gold Council | Hong Kong | September 2015

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