the euro crises: the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end?

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2011 Jason Cates

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Analysis of the Euro crises.

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Page 1: The Euro Crises: The End of the Beginning or the Beginning of the End?

2011Jason Cates

Page 2: The Euro Crises: The End of the Beginning or the Beginning of the End?

2011Jason Cates(The New York Times, 2011b)

Page 3: The Euro Crises: The End of the Beginning or the Beginning of the End?

2011Jason Cates(The New York Times, 2011a)

Page 4: The Euro Crises: The End of the Beginning or the Beginning of the End?

2011Jason Cates(The Economist, 2011)

Page 5: The Euro Crises: The End of the Beginning or the Beginning of the End?

2011Jason CatesThe New York Times (2010)

Page 6: The Euro Crises: The End of the Beginning or the Beginning of the End?

(The Economist, 2010b)

2011Jason Cates

Page 7: The Euro Crises: The End of the Beginning or the Beginning of the End?

Aim - To preserve the financial stability of the Eurozone by providing financial assistance to member states in economic difficulty. (Up to €440 billion) (The Economist, 2010a)

How - Issues bonds to raise the finance needed to provide loans to member states. (Bloomberg, 2011)

Collaboration•€60 billion from the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (using the EU budget as collateral)•€250 billion from the IMF to obtain a financial safety net of up to €750 billion. (European Voice, 2011)

2011Jason Cates

Page 8: The Euro Crises: The End of the Beginning or the Beginning of the End?

The markets currently expect a default: as far as they are concerned, 50 - 70% of the money owed is as good as gone. (BBC News, 2011a)

If this happens, it might trigger a so called "credit event“ for those who value and insure the countries' debt. (BBC News, 2011a)

2011Jason Cates

Page 9: The Euro Crises: The End of the Beginning or the Beginning of the End?

This will cause investors to start de-risking their portfolios and we may come to a point where one bank refuses to lend to another. (BBC News, 2011a)

This is a credit crunch and is what the Euro policy makers fear. If it is triggered, it will negatively impact the whole world economy. (BBC News, 2011a)

Some French banks such as Societe Generale have already had their debt downgraded by the credit rating agencies. (BBC News, 2011b)

2011Jason Cates

Page 10: The Euro Crises: The End of the Beginning or the Beginning of the End?

Germany could leave the Eurozone allowing the remaining members to save the currency through depreciation, not austerity. (Financial Times, 2011)

Germany could then create another currency union with other European countries who have a positive current account balance. (Financial Times, 2011)

This new monetary union would create the world's largest creditor bloc, bigger even than that of China. (Financial Times, 2011)

2011Jason Cates

Page 11: The Euro Crises: The End of the Beginning or the Beginning of the End?

In return for the bail-out funding to the EU’s fringe members, the Eurozone is implementing a much tighter fiscal union. (The Telegraph, 2011a)

This will create a more centralised system giving more productive countries such as Germany more say over how Greece runs its fiscal policy.

The markets saw this as being the best chance of a resolution to the current Euro crisis. (The Telegraph, 2011a)

2011Jason Cates

Page 12: The Euro Crises: The End of the Beginning or the Beginning of the End?

• We are now seeing the creation of a new Eurozone bond market. (The Telegraph, 2011b)Junk national bonds can be exchanged with new

EU-backed bonds. (The Telegraph, 2011b)These conversions will not be traded, saving them

from speculation on financial markets. (The Guardian, 2011)

• In opposition are the German, they believe that it will fall on them to guarantee the debts of stricken countries such as Greece. (BBC News, 2011c)

2011Jason Cates

Page 13: The Euro Crises: The End of the Beginning or the Beginning of the End?

2011Jason Cates

Page 14: The Euro Crises: The End of the Beginning or the Beginning of the End?

• BBC News (2011a) Ten points on the Euro crisis Available at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13791879 [Accessed: 17th January, 2011]

• BBC News (2011b) French bank ratings downgraded by Moody's Available at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14910485 [Accessed: 17th January, 2011]

• BBC News (2011c) Commission president Barroso to put forward eurobonds Available at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14913517 [Accessed: 17th January, 2011]

• Bloomberg (2011) European Rescue Fund May Buy Bonds, Recapitalize Banks, ECB's Stark Says Available at: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-22/ecb-s-stark-says-rescue-fund-may-buy-bonds-recapitalize-banks.html [Accessed: 17th January, 2011]

• The Economist (2010a) Available at: The new head of the Eurozone SPV http://www.economist.com/node/16485600?story_id=16485600&fsrc=rss [Accessed: 17th January, 2011]

• The Economist (2010b) Strong core, pain on the periphery Available at: http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/02/europes_economies [Accessed: 17th January, 2011]

• The Economist (2011) Strong core, pain on the periphery Available at: http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/02/europes_economies [Accessed: 17th January, 2011]

• European Voice (2011) Spain seeks to reassure EU leaders Available at: http://www.europeanvoice.com/article/2010/06/spain-seeks-to-reassure-eu-leaders/68293.aspx [Accessed: 17th January, 2011]

2011Jason Cates

Page 15: The Euro Crises: The End of the Beginning or the Beginning of the End?

• Financial Times (2011) Available at: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/67c66cfc-819b-11e0-8a54-00144feabdc0,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F67c66cfc-819b-11e0-8a54-00144feabdc0.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FEuropean_sovereign_debt_crisis%23cite_note-169#axzz1NKSfAFsI [Accessed: 17th January, 2011]

• The Guardian (2011) Euro crisis needs leaders, not ideological battles Available at: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/jul/19/euro-crisis-leaders [Accessed: 17th January, 2011]

• The New York Times (2010) Europe's Web of Debt Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/05/02/weekinreview/02marsh.html [Accessed: 17th January, 2011]

• The New York Times (2011a) 2010 Debt as a percentage of G.D.P Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/04/06/business/global/european-debt-map.html [Accessed: 17th January, 2011]

• The New York Times (2011B) Debt Rising in Europe Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/04/06/business/global/european-debt-map.html [Accessed: 17th January, 2011]

• The Telegraph (2011a) The euro crisis will give Germany the empire it’s always dreamed of Available at: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peteroborne/100098260/this-crisis-will-give-germany-the-empire-its-always-dreamed-of/ [Accessed: 17th January, 2011]

• The Telegraph (2011b) A euro crisis... but also an opportunity for Britain Available at: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/8650595/A-euro-crisis...-but-also-an-opportunity-for-Britain.html [Accessed: 17th January, 2011]

2011Jason Cates