The BlueSkyRAINS Smoke Modeling System

Sim LarkinAirFIRE Team, Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Laboratory

Emissions Conference, New Orleans May 17, 2006

Outline

• What is BlueSkyRAINS?

• Making BlueSkyRAINS useful for EIs

• Problems with Fire

• Ongoing Work

AcknowledgementsSue FergusonSusan O’Neill

AirFIRE TeamRobert SolomonDylan MyersMiriam RorigJeanne HoadleyCandace KrullMitchell JohnsonNick BarkasMark MooreBrian Potter

EPA Region 10Rob WilsonRay PetersonDon MathenyBob Kotchenruther

BlueSky-EM ProjectEPA NERL / NOAA ARL Tom PierceGeorge PouliotUNCCMAS

NASA GrantSonoma TechSean RaffuseLyle ChinkinDana Sullivan

+ many others

BlueSky Smoke Modeling Consortium

FCAMMS centers- Scott Goodrick

Tom Pace, EPACharlene Spells, EPA

BlueSkyRAINS

RA

INS

Applied to VariousInputs, Domains

BLU

ES

KY

A Framework of Models

Visualization Tools

+

Cumulative Smoke ImpactCalculations from Rx, Wildland, and/or Ag fires

User Interface

Smoke Predictions

BlueSkyRAINS

RA

INS

Applied to VariousInputs, Domains

BLU

ES

KY

A Framework of Models

Visualization Tools

+

Cumulative Smoke ImpactCalculations from Rx, Wildland, and/or Ag fires

User Interface

Smoke Predictions

The IdeaCalculations of Cumulative Smoke Impacts from Fires

FIRE INFO WEATHERPREDICTIONS

SMOKE TRAJECTORIES andCONCENTRATIONS

• Rx• Wildland• Ag

• MM5• WRF

Manage-ment

Fire

LocalEffects

RemoteEffects

BlueSky FrameworkWEATHER FORECASTMODEL OUTPUT

Wildfire ICS 209FASTRACS

RAZUManual

Other

FIRE INFORMATIONREPORTING SYSTEMS

FCCSHardy (West)

NFDRSCONSUME 1.02

CONSUME 3BURNUP

MM5WRF

HYSPLIT

CALPUFFHYSPLIT

CALMM5

FUEL LOADING

CONSUMPTION

EMISSIONS

MET INTERPRETER

DISPERSION

TRAJECTORIES

SMOKE TRAJECTORY & CONCENTRATION PREDICTIONS

Framework is:•Modular•Open-sourced

EPMFEPS

BURNUPIdealized profile

PM

2.5

Gro

und

Con

cent

ratio

n

What is BlueSky?

RA

INS

Applied to VariousInputs, Domains

BLU

ES

KY

A Framework of Models

Visualization Tools

+

Cumulative Smoke ImpactCalculations from Rx, Wildland, and/or Ag fires

User Interface

Smoke Predictions

Technology

LINUX CLUSTER

Fire Reports- from web

WeatherForecast

SQL DBServer

ArcIMSWebServers

BlueSky

Users- via web

RAINS

BlueSkyRAINS

BlueSkyRAINS

BlueSkyRAINS

15

Quantitative Information

1616

Quantitative Information

1717

Monitoring Data

1818

Meteorological Forecast Info

Implementation (FCAMMS centers)

BlueSkyWest Demo

2020

BlueSky/RAINS ApplicationsDomain Resolution FCAMMS Station

Wildfire

Rx fire

Ag fire

RA

INS

In Operation Since

12 km *

4 km

N. California 4 km CANSAC PSW 2004

S. California 4 km CANSAC PSW 2004

Northeast 12 km EAMC NCRS M 2004

Rocky Mountain 6 km RMC RMRC M 2004

12 km *

4 km *

36 km

12 km2005NWRMC /

RMC RMRC MWest (demo)

2005SHRMC SRS MSoutheast

2002NWRMC PNWNorthwest

22

BlueSky + ClearSkyBlueSky

BlueSky Wildland Fire+ ClearSky Agricultural Fire

Using BlueSky for EIsBlueSky Framework calculates hourly emissions from fire location information

BlueSky as fire model for CMAQ(make SMOKE ready files, like BEIS, MOBILE)

BlueSky-EM ProjectEPA NERL / NOAA ARL Tom PierceGeorge PouliotUNCCMAS

BlueSky EM project

BlueSky FrameworkWEATHER FORECASTMODEL OUTPUT

FIRE INFORMATIONREPORTING SYSTEMS

FUEL LOADING

CONSUMPTION

EMISSIONS

MET INTERPRETER

DISPERSION

TRAJECTORIES

SMOKE TRAJECTORY & CONCENTRATION PREDICTIONS

WEATHER FORECASTMODEL OUTPUT

MET INTERPRETER

DISPERSION

TRAJECTORIES

SMOKE TRAJECTORY & CONCENTRATION PREDICTIONS

BlueSky FrameworkFIRE INFORMATION

REPORTING SYSTEMS

FUEL LOADING

CONSUMPTION

EMISSIONS

Example: AIRPACT-3 • Washington State University• Joe Vaughn & Brian Lamb

• Northwest Domain• Daily AQ predictions• CMAQ Model• BlueSky fire emissions now

incorporated– SMOKE ready file

downloaded to AirPACTAcroleinBenzene1,3-ButadienePerchloroethyleneFormaldehydeAcetaldehydePhenanthrene

PM speciesNitratesSulfatesOrganic aerosolsWind-Blown DustPM2.5 total mass

Problems w/ Fire EmissionsDepends on Type of Inventory Desired• Real-time vs Retrospective• Hourly vs Summary Statistics

Sticky Wickets• Fire Reporting• Fuel Loadings• Emissions Models

Fire Reporting: Timing & AvailabilityWildland Fire / Wildland Fire Use• National Reporting• ICS 209 reports• ~ 1-2 day lag

Prescribed Fire• varies regionally - some areas very goode.g. WA/OR/ID/MT - planned burns reported• ~ public lands okay, private less so

Agricultural Burning• much less

Better

Worse

Fire Reporting: QA / QCFire Locations • not always accurate• but satellites have

problems too

Fire Growth• can vary by person/

technique• possible to get

negative growth

Acres Burned ≠ Fuels Burned

courtesy Tim Brown / DRI

Fuel Loadings

Total Carbon Emissions

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

MC heav

yMC lig

ht

MP heav

yMP lig

ht

LLP he

avy

LLP lig

ht

BS heav

yBS lig

ht

CS heav

yCS lig

ht

Gg-

Car

bon

Light HeavyLack of Fuel Reporting

What Fuel Loading to use?

- Mapped fuels.

Observed variations can make a big difference (~2-8x).

Pacific Northwest Mixed Conifer (MC)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Time since Ignition (min)

kg-C

arbo

n/s

heavylight

Emissions Models

→Bulk formulas may have large errors.

Total Emissions

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

FEPS Consume1.02

Consume 3.0 FOFEM

Emissions Model choices matter, too.One example (~4x):

Time distribution typically simple:

Model Evalution• Verification Studies• Sensitivity Experiments• Model intercomparison

Ensembles• of weather predictions• of fire growth & fuels & emissions models

FCAMMS Integration• National page to add your fire

Incorporating Satellite Information• NASA grant / Sonoma Technologies•(stay tuned for Lyle’s talk up next)

PartnersBlueSky ConsortiumFCAMMSEPA Sonoma TechUW / WSUDOI

FundingNFPJFSPEPADOINASAR6/SOROMT DEQ

Ongoing and Future Work

Sally Dombrowskithe EPAthe Emissions Inventory Conference

Thank you

Sim Larkinlarkin@fs.fed.us206-732-7849

Contact:

http://airfire.orghttp://blueskyrains.org