Status of Drought Monitoring and Preparedness in the Philippines

by

Rosalina G. de Guzman2

1Presented at the International Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures: Preparedness and Management for Sustainable Agriculture, Forestry

2Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, Quezon City, Philippines

Outline

2. Status of Monitoring Drought2. Status of Monitoring Drought

4. Policies4. Policies

3. Drought Preparedness 3. Drought Preparedness

1. Background Information1. Background Information

Significant increase in the frequency of hot days

Significant increase in the frequency of warm nights

Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 99th percentile

Trend in the frequency of days with maximum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 99th percentile

Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines* Period: 1961 – 2003

*Tibig, LV,et al (2004)Trends in extreme daily temperatures and 24-hr rainfall in the Phil. CAB Technical Report, PAGASA

Significant increase in the frequency of hot days and warm nights.

(Warm nights).(Hot days).

Trend in Number of Raindays(at least 2mm rr/day) *

(1961 – 2003)

•Increases in the top Northern Eastern Luzon.

• Increases in the Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanao

• Findings not statistically significant

NUMBER OF

RAIN DAYS

*Tibig, LV,et al (2004)Trends in extreme daily temperatures and 24-hr rainfall in the Phil. CAB Technical Report, PAGASA

ZamboangaCity

El NiEl Niñño Vulnerability Mapso Vulnerability MapsRiceRice CornCorn

During the last half-century, there have been 12 weak, moderate and strong El Niño events which are associated with drought events that have brought adverse socio-economic impacts in the Philippines.

In 1983, damages amounted to PHP 4.1 Billion.In 1998, total damage to agriculture wasPHP 7.76 Billion.

The following indices are used to monitor the extent and impact of rainfallabnormalities leading to drought:

Moisture Availability Index (MAI) is the degree of dryness or wetness experienced in a particular region and is assessed by comparing the rate of potential evapotranspiration (PET) with the rate of precipitation.

Yield Moisture Index (YMI) is not just a drought index but it helps users assess agroclimatic crop conditions during the crop season. It works in combination with the total amount of rainfall received during the different crop stages multiplied by the crop coefficients.

Rainfall Extreme Index (REI) is express in seasonal irainfall amounts by using percentiles. Lower than the 20th percentile has the potential for drought and in excess of the 80th percentile potential for flood conditions

Percent of Normal is the ratio between the monthly rainfall and the average rainfall experienced in a particular region .

Drought Indices in the Philippines

Figure 3 . Quarterly R ainfall Extreme Index (R EI) ass ociated with the 1997-1998 El Niño event compared with tho se o f the st ro ng El Niño events o f 1972-1973 and 1982-1983 start ing April, M ay and June perio d.Quarterly Rainfall Extreme Index

Drought impacts vary with different ENSO events

Severe Flood Damage> 90

Potential Flood damage81-90

Way Above Normal61-80

Above Normal51-60

Near Normal41-50

Moderate Drought Impact21-40

Drought Impact with Major Losses11-20

Severe Drought Impact< 10

ImpactPercentile Rank

GOVERNMENT RESPONSE GOVERNMENT RESPONSE TO TO

CLIMATE VARIABILITY & CLIMATE VARIABILITY & EXTREME EVENTSEXTREME EVENTS

Outputs (Near-Real Time and Non-Real Time) 1. Meteorological Observations

• 5-Day, 10-Day, Monthly, Seasonal, Annual Rainfall2. Potential impacts of weather/climate on water

availability for irrigation and rainfed crops.3. Weather-based crop condition assessment

(of standing rice and corn crops) for various regions, possibly including other importantrice/corn producing countries.

4. Extreme events advisories/warning and assessment.

Climate Information Monitoring and Prediction Services(CLIMPS) for Agriculture

Outputs (Non-Real Time)1. Climatological Normals/Averages

• 5-Day, 10-Day, Monthly, Seasonal, Annual Rainfall• Onset/Termination of Rainy Season • Tropical Cyclone Occurrence• Solar Radiation, Evaporation, and Temperature

2. Climatological Extremes• Floods and Droughts• Winds, Temperature

3. Weather-based Crop Calendars

Climatic Data & Information Monitoring & Impact Assessment

Product DeliveryPrediction ServicesOutputs1. 3-Day, 10-Day / Weekly, Monthly Weather Outlook2. Monthly rainfall forecast by province3. Seasonal Climate Prediction

• Onset, termination of summer monsoon rainfall• Quality of Rainy Season

4. Potential seasonal rice and corn crop productionfor various regions and possibly for other countries producing rice and corn.

Products1. Data/information for policy and development

planning , publication of other data.

2. Education and awareness program – workshops/seminars / trainings on CLIMPS

• Review of Climate Condition (for the last three months)

• Seasonal Climate Outlook and its possible impacts to agriculture, health, water resources.

• Open Forum

To develop an understanding of extreme weather and climate events (El Niño, La Niña, tropical cyclones, etc.) and how they impact on the different sectors

To develop an awareness of available PAGASA services for the different sectors and on the use of climatic data and information for various needs/activitiesMore interfacing sessions with the various end-users for the effective use of climate information for socio-economic benefit

To validate climate information with the view of making them user friendly

Quarterly Climate Outlook Forum

PAGASA

Dept. of Agriculture

RegionalOffices

ProvincialOffices

MunicipalMedia

Top-level Decision makers

Flow of InformationFlow of Information““End to End ApproachEnd to End Approach””

GLOBAL CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTERS

Sea Surface Temperature AnomaliesRainfall Anomalies

Temperature Anomalies

CAB/PAGASA/DOST

Analysis / Downscaling techniques / Impact assessment procedures /

Forum Discussion

Tailored Local Climate Forecasts / Advisories (Iloilo)

CLIMATE PATTERNS TRENDS

Near-real-time Data

HISTORICAL DATA AND INFORMATION

Episodic Events Documents

Dumangas Agromet Station

TWG CLIMATE FORUM

Prov’l Agricultural Officer Municipal Agricultural Officers

NIA Region VI Dumangas Agromet Station Officer

Farmers Reps. Local Irrigation System Office

IMPACTS / DECISION OUTLOOKS / ADVISORIES

FARMERS

Translation of Global Climate Forecasts into Impacts / Decision Translation of Global Climate Forecasts into Impacts / Decision Outlooks Outlooks and Advisories for the Endand Advisories for the End--User Farmers of Dumangas and Tigbauan, IloiloUser Farmers of Dumangas and Tigbauan, Iloilo

• Climate Forum• Establishment of Agromet Stations in

cooperation with state universities

1. Issuance of Monthly Climate Assessment Bulletins (1st Quarter 1985 – Maiden Issue)

3. Inter-Agency Committee on Water Crisis Management – for the 1986-1987 El Nino event

2. Creation of Drought Early Warning and Monitoring System (DEEWMS) – 1986

4. Presidential Task Force on El Niño – inter-agency committee created during the 1997-1998 El Niño event

5. Inter Agency Committee on Rice and Cereals

Chairman : Secretary, Department of AgricultureCo-Chairman : Secretary, Department of National Defense

Members Secretary, Department of Interior and Local GovernmentSecretary, Department of Environment and Natural

ResourcesSecretary, Department of Health

Secretary, Department of Trade and IndustrySecretary, Department of EnergySecretary, Department of Public Works and HighwaysSecretary, Department of EducationSecretary, Department of Science and TechnologySecretary, Department of Social Welfare and DevelopmentSecretary, Department of Transportation and CommunicationChairperson, National Commission for Indigenous PeopleDirector, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and

Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

El NIEl NIÑÑO TASK FORCEO TASK FORCE

Hydropower and status of

dams

ICWCM

MWSSNIANPC PAGASA BSWM OthersDPWH LWUA

NWRB

ICWCM – Inter-agency Committee on Water Crisis Management

NWRB – National Water Resources Board

NPC – National Power Corporation

NIA – National Irrigation Administration

MWSS – Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System

PAGASA – Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration

BSWM – Bureau of Soils and Water Management

DPWH – Department of Public Works and Highways

LWUA – Local Water Utilities Administration

Water supply for Metro Manila

Weather, flood and climate advisories & information

Cloud seeding operations

irrigation

Inter-Agency Committee on Water Crises Management

F A R M E R S

Farmer Groups

P1-1

P1-2P1-2 P1-2

F A R M E R S

Farmer Groups

P1-1P1-1

P1-2P1-2 P1-2P1-2P1-2 P1-2P1-2P1-2 P1-2

Stage 1: training of agricultural extension specialists (district level)

Stage 2: training of agricultural extension workers (sub-district)

Stage 3: training of heads of farmers groups

Stage 4: training of farmers

Building capacities of farmers, and linking climate information providers, intermediate users, and end users

Forecast information too general in terms of space and time

Forecast needs are at local level

Forecast information received from different sources have conflicting messages

Forecast information language is not clearly understood by users

Forecast Constraints

How can we manage associated risk?

Understanding the influences of climate variability/extremes in agricultural production

Analytical tools to describe the weather extremes and climate variability

Access to early warning and advisories, to give enough lead time on possible occurrence of extreme events and seasonal anomalies.

Ability to apply the warnings and forecasts in decision making.

Awareness that weather and climate extremes, variability and change will impact on agricultural productions.

Policy measures in terms of access to new innovation and technologies to adapt to climate variability and extremes

Institutional Efforts

Establishment of Small Water Impounding SystemsPromotion of modified technologies to enhanced local farmers participation to organic farmingPromotion of soil and water conservationNIA has embarked a program to repair and rehabilitate more than 300,000 ha of unserviceable irrigated farmlands

Institutional Efforts

Utilization of drought and submergence oftolerant rice varietiesUse of improved crop varieties that are resistant to pest and diseasesLocalized drip irrigation

Current Needs

Capacity building (human resource & infrastructure)Application of remote sensing data in the assessment of droughtDecision support toolsForecasting of extreme events

Strengthening of early warning systems to lessen societal vulnerability to weather and climate risks.

Recommendation

Decision support systems as management risk management toolsThe application of seasonal forecasts for crop management strategies, risk management planning.

Strengthen the use of agricultural extension workers in training farmers and the use of information that are customized for target groups

Strong collaboration with different stakeholders is crucial in drought preparedness

Recommendation

Application of remote sensing technology should be a research priorityStandardized drought indexPartnership with other relevant stakeholders need to be further strengthened in order to mainstream drought risk managementMore interfacing sessions/forums between More interfacing sessions/forums between local climate forecast producers and endlocal climate forecast producers and end--usersusers

Recommendation