drought preparedness planning: an instrument for drought impacts mitigation

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Drought Preparedness Planning: an instrument for drought impacts mitigation. Mohamed Bazza, Sr Officer, NRL. drought is the most complex but least understood of all natural hazards, affecting more people than any other natural hazard. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Drought Preparedness Planning:an instrument for drought impacts mitigationMohamed Bazza, Sr Officer, NRLdrought is the most complex but least understood of all natural hazards, affecting more people than any other natural hazard.

drought frequency and severity increasing as a result of climate changedrought definitionsignificant deficiency of precipitation from "normal" over an extended period of time, resulting in a water shortage for some activity, group, or environmental sector

drought should not be confused with aridity, water scarcity and stress, desertification, water shortage, etc.

Natural and Social Dimensions of DroughtMeteorologicalAgriculturalHydrologicalSocio-economic Decreasing emphasis on the natural event (precipitation deficiencies)Increasing emphasis on water/natural resource management Increasing complexity of impacts and conflictsTime/Duration of the event

passive management of drought as a CrisisSource: National Drought Mitigation Center, Lincoln-Nebraska, USAcrisis management implicationsreactive, post-impact, drought has taken its tollresponse: costly, untimely, poorly targeted, poorly coordinated, ineffectivedecreases self-reliance, promotes dependence on government and donors, greater vulnerability

Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability (natural) (social)drought risk management pro-active, less damages for same drought levelresponse: less costly, timely, targeted/equitable, effectiveresilience/self-reliance increase, sustainability

drought preparedness plan

set of measures and actions to be taken before, during and after drought with the objective of mitigating impacts and conflicts arising from drought

the plan of action is prepared before drought occurs

the measures and actions are taken by government, farmers, herders, fishermen, individual citizens, industry and others,

The measure concern priority, key sectors of the economy that are directly affected by drought (water resources, crop production, livestock, forestry, aquaculture, etc.)

cycle of disaster management

Components of Drought Risk Analysis(social factors)Hazard(natural event)Riskx=VulnerabilityA New Paradigm for Drought ManagementMonitoring/early warning

Foundation of a drought mitigation plan Indices linked to impacts and triggers

2. Risk and impact assessment Who and what is at risk and why

3. Mitigation and response (risk management)

Actions/programs that reduce risk and impacts and enhance recoverycomponents of a drought preparedness plan

1. Monitoring and Early Warning

Monitoring and early warning committee

A. Establish drought management areas

B. Inventory data quantity, quality from current observation networks

C. Determine data needs of primary users

D. Develop a drought monitoring system

F. Develop or modify current data and information delivery systems

2. Risk and Impact Assessment

Risk and impact assessment Committee

Task 1: Conduct a Drought Impact Assessment

Task 2: Rank the Most Pressing Impacts

Task 3: Conduct a Vulnerability Assessment

Task 4. Identify Risk Management Options (actions/activities to do for eliminating or reducing risk)

Task 4. Prioritize Risk Management Options (based on criteria agreed to)

Drought Task ForceMonitoring CommitteeRisk AssessmentCommitteeWorking GroupsAssessment ReportsSituation ReportsPolicy DirectionSituation ReportsAssessment ReportsPolicy DirectionDrought Plan Organizational StructureChecklist of Historical, Current, and Potential Drought ImpactsH=HistoricalC=CurrentP=Potential Costs and losses to agricultural producersAnnual and perennial crop lossesDamage to crop qualityIncome loss for farmers due to reduced crop yieldsReduced productivity of croplandInsect infestationPlant diseaseWildlife damage to cropsIncreased irrigation costsCost of new or supplemental water resourcesH C PEconomicChecklist of Historical, Current, and Potential Drought ImpactsH=HistoricalC=CurrentP=Potential Hydrological effectsLower water levels in reservoirs, lakes and pondsReduced flow from springsReduced streamflowLoss of wetlandsEstuarine impactsIncreased ground water depletion, land subsidence, reduced rechargeWater quality effectsH C PEnvironmentalChecklist of Historical, Current, and Potential Drought ImpactsH=HistoricalC=CurrentP=PotentialHealthMental and physical stressHealth-related low-flow problemsReductions in nutritionLoss of human lifePublic safety from forest and range firesIncreased respiratory ailmentsIncreased disease caused by wildlife concentrationsH C PSocial ImpactsImpactsActionsAgenciesTriggersIdentify and prioritizeWhat can be done?Indices or indicatorsWho is responsible?3-DimensionalMeasures/Actionse.g. Water Resources ReactiveShort-termlong-termProactiveApproachcategorysupply increasedemand reductionimpact minimizationsectorUrbanAgriculturalIndustrialRecreativeAdapted from Rossi (2000)EmergencyImplementing a Drought Plan- Legislation may be required for implementation

- Implementing agencies to includes activities of their concern into their work plans and budgets

- additional funds may be required to secure implementation by relevant agencies

- task force to monitor implementation through periodical reports; periodic evaluation

- Periodic updating of the plan may be necessary

- Final evaluation and review of the plan for the following season

Political will is the foundation of drought policy innovation

Integrated drought/climate monitoring is key to early warning, in parallel with a comprehensive decision support system

Drought planning, fully integrated with stakeholder participation, is critical to moving society from drought vulnerability to drought resilience

Drought planning must be integrated across spatial scales

Drought policy guidelines are critical for adaptation to local situations, e.g., institutional capacity, sectoral impacts, vulnerabilities, resource constraints.Key Messages

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