Drought Preparedness Planning: an instrument for drought impacts mitigation

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Drought Preparedness Planning: an instrument for drought impacts mitigation. Mohamed Bazza, Sr Officer, NRL. drought is the most complex but least understood of all natural hazards, affecting more people than any other natural hazard. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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No Slide TitleDrought Preparedness Planning:an instrument for drought impacts mitigationMohamed Bazza, Sr Officer, NRLdrought is the most complex but least understood of all natural hazards, affecting more people than any other natural hazard.drought frequency and severity increasing as a result of climate changedrought definitionsignificant deficiency of precipitation from "normal" over an extended period of time, resulting in a water shortage for some activity, group, or environmental sectordrought should not be confused with aridity, water scarcity and stress, desertification, water shortage, etc.Natural and Social Dimensions of DroughtMeteorologicalAgriculturalHydrologicalSocio-economic Decreasing emphasis on the natural event (precipitation deficiencies)Increasing emphasis on water/natural resource management Increasing complexity of impacts and conflictsTime/Duration of the eventpassive management of drought as a CrisisSource: National Drought Mitigation Center, Lincoln-Nebraska, USAcrisis management implicationsreactive, post-impact, drought has taken its tollresponse: costly, untimely, poorly targeted, poorly coordinated, ineffectivedecreases self-reliance, promotes dependence on government and donors, greater vulnerabilityRisk = Hazard x Vulnerability (natural) (social)drought risk management pro-active, less damages for same drought levelresponse: less costly, timely, targeted/equitable, effectiveresilience/self-reliance increase, sustainabilitydrought preparedness planset of measures and actions to be taken before, during and after drought with the objective of mitigating impacts and conflicts arising from droughtthe plan of action is prepared before drought occursthe measures and actions are taken by government, farmers, herders, fishermen, individual citizens, industry and others,The measure concern priority, key sectors of the economy that are directly affected by drought (water resources, crop production, livestock, forestry, aquaculture, etc.) cycle of disaster managementComponents of Drought Risk Analysis(social factors)Hazard(natural event)Riskx=VulnerabilityA New Paradigm for Drought ManagementMonitoring/early warningFoundation of a drought mitigation plan Indices linked to impacts and triggers2. Risk and impact assessment Who and what is at risk and why3. Mitigation and response (risk management)Actions/programs that reduce risk and impacts and enhance recoverycomponents of a drought preparedness plan1. Monitoring and Early WarningMonitoring and early warning committeeA. Establish drought management areasB. Inventory data quantity, quality from current observation networksC. Determine data needs of primary usersD. Develop a drought monitoring systemF. Develop or modify current data and information delivery systems2. Risk and Impact AssessmentRisk and impact assessment CommitteeTask 1: Conduct a Drought Impact AssessmentTask 2: Rank the Most Pressing ImpactsTask 3: Conduct a Vulnerability AssessmentTask 4. Identify Risk Management Options (actions/activities to do for eliminating or reducing risk)Task 4. Prioritize Risk Management Options (based on criteria agreed to)Drought Task ForceMonitoring CommitteeRisk AssessmentCommitteeWorking GroupsAssessment ReportsSituation ReportsPolicy DirectionSituation ReportsAssessment ReportsPolicy DirectionDrought Plan Organizational StructureChecklist of Historical, Current, and Potential Drought ImpactsH=HistoricalC=CurrentP=Potential Costs and losses to agricultural producersAnnual and perennial crop lossesDamage to crop qualityIncome loss for farmers due to reduced crop yieldsReduced productivity of croplandInsect infestationPlant diseaseWildlife damage to cropsIncreased irrigation costsCost of new or supplemental water resourcesH C PEconomicChecklist of Historical, Current, and Potential Drought ImpactsH=HistoricalC=CurrentP=Potential Hydrological effectsLower water levels in reservoirs, lakes and pondsReduced flow from springsReduced streamflowLoss of wetlandsEstuarine impactsIncreased ground water depletion, land subsidence, reduced rechargeWater quality effectsH C PEnvironmentalChecklist of Historical, Current, and Potential Drought ImpactsH=HistoricalC=CurrentP=PotentialHealthMental and physical stressHealth-related low-flow problemsReductions in nutritionLoss of human lifePublic safety from forest and range firesIncreased respiratory ailmentsIncreased disease caused by wildlife concentrationsH C PSocial ImpactsImpactsActionsAgenciesTriggersIdentify and prioritizeWhat can be done?Indices or indicatorsWho is responsible?3-DimensionalMeasures/Actionse.g. Water Resources ReactiveShort-termlong-termProactiveApproachcategorysupply increasedemand reductionimpact minimizationsectorUrbanAgriculturalIndustrialRecreativeAdapted from Rossi (2000)EmergencyImplementing a Drought Plan- Legislation may be required for implementation- Implementing agencies to includes activities of their concern into their work plans and budgets- additional funds may be required to secure implementation by relevant agencies- task force to monitor implementation through periodical reports; periodic evaluation- Periodic updating of the plan may be necessary- Final evaluation and review of the plan for the following seasonPolitical will is the foundation of drought policy innovationIntegrated drought/climate monitoring is key to early warning, in parallel with a comprehensive decision support systemDrought planning, fully integrated with stakeholder participation, is critical to moving society from drought vulnerability to drought resilienceDrought planning must be integrated across spatial scalesDrought policy guidelines are critical for adaptation to local situations, e.g., institutional capacity, sectoral impacts, vulnerabilities, resource constraints.Key MessagesThank you Merci

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