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  • Delivery The State of Queensland (Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries) 2005

    Drought preparedness, drought contingency planning and farm risk management.Dr Roger C Stone and Dr Holger Meinke: University of Southern Queensland. Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries. Queensland Department of Natural Resources and Water.

  • Delivery The State of Queensland (Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries) 2005

    Aim of the talk:

    Rationale for this approach.

    Setting the scene using Australia as a case study region.

    Drought preparedness and contingency frameworks.

    Information on which to base decisions.

    Policies and institutional arrangements.

    Risk management measures for decision makers.

    Case study examples of actions taken by decision makers.

    Some concluding remarks.

  • Delivery The State of Queensland (Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries) 2005

    Why?

    Past attempts to manage droughts and their impacts through a reactive, crisis management approach, have been ineffective, poorly coordinated, and untimely.

    Because of the ineffectiveness of the crisis management approach there has been increasing interest in the adoption of a more proactive risk-based management approach.

    An interesting aspect is that these actions are partly due to the apparent more recent occurrence of drought episodes or of more severe droughts in some instances (Wilhite).

  • Delivery The State of Queensland (Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries) 2005

    And,

    Drought planning and water crisis management needs to be proactive. This is largely because overall policy, legislation, and specific mitigation strategies should be in place before a drought or water crisis affects the use of the countrys water resources.

  • Delivery The State of Queensland (Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries) 2005

    Basic elements involved in proactive drought contingency planning (Bruins, 2001).

  • Delivery The State of Queensland (Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries) 2005

    Drought impact assessments have to be made of the impact of drought on the various water resources, economic sectors, population centres, and the environment. Different types of drought should be considered in the impact assessment studies.

    Drought scenarios have to be calculated on the basis of available information, including development of a frequency and severity index.

    From this, drought risk assessment can be investigated, primarily on the basis of meteorological data but may also include paleoclimatic information and other historical data in relation to climatic variation.

  • Delivery The State of Queensland (Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries) 2005

    To set the scene: RAINFALL VARIABILITY

    Variability of Annual rainfall

    02468

    101214161820

    Aus tra lia S. Africa Germany France NZ India UK Canada China USA Rus s ia

    Country

    Coe

    ffici

    ent (

    %)

    (100 years of data for Australia and generally also for the other countries)

    (Love, 2005)

  • Delivery The State of Queensland (Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries) 2005

    Change in rainfall variability between the 1900-1949 half century and 1950 2000 (Love 2005).

  • Delivery The State of Queensland (Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries) 2005

    WA

    NT

    SA

    NSW

    VIC

    TAS

    Legend:0-10%10-20%20-30%30-40%40-50%50-60%60-70%70-80%80-90%90-100%No data

    #

    #

    #

    #WA

    NT

    SA

    NSW

    VIC

    TAS

    Rom a

    Dalby

    Emerald

    Goondi wi ndi

    Legend:0-10%10-20%20-30%30-40%40-50%50-60%60-70%70-80%80-90%90-100%No data

    (a) (b)

    Impact of El Nio on yields: probability of exceeding long-term median wheat yields for each wheat producing shire (= district) in Australia. (Example of output for July 2001 and July 2002, respectively).

    July 2001 July 2002

  • Delivery The State of Queensland (Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries) 2005

    Wilhite (2003; 2005) identified four key components for effective [drought] risk reduction strategy. These are:

    The availability of timely and reliable information on which to base decisions,

    Policies and institutional arrangements that encourage assessment, communication, and application of that information,

    A suite of appropriate risk management measuresfor decision makers,

    Actions by decision makers that are effective and consistent (case studies).

  • Delivery The State of Queensland (Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries) 2005

    Information on which to base decisions:

  • Delivery The State of Queensland (Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries) 2005

    Information on which to base decisions:

  • Delivery The State of Queensland (Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries) 2005

    Information to base decisions:

  • Delivery The State of Queensland (Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries) 2005

    http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/AussieGRASS/RainfallAndPastureGrowth/Qld/2000s/2006/Sep/20060924.growth.pcnt.qld.ps.zip

    Information on which to base decisions

  • Delivery The State of Queensland (Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries) 2005

    Information on which to base decisions? state drought declarations based on state drought policy

  • Delivery The State of Queensland (Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries) 2005

    Information on which to base decisions? federal drought declarations based on federal drought policy

  • Delivery The State of Queensland (Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries) 2005

    Levels of assistance

    Self Reliance(Government programs to enhance self reliance)

    State Government Drought Assistance Programs

    Exceptional Circumstances

    1 2 5 10 20 100

    Frequency of seasonal conditions (one in.year event.)Note: Not to scale

    Information to help decisions? Drought policy issues: from Rudwick (2006)

  • Delivery The State of Queensland (Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries) 2005

    Forecasting the Australian Grain Crop; example of a fully integrated agrometeorological system

    Rainfall up to date and Rainfall up to date and Climate ForecastClimate Forecast

    Simple AgroSimple Agro--climatic modelclimatic model

    Geographical Geographical InformationInformation

    SystemSystem

    Drought ProbabilityDrought Probability

    5 7 9 11 13 5 7 9 11 13

    5 7 9 11 13

    Month

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    NSW QLD SA

    VIC WA AUS

    Wheat outlook for the 1999 season

    10%Pred50%Pred90%PredABARE10%NoP90%NoPLTmed

    Spatial StatisticsSpatial Statistics

    Crop OutlookCrop Outlook

    simulateswater STRESS...

    The Model - Simple water balance

    Crop available Soil water

    SoilDepth

    EvaporationEvaporation

    Run-off &Run-off & Deep drainage Deep drainage

    Compare to reference yield

    expectation

    (Potgieter, 2003)

    Information to base decisions: use of models

  • Delivery The State of Queensland (Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries) 2005

    Case study example from RSA: An integrated climate-farming/cropping systems forecast system that aid preparation for drought

    Planting date: 1 November Planting date: 1 November (Cons (Cons veve SOI phase)SOI phase)

    Probability (%) of exceeding maize yields of 2.5 t/haProbability (%) of exceeding maize yields of 2.5 t/ha

    Planting date: 1 November Planting date: 1 November (Cons(Cons +ve+ve SOI phase)SOI phase)

    (Potgieter, 1999)

    Information to base decisions: use of models

  • Delivery The State of Queensland (Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries) 2005

    http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/AussieGRASS/RainfallAndPastureGrowth/Qld/2000s/2006/Sep/200609.growth.prob.qld.ps.zip

    Information on which to base decisions: use of a pasture model (current model outlook)

  • Delivery The State of Queensland (Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries) 2005

    Sow date & SOI Phase

    15-SepNegative

    15-OctNegative

    15-NovNegative

    15-DecNegative

    15-JanNegative

    Yie

    ld (k

    g/ha

    )

    6000

    5500

    5000

    4500

    4000

    3500

    3000

    2500

    2000

    1500

    Preparedness information on which to make a decision: DSS Whopper Cropper integrates climate forecasting, crop simulation modelling, and agronomic information.

  • Delivery The State of Queensland (Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries) 2005

    Preparedness information - use of seasonal forecast information to aid drought preparedness depends strongly on the management options available to the farmer to take advantage of such forecasts.

  • Delivery The State of Queensland (Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries) 2005

    Institutional support for risk management measures use of Decision-support systems example of GrazeOn that helps pastoralists with risk management measures

    estimating stocking rate

    pasture budgeting

    monitoring total grazing

    pressure drought

    preparation

  • Delivery The State of Queensland (Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries) 2005

    Support for risk management measures: GrazeOn can deliver

    encourages monitoring to be used as a tool to direct and influence property management.

    assists early

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