Reducing Vulnerability to Drought through Mitigation

and PreparednessReport to the Inter-Agency Task Force for Disaster Reduction

Sixth Meeting Geneva, Switzerland 24-25 October 2002

Dr. Donald A. Wilhite, DirectorNational Drought Mitigation Center

International Drought Information CenterUniversity of Nebraska-Lincoln

U.S.A.

0

10

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30

40

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60

70

1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995

Percent Area of the United States in Severe and Extreme Drought

January 1895–July 2002

%

Based on data from the National Climatic Data Center/NOAA

Drought differs from other natural hazards

Slow-onset, creeping phenomena (early warning systems, impact assessment, response)Absence of universal definition (leads to confusion and inaction)Severity is best described through multiple indicators and indicesImpacts are non-structural and spread over large areas (makes assessment and response difficult; mitigation actions less obvious)RESULT, progress on drought preparedness has been slow

Common Types of Drought Impacts

Economic

Social

Environmental

Trends in Drought Impacts

Impacts are increasing in response to growing vulnerability resulting from increased pressure on limited water resources, increasing population and many other factors.

Post-impact response increases vulnerability.

Impacts differ within and between countries, reflecting who and what is at risk and why.

Trends in Drought Impacts

Impacts are escalating in developed and developing countries, but the types of impacts differ.

More humid, less drought-prone regions often illustrate greater vulnerability.

Developed countries have more resources to respond, but may be no better prepared to deal with drought in a proactive manner.

The problem of definition

No universal definition

Impact/sector specific; region specific

Drought typesMeteorological

Agricultural

Hydrological

Socio-economic

Drought types can occur separately or simultaneously

Spatial Extent

Key Drought Indicators

Climate variables (e.g., precip., temp.)

Reservoir and lake levels

Soil moisture

Ground water

Snow pack

Stream flow

Vegetation

Forecasts

Common Drought Indices

Percent of NormalDecilesPalmer Drought Index

PDSI, PHDI, CMI

Surface Water Supply IndexStandardized Precipitation IndexVegetation indices (NDVI, VCI, SVI)U.S. Drought Monitor

Composite index approach

Shortcomings of DEWSData networksData sharingEarly warning system productsDrought forecastsDrought monitoring toolsIntegrated drought/climate/water supply monitoringImpact assessment methodologiesDelivery systemsGlobal early warning systems

Components of Drought for Risk Management

(social factors)(natural event)

Climatology, Probabilities, Forecasts

Population growth and shiftsUrbanizationTechnologyLand use practicesEnvironment degradationWater use trendsGovernment policiesEnvironmental awareness

Drought—a vision of the future

Increased frequency and severity of meteorological droughts

Increased impacts associated with increased vulnerability

Combination of the two—increasing risk because of greater frequency of meteorological drought and increased vulnerability and greater impacts

Critical Issues for ISDR

Improve collection, processing, and availability of meteorological and hydrological data

Improve predictive capacities and use of forecasts in decision making

Improve understanding of drought causes at regional and national scales

Critical Issues for ISDR

Improve understanding of drought climatology and drought patterns

Inventory climate and water resource indicators and indices

Develop indicators, indices, and products for hazard assessment

Develop decision support models for end users and encourage feedback of impact assessment products

Critical Issues for ISDR

Develop and disseminate risk and vulnerability assessment tools

Disseminate drought planning methodologies

Integrate local or indigenous coping mechanisms as a part of drought risk reduction

Create drought impact reduction strategies as an integral part of drought preparedness plans

Develop drought policies at the regional and national level

Critical Issues for ISDR

Assess availability of skilled human resources needed for drought preparedness planning

Educate policy makers and the public on the need for improved drought preparedness as an integral part of water resources management

Critical Issues for ISDR

Support creation of regional drought preparedness networks to enhance regional capacity in sharing lessons learned

Enhance regional and international collaboration

Recognize the role of WMO, ISDR, NMHSs, and regional/national institutions in drought early warning and preparedness

Global Drought Preparedness Network

GOAL:

To help nations build greater institutional capacity to cope with drought by promoting risk management and sharing lessons learned on drought monitoring, mitigation, and preparedness.

Building Regional and Global Partnerships

Individually, many nations will be unable to improve drought coping capacity.

Collectively, through global, regional, and national partnerships, we can share information and experiences to reduce the impacts of drought.

Global Drought Preparedness Network

Regional Network Objectives

exchange of information

the use of common indices or indicators for early warning

data availability

scientific collaboration

drought policy development

drought planning methods and mitigation programs and actions

Must be region specific—possible objectives are to promote

http://drought.unl.edu

Regional Drought Preparedness Networks

GDPN

(NDMC)

SSA

Med

Europe

SAm

CAm

SAsiaEAsia

NAm

Next Steps: Regional Networks

Select one or more regions as demonstration projectsIdentify potential sources of financial support for each regional networkOrganize a launching workshop for each region involving key institutionsIdentify scope, objectives, and activities for each regional networkDevelop strategies for coordinating network development—what is the role of the NDMC?

Regional networks can facilitate development of drought early

warning systems, preparedness plans, and policies aimed at

vulnerability reduction.

Thanks for your attention!

Visit the NDMChttp://drought.unl.edu

dwilhite2@unl.edu