LEARNING FROM GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORIES

PART 1: TYPHOONS

WIND AND WATER PENETRATE BUILDING ENVELOPE

TYPHOONS

UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM

FLYING DEBRIS PENETRATES WINDOWS

STORM SURGE

HEAVY PRECIPITATION

FLASH FLOODING (MUDFLOWS)

LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS)

CAUSES OF RISK

GLOBALDISASTER

LABORATORIES

EXAMPLE: SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN

- - -A DISASTER LABORATORY FOR THE PHILIPPINES IN 2013- - -

PAID OFF IN 2014

SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN DEVASTATED THE PHILIPPINES

NOVEMBER 8-10, 2013

HAIYAN REACHED THE PHILIPPINES: FRIDAY, NOV. 8

HAIYAN: A SUPER TYPHOON

WE BELIEVE A FLAWED PREMISE: TYPHOON DISASTERS, WHICH

OCCUR ANNUALLY, SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY NATION SUSCEPTIBLE TO

TYPHOONS ADOPT AND IMPLEMENT POLICIES THAT WILL

LEAD TO THEIR TYPHOON DISASTER RESILIENCE

FACT: IT USUALLY TAKES MULTIPLE DISASTERS BEFORE A STRICKEN NATION WILL ADOPT POLICIES TO MOVE TOWARDS

DISASTER RESILIENT

FACT: MOST UNAFFECTED NATIONS

DON’T EVEN TRY TO LEARN ANYTHING NEW FROM ANOTHER

NATION’S DISASTERS AND CERTAINLY DON’T CHANGE THEIR EXISTING POLICIES

2014 TYPHOON SEASONTYPHOON RAMMASUNTuesday, July 15, 2014

TYPHOON RAMMASUN (a Thai term for “God of

Thunder”) (AKA GLENDA locally)

IMPACTED THE PHILIPPINESWednesday, July 16, 2014

Rammasun (CAT 3) was the strongest storm to threaten the country since Haiyan, a Cat-5

"super typhoon" that wiped out nearly everything in its path

when it crossed over the central Philippines in

November, 2013.

TYPHOON RAMMASUN

JULY 14

• Typhoon Rammasun (the 7th storm of 2014 to hit the Philippines) arrived at Rapu-Rapu island in the eastern province of Albay with gusts of up to 160 kph (99 mph) and sustained winds of 130 kph (81 mph) near its centre.,

RAMMASUN WAS HEADED FOR MANILLA—THE FIRST

DIRECT HIT ON THE CAPITOL IN FOUR YEARS—ON JULY 14,

2014

TYPHOON RAMMASUN’S PREDICTED PATH

THE PREMISE: BY NOW, THE PHILIPPINES

SHOULD HAVE LEARNED THE LESSONS ON WHAT TO DO

BEFORE, DURING, AND AFTER A TYPHOON DISASTER FROM PAST

TYPHOONS

- - - (AND THEY DID!!) THE PEOPLE OF THE PHILIPPINES

APPLIED THE VITAL LESSONS LEARNED 8 MONTHS EARLIER FROM

HAIYAN, AND MANY OTHERS

TIMELY ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS

• At least 300,000 people had already fled from their homes in Albay province alone.

• However, many people were unwilling to evacuate.

TIMELY ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS

• Schools were closed.• International flights were

cancelled.• The army was placed on high

alert.

PHYSICAL DETAILS

• Typhoon Rammasun, with gusts of up to 160 kph (99 mph) and sustained winds of 130 kph (81 mph) near its centre, hit land over Rapu-Rapu island in the eastern province of Albay,

JULY 15,TYPHOON RAMMASUN WAS HEADED TOWARDS MANILLA

GOOD NEWS ON JULY 16:The eye of Typhoon

Rammasun made a late shift away from Manila,

significantly reducing the damage to the capitol city of

17 million people.

LESSON: THE TIMING OF ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS IS VITAL

• The people who know: 1) what to expect (e.g., high-velocity winds, rain, flash floods, landslides, and storm surge), 2) where and when it will happen, and 3) what they should (and should not) do to prepare will survive.

JULY 14-16: TRACKING THE STORM IN MANILA OFFICE

LESSON: TIMELY EARLY WARNING AND EVACUATION SAVES LIVES

• The people who have timely early warning in conjunction with a community evacuation plan that facilitates getting out of harm’s way from the risks associated with storm surge, high winds, flooding, and landslides will survive.

A MAJOR FACTOR: FORTUNATELY, GOOD

COMMUNICATIONS HAD MOTIVATED OVER 400,000

PEOPLE TO EVACUATE

AN EVACUATION CENTER: LEGAZPI CITY

LESSON: EMERGENCY RESPONSE SAVES LIVES

• The “Uncontrollable and Unthinkable” events will always hinder the timing of emergency response operations.

LESSON: EMERGENCY MEDICAL PREPAREDNESS SAVES LIVES

• Damaged hospitals and medical facilities combined with lack of clean drinking water, food, and medicine, and high levels of morbidity and mortality will quickly overrun the local community’s capacity for emergency health care.

SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS

• Flooded streets• Bridges washed out or

impassible• Sea wall damaged• Airport closed; planes

damaged on the runway• Landslides

STRANDED AT INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT: MANILA

Typhoon Rammasun’s peak winds of 150 kilometers (93

miles) per hour and gusts up to 185 kph (115 mph) caused

major socio-economic impacts

SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS

• The Capital’s functions were shut down for a time

• Downed trees• Power outages• 20,000+ Roofs ripped off• Major roads blocked by debris

MANILA BAY: TRYING TO REINFORCE FRAGILE HOUSES

LESSON: WIND ENGINEERED BUILDINGS SAVE LIVES

• Buildings engineered to withstand the risks from a typhoon’s high velocity winds will maintain their function and protect occupants and users from death and injury.

SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS

• Damage to crops (rice and corn) was estimated at around 668 million pesos, or about $15 million.

Good News: According to the Mayor of Manila, no deaths.

However, 77 deaths were ultimatedly reported in other

locations..

MANILA BAY: EXAMPLE OF DAMAGE TO FRAGILE HOUSES

REPLACING LIQUID GAS IN HOME

FLOODED STREETS: QUEZON CITY

FLOODED STREETS: QUEZON CITY, GREATER MANILA

LOCAL “S AND R”

Search and Rescue and Relief Efforts Will be Hampered by

Landslides and Damaged Road Systems

LESSON: All Kinds of Things Will go Wrong During the Emergency Response

Period When the Uncontrollable and Unthinkable Happen.

DOWNED TREE: MANILA

STRENGTHENING A DAMAGED SEA WALL

DAMAGED BRIDGE

DAMAGED BRIDGE

LESSON: THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY ALWAYS PROVIDES AID

• The International Community provides millions to billions of dollars in relief to help “pick up the pieces, ” but this strategy is not enough by itself to ensure disaster resilience.

WEDNESDAY, JULY 2014

• A weakened Rammasun heading toward China's Hainan Island and northern Vietnam.

• WARNING: It could strengthen again in the open water- - -

• (and it did!)

FACT:TYPHOON DISASTER RESILIENCE POLICIES BASED ON LESSONS

LEARNED FROM PAST TYPHOON LABORATORIES ARE NEEDED BY

MANY NATIONS

PILLARS OF TYPHOON DISASTER RESILIENCE

PreparednessAdoption and Implementation of a Modern Wind

Engineering Building Code Time,y Early Warning and Evacuation

Timely Emergency Response (including Emergency Medical Services)

Cost-Effective Recovery

COMMUNITIES

DATA BASES AND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

• TYPHOON HAZARDS

• INVENTORY• VULNERABILITY• LOCATION

TYPHOON RISK

RISKACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

TYPHOON DISASTER RESILIENCE

• PREPAREDNESS• PROTECTION• FORECASTS/SCENARIOS• EMERGENCY RESPONSE• RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONS

THE CHALLENGE:

POLICY CHANGES: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE KINDS OF TURNING POINTS NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS TYPHOON RESILIENCE

CREATING TURNING POINTS FOR TYPHOON DISASTER

RESILIENCE

USING EDUCATIONAL SURGES CONTAINING THE PAST AND PRESENT LESSONS TO FOSTER AND ACCELERATE THE CREATION OF TURNING

POINTS

CREATING TURNING POINTS FOR TYPHOON DISASTER

RESILIENCE

INTEGRATION OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS WITH POLITICAL

SOLUTIONS FOR POLICIES ON PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, EARLY

WARNING, EMERGENCY RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY