National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin

12 February 2019

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin

12 February 2019

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What’s Ahead

Welcome• Rachel McGuire - Auburn University Water Resources Center

Speakers

» David Zierden - Florida Climate Center; FSU» Paul Ankcorn - USGS» Todd Hamill - SERFC

» Cynthia Donald - USACE

Discussion

Current Drought Status, Seasonal Forecasts and

Outlooks

David Zierden

Winter (Dec. – Feb. 11) Precipitation

Rankings Amounts

CPC Winter Forecast

Rainfall – Last 90 days

Comparing Winter Outlooks2018 2015

Stronger El Nino does not necessarily mean more rain, just greater confidence in the forecast.

Current Drought Status

7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast

Current Sea Surface Temperatures

• Nino 3.4 below 0.5C for the last several weeks

Is El Nino Dying?

Nino 3.4 Forecast

NOAA Seasonal Outlook (Feb. – Apr.)

Typical El Nino Rainfall

March May

Take Home Messages• 2018 was an exceptionally wet year, particularly for the Eastern U.S.

• Most stations in the ACF basin ranking in the top 5 or top 10 for the winter-to-date

• Entire ACF basin is currently drought-free

• Rainfall above normal at all time scales

• 7-day forecast indicates more widespread rain over the Mississippi/Ohio river valleys, lesser amounts in the middle and lower ACF

• Weak El Nino conditions persist, 75% chance they continue through March

• CPC seasonal forecast (Jan. – Mar.) favors equal chances for temperature, higher chances for above normal rainfall

• Weaker El Nino does not necessarily mean less rain, just less confidence in the forecast

Streamflows and Groundwater

Paul Ankcorn

Real-time Stream Flow Compared with Historical Monthly Averages

Current:»

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Previous Brief:

Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows

Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with

historical streamflow for day shown

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Current:

Previous Brief:

Lake Lanier Inflows

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Chattahoochee River near Cornelia (02331600)

Chestatee River near Dahlonega (02333500)

28-day Average Streamflow

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Chattahoochee at Atlanta (02336000)

Chattahoochee near Whitesburg (02338000)

28-day Average Streamflow

Chattahoochee at West Point (02339500)

Chattahoochee at Columbus (02341460)

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

28-day Average Streamflow

Flint River near Griffin (02344500)

Flint River near Carsonville (02347500)

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

28-day Average Streamflow

Flint River at Albany (02352500)

Flint River at Bainbridge (02356000)

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

28-day Average Streamflow

» Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee (02358000)

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

Real-time Groundwater Conditions

http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov

Previous Brief Current Brief

Groundwater Status – Miller County 08G001

(Upper Floridan Aquifer)

Groundwater Status – Dougherty County 11K003

(Upper Floridan Aquifer)

Summary

• Real-time streamflows in the ACF basin are currently in the much below normal to high range.

• 28-day average streamflow at Chattahoochee River at Cornelia, and Chestatee River at Dahlonega are currently in the above normal range.

• 28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River below Lake Lanier are currently in above normal to much above normal range.

• 28-day average streamflow for the Flint River are currently in above normal range.

• Groundwater levels range from much below normal to high across the ACF Basin.

Streamflow Forecasts

Todd Hamill

Summary

• 1 Month Streamflow forecast - Above Normal

• 3 Month Streamflow forecast – Above Normal

• Pie Charts do not directly include any adjustments to the ESP forecast based on ENSO, CPC or other. Based on soil conditions relative to normal in concert with historical precipitation.

USACE – ACF Reservoir Conditions

Cynthia Donald

BUILDING STRONG®

BUILDING STRONG®

BUILDING STRONG®

BUILDING STRONG®

BUILDING STRONG®

BUILDING STRONG®

Summary

• All projects are currently above guide curve.

• Evacuating the flood pool at each project to prepare for the next event.

• The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and expected to remain in Zone 1 over the next few weeks.

Questions or Comments?

Acknowledgements

Speakers» David Zierden, FSU» Paul Ankcorn, USGS» Todd Hamill, SERFC» Cynthia Donald, USACE

Moderator» Rachel McGuire, AUWRC

Additional Information» General Drought Information

• www.drought.gov• www.drought.unl.edu

» General Climate and El Nino Information• www.agroclimate.org/climate/

» Streamflow Monitoring and Forecasting• www.waterwatch.usgs.gov• www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/

» Groundwater Monitoring• www.groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov

Thank YouRachel McGuire334 844 1163rem@auburn.eduaaes.auburn.edu/wrc

Next Briefing:

Tuesday, March 12, 2019 at 1:00 pm ET

Slides from this briefing will be posted at:

aaes.auburn.edu/wrc/extensionprograms/drought