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6/10/20, 11(13 AM NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment Page 1 of 13 http://climate.colostate.edu/~drought/current_assessment.php NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System June 9, 2020 Precipitation Precipitation The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet stations. From top to bottom, and left to right: most recent 7-days of accumulated precipitation in inches; current month-to-date accumulated precipitation in inches; last month's precipitation as a percent of average; water-year-to-date precipitation as a percent of average. Standardized Precipitation Index Standardized Precipitation Index

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Page 1: NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System June ...climate.colostate.edu/~drought/archive_summaries/... · Standardized Precipitation Index standardizes precipitation accumulations

6/10/20, 11(13 AMNIDIS Drought and Water Assessment

Page 1 of 13http://climate.colostate.edu/~drought/current_assessment.php

NIDIS Intermountain WestDrought Early Warning System

June 9, 2020

PrecipitationPrecipitation

The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, andCoAgMet stations. From top to bottom, and left to right: most recent 7-days of accumulatedprecipitation in inches; current month-to-date accumulated precipitation in inches; last month'sprecipitation as a percent of average; water-year-to-date precipitation as a percent of average.

Standardized Precipitation IndexStandardized Precipitation Index

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6/10/20, 11(13 AMNIDIS Drought and Water Assessment

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Standardized Precipitation Index standardizes precipitation accumulations for a specified timeperiod into percentile rankings. Colors match the different drought categories with the U.S.Drought Monitor. 30- and 60-day SPIs focus on short-term conditions while 6- and 9-monthSPIs focus on long-term conditions. SPI data provided by High Plains Regional ClimateCenter.

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StreamflowStreamflow

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The top left image shows 7-day averaged streamflows as a percentile ranking across theUCRB. The top right image shows 7-day averaged discharge over time at three key sitesaround the UCRB: The Colorado River at the CO-UT state line; the Green River at GreenRiver, UT; and the San Juan River near Bluff, UT. All streamflow data provided by UnitedStates Geological Survey.

Surface WaterSurface Water

The top left image shows VIC modeled soil moisture as a percentile ranking. The top rightimage shows satellite-derived vegetation from the VegDRI product (which updates onMondays).

The graphs shown below are plots of reservoir volumes over the past full year and current year to date (black). The dashed line at the topof each graphic indicates the reservoir's capacity, and the background color-coded shading provides context for the range of reservoir

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levels observed over the past 30 years. The data are obtained from the Bureau of Reclamation. Some of the reservoir percentiles don't lineup at the new year due to differences in reservoir levels at the beginning of 1985 and the end of 2014. Dead storage has been subtracted.Note: Lake Granby data are obtained from the Colorado Division of Water Resources, and only goes back to the year 2000.

Evaporative DemandEvaporative Demand

The above images are of referenceevapotranspiration (ET) from CoAgMETsites across Colorado. Reference ETassumes the amount of water that willevaporate from a well-irrigated crop.Higher ET rates occur during hot, dry, andwindy conditions. Lower ET rates aremore desirable for crops. See a map oflocations for the above ET sites.

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The above images are available courtesy of NOAA’s Evaporative Demand Drought Index(EDDI). Drought classification listed is a function of the depth of reference evapotranspirationaccumulated over a given period of record with respect to a climatology of 1981-2010. Thedrought categories displayed are in line with the US Drought Monitor's Percentile RankingScheme. Data used to generate these maps come from the North American Land DataAssimilation System Phase-2 (NLDAS-2) project, which assimilates observations oftemperature, wind speed, radiation, and vapor pressure deficit. The date indicates the last dayof the period of record, and the week number indicates the window size for the period ofrecord.

TemperatureTemperature

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All images show temperature departures from average over different time periods (last 7 dayson top left; month-to-date on top right; last full month on bottom). Temperature departure mapsprovided by HPRCC ACIS.

Condition Monitoring and ImpactsCondition Monitoring and Impacts

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Map of current condition monitoring reports submitted to CoCoRaHS in the last week overlaid on thecurrent U.S. Drought Monitor depiction. Specific impacts reports from local experts listed below.

Lincoln/Elbert/El Paso

Not getting much moisture where the three counties meet. Winds started Saturday, knocking trees over. Sellingcattle from that area. No grasses for feed. NW Elbert County there was a 100 acre grass fire caused by lightning.They had a hard time getting it out.

Rocky Ford

Started raining Tuesday morning, about .20". Gale force winds, started late last week. Not seeingimprovements. Big scare is fires. Several fires around Las Animas County. 3 or 4 brush fires occurring everyday.

Walsenburg NRCS

Most land owners are selling cattle. Those not selling have been feeding all winter long and still feeding. 3 or 4fires a day. Intense winds and hot temperatures. Drizzling Tuesday morning but not amounting to much.

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Bent/Prowers

Extremely dry. Also multiple fires. Pre evacuation orders in Las Animas with fires spreading overnight. Big onenear John Martin Dam. Grass is not green and even weeds are dying. No turning cattle out to pasture. Lookslike the dead of winter.

Northern/Central UT

Really dry. Wind has been a big factor. Starting to harvest first crop of hay, more comparable to 2018 yields.Half of what last year was. Mostly on the irrigated lands. No spring moisture has had a big impact (around BoxElder). Managed grazing will need to be adjusted. Black grass bugs are a problem. Locations in Sanpete arealready out of irrigation water.

Anybody relying on snowpack is almost out of water and in dire straits. Those who pull from reservoirs areprobably still okay.

Carbon/Emery County UT

Grateful for the rain we did get. Over an inch. Not as much down south. Just wind. Utah County did get 4 daysin a row of rain. Still very dry around the state.

OutlookOutlook

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The top two images show Climate Prediction Center's Precipitation and Temperature outlooksfor 8 - 14 days. The middle image shows the Weather Prediction Center's QuantitativePrecipitation Forecast accumulation for seven days. The bottom left image shows the 3-monthprecipitation outlook from Climate Prediction Center, and the bottom right image shows theClimate Prediction Center's most recent release of the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook.

>

Summary and RecommendationsSummary and Recommendations

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Above is the most recent release of the U.S. Drought Monitor map for the UCRB region.Below shows the proposed changes for this week, with supporting text.

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Summary: June 9, 2020

Last week, the northern portions of the Intermountain West received half aninch or more of precipitation (with high elevations even getting snow). Onthe 30-day timescale, standardized precipitation index (SPIs) are a mixed bagof conditions. But the longer time scales show many negative SPIs, often lessthan -1.5, throughout Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado, with wetter SPIs inArizona and southern New Mexico.

Snowpack has mostly melted out for most locations and streamflows arenearing, or have past, their peak flows for the season. Dry soils are evidentthroughout the IMW, and VegDRI shows severe dry conditions throughoutWY, UT, and CO.

In the past week, hot temperatures and high winds really picked up, greatlyincreasing evaporative demand. Daily reference ET at our eastern plainsCoAgMET stations showed much above average anomalies over the past fewdays.

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While this week started with some cooler, wet weather, we will have a quickreturn to hot and dry conditions. Temperatures on the plains will return to the90s and there is not much precipitaiton in the 7-day forecast.

Recommendations:

Colorado/Utah:

Widespread degradations (D0 in red, D1 in orange, D2 in pink, and D3 inblack) are recommended for parts of CO and UT. Degradations were focusedon the following criteria:

WestWide Drought Tracker 1-4 month SPEIs.Less than 0.25" of precipitation in the last week.VegDRI shows severe to extreme vegetation conditions.Reports in areas of high winds and high ET, with support from EDDI.