national integrated drought information system southeast us pilot for apalachicola-...
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National Integrated Drought Information SystemSoutheast US Pilot for Apalachicola-Flint-Chattahoochee River Basin8 May 2012
Outline• Current drought status and how we got here David Zierden,
Florida Climate Center• Stream flows and ground water status
Brian McCallum, US Geological Survey• Outlook
David Zierden, FCC, FSU• Streamflow forecasts
Jeff Dobur, SE River Forecast Center• El Niño phase forecasts
Klaus Wolter, U Colorado, Climate Diagnostics CenterInternational Research Institute for Climate and Society
• Summary and discussion
Current drought status from Drought Monitor
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
Cumulative Rainfall Deficits
Past 30 days
Past 180 days
http://water.weather.gov/precip/
7-day Rainfall Totals
Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages
Current:
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Previous Month:
Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows
Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with
historical streamflow for day shown
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Current:
Previous month:
Lake Lanier Inflows
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Chestatee near Dahlonega (02333500)
Chattahoochee near Cornelia (02331600)
Current Streamflows
Chattahoochee at West Point (02339500)
Flint at Bainbridge (02356000)
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Streamflows
Apalachicola at Chattahoochee (02358000)
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Groundwater Status
http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov
Miller County, GA(Upper Floridan Aquifer)
5-Day Precipitation Forecast
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-5.shtml
7-day average Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
Precipitation Outlook
1-month
3-month (MAM)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/
U.S. Drought Outlook
Above Normal
Near Normal
Below Normal
1-Month Streamflow Forecasts
Apalachicola WatershedSoutheast River Forecast Center
Lake Lanier Inflows
Whitesburg
West Point
Columbus
WF George
Columbus
Woodruff
Blountstown
Lovejoy
Carsonville
Albany
May 8 – June 8 2012
Above Normal
Near Normal
Below Normal
3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecasts
Apalachicola WatershedSoutheast River Forecast Center
Lake Lanier Inflows
Whitesburg
West Point
Columbus
WF George
Columbus
Woodruff
Blountstown
May 8 – August 82012
Lovejoy
Carsonville
Albany
81%
10%9%
98%
1% 1%
64%24%
12%
91%
7% 2%
85%
12%3%
Multivariate ENSO ForecastAlthough ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue for the next couple of months, the latest MEI forecast suggests a surprisingly strong tilt in the odds towards La Niña later this yearSource: Klaus Wolter
Months P La Niña P El Niño
MJ 2012 27% 27%
JA 2012 47% 12%
SO 2012 73% 09%
ND 2012 75% 00%
Most models predict neutral conditions to continue through the summerAbout 40% of models forecast El Niño to develop in the fall
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/figure1.gif
Summary• Recent rains have provided some relief to short term drought, but
streamflows and groundwater levels remain critical• Rain expected in the next 7 days should be sustain crops, but will
not likely recharge reservoirs, streams, and groundwater• There is a very high likelihood that streamflows will be below
normal for the next three months• We are currently in a Neutral phase, which is expected to continue
though the summer• There are contradictory forecasts for the fall, with 2 of 5 climate
models predicting the development of El Niño and the multivariate ENSO index forecast showing more than 7 of 10 odds that La Niña will develop
• Suggestion: Because water supplies are already low, it would be prudent to prepare for another La Niña though we have some hope that El Niño will develop and bring fall and winter rains
References
SpeakersDavid Zierden, FSUBrian McCallum, USGSJeffry Dobur, SERFC
Moderator:Keith Ingramm SECC
Additional informationGeneral drought information
http://drought.gov http://www.drought.unl.edu
General climate and El Niño information http://agroclimate.org/climate/
Streamflow monitoring http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Groundwater monitoringhttp://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov
Thanks for joining us!
Next briefing:
Tuesday, May 22, 1:00 pm EDT